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Future Perspective - June 2010
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July 2010
CORPORATE
RESPONSIBILITY/CONSUMER:RESPONSIBLE LUXURY
The movement towards 'responsible luxury' is
gathering force, as companies come to recognise
the advantage of talking publicly about their new-
found ethical credentials.
Mother nature is the new fashion icon
➔The difficult economy and a fundamental shift in the
market for luxury goods are forcing an industry that
worships names like Chanel and Versace to
embrace a different icon: Mother Nature.
➔ Over the past year, many of the world's best-known
luxury labels have started to introduce eco-friendly
Going green is a luxury
➔ There has been talk lately about how going green
is itself a luxury: what people want during a
recession is cheap goods, whether or not they are
the most environmentally friendly products
available.
➔ There is a counter-trend too: the UK industry self-
regulatory bodies the Committee of Advertising
Practice (CAP) and Broadcast CAP (BCAP) have
revised their codes to clamp down on
“greenwashing”. They said absolute claims of
environmental benefits “must be supported by a
high level of substantiation” without omitting
“significant information”. “Green” claims must
also cover the full life cycle of a product and
recognise areas where scientists’ opinions are
divided. The Codes, due to come into effect in
September 2010, will be administered by the
Advertising Standards Authority (ASA).
• In order to have credibility in the green arena,
luxury brands need to be hyper transparent
about their “back story.” Those brands that
can show that the path from production to
marketing and selling is a green one will gain a
huge amount of traction.
• Research shows that there is a clear link
between defining and communicating a
COMMUNICATIONS TAKEOUT
luxury labels have started to introduce eco-friendly
products, snap up brands that tout their social
responsibility and weave environmental themes
into their advertising and marketing.
➔ Recently, French luxury conglomerate Moët
Hennessy Louis Vuitton (LVMH) took a stake in
Edun, an organic-clothing company founded by the
singer Bono and his wife. In 2004, it conducted a
"carbon inventory" to gauge its impact on
greenhouse-gas emissions. Afterwards it cut back
on corporate travel and air shipment of goods.
➔ Long time eco-friendly designer, Stella McCartney is
finally being recognized for her steadfast
commitment to cruelty-free, green luxury fashion.
➔ Other companies have begun to advertise initiatives
they took years ago to promote resource
conservation.
Advertising Standards Authority (ASA).
➔ On the other hand, the market for luxury goods is
a tiny market. So how much effect can greening it
really have? In terms of promoting
environmentalism as a trend, the greening of
luxury brands has to be a good thing. After all,
there are plenty of people out there who will
follow faithfully whatever example their favourite
celebrity sets.
➔ It's also worth considering that environmental
promises made by high-end brands may be among
the most reliable. They've presumably got the
resources required to do very careful sourcing, in
order to make sure that the organic, low-carbon,
union-made, fair-trade cotton that goes into their
$200 t-shirts really is what it claims to be. What’s
more, it is clear that these brands would seriously
damage their cachet if they didn't live up to their
eco-rhetoric.
between defining and communicating a
corporate purpose and financial performance.
Brands should develop and publish a clear
Corporate Responsibility policy, and look to set
up interaction with key stakeholders and
consumers.
• Any eco labeling should be Evidence-Based and
preferably have 3rd party endorsement. NGOs
have called for sustainability certification
schemes to incorporate rigorous, independent
evaluation into their design.
• Co-branding or partnering with an appropriate
NGO – after quantifying NGO vulnerability - is
worth investigating.
READ:
WWF DEEPER LUXURY REPORT
http://bit.ly/d5yQF
B2B/B2C/TECHNOLOGY:SPONSORSHIP TRENDS
The rise of social media will inevitably have a major
impact and be a key driver in the globalisation of
sponsorship. Whilst the economic downturn may not
have an impact overall, there is a need for vigilance in
the choice and management of brands. The industry
is becoming increasingly evidence based.
The drive for data and accountability
➔ Twenty years ago only a handful of sponsorships
were purchased based on sound marketing
rationale with an expectation of fulfilling set
objectives.
➔ Today, rising prices have driven most sponsorships
to be purchased in conjunction with some form of
• Companies that can get ahead of the curve
and build in social/mobile media activation
to sponsorship deals will prosper.
