Foresight Review 2010 · Global Food and Farming Futures . calls for urgent action to redesign the food system to address the increasing demands placed upon it. It argues that the

FORESIGHT ADVISES GOVERNMENT ABOUT HOW TO ENSURE TODAY’S DECISIONS ARE ROBUST TO AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE.

FORESIGHT ANNUAL REVIEW 2010 / 5

CONTENTS HIGHLIGHTSHighlightsAbout ForesightGovernment Chief Scientific Advisor’s forewordHead of Foresight’s reportCompleted work

Global Food and Farming Futures Technology and Innovation Futures

Current workGlobal Environmental MigrationComputer Trading in Financial MarketsInternational Dimensions of Climate Change

Our impactGlobal Food and Farming Futures Land Use Futures Sustainable Energy Management and the Built Environment Mental Capital and Wellbeing Tackling Obesities: Future Choices Detection and Identification of Infectious Diseases

AnnexesList of academics, other experts and organisations involved with Foresight work

JANUARY 2010 •ForesightHorizonScanningCentreeventon

International FuturesatWiltonPark

• JointForesightandScienceInnovationNetworkseminaronAgeing

•ForesightinAfrica–FANClubmeeting‘AfricanFutures’

FEBRUARY 2010 •LaunchoftheForesightprojectonLand Use Futures

•Global Environmental Migration: International Modelling workshopheldinLondon,withseniorinternationaleconomistsandmodellers

• InfrastructureUK:Visionfor2050–ForesightHorizonScanningCentreworkshop

•SeminaronhorizonscanningwiththeGerman Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP),Berlin

MARCH 2010•AfricanUnionannouncecreationoftheEastern

AfricanCentreforInfectiousDiseaseSurveillance(EACIDS)Kampala,Uganda

• JointForesightandCabinetOfficeworkshopforStrategyUnit’sStrategicChallenges

•SeminarwithShellonfuturesanalysis

APRIL 2010 •LaunchoftheonlineversionoftheStrategic

Futures Training bytheForesightHorizonScanningCentre

•Global Environmental Migration: Drivers of Migration workshopheldinLondon,withtheproject’s‘driverreview’authors,andleadexperts

•PresentationtotheSmith SchoolabouttheForesightProgramme,Oxford

MAY 2010•VisionaryThinking–Land Use Futuresfeatured

inGeographicalmagazine

JUNE 2010•ForesightHorizonScanningCentreworkshop

onFutureofDemographyintheUK

•ForesightattheCheltenhamScienceFestival–paneldebateson‘ClimateChangeandPopulation’and‘ACarnivore’sDilemma’

JULY 2010•ForesightattheUK Science Journalists conference

•WorkshoponGlobal Food and Farming Futures withForum for Agricultural Research in Africa (FARA) BurkinaFaso

CONTENTS HIGHLIGHTS

4 / CONTENTS

FORESIGHT ANNUAL REVIEW 2010 / 76 / ABOUT FORESIGHT

TheForesightProgrammeadvisesGovernmentandothersabouthowtoensuretoday’sdecisionsarerobusttoanuncertainfuture.Wedothisbycombiningthelatestscientificandotherevidencewithfuturesanalysistohelppolicymakerstacklecomplexissues.Whilethefutureisuncertain,ourworkcanhelptoidentifypotentialopportunitiesandrisks.ForesightbringstogetherdifferentGovernmentdepartmentstostimulateandinformthedevelopmentofstrategies,policiesandprioritiesthataremoreresilientandrobustacrossarangeofpossiblefutures.

ForesightisheadedbytheGovernmentChiefScientificAdviser,ProfessorSirJohnBeddington,whoreportsdirectlytothePrimeMinisterandCabinet.ItisapartoftheGovernment Office for SciencewithintheDepartment for Business, Innovation & Skills.

MoreinformationaboutForesightandtheimpactithasmadeinGovernmentcanbefoundontheForesightwebsiteatwww.bis.gov.uk/foresight

ABOUT FORESIGHTSince its creation in 1994 the Foresight Programme has helped Government to think systematically about the future.

