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Opportunities and ChallengesSingapore Energy Futures

A Macro, Centrist, Non-technical View

Green Drinks – September 2010

Presented by Chris Tobias, Lead Strategist

Quick Outline

What we’re talking about

1) An Brief Introduction to Oil2) Peak Oil3) Other issues at play4) Social Implications5) Reframing the Problem6) Be Ready7) Conclusion

Historical backgroundA Brief Introduction to Oil

-First “discovered” by Edwin Drake in 1859; drilled first well in western Pennsylvania, capturing 15 barrels per day

-Exploration and exploitation grew rapidly in the USA and beyond

-Oil became the mainstay of the Industrial Revolution

-Oil is responsible for the growth of the economy and human population, as never before, humans had an accessible source of energy to draw on for a wide range of uses

-2009 oil consumption = 84.9 million barrels per day

(IEA)

Where and how much?Oil Consumption:

(US Energy Information

Administration)

Why is it so important?A Brief Introduction to Oil

OIL =

-Oil, like all fossil fuel energy sources, is a limited resource

-Oil, by default of the Industrial Revolution, is key for all aspects of human life as we know it

-There is a strong demand for oil amongst the world’s nearly 7 billion people

-Oil underpins the global economy in every respect.

It’s in Everything We DoOil Uses:

Food Example:-For every 1 calorie of food you eat, it takes roughly 10-15+ calories of fossil fuel energy to produce. (.042 MJ)

-Based on an average 2500 calorie diet, that’s 30,000 calories of fossil fuel energy eaten daily (125.58 MJ)

-It takes 1500+ litres* of oil to feed the average American annually. (*more if you eat meat)(Hendrickson 1996)

Why? Planting, fertilising, harvesting, storing, processing, packing, and transport are all highly energy intensive– largely brought to you by fossil fuels, namely oil.

It’s in Everything We DoOil Uses:

(BRANZ: Level.org)

Building Material Example:

Why is it so important?What is Peak Oil?

-Oil underpins the global economy in every respect.

-Peak oil is the point in time when maximum rate of global extraction is reached, after which oil production enters permanent decline

-When peak oil is reached, supply will be permanently outstripped by demand going forward

-When the supply of oil is overtaken by demand, even temporarily, the price goes up-- often quite steeply

-Once the point of peak oil is officially recognised, markets worldwide will be prone to extreme upheaval

-Currently, there is no suitable replacement or substitute for oil

and its many functions in our global economy.

Beyond geologists, the alarm is now being sounded by UK IndustryTaskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security (e.g., big business). What was once considered a fringe notion is now on the mainstream conscience.

How will we know?When is Peak Oil?

Peak oil is difficult to pinpoint due to a number of factors:

-Economic recessions and drops in demand affect supply of oil, as well as investment in oil infrastructure; financial speculation also has contributed to recent price spikes

-Geopolitical instability (e.g. wars, political issues, local unrest) affects reliability of supply

-Historically, figures on oil supplies have been highly inaccurate and even manipulated

-“Experts” have speculated varying estimated dates from 2000-2020

We will only really know after the fact.

Worldwide Production PeaksOil Depletion:

Hubbard’s CurveCase Study

-Peak Oil in USA was correctly predicted by a model created by geologist M. King Hubbert:

-His methodology referred to as Hubbert’s Curve

-He asserted that peak oil production in the USA would occur between 1965-1970

-In 1970-71, the lower 48 states produced a record amount of oil (a Peak), followed by decline in production thereafter

-The drop in domestic production lead to an increase of US oil import from other areas (namely the Middle East)

-He also predicted a global peak around 2000 or slightly beyond

What the future holdsDemand for Oil

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA):

-Oil production currently on the decline (due to a number of factors)

-The equivalent of 6 new Saudi Arabia-sized oil

deposits will be necessary to meet demand in the future (mainly coming from developing countries in Asia)

-Big investment is needed to continue exploring, tapping, and refining oil supplies–US$26 trillion+ by 2030 (where is this money coming from in the current economic climate?)

Critical to understand: oil is getting more difficult, expensive, and dangerous to find.

1,500 m deep

4.9m+ barrels spilled

180,000 sq. km affected

13 dead, 17 injured

Unprecedented environmental damage

Unprecedented cleanup costs

Unknown long-term economic damage

(source: Wikipedia, US Gov’tUnified Command, et al)

Global energy sourcesDemand for Oil

Global source of energy in 2006

expressed in cubic mile of oil; Source: SRI International

Oil in the bigger pictureOther factors at play

Key trends/considerations:

-According to UN estimates, human population ison the rise and projected to reach 8.9bn-10bn by 2050

-Arable land and fresh water are also becoming scarce

-Many energy resources as well as critical elements will be in decline in coming decades (e.g. uranium, natural gas, trace minerals)

-Climate change: we need to cut greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel sources like oil to prevent the worst effects

-The “endless growth” economic model we currently have is unsustainable: you cannot have indefinite growth on a planet with finite resources (see also, the recent financial crisis and its causes)

Our world as a systemSocial Implications

Important to understand: All these issues are related. While each may be examined in turn, all these areas affect the others, and we are in this system.

