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French politics After Janvier Terror makes the president a statesman, but his new popularity may not last Jan 24th 2015 | PARIS | From the print edition HIS Socialist colleagues once called François Hollande “Flanby”, after a wobbly caramel pudding.

French Politics_ After Janvier _ the Economist

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  • Frenchpolitics

    AfterJanvierTerrormakesthepresidentastatesman,buthisnewpopularitymaynotlast

    Jan24th2015|PARIS| Fromtheprintedition

    HIS

    SocialistcolleaguesoncecalledFranoisHollandeFlanby,afterawobblycaramelpudding.

    http://www.economist.com/http://www.economist.com/printedition/2015-01-24

  • LaurentFabius,hisforeignminister,likenedhimtoaninsignificantwildstrawberry.Butthe

    leaderwhoemergedaftertheParisattacksofJanuary7th9thisofadifferentstaturetothe

    politicianwhohad,untilthen,beentheFifthRepublicsmostunpopularpresident.Mr

    Hollandeseemstohavegrownintoarolethathadeludedhim.

    SincedeGaulle,theFrenchhavehadimpossiblyhighexpectationsoftheirpresident.Hemust

    beexceptionalandordinary,amonarchandamanofthepeople,abovepoliticsbutlegitimate

    inhisparty,incommandofdiplomacyandarmiesaswellasdomesticaffairs.Andheshould

    embodyFrance,withaneleganceandauthoritythatinspireprideandrespect.

    UntilnowMrHollandehad,toputitpolitely,struggled.Hisescapadesonamotorcycleayear

    ago,visitingonewomanwhilelivingwithanother,didnothelp.Nordidhisearly

    mismanagementoftheeconomyorhisfailuretomakegoodonrecurrentpledgestobringdown

    unemployment.Asuccessionofministerialresignations,oversecretSwissbankaccountsor

    failuretopayincometax,underminedclaimstoexemplarybehaviour.Thepoliticianwho

    promisedtobeanormalpresidentwasoverwhelminglytoomuchso.

    Theterrorattackshaverevealedanewleader.MrHollandedisplayedalltherightinstincts,

    rushingtothesiteofthemurdersevenastheassassinswereontheloose.Hebehavedwith

    authorityduringthemanhunt,aswellaswithdignityandempathyinceremoniestohonourthe

    dead.Hisapprovalratinghasjumpedby21points,to40%,accordingtoapollbyIfop.Fully

    60%saidhehaddefendedthecountrysinterestswell.ManuelValls,hisprimeminister,jumped

    17pointsto61%.BernardCazeneuve,thequietlysolidinteriorminister,alsoenjoyedaleapin

    thepolls.

    Theresultisanewlyreinforcedleft,whichhasalsobenefitedfromtheuncommonrestraintof

    itsopponents.Onsecuritymattersthereisaspiritofnationalresponsibility.NicolasSarkozy,the

    oppositionUMPleaderandformerpresident,sentMrCazeneuvenewproposals,including

    deprivingthoseconvictedofterrorismofFrenchnationalityorcivilrights.Promisingmore

    moneyfortheintelligenceandsecurityservices,MrVallssaidhewouldconsidertheseideas,

    eventhoughsomehavebeencriticisedwithinhisparty.

    Mostastonishinghasbeentheappropriationbytheleftofpatrioticvaluesandtheflag,usually

    apreserveoftheright.TheFrenchlefthaslongshiedawayfromconceptslikeauthorityand

    nationalpride,andisunfamiliarwiththeideaofcombiningthemwithtoughnessonsecurity.

    Butthemixmatchestodaysmood,aswellasMrVallsspersonalpoliticalbrand,robbingthe

    rightofitsoldmonopoly.

    Theleftsgainsmaynotlast,however.Thereisstillnosignofaneconomicupturn,and

    unemploymentremainsstubbornlyhigh.Evennow,only24%ofpollrespondentsthinkMr

  • Hollandeisdoingagoodjobontheeconomy.Socialistsrecallthatin1991FranoisMitterrands

    popularity,boostedbyFrancesparticipationinthefirstGulfwar,droppedfrom65%in

    Februaryto31%bytheendoftheyear.MrHollandemayhaverescuedhisreputation.Butthe

    SocialistsstillfaceheavylossestotheUMPatdepartmentalelectionsinMarch,andregional

    electionsinDecember.

    AndthenthereisthethreatofMarineLePen,leaderofthepopulistNationalFront.Manysay

    shemishandledherresponsetotheterrorattacks.ShewasnotinvitedtotheParisfreedom

    marchandchosenottogo,whichmadeherlooklikeamarginalfigurewhohadfailedtobe

    detoxifiedandtakenseriously.This,combinedwithatougherlinefromthegovernmenton

    radicalIslam,couldweakenher.

    Yetsuchviewsmaybecomplacent.TheNationalFrontcametopinthe2014European

    elections.ManyofitsvotersdidnottakepartintheParismarch.Meanwhile,inheavilyMuslim

    areas,therewere200reportsofdisruptioninschools,mostlyoftheminutessilenceinhonour

    ofthe17dead.LatentIslamophobialurks.AymericChauprade,aNationalFrontleader,put

    outavideosayingFranceisatwaragainstMuslims.MsLePencondemnedthis,andis

    carefultosingleoutradicalIslam.Butinpopulistpolitics,whatmatterstohersilentminorityis

    oftenwhatisnotsaid.Shemadetacticalmistakes,saysoneSocialistminister.Buther

    supportismuchmoresolidthanyoumightimagine.

    Fromtheprintedition:Europe