SEPTEMBER 2010•Feedingtheworldin2050–Driverreviews

fromGlobal Food and Farming FuturespublishedinPhilosophicalTransactionsoftheRoyalSociety

•NationalInfrastructurePlanscenarios–ForesightHorizonScanningCentreworkshop

•PresentationtotheNew Synthesis Project onhowcountriescanprepareforthefuture,Singapore

OCTOBER 2010 •PresentationtotheBritish Ecological Society on

theForesightProgramme

•PresentationtotheKorea Institute for Science and Technology Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP) forum,Seoul

NOVEMBER 2010•NewForesightprojectannounced

–Computer Trading in Financial MarketssponsoredbyHerMajesty’sTreasury

•Technology and Innovation FuturespublishedbytheForesightHorizonScanningCentreproject

•ForesightandLiving with Environmental Change workshoponTheLandUseDataChallengeandModellingtheLandUseSystem

•Feedingtheworld:top100questionsforpolicymakerspublishedforGlobal Food and Farming Futures

•PresentationtotheHigh-Level Steering Group for the Prioritisation of Publicly-Funded Research,Ireland

•EvidenceprovidedtoAll-Party Parliamentary Group on Food, Agriculture and International Development,London

DECEMBER 2010•LaunchofthereportObesity Training for

Health Care ProfessionalspublishedbytheRoyalCollegeofPhysicians

JANUARY 2011•LaunchoftheForesightprojectonGlobal Food

and Farming Futures

FEBRUARY 2011• InternationalworkshopsfortheForesightproject

onGlobal Environmental Migration

•PresentationonGlobalFoodandFarmingFuturesattheAmerican Association for the Advancement for Science

•DameClaraFurseappointedasChairtotheLeadExpertGroupoftheForesightprojectonComputer Trading in Financial Markets

MARCH 2011•AcademicworkshopfortheForesightproject

onComputer Trading in Financial Markets

•Howcansciencesupportfoodsecurity?–ForesightworkshopatJoint Research Centre,Brussels

•ForesightpresentationonGlobalFoodandFarmingFuturestoBritish Chamber of Commerce,Brussels

• JointworkshoponecosystemsserviceswiththeScience Innovation Network,ForeignandCommonwealthOffice

APRIL 2011•Howwillinternationalclimatechangeaffectthe

UK?–International Dimensions of Climate Changefinalworkshop

ABOUT FORESIGHTHIGHLIGHTS


Global Food and Farming Futures callsforurgentactiontoredesignthefoodsystemtoaddresstheincreasingdemandsplaceduponit.Itarguesthattheglobalfoodsystemmustbecomesustainable,whilstadaptingtoclimatechangeandsubstantiallycontributingtoclimatechangemitigation.Furthermore,withalmostonebillionofthemostvulnerablepeoplestillsufferingfromhungerandafurtherbillionlackingsufficientmicronutrientsandvitamins,thereisacompellingneedtoredoubleeffortstoaddresshunger.

Overthepastyearwehavealsotackledtwootherprojectsonkeyareasofgovernmentpolicy.Global Environmental Migrationisexaminingthepatternsandimpactsofhumanmigrationoverthenext50yearsandhowthesecouldchangeduetoclimatechangeandotherenvironmentalfactors.International Dimensions of Climate ChangehasidentifiedtheriskandopportunitiesposedbyclimatechangeimpactsoverseasfortheUKandtheevidencebasewillinformtheUK’sfirstClimateChangeRiskAssessment(asrequiredbylaw

throughthe2008ClimateChangeAct)toensurethattheGovernment’spolicyonadaptationtoclimatechangetakesappropriateaccountofinternationalimpacts.Bothprojectsreportin2011.

Foresight’sroleintacklingdifficultbutcriticalissuesisfurtherexemplifiedinourlatestproject:Computer Trading in Financial Markets.SponsoredbyMarkHobanMP,theFinancialSecretarytoHerMajesty’sTreasury,thisprojectwillstudyhowfinancialmarketsarebeingtransformedbyfast-pacedtechnologicalprogress,andevaluatetherisksandopportunitiesthatwillariseinthefuture.

Asever,mysincerethanksgoestothemanyhundredsofexpertsandstakeholders,bothintheUKandabroad,whohavecontributedtoForesight’sgrowingimpact.

TheForesightProjectonGlobal Food and Farming FuturespublishedinJanuary2011soughttoaddresswhatIconsiderisoneofthemostimportantglobalchallenges:howtofeedaglobalpopulationthatisprojectedtoriseto9billionormoreby2050.Thisprojectwasamajorendeavorinvolvingover400leadingexpertsandstakeholdersfrom35countries,includingkeyinternationalorganisationssuchastheUN’sHigh-LevelTaskForceonGlobalFoodSecurityandtheOECD.SincepublicationthereporthasbeenlaunchedincollaborationwiththeJointResearchCentreoftheEuropeanCommissiontotheEuropeanpolicycommunity,andpresentedattheUN’sFoodandAgriculturalOrganization.

TheprojecthasbenefitedconsiderablyfromengagementwithoursponsordepartmentsthroughSecretaryofStatesCarolineSpelmanMPattheDepartmentforEnvironment,FoodandRuralAffairsandAndrewMitchellMPattheDepartmentforInternationalDevelopment.ThesestronglevelsofengagementhavecontinuedacrossWhitehallsincepublicationasthereportinformsarangeofinitiatives.