All things on the planet are connected, even more so now by a unitary global economy.

Whatever the outcome is, it affects us.

What the future holdsSocial Implications

Key observations/trends:

-We are underinvested in an area critical to our current way of life, one that will be in decline in the near future, one that will also enable any transition to take place

-Oil and the economy that rests on it is unsustainable

-There is no substitute for oil and the energy/services it provides

-Shy of some energy miracle, unprecedented change is looking us in the face

-We need to re-evaluate and re-design our entire way of life

What the future holdsSocial Implications

Transition away from fossil fuels is not a shift that will take place easily.

Human entropy, attitudes, behaviour, vested

interests, politics, and limits of technology are all barriers that need to be overcome.

Is there a better way?Reframing the Problem

For many reasons, we as a society need to move away from fossil fuels. It is a necessity that can no longer be ignored.

How can we use this challenge as a catalyst to redefine how we live?

In other words…Reframing the Problem

WANT A JOB?

Meet these needs Be Ready

Because of peak oil and other factors, the following things we take for granted will need new solutions going into the future:

-How/what will people eat? -How can more food be grown locally?-What sort of building materials will be used in the future?-What forms will buildings take?-What sources of energy can be harvested and used?-How can processes become more energy efficient/effective?-How will people be employed? What jobs will matter?-How will people get healthcare, and what sort of treatment will it involve?-How will mobility/transport need to adjust (both short and long distance)?-What currency will people use to exchange goods and services with?

Alternative Possibilities: Singapore and Beyond Be Ready

Case Study: Agriculture and Land Use–

how will people feed themselves with increase in fuel/food prices?

-Singapore historically produced much of its own food domestically.

-Now reliant on importing some 93% of its food; food production per capita dropped dramatically (graph: Earth Trends)

-Critics say that Singapore does not have enough land area to devote to agriculture

-Yet…there are approximately 300 sites currently listed as farms island-wide


-Singapore: 30 golf courses and country clubs… not to mention parks, green spaces, public gardens, and military camps

-The challenge: perhaps it’s not a matter of land area, but land use

-Localised, low-carbon, intensive, urban agriculture could be possible on this small island

-Cuba rebounded from it’s own “peak oil”scenario following the collapse of the USSR, and now is largely food secure. In 2002 it produced 3.2m tonnes of produce in urban agriculture (see image at right)


Case Study: Less Energy = Better Buildings

-Many Singapore buildings are inefficiently built and operated “glass boxes”, or monolithic high rises

-According to energy efficiency expert Lee Eng Lock, 60% of energy usage in SG attributed to inefficient aircon(bad op. practice, rather than lack of good technology)

-And where does the energy come from? According to NTU in 2007, Singapore energy sources:

76% Natural Gas (most imported MY/IN)22% Fuel Oil (imported from elsewhere)

3% Waste to Energy (refuse).3% Diesel


Case Study: Less Energy = Better Buildings

-One local exemplar of “green” architecture: Poh Ern Shih Temple, Pasir Panjang

Key Features:-Passive cooling design; minimal aircon usage; emphasis on natural ventilation -Shading overhangs/eaves-Amorpheus Cell PV system in 2 large installations (roof + pagoda)-7 large solar hot water heaters-4x micro wind turbines (yes, they work in SG!) -Energy efficient lighting-Energy self-sufficient-Water harvesting on site for landscape-Coming soon: micro-hydro


Case Study: Social Resiliency

Worldwide movement: Transition Towns

Key Features:-Decentralised organisation focused on local responses to peak oil and climate change

-Started in the UK by Rob Hopkins in early 2000’s; now active in 278+ locations in 16+ countries worldwide

-Small, self-organised communities take on initiatives for local resiliency and self-sufficiency

-Emphasis on building local economies and social capital

You now have some ideas. Be Ready

What other possibilities and solutions can be created? It’s up to YOU.

What will it take? Be Ready

-Creative thinking

-Cooperation

-Resiliency

-Self-starting

-Resourcefulness

-Different skill sets

-New ways of doing things + traditional knowledge

-Adaptiveness

You never change anything by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the old model obsolete.

-- Buckminster Fuller

If you remember nothing else, remember this:Conclusion

1) Oil underpins our global economy.

2) An imminent peak in its production will mean many drastic shifts in the way we live.

3) Doing nothing isn’t going to solve the problem.

4) In fact, the “problem” spells a wide range of opportunities.

5) As engineers, designers, architects, social scientists, and other talented people– let’s be at the forefront of tackling peak oil and other critical issues.

6) A lot of the work is done already: there are many useful examples, tools, and technologies to draw on.

7) Change will happen whether we like it or not. We might as well be proactive and view it as an opportunity.

Starting from square one, we are the change our world needs.

Tomorrow doesn’t need to be another yesterday.

We’d like to hear from you.Contact Forward

Thanks for your attention. We’ve been…

Chris Tobias, Lead Strategist

E [email protected] +65 8406 2275

+64 21 0225 2650Skype: Forward.net.nzTwitter: FWDTHNKGLinkedin: ChrisTobiasForward

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Presentation © 2010 Forward®

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