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Possibilities to support European Police Co-operation Genval, November 6, 1998
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Future Perspective in Information Technology:Future Perspective in Information Technology:
Possibilities to support European Possibilities to support European Police Co-operationPolice Co-operation
Prof. Dr. H.J. van den HerikProf. Dr. H.J. van den Herik
Dr. L.A. PluggeDr. L.A. Plugge
Universiteit MaastrichtUniversiteit Maastricht
MATRIKS - Computer ScienceMATRIKS - Computer Science
The NetherlandsThe Netherlands
Conference:Across Schengen Borders
Genval, November 6, 1998Château du Lac, 11:45-12:10 hours
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What are the ideas?What are the ideas?What is the lecture?What is the lecture?
Ideas on the Ideas on the futurefuture technology technology Ideas on Ideas on applicationsapplications of this technology of this technology Ideas on the Ideas on the acceptanceacceptance of the applications of the applications
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What are the ideas?What are the ideas?What is the lecture?What is the lecture?
Ideas on applications of this technologyIdeas on applications of this technology
Ideas on the Ideas on the futurefuture technology technology
Ideas on the acceptance of the applicationsIdeas on the acceptance of the applications
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Can ComputersCan Computers Calculate?Calculate? (Zuse)(Zuse) Play Chess?Play Chess? (Shannon)(Shannon) Think?Think? (Turing)(Turing) Learn?Learn? (Samuel)(Samuel) Act as a psychotherapist?Act as a psychotherapist? (Weizenbaum)(Weizenbaum) Decide a court case?Decide a court case? (Van den Herik)(Van den Herik) Act as a wise policeman?Act as a wise policeman?
– a police officer?a police officer?
– a police constable?a police constable?
Act as a philosopher?Act as a philosopher? Believe?Believe?
WHERE IS THE BORDERLINE?WHERE IS THE BORDERLINE?
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Technology and Future TechnologyTechnology and Future Technology
MechanizationMechanization19501950
ComputerizationComputerization
19701970Information handlingInformation handling
20002000IntelligentIntelligentE-commerceE-commerce
E-commerceE-commerce
20052005Agent TechnologyAgent Technology
20152015
Ant TechnologyAnt Technology
19901990IntelligentIntelligentprogramsprograms
Communication amongCommunication amongcomputerscomputers
(ICT)(ICT)
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The Development of CommunicationThe Development of Communication
A single computerA single computer19501950
19621962 Communication between two computers (MIT)Communication between two computers (MIT)
ARPA-NET: 12 computersARPA-NET: 12 computers19691969
19801980 ARPA-NET: 60 computersARPA-NET: 60 computers
In Europe: EARNIn Europe: EARN19851985
19891989 INTERNET starts: 100,000 computersINTERNET starts: 100,000 computers
Continued...Continued...
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The Development of CommunicationThe Development of Communication
INTERNET starts: 100,000 computersINTERNET starts: 100,000 computers19891989
19911991 500,000500,000
1.3 million1.3 million19931993
19961996 29.7 million29.7 million
~ 100 million ( =10~ 100 million ( =108 8 ))19981998
20052005 Around a billion (Am.) ( =10Around a billion (Am.) ( =109 9 ))ExpectationExpectation
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How do we Communicate?How do we Communicate?
Single processorSingle processor TwoTwo
Four (an example)Four (an example)EightEight
16 (4-cube)16 (4-cube)
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256 Node Binary Hypercube256 Node Binary Hypercube
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Issues of CommunicationIssues of Communication
TechnologicalTechnological FinancialFinancial EconomicalEconomical LegalLegal PoliticalPolitical CulturalCultural
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What do we Communicate?What do we Communicate?(In 1998)(In 1998)
DataDatae.g., on cross-border communicatione.g., on cross-border communication
InformationInformatione.g., on person looking for asylume.g., on person looking for asylum
Visual informationVisual informatione.g., pictures of persons wanted, fingerprintse.g., pictures of persons wanted, fingerprints
KnowledgeKnowledgee.g., on the behaviour of football supporterse.g., on the behaviour of football supporters
etc.etc.
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What can we Communicate?What can we Communicate?
Reading (text)Reading (text) Sounding (voice)Sounding (voice) Sensing (waves)Sensing (waves) Smelling (perfume)Smelling (perfume) Tasting (salt)Tasting (salt)
Humans have five senses.Humans have five senses.Hence, we may use computers for Hence, we may use computers for
Multi Media Multi Media
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EMMI is only a startEMMI is only a startProgress in research is as followsProgress in research is as follows
Graphical interfacesGraphical interfaces
VisualizationVisualization
SonificationSonification
OlfactorizationOlfactorization
FlavorizationFlavorization
SensibilizationSensibilization
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Two Important Research ProjectsTwo Important Research Projects
Controlling the computer by speechControlling the computer by speech
Automatic Translation, Automatic Translation,
i.e., communication by a computer in one’s own i.e., communication by a computer in one’s own
languagelanguage
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The Role of the European UnionThe Role of the European Union
ESPRIT projectsESPRIT projects– a.o. EMMI and Linguaneta.o. EMMI and Linguanet
ESPRIT transforms into ISPESPRIT transforms into ISP
IInformation nformation SSociety ociety PProgrammerogramme
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What are the ideas?What are the ideas?What is the lecture?What is the lecture?