GOVERNMENT CHIEF SCIENTIFIC ADVISER’S FOREWORD

FOREWORD

Professor Sir John Beddington CMG FRS Government Chief Scientific Adviser and Head of the Government Office for Science


developedbyInfrastructureUK;itiscurrentlyinformingtheDepartmentofEnergyandClimateChange’sGreenDealandwillcontributetotherecentlyannouncedResearchandInnovationStrategyledbytheDepartmentforBusiness,InnovationandSkills.

OurprojectonGlobal Environmental Migrationheldfourinternationalworkshopsexaminingtheimplicationsofglobalenvironmentalchangeonmigrationpatternsindifferenteco-regions.Byinvolvinginternationalacademics,internationalandregionalagencies,andlocalgovernment,theseeventsenabledtheprojecttodrawuponinnovativeideasandlocalperspectivesforthefinalreport.Theprojectwillreportinautumn2011.

ThenewForesightprojectonComputer in Financial Marketshasmadesubstantialprogress.Announcedinthelatterhalfof2010,thisprojecthasassembledadistinguishedleadexpertgroup,chairedbyDameClaraFurse,formerCEOoftheLondonStockExchange,toleadthetechnicalwork.Theprojectisalreadyengagingsubstantiallywithimportantinternationalpolicydevelopments.

International Dimensions of Climate ChangeisthefirstofanewshortertypeofForesightprojectwhichhasexaminedhowclimatechangeimpactsinotherpartsoftheworldcouldaffecttheUK.CommissionedbyDefratoinformtheClimateChangeRiskassessment,ithasstimulatedinterestacrossgovernmentinthesecurityimplicationsofclimatechange.

In2010,ForesightalsoworkedcloselywithLivingWithEnvironmentalChangeandDefratoensurethatitsLand Use FuturesreportinformedtherecentlypublishedtheNaturalEnvironmentWhitePaper,andtheNationalEcosystemsAssessment.Also,IampleasedtonotetheinfluencethattheMental Capital and Wellbeingreport’semphasisonpositivewellbeingcontinuestohaveonimportantaspectsofGovernment’sthinking,suchasthenewcross-GovernmentmentalhealthstrategyNo health without mental health.

IamdeeplygratefultothemanypeoplewhohavecontributedtoForesight’sworkoverthepastyear.

LastyearwaspivotalforForesightwiththepublicationofourmostambitiousreporttodate,andthefirsttobecommissionedbySirJohnBeddington.Global Food and Farming Futures entailedextensivecollaborationwithinternationalresearchandpolicycommunities.IthighlightedForesight’sroleintacklingcritical,complexissues,andanalysedawealthofevidencebeforeconcludingthattheglobalfoodsystemisfailingandthatsustainabilityneedstobebroughtcentrestage.Thereportdescribesfivebroadstrategiesthatcanhelpaddressthisglobalchallenge.Foresightwillbefollowingupthisreportwithitssponsordepartments,theDepartmentforEnvironment,FoodandRuralAffairsandtheDepartmentforInternationalDevelopment,andawiderangeofnationalandinternationalorganisationstohelpcatalyseactionthroughout2011.

TheForesightHorizonScanningCentre’sreportTechnology and Innovation FutureswaswelcomedbytheScienceMinisterDavidWilletsandoffersaforwardlookatarangeofpotentialdevelopmentsoverthenext20yearstosupportsustainedeconomicgrowthintheUK.ItsmessageswerereflectedintheNationalInfrastructurePlan

HEAD OF FORESIGHT’S REPORT

FORESIGHT REPORT

Professor Sandy Thomas Head of Foresight, Government Office for Science

12 / COMPLETED WORK FORESIGHT ANNUAL REVIEW 2010 / 13

Thereportemphasisesthatweareatauniquemomentinhistoryasdiversefactorssuchaschangesintheclimate;competitionforresources,forexamplewatersupplyandenergy;andchangingconsumptionpatternsconvergeandprovideconsiderablechallengestosustainingtheworld’sfoodsupply.Whilsttheglobalfoodsystemcurrentlydeliversformany,itisfailingintwocriticalways;consumingtheworld’snaturalresourcesatanunsustainablerate;andfailingtheverypoorest,withalmostonebillionoftheleastadvantagedandmostvulnerablepeoplestillsufferingfromhungerandmalnutrition.

Thereport,publishedinJanuary2011,arguesthaturgentactionisneededtoredesignthefoodsystemtofeedtheworld’sgrowingpopulation.

GLOBAL FOOD AND FARMING FUTURESThe Foresight project Global Food and Farming Futures explored how a future global population of 9 billion people can all be fed healthily and sustainably.

