Future Trends Impacting Real Estate People just ain’t what they’re going to be Annimac Futurist Trend Forecaster Barry Plant National

Future Trends Impacting Real Estate

People just ain’t what they’re going to be

Annimac Futurist Trend Forecaster

www.annimac.com.au

Barry Plant National Conference Fremantle Western Australia 5th March 2007

5th March 2007 www.annimac.com.au 2

Rate of Change - exponential

Amount of change now in 1 day

grandparents had in 1 year

Younger means faster

Generational gap widening


I’m never having kids. I hear they take nine months to download.


Three Global Challenges

Climate change

Peak Oil

People change



Climate change

Global warming impacting now

Aus second most arid continent

Aus climate highly vulnerable

changing rainfall : SE Aus = 10%

changing temperatures : 2° - 4°



Peak Oil

The Big Rollover :

Demand > Supply

O&G industry : 2007 - 2012


OIL BUYERS MARKET

The Peak of World Oil Production

CHEAP & EASY-TO-EXTRACT OIL

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030

USNorth

SeaForecast oil production

Past oil production

We are here

Previous Rollovers

SELLERS MARKET

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

EXPENSIVE & HARD-TO-EXTRACT OIL

An

nu

al O

il Pro

du

ctio

n G

bb

l



People Change

Customer driven world

Product driven world shrinking

Customers demand excellence

Profiles rapidly changing


By 2020

70 % of job types then

do not exist now

Driving People Change


80 % of technology

then

is not imagined yet

Driving Change : By 2020


Japanese Robanoid 2006

Future Receptionist ? Display home hostess ?


Imagine

what some of

those

jobs might be …..


Likely jobs in next 15 years : Director of Emerging Thought Chief Zookeeper - of people Biotech Homes Consultant Home Mood Enhancement Coach Nano Technology Info Officer Chief Imagination Advisor Hacker Relations Manager Holographic Display Modeller Online Client Life Consultant


Pressure to change - why

Technology driving change

Who is driving new technologies

Not IT industry Not executives in Big Biz or Govt Not market industry researchers


Look at Generational differences

Gen gap always existed

but

Gen gap is

fast


Parallel

Universes

Kids

live

them.



Generations Baby Boomers 1945 – 60 age 45 – 60

Generation X 1960 – 75 30 - 45

DotComs 1975 – 90 15 - 30

Ferals 1990 – now to 15 annimac

Generation X 1960 – 80 25 – 45

Generation Y 1980 – now to 25 wikipedia


Baby Boomers


Baby Boomers 45 - 60

Downsizing lives

Empty nesters

Retired or part time work

Male identity from job

Questioning material status


Boomers Care


Baby Boomers 45 - 60 : Sense of community

Seek new safe experiences

Security & Health conscious

Defer to authority Love / hate change


Boomers & technology That’s the phone,

dear,

Here, try the remote

That’s the phone dear. Here try the

remote.


Impact for Barry Plant Baby Boomers 45 - 60 Winding down : leisure

indulgence Risk averse Respect rank Steady relationships Need

relationship continuity familiar experiences positive group identity structural reliability


So

Are Boomers driving change

No Yes Maybe



Generation X 1960 – 75 30 - 45

DotComs 1975 – 90 15 - 30


Generation X 1960 – 80 25 – 45



Gen Xers


Generation Xers 30 - 45

Single Childless

Net Dating

Varied lifestyles

Varied workstyles

SOHO


Gen X Singles


Generation Xers 30 - 45

Risk takers Personal journey Fast decisions

Materialism assumed

Environmental values

Defer to heroes

Expect & accept change


Gen X Lifestyle Dog


Impact for Barry Plant Gen X 30 - 45

Fast action Now Short term pitch - staged pitch Results oriented Need

choices immediacy short term involvement complete – stand alone skills oriented demand quality of experience


So

Are GenXers driving change ?

No Yes Maybe



Generation X 1960 – 75 30 - 45

DotComs 1975 – 90 15 - 30


Generation X 1960 – 80 25 – 45



DotComs


DotComs 15 – 30 ( Gen Y)

Own path Immediacy

Temporary pairing

Group socialising

Internet relationships

Wired

No home

No single careers


DotComs Relationships


DotComs 15 - 30

I.d. from activity

Multi channeled Multi

actions

Planetary group mission

Temporary deference -

usefulness

Need change Cluetrain Manifesto

www.cluetrainmanifesto.com


Impact for Barry Plant DotComs 15 - 30

Passionate – value driven Team + personal

relationships Short term fast involvement Multi channel activities Need

choices no spin very short term flexibility innovation real positive outcomes


So

Are DotComs driving change ?

No Yes Maybe



Generation X 1960 – 75 30 - 45

DotComs 1975 – 90 15 - 30


Generation X 1960 – 80 25 – 45



Ferals


Ferals 0 - 15 Wild Child

No limits No boundaries Planetary mission : to create sustainable world Wired Parallel universes Unlimited mind channels Intuitive & telepathic


Ferals Virtual World


Ferals to 15

Future jobs unimportant

Non consumers

Global i.d. from self values

No deference

Respect only when useful

Live change & ignore

barriers


Ferals


Impact for Barry Plant Ferals to 15 Expect new relationships &

things Love Virtual world Create into unknowns Influencing older gens Need

personal power trust clear values nb: super spin detectors

no rules no hindrance ICT quality access multi channel everything


So

Are Ferals driving change ?

No Yes Maybe



Barry Plant Trends Summary huge rate of change climate change & Peak Oil younger generations driving

change relationships key Work / Life styles options less governance more community power individual responsibility

! Virtual world emerging !


Facing the future with Barry Plant :


thank you www. annimac.com.au

Documents

Future Trends Impacting Real Estate People just ain’t what they’re going to be Annimac Futurist Trend Forecaster Barry Plant National