• Similarly, no sponsorship deal should be
negotiated without tight Evidence-Based
performance measurements in place.
COMMUNICATIONS TAKEOUT➔ In addition because of the increasing number
of sportsmen/women communicating directly
via Social Media there needs to be very clear
policies governing that interaction to prevent
potential embarrassment to sponsors.
Relatively recession proof
➔ In spite of gloomy predictions about "the
death of corporate entertainment" it is
expected that the present global recession
will have no long-term impact on the
sponsorship market. The sponsorship industry
in Europe has followed global trends in its
growth rate this decade with expenditure on
rights fees growing from an estimated €5.6
billion in 2000, to €7.7 billion in 2007.
➔ B2B corporate entertainment will return once to be purchased in conjunction with some form of
independent research or goals.
➔ Research techniques have advanced to the point
where sponsorship ROI can be measured with the
same accuracy as advertising. It is likely that more
sophisticated sponsors will demand performance
clauses based on such research.
Impact of social media on activation & globalisation
➔ Sports fans are rapidly moving across to social
media (Facebook/Twitter/blogs) and mobile media
(iPhone apps) because these media offer even
greater immediacy and ease of access than
traditional websites.
➔What is more, the growth in digital media - which
is not subject to any national broadcasting rights -
will only accelerate the globalisation of the
sponsorship industry.
• Social media is in some ways a friend and a
foe. As privacy boundaries blur, there is more
risk of sensitive information being revealed.
To counter this possibility, policies and
guidelines on the use of social media need to
be very clearly communicated and crisis
plans should be in place.
VISIT:
B-M’s TOTAL SPONSORSHIP WEBSITE
http://www.totalsponsorship.co.uk/
➔ B2B corporate entertainment will return once
the glare of the public spotlight has passed
elsewhere, and the financial sector has
recovered fully.
➔With regard to pricing, history suggests that
pent-up demand to spend as a downturn
ends tends to actually increase sponsorship
prices somewhat, through competition for
the better deals.
When sponsorship turns sour
➔ The increasing incidence of issues
surrounding celebrities and their sponsors
[need we mention Tiger Woods?] highlights
the need for companies to have robust crisis
plans in place to deal with communications
should the celebrity/brand suddenly develop
issues that could impact the sponsor’s
reputation.
ORGANISATION/TECHNOLOGY:THE AGE OF CYBER WARFARE
Threats of cyber warfare have been hyped for
decades but a report by McAfee contains proof that
cyber attack preparation is definitely happening.
Cyber Cold War
➔Major countries and nation-states are engaged in a
"Cyber Cold War," amassing cyber weapons,
conducting espionage, and testing networks in
preparation for using the Internet to conduct war.
➔ Key countries gearing up for cyber offensives are
the U.S., Israel, Russia, China, and France.
➔ So far nations have been reluctant to use those
capabilities because of the likelihood that a big
➔ There have been earlier attacks that smack of
cyber warfare too. Estonian government and
commercial sites suffered debilitating denial-of-
service attacks in 2007 and in 2008 sites in
Georgia were attacked during the South Ossetia
war, orchestrated by civilian attackers.
Cyber warfare will soon be a reality
➔ Over the next 20 to 30 years, cyber attacks will
increasingly become a component of war. If
networks become ever more pervasive and
unprotected cyber war operations could even
stand alone.
Google Attack: “Digital Commercial Pearl Harbour”
➔ There are increasing concerns about financial
Tips for staying as safe as possible online:
• Know who you’re dealing with
• Keep web browsers and operating systems
up-to-date by setting them to automatically
update
• Back up important files
• Protect children online
• Use a full suite of updated security tools as a
first line of defence
COMMUNICATIONS TAKEOUT
capabilities because of the likelihood that a big
cyber attack could do harm to their own country
due to the way in which the world is so highly
interconnected these days.
➔ Because pinpointing the source of cyber attacks is
usually difficult, if not impossible, the motivations
can only be speculated upon, making the whole
cyber war debate something of an intellectual
exercise at this point.
➔ The July 4 2009 denial-of-service attacks on Web
sites in the U.S. and South Korea could have been a
test by a foreign entity to see if flooding South
Korean networks and communications between the
U.S. and South Korea would disrupt the ability of
the U.S. military in South Korea to communicate
with military leaders in Washington, D.C., and the
Pacific Command in Hawaii.