COMPLETED WORK


1. Balancing future demand and supply sustainably to ensure that food supplies are affordable.Thefoodsystemiscurrentlyconsumingresourcesfasterthantheyarebeingnaturallyreplenishedandrenewed.Itconsumes70%oftotalglobalwaterwithdrawalsfromriversandaquifersanddirectlycontributes10-12%ofgreenhousegas(GHG)emissions.Theglobalfoodsystemhastoberedesignedtobringsustainabilitycentrestage.Supplymustbeincreasedwithoutbringinginsubstantiallynewlandforagriculture.Thereportarguesthatmorefoodcanbedeliveredbyusingexistingknowledgeandinnovationbettertoincreaseproduction;moderatingdemand;managingwaste;improvinggovernance;andraisingthepoliticalprofileoffood.

2. Ensuring that there is adequate stability in food supplies and protecting the most vulnerable from the volatility that does occur.Whiletheamountofvolatilityremainsuncertain,pricespikesinthefutureareinevitable.Whilevolatilityhasbeenloweroverthepast20years,pricespikesin2007/8hadaprofoundimpactincreasinghungerandtherisksofpoliticalandsocialinstability.Althoughpredictingthefutureiscomplex,thereareclearactionsthatcanbetakentomanagevolatility.Theyinclude:creatingreliablerules-basedliberalisedinternationaltrade;investigatingmoderncommoditytrading;cautiononcallsforaglobalsystemofgrainreserves;appropriateinsuranceforpoorfarmers;andtargetingfoodreservesandsafetynets.Aspricesinearly2011exceedthehighof2008,protectionofthemostvulnerablegroupsfromtheworsteffectsoffoodpricevolatilitymustbeprioritised.

3. Achieving global access to food and ending hunger. Thefoodsystemisfailingtoaddresshunger.Inadditiontothe925millionpeoplecurrentlyexperiencinghunger,anotherbillionarethoughttosufferfrom‘hiddenhunger’.Incontrast,abillionpeopleareover-consuming.Effortstoendhungerinternationallyarealreadystalling,andwithoutdecisiveactionfoodpricescouldrisesubstantiallyoverthenext40yearsmakingthesituationworse.Astrongerconstituencyforhungerreductionneedstobebuilt.Thebenefitsofagriculturetosupportwomenandsmall-holderfarming,andimprovenutritionandhealthmustberecognised.Effortsmustbefocusedonrebuildinginfrastructure;creatingbettermonitoringandevaluation,forexample,usinghungermapstotargethungerhot-spots;andbuildinganti-hungermomentumsohungerishardertoignore.

4. Managing the contribution of the food system to the mitigation of climate change. Agriculture’scontributionof10-12%ofGHGemissionsrisesto30%ormorewhenlandconversionandcostsbeyondthefarmgateareadded.Addressingclimatechangeandachievingsustainabilityintheglobalfoodsystemneedtoberecognisedasdualimperatives.Ambitious,andinsomecaseslegallybindingtargetsforreducingemissionshavebeensetwhichcannotbeachievedwithoutthefoodsystemplayinganimportantpart.Thereisaclearcaseforsubstantiallyintegratingandimprovingagricultureandfoodproductioninnegotiationsonglobalemissionsreductions.

5. Maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services while feeding the world. Decisionstakennowwillaffectthediversityofplantandanimalspeciesforfuturegenerations.Foodsupplywillneedtoincreasewithouttheuseofsubstantiallymorelandandwithdiminishingimpactontheenvironment:sustainableintensificationisanecessity.Thereportarguesthatpoliciesforfoodproductionandmaintainingbiodiversityandecosystemservicesneedtobedevelopedandproperlyconnectedatbothglobalandnationallevels.

Top Five Challenges – Global Food And Farming Futures

How we did the project Thetwoyearprojecthascommissionedover80scientificreviews;involvedover400leadingexpertsandstakeholdersfrom35countries.TheprojecthasbeenguidedbyahighlevelsteeringgroupofinternationalexpertsfromtheUN,EU,WorldBank,industryandcivilsociety;anddrawsonotherwellregardedinternationalreports.StrategicdirectionfortheprojectwasprovidedbytheHigh-LevelStakeholderGroupwhichwasco-chairedbyJim Paice MP,MinisterofStateforAgricultureandFood,DepartmentforEnvironment,FoodandRuralAffairs(Defra)andStephen O’Brien MP,ParliamentaryUnderSecretaryofStateforInternationalDevelopment,DepartmentforInternationalDevelopment(Dfid).TheLeadExpertGroup,chairedbyProfessorCharlesGodfray,OxfordUniversity,ensuredthattheprojectusedthebestevidenceavailable.Theproject’sdiverseevidencebasewaspublishedinthreepeer-reviewedjournalsincludingtheRoyal Society Philosophical Transactions BandtheJournal of Agricultural Science.Awiderangeofsubjectsfromfoodpolicytogenderissueswerecoveredintheproject.ThepapersarealsoavailablefreeofchargeontheForesightwebsite.