Ideas on Ideas on applicationsapplications of this technology of this technology
Ideas on the future technologyIdeas on the future technology
Ideas on the acceptance of the applicationsIdeas on the acceptance of the applications
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Application of the Agent TechnologyApplication of the Agent Technology
Communication between front office Communication between front office
and back officeand back office
Communication is controlled by speechCommunication is controlled by speech
Each policeman has a personal agent Each policeman has a personal agent
(a computer) for communication(a computer) for communication
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The Future PracticeThe Future Practice
Any patrolman has a virtual communication line Any patrolman has a virtual communication line
with the police centrewith the police centre
Any patrolman has a speech-controlled agentAny patrolman has a speech-controlled agent
The agents can communicate among each otherThe agents can communicate among each other
(searching for information; calling for help)(searching for information; calling for help)
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A Future Example (1)A Future Example (1) A male patrolman stops someoneA male patrolman stops someone He activates a small video camera in his He activates a small video camera in his
policeman’s cappoliceman’s cap He asks the person: name, address, and He asks the person: name, address, and
residenceresidence He requests his agent to check the He requests his agent to check the
information receivedinformation received
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A Future Example (2)A Future Example (2)
The agent recognizes the foreign addressThe agent recognizes the foreign address The agent communicates to another agentThe agent communicates to another agent The response is in within 10-20 secondsThe response is in within 10-20 seconds The response is communicated to the The response is communicated to the
patrolman via an earplugpatrolman via an earplug
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A Future Example (3)A Future Example (3)
The person seems to be knownThe person seems to be known A fingerprint would give a definitive answerA fingerprint would give a definitive answer The patrolman requests the person to place The patrolman requests the person to place
the right thumb on the photoelectric cell of his the right thumb on the photoelectric cell of his mobile communicatormobile communicator
The agent communicates the informationThe agent communicates the information The stopped person understands what happens The stopped person understands what happens
and fleesand flees
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A Future Example (3a)A Future Example (3a)
The person seems to be knownThe person seems to be known The DNA structure would give a definitive The DNA structure would give a definitive
answeranswer The patrolman requests the person to spit in The patrolman requests the person to spit in
a small bowla small bowl The agent communicates the informationThe agent communicates the information The stopped person understands what The stopped person understands what
happens and fleeshappens and flees
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A Future Example (3b)A Future Example (3b) The person seems to be knownThe person seems to be known The DNA structure would give a definitive The DNA structure would give a definitive
answeranswer The patrolman courteously takes a hair from The patrolman courteously takes a hair from
the shoulder of the person’s coat and puts it in the shoulder of the person’s coat and puts it in the agent’s input devicethe agent’s input device
The agent communicates the informationThe agent communicates the information The stopped person understand what happens The stopped person understand what happens
and fleesand flees
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A Future Example (4)A Future Example (4) The patrolman speaks to his agent:The patrolman speaks to his agent:
““I would like to have support for pursuit!”I would like to have support for pursuit!” The agent knows the precise location of the The agent knows the precise location of the
patrolmanpatrolman The agent calls the neighbour agentsThe agent calls the neighbour agents They decide whether their patrolman (their They decide whether their patrolman (their
boss!) can be called up for supportboss!) can be called up for support
And so onAnd so on
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Some RemarksSome Remarks All technology suggested is already available, although All technology suggested is already available, although
not in the combination described herenot in the combination described here The scene provides new technology, but also new The scene provides new technology, but also new
management: the agent decidesmanagement: the agent decides Who should decide on the acceptance?Who should decide on the acceptance?
– TechnologyTechnology
– National AuthoritiesNational Authorities
– The European UnionThe European Union
Who should provide (pay for) the necessary Who should provide (pay for) the necessary infrastructure?infrastructure?
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What are the ideas?What are the ideas?What is the lecture?What is the lecture?
Ideas on applications of this technologyIdeas on applications of this technology
Ideas on the future technologyIdeas on the future technology
Ideas on the Ideas on the acceptanceacceptance of the applications of the applications
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The Acceptance of the ApplicationsThe Acceptance of the Applications
The acceptance requiresThe acceptance requires
A shift of mindA shift of mind
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ObstaclesObstacles
80 percent of the highest police officers do not 80 percent of the highest police officers do not have any feeling for modern technologyhave any feeling for modern technology
There are many political barriersThere are many political barriers Adequate infrastructure costs a large amount of Adequate infrastructure costs a large amount of
moneymoney The patrolmen have their own cultureThe patrolmen have their own culture
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What do we mean withWhat do we mean with“a shift of mind”?“a shift of mind”?