➔ There are increasing concerns about financial
losses and security breaches in the commercial
world too, especially after Google was targeted by
cyber attacks from China. This “digital commercial
Pearl Harbour” has dramatically raised awareness
of this threat to businesses.
Every computer user plays important role
➔ There are 32,000 suspected cyber-attacks every 24
hours.
➔ Reports are that almost 90% of all email today is
SPAM. Every computer user plays an important
role in using the Internet safely and securely by
protecting themselves and the networks they are
on.
.
first line of defence
• Use wireless devices and networks securely
• Use hard-to-decipher passwords (long with
numbers and symbols)
We all need to employ the same judgment we
use in the “off-line” world by remembering
three letters: WWW
Whenever you are asked for information
online, make sure to ask yourself:
1.Who is asking or going to see this
information?
2.What is the value of the information I am
being asked to share?
3.Why do they need to see it?
READ:
7 PRACTICES FOR COMPUTER SECURITY
http://bit.ly/bK6s1t
ORGANISATION/CRISIS:BEWARE THE BLACK SWAN
Black Swan is a highly topical term that is used in
horizon scanning and future planning scenarios.
The origin of the term Black Swan
➔ The "Theory of Black Swan Events" was developed
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain the
disproportionate role of high-impact, hard-to-
predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm
of normal expectations in history, science, and
technology.
➔ Taleb regards almost all major scientific
discoveries, historical events, and artistic
accomplishments as Black Swans — undirected
and unpredicted. He cites the rise of the Internet,
Recent and Future Black Swans
➔ The eruption of the Icelandic volcano
Eyjafjallajökull was a surprise to most of us and
had a major impact on air travel. After it occurred
plenty of experts said they could have told us it
was going to happen. Airlines are now all vying
with each other to produce volcanic ash detectors
to prevent the repeat of the havoc that caused
wide scale grounding of flights .
➔ Since there has been oil-drilling in the Gulf for
more than 40 years, with over 30,000 oil wells,
BP's Deepwater Horizon oil spill certainly qualifies
as a Black Swan event.
➔ As per the previous item on cyber warfare, data
security products, such as antivirus software, can't
protect you against Black Swan viruses, i.e., the
ones that are out in the wild but haven't been
identified or found yet.
COMMUNICATIONS TAKEOUT
• Taleb believes that more disasters along the
lines of the Gulf of Mexico are waiting down
the line and that we are woefully unprepared
to predict their occurrence in advance or to
deal with them once they happen. He blames
an overreliance on theory for some of the
most seemingly insoluble problems troubling
us today.
• It is essential that companies confront their and unpredicted. He cites the rise of the Internet,
the personal computer, World War I, and the
September 11 attacks as examples of Black Swan
Events.
➔ Criteria for a Black Swan event :
oThe event is a surprise (to the observer).
oThe event has a major impact.
oAfter the fact, the event is rationalized by
hindsight, as if it had been expected.
When is a Black Swan a Black Turkey?
➔ There has been much debate as to whether the
financial crisis 2007-2009 was a Black Swan or
simply a Black Turkey : an event that is
everywhere in the data—it happens again and
again —but to which one is wilfully blind.
identified or found yet.
Learn how to turn the Black Swans White
➔ Taleb’s advice is not to attempt to predict Black
Swan Events, but to build robustness against
negative ones that occur and work on exploiting
positive ones. Taleb contends that banks and
trading firms are very vulnerable to hazardous
Black Swan Events and are exposed to losses
beyond that predicted by their defective models.
➔ Taleb states that a Black Swan Event depends on
the observer. What may be a Black Swan surprise
for a turkey is not a Black Swan surprise for its
butcher—hence the objective should be to "avoid
being the turkey" by identifying areas of
vulnerability in order to "turn the Black Swans
white".
•doomsday scenarios and build crisis planning
around them.
• What is Your Company’s Deepwater Horizon?
READ: TEN PRINCIPLES FOR A BLACK SWAN-
PROOF WORLD http://bit.ly/9F2UG7
CONTACT
To request further information, give feedback
or suggest a future topic for the newsletter,
please contact:
Elaine Cameron
Strategic Research & Trend Analysis, EMEA
And don’t forget to follow on Twitter:
http://www.twitter.com/FUTUREPersp