Project conclusions

TheForesightreportarguesthatthefoodsystemmustbecomesustainable,whilstadaptingtoclimatechangeandsubstantiallycontributingtoclimatechangemitigation.Thereisalsoaneedtoredoubleeffortstoaddresshunger.Theprojecthasidentifiedandanalysedthefollowingfivekeychallengesforthefuture:seepageoppositeforasummary.

ForesightwillworkcloselywiththeDepartmentsforEnvironmental,FoodandRuralAffairsandInternationalDevelopmentandtheproject’sHigh-LevelStakeholderGroupoverthenextyeartoensurethereport’sfindingsandevidencebaseinformfuturepolicies.Visitthe‘our impact’sectiontoseewhatimmediateinfluencetheForesightprojectGlobalFoodandFarmingFutureshasalreadymade.

COMPLETED WORK


•Waste must be minimised in all areas of the food chain:Anamountoffoodequivalenttoaboutaquarteroftoday’sannualproductioncouldpotentiallybesavedby2050ifthecurrentestimateofglobalfoodwasteishalved.

•Focus on sustainability:theapplicationofexistingknowledgeandtechnologycouldincreaseaverageyieldsbytwotothreefoldinmanypartsofAfrica,andtwofoldintheRussianFederation.Similarly,globalproductivityinaquaculturecould,withlimitedchangestoinputs,beraisedbyaround40%.

• Improving governance of the global food system: Itisimportanttoreducesubsidiesandtradebarriersthatdisadvantagepoorcountries.Theproject’seconomicmodellingshowshowtraderestrictionscanamplifyshocksinthefoodsystem,raisingpricesfurther.

•Knowledge is power:Investmentinnewscienceandtechnologytoraisethelimitsofsustainableproductionandaddressnewthreatswillbeessential.Noonetechnologyortypeofresearchwillbeasilverbulletforaddressingsustainableproduction.Wewillneedtoincreaseourunderstandingofanimalstoimproveyieldswhilestillincreasingwater,nutrientandotherefficiencies.Also,wewillneedtoprioritiseresearchonclimatechangeadaptationandmitigationinthefoodsystem,forexample,producingcropsthataredroughtandfloodresistant.

Media CoverageTheprojectGlobalFoodandFarmingFuturesheldapressbriefingforscience,environmentandfarmingcorrespondentsattheScienceMediaCentreandanotherforinternationalcorrespondentsbasedinLondonthroughtheForeignandCommonwealthOfficeonMonday24January2011.Thereportreceivedextensiveprintandbroadcastcoverageinboththenationalandinternationalpress.AfulllistofmediaimpactcanbefoundontheForesightwebsitebutaselectionofmediacoveragecanbefoundbelow:

Welcome for report on food security The Scotsman

‘No easy solution’ to global hunger The Today Programme

Global food stocks face crisis, says chief scientist BBC Breakfast

Global food system must be transformed ‘on industrial revolution scale’ The Guardian

Era of low-cost food is over, study warns The Financial Times

Food prices to rocket by 50% as global hunger epidemic causes riots and famines Daily Mail

People ‘should be discouraged from eating meat’ The Times

GM crops ‘could feed the world’ Press Association

Experts warn of spikes in global food prices Toronto Star

Groundbreaking food security report calls for urgent action Malaysia Sun

Scientists and Ministers call for new agricultural revolution Farmer’s Guardian

Linking policy on climate and food Science Magazine

Farming needs ‘sustainable intensification’ says report SciDev Net

COMPLETED WORK

Key messages from the report

http://www.bis.gov.uk/foresight/our-work/projects/published-projects/global-food-and-farming-futures/media-impact


Comments on the report

“We need a global, integrated approach to food security, one that looks beyond the food system to the inseparable goals of reducing poverty, tackling climate change and reducing biodiversity loss – and the UK Government is determined to show the international leadership needed to make that happen. We can unlock an agricultural revolution in the developing world, which would benefit the poorest the most, simply by improving access to knowledge and technology, creating better access to markets and investing in infrastructure. To fuel this revolution, we must open up global markets, boost global trade and make reforms that help the poorest. Trade restrictions must be avoided, especially at times of scarcity. And we must manage price volatility by building trust and cooperation – and in particular by creating greater transparency around the true levels of food stocks.”

