LaurentFabius,hisforeignminister,likenedhimtoaninsignificantwildstrawberry.Butthe
leaderwhoemergedaftertheParisattacksofJanuary7th9thisofadifferentstaturetothe
politicianwhohad,untilthen,beentheFifthRepublicsmostunpopularpresident.Mr
Hollandeseemstohavegrownintoarolethathadeludedhim.
SincedeGaulle,theFrenchhavehadimpossiblyhighexpectationsoftheirpresident.Hemust
beexceptionalandordinary,amonarchandamanofthepeople,abovepoliticsbutlegitimate
inhisparty,incommandofdiplomacyandarmiesaswellasdomesticaffairs.Andheshould
embodyFrance,withaneleganceandauthoritythatinspireprideandrespect.
UntilnowMrHollandehad,toputitpolitely,struggled.Hisescapadesonamotorcycleayear
ago,visitingonewomanwhilelivingwithanother,didnothelp.Nordidhisearly
mismanagementoftheeconomyorhisfailuretomakegoodonrecurrentpledgestobringdown
unemployment.Asuccessionofministerialresignations,oversecretSwissbankaccountsor
failuretopayincometax,underminedclaimstoexemplarybehaviour.Thepoliticianwho
promisedtobeanormalpresidentwasoverwhelminglytoomuchso.
Theterrorattackshaverevealedanewleader.MrHollandedisplayedalltherightinstincts,
rushingtothesiteofthemurdersevenastheassassinswereontheloose.Hebehavedwith
authorityduringthemanhunt,aswellaswithdignityandempathyinceremoniestohonourthe
dead.Hisapprovalratinghasjumpedby21points,to40%,accordingtoapollbyIfop.Fully
60%saidhehaddefendedthecountrysinterestswell.ManuelValls,hisprimeminister,jumped
17pointsto61%.BernardCazeneuve,thequietlysolidinteriorminister,alsoenjoyedaleapin
thepolls.
Theresultisanewlyreinforcedleft,whichhasalsobenefitedfromtheuncommonrestraintof
itsopponents.Onsecuritymattersthereisaspiritofnationalresponsibility.NicolasSarkozy,the
oppositionUMPleaderandformerpresident,sentMrCazeneuvenewproposals,including
deprivingthoseconvictedofterrorismofFrenchnationalityorcivilrights.Promisingmore
moneyfortheintelligenceandsecurityservices,MrVallssaidhewouldconsidertheseideas,
eventhoughsomehavebeencriticisedwithinhisparty.
Mostastonishinghasbeentheappropriationbytheleftofpatrioticvaluesandtheflag,usually
apreserveoftheright.TheFrenchlefthaslongshiedawayfromconceptslikeauthorityand
nationalpride,andisunfamiliarwiththeideaofcombiningthemwithtoughnessonsecurity.
Butthemixmatchestodaysmood,aswellasMrVallsspersonalpoliticalbrand,robbingthe
rightofitsoldmonopoly.
Theleftsgainsmaynotlast,however.Thereisstillnosignofaneconomicupturn,and
unemploymentremainsstubbornlyhigh.Evennow,only24%ofpollrespondentsthinkMr
Hollandeisdoingagoodjobontheeconomy.Socialistsrecallthatin1991FranoisMitterrands
popularity,boostedbyFrancesparticipationinthefirstGulfwar,droppedfrom65%in
Februaryto31%bytheendoftheyear.MrHollandemayhaverescuedhisreputation.Butthe
SocialistsstillfaceheavylossestotheUMPatdepartmentalelectionsinMarch,andregional
electionsinDecember.
AndthenthereisthethreatofMarineLePen,leaderofthepopulistNationalFront.Manysay
shemishandledherresponsetotheterrorattacks.ShewasnotinvitedtotheParisfreedom
marchandchosenottogo,whichmadeherlooklikeamarginalfigurewhohadfailedtobe
detoxifiedandtakenseriously.This,combinedwithatougherlinefromthegovernmenton
radicalIslam,couldweakenher.
Yetsuchviewsmaybecomplacent.TheNationalFrontcametopinthe2014European
elections.ManyofitsvotersdidnottakepartintheParismarch.Meanwhile,inheavilyMuslim
areas,therewere200reportsofdisruptioninschools,mostlyoftheminutessilenceinhonour
ofthe17dead.LatentIslamophobialurks.AymericChauprade,aNationalFrontleader,put
outavideosayingFranceisatwaragainstMuslims.MsLePencondemnedthis,andis
carefultosingleoutradicalIslam.Butinpopulistpolitics,whatmatterstohersilentminorityis
oftenwhatisnotsaid.Shemadetacticalmistakes,saysoneSocialistminister.Buther
supportismuchmoresolidthanyoumightimagine.
Fromtheprintedition:Europe