Let me present an exampleLet me present an example
from my beloved research domainfrom my beloved research domain
(computer) chess(computer) chess
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The Power of a RepresentationThe Power of a RepresentationConsider the following problemConsider the following problem
BeginBegin EndEnd
What is the shortest path to changeWhat is the shortest path to changethe black and white Knights?the black and white Knights?
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SolutionSolutionStep 1: Number the SquaresStep 1: Number the Squares
1010
88
55
2211
99
66
33
77
44
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Step 2: Determine the Nearest Neighbour Step 2: Determine the Nearest Neighbour Diagram for the Knight MoveDiagram for the Knight Move
1010
88
55
2211
99
66
33
77
44
(which squares are neighbours as seen by a Knight)(which squares are neighbours as seen by a Knight)
FromFrom
We arrive atWe arrive at
1010 88 552211 9966
33
77 44
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Step 3: Determine the Starting PositionStep 3: Determine the Starting Position
and the End Positionand the End Position
WW ZZWW
ZZ
ZZ WWZZ
WW
Step 4: Recognize that this is a Shunting Problem Step 4: Recognize that this is a Shunting Problem (with square 3 as a side track)(with square 3 as a side track)
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Step 5: The solution is now easyStep 5: The solution is now easy
WW ZZWW
ZZ
Shortest Path:Shortest Path:40 moves40 moves
ZZ WWWW
ZZ
ZZ WW
ZZ
WW
ZZ WWZZ
WW
ZZ
WW WW ZZ
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AI ApplicationsAI Applications
Routing (e.g., on Internet)Routing (e.g., on Internet) Financial TransactionsFinancial Transactions TelematicsTelematics Process ControlProcess Control Traffic (airplanes, trains, cars)Traffic (airplanes, trains, cars) Legal Knowledge-Based SystemsLegal Knowledge-Based Systems Multi Media Information SystemsMulti Media Information Systems The Patrolman’s AgentThe Patrolman’s Agent Policy-Supporting AgentsPolicy-Supporting Agents Intelligent Management SystemsIntelligent Management Systems
From:From:Via:Via:To:To:
ChessChessShuntingShunting
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Your “last” question:Your “last” question:
Okay, if we accept the shift of Okay, if we accept the shift of mind, are all technological mind, are all technological problems solved by now?problems solved by now?
The answer is: NO.The answer is: NO.
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Six Fundamental ProblemsSix Fundamental Problems1.1. What precisely is:What precisely is:
– KnowledgeKnowledge
– IntelligenceIntelligence
– Normative behaviour (Conduct, Competence)Normative behaviour (Conduct, Competence)
2.2. How do we measure reliability of knowledge?How do we measure reliability of knowledge?
3.3. How do we store (represent) reliability (in a flexible How do we store (represent) reliability (in a flexible way)?way)?
4.4. Reasoning with uncertain and incomplete knowledge.Reasoning with uncertain and incomplete knowledge.
5. Reasoning with situation semantics.5. Reasoning with situation semantics.
6.6. How can we model normative behaviour?How can we model normative behaviour?
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A Perspective for the Next Ten YearsA Perspective for the Next Ten Years
19991999 International Telebanking International Telebanking (increasing criminal actions)(increasing criminal actions)
20002000 Tele education at some universitiesTele education at some universities
20012001 Tele education at the police schoolsTele education at the police schools
20022002 Tele shoppingTele shopping
2003 2003 Homologizing of police forces (a start)Homologizing of police forces (a start)
20042004 All police databases in European Union are connectedAll police databases in European Union are connected
20052005 Controlled exchange of information Controlled exchange of information tele working tele working
20092009 A patrolman is equipped with an agentA patrolman is equipped with an agent
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Current ObstaclesCurrent Obstacles
Differences inDifferences in– InfrastructureInfrastructure
– CultureCulture
– LawLaw
– EducationEducation
And lack of moneyAnd lack of money
42
Three ConclusionsThree Conclusions1.1. The advances in knowledge engineering have an The advances in knowledge engineering have an
exponential growthexponential growth
2.2. The future performances of intelligent The future performances of intelligent
computers are greatly underestimated by almost computers are greatly underestimated by almost
all people, prominent researchers among themall people, prominent researchers among them
3.3. The police officers of the European Union are The police officers of the European Union are
privileged to have been informed on the privileged to have been informed on the
advances of technology in such an early stageadvances of technology in such an early stage