Environment Secretary Caroline Spelman

“With one seventh of the world’s population still hungry, this report is a clarion call to arms. The food price crisis in 2008 increased the number of people suffering from hunger by 150 million. Today reports of increasing food prices once again fill the news – and it’s clear from this new study that price volatility is only set to increase in the future making further food price spikes inevitable. Internationally, those with the least spend the largest proportion of their income on food, so food price shocks hit the poorest hardest and can have long term impacts on their health. Britain is already working to tackle malnutrition, improve agriculture, and get new research into the hands of the poorest people. Steps taken now and pushed through over the next few decades to stabilise global markets, reduce volatility and prioritise agriculture will have a disproportionate effect on ensuring food security for a predicted nine billion people by 2050.”

International Development Secretary Andrew Mitchell

COMPLETED WORK


Technology and Innovation Futuresisaforwardlookatarangeofdevelopmentswhichhavethepotentialoverthenext20yearstosupportsustainedeconomicgrowthintheUK.AstheUKcomesoutoftheeconomicdownturn,itseemslikelythatfutureeconomicprosperitywillderiveinlargepartfromseizingopportunitiesofferedbytechnologiessuchasthese.

PublishedinNovember2010,thereportconcludesthattherearestrongopportunitiesforgrowthintheUKeconomythroughthe2020sifbusinessescanharnessscientificandindustrialcapabilitiestotakeadvantageoftechnologydevelopments.Itidentifiesthreepotentialareasofgrowthwhichcouldbetransformative:manufacturing,infrastructureandtheinternet.OtherareashighlightedbythereportaretheenergytransitionwhichtheUKwillundergoduringthenext10-20years,theUK’sR&Deffortsinnewmaterialswhichcouldhelprealisethemovetoalowcarboneconomy,thepotentialofthemarketforregenerativemedicineandtheincreasingimportanceofintellectualproperty,allofwhichofferopportunitiesforUKcompanies.

TheevidenceusedintheTechnologyandInnovationFuturesprojectwasgatheredbydeskwork,andinterviewswith25leadingfiguresfromresearchandbusiness,andfiveworkshopsinvolving150academics,industrialists,andexpertsfromtheprivatesectorandGovernment.Theworkshopsusedfuturestechniquestoprovokeandstructurediscussions.

ThereportwaswelcomedbyMinisterforUniversitiesandScience,DavidWilletswhosaid:

“Thistimelyreportlooksathowwecanbenefitfromthegrowthopportunitiesofthenext20yearsinmanufacturing,health,communicationsandenergy.Itcallsformoreactivecooperationbetweenlargecompanies,smallandmediumenterprisesandresearcherstoplanambitiousstrategiesforthebenefitoftheirsectors.Developmentsinthisareawillhelpstrengthenoureconomyandenableustoleadthewayforinnovation.”

TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION FUTURES Technological developments have the ability to transform our economy.

COMPLETED WORK

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TheForesightprojectonGlobal Environmental Migration wascommissionedbySirJohnBeddingtoninOctober2009,andwillbepublishedinautumn2011.

Theprojectwillconsiderglobalmigrationwhichoccursinthecontextoffutureenvironmentalchange,withafocusonthosewhomoveandthosewhostaybehind,andthepolicyimplicationsforallinvolved.

Itwillexplore:

•Globalpatternsofmigrationandhowtheymaybeaffectedbyenvironmentalchangeoverthenext50years;

•Thechallengesandopportunitiesthatcouldresultfromchangingmigrationpatterns;and

•Howthesemaybeaddressed,usingthemostup-to-datescienceandknowledgeinarangeofareasofwhichoverlapwithenvironmentalchangeandmigrationpolicy.

Partoftheresearchcommissionedbytheprojectfocusesonthedriversofmigration,includingsocial,political,environmental,economicanddemographic

factors,andtheimpactofenvironmentalchangeuponthese.ThesecommissionedpieceswillbepublishedinaspecialeditionofthejournalGlobal Environmental Changeintheautumn.

TheprojectheldfourinternationalworkshopsinDhaka(Bangladesh),Istanbul(Turkey),Kathmandu(Nepal)andJohannesburg(SouthAfrica)todeepenitsanalysisandunderstanding.Thelocationsreflecttheproject’skey‘eco-regions’,areasofsignificanthumanhabitationwhichareacutelyvulnerabletoenvironmentalchange,includinglowelevationcoastalzonesandsmallislandstates,drylandsandmountainousregions.TheMediterraneanisalsoafocusasitcontainselementsofallthreeregions.

Theworkshopsbroughttogetherexpertsfromacrosstheglobetoconsiderthefutureofglobalenvironmentalmigration.Workshopattendeesfocusedspecificallyonfuturechallengesandopportunitiespresentedwithineachregion,andidentifiedbothgeneralandregion-specificpolicyoptions.

Throughstructureddiscussionandworkshopquestions,theattendeesofeachworkshoptestedtheproject’semergingfindingsandconceptualframeworks.Theworkshopreportswillcontributedirectlytotheproject,toensurethefinalForesightreportisrelevanttointernationalpolicymakerswithinthefourregions.

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL MIGRATION Foresight’s latest project will examine how environmental change could affect human migration around the world, out to 2060.

CURRENT WORK


Foresight’smostrecentprojectwillexaminethechallengesandopportunitiespresentedbytechnologicaladvancesinfinancialmarketsworldwide.Inrecentyearsthewaysinwhichfinancialmarketsoperatehavebeentransformedbyfast-pacedtechnologicalprogress.Forexample,thevolumeoffinancialproductstradedthroughcomputerautomatedtrading,takingplaceathighspeedandwithlittlehumaninvolvement,hasincreasedsubstantiallyinthepastfewyears.Today,overone-thirdoftheUK’sequitytradingvolumeisgeneratedthroughhighfrequencyautomatedcomputertradingwhileintheUSthisfigureisclosertothree-quarters.

ThisForesightprojectComputerTradinginFinancialMarkets,issponsoredbyHer Majesty’s TreasuryandledbytheGovernment’sChiefScientificAdviser,ProfessorSirJohnBeddington,andaimstomakeasignificantcontributiontotheefficiency,integrityandresilienceoffinancialmarkets,byidentifyingoptionsforpolicymakersintheUKandinternationally.

Itwillexplorehowcomputergeneratedtradinginfinancialmarketsmightevolveoverthenextdecadeormore,andhowthiswillaffect:

•Financialstability;

• Integrityoffinancialmarkets,includingpriceinformationandliquidity;

•Competition;

•Marketefficiencyinallocatingcapital;

•Transactioncostsonaccesstofinance;and

•Futureroleandlocationofcapitalmarkets.

Itwillalsoassesspolicyoptionsandconsiderhowtheopportunitiesofferedbyadvancementsincomputertechnologiescouldbecapitaliseduponbythefinancialsector.

Theprojectisduetopublishinautumn2012.

COMPUTER TRADING IN FINANCIAL MARKETS Financial markets have been transformed by fast-paced technological progress.

CURRENT WORK


Theprojectcombinesthebestfeaturesfromthelargecross-cuttingForesightstudiesandtheshorterprojectsfromtheForesightHorizonScanningCentre.

TheClimateChangeActrequiresGovernmenttoundertakeaClimateChangeRiskAssessmentfortheUK,thefirstofwhichwillbelaidinParliamentbyJanuary2012.TheClimateChangeRiskAssessmentistheprimaryevidencesourcethatwillinformthenationaladaptationpolicyprogramme,whichtheClimateChangeActrequirestheDepartmentforEnvironmentFoodandRuralAffairs(Defra)tocreate.Thisproject,co-fundedbyDefraandtheDepartmentforEnergyandClimateChange(Decc),willenhancetheevidencebaseoftheClimateChangeRiskAssessmenttoensurethattheGovernment’spolicyonadaptationtakesappropriateaccountofinternationalimpacts.

Theprojectwillreportinsummer2011.AbroadrangeofimpactsthatclimatechangecouldhaveontheUK,includingpossibleopportunitiesandthreatshavebeenidentified.Theseincludeimplicationsfordiplomacyandforeignpolicy,security,resourcesandcommodities,financeandtrade,humanhealthandsocialvalues.

INTERNATIONAL DIMENSIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE This Foresight project aims to improve our understanding of how climate change impacts in other parts of the world could affect the UK.

CURRENT WORK

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GLOBAL FOOD AND FARMING FUTURES Foresight has a dedicated team that works across government to catalyse action and to help departments and other stakeholders to take up the findings of our reports.

OUR IMPACT

TheForesightprojectonGlobal Food and Farming FutureshasattractedtheimmediateattentionofmultipleUKandinternationalstakeholders,andhasalreadybeguntomakeanimpactontheinternationalpolicyandresearchcommunity.TheUKGovernmentplanstoworkcloselywithForesightandtheproject’sleadexpertstofacilitatethereport’simpactonseveralareasofpolicydevelopment;forexample,intradereformandmarkets,sustainableintensification,biodiversity,andendinghunger.Awiderangeofinternationalstakeholderscommentedonthereportatthetimeofpublication.Forexample,theUN High-Level Task Force on Global Food SecuritywelcomedthereportandanticipatedthattheUNorganisationswoulddrawonitsevidenceandanalysesastheypursuethepolicyoptionsoutlinedintheirUpdatedComprehensiveFrameworkforAction.TheOECDcommentedthatthefindingswillassistinthedevelopmentoftheOECD’sGreenGrowthStrategyforFoodandAgricultureandtheOECDAgricultureKnowledgeSystemsConferenceinJune2011.

Shortlyafterpublicationofthereport,ForesightheldaspecialpaneleventattheAmerican Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)annualmeetinginWashingtonD.C.ProfessorSirJohnBeddingtonandProfessorCharlesGodfray,chairoftheLeadExpertGroup,wereinvitedtospeakaboutthereportinasessiontitled‘Howcantheworldfeed9billionpeopleby2050sustainablyandequitably?’

ForesightsharedsomeoftheemergingfindingswithAfricanstakeholdersatthe5thAfricanAgricultureScienceWeekinBurkinaFasoin2010.ForesightisnowworkingwiththeAfrican UnionandtheComprehensive African Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP)toexplorehowthereportmightinformandsupportthedeliveryoftheAfricanUnionandCAADPpriorities.Forexample,thisstrandaimstodeepenunderstandingofthefactorsimpactingAfricaandinformdecisionsandinfluencepolicyoneconomicandsocialdevelopmentandregionalandinternationaltradeatarangeofgeo-politicallevels.


LAND USE FUTURES

TheForesightprojectonLand Use Futures,publishedinFebruary2010,arguesforstrategicobjectivestoguidefuturelandusechangeastheUK’slandsystemcomesundernewpressuresinthedecadesahead.Sincepublication,ForesighthasworkedwithGovernmentdepartmentsandotherstakeholderstoexplorehowtheevidencebaselaidoutinthereportmightbeusedtoinformpolicyandstrategicthinking.Forexample,DefrahasusedthereportindevelopingtheconsultationexercisefortheNatural Environment White Paperandintakingforwardthe National Ecosystem Assessment,whichisthefirstanalysisoftheUK’snaturalenvironmentintermsofthebenefitsitprovidestosocietyandfutureeconomicprosperity.

HowlandisusedprovidesawiderangeofbenefitstoabroadsectionoftheUKpopulation.Italsohasthepropensitytoimposecosts,suchaspollutionorcongestion,onanequallywiderangeofpeople.Costsandbenefitsregularlyextendbeyondtheimmediateusersofland,butpricesforlandindifferentusesdonotfullyreflectthis.Defra’sNatural Value ProgrammeaimstointegratethevalueofthenaturalenvironmentanduseofanecosystemsapproachinDefra,otherGovernmentDepartments,atalocallevel,andinbusinessandtheForesightreportprovidestheevidencefortheprogramme.

ThefindingsfromtheForesightprojectsonLandUseFuturesandGlobalFoodandFarmingFuturesarereflectedinNatural England’s Corporate Plan 2011-2015.Theplansetsoutitsnewapproachtosafeguardingthenaturalenvironment,anapproachwhichfocusesonreconnectingpeoplewithnature;onprotectingnaturalassetsandontheopportunitiesofferedbythegreenereconomy.

LandUseFutureshighlightsanimportantchallenge:theneedforaccessible,high-qualitydatatoinformpolicyandresearch.Meetingthis‘datachallenge’willbeanessentialstepinmakingprogressinsustainablefuturelanduseandhasstruckachordwithawiderangeofstakeholders.Manyorganisations,inparticularthepartnershipLiving With Environmental Change(LWEC),shareacommoninterestinthedatachallengeandalsoinreviewingitspivotalroleinsupportingthedevelopmentofanintegratedlandusemodel.ForesighthasworkedwithLWECandotherorganisationstoexplorehowbesttorespondtotheneedforaccessible,high-qualitydatafromwhichtobuildtheevidencebasetoinformpolicyandresearch,particularly,thedemandandsupplyoflandusedata,andtoexplorewaystodevelopandimproveit.

OUR IMPACT


SUSTAINABLE ENERGY MANAGEMENT AND THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT

Theone-yearreviewoftheSustainable Energy Management and Built Environmentreport,publishedin2010highlightshowtheprojecthasinformedtheactionsGovernmenthastakeninmeetingtheClimateChangeAct’stargetof80%decarbonisationby2050.Thereportwasalsousedtoinformthedevelopmentoflocalscaleinitiativesinbuildingandretrofittingtechnologiesandenergysystemswhichwillprovideimportantcontributionstomakingthebuiltenvironmentmoresustainable.

Forexample,theTechnology Strategy Board’sBuildingPerformanceEvaluationprogramme,whichaddressesenergyefficiencyofexistingandnewbuildinthecommercialanddomesticenvironments,drawsontheForesightprojectandcomplementsandsupportstheDepartment for Energy and Climate Change’s (DECC)prioritiessuchasthedevelopmentoftheNationalEnergyEfficiencyDatabase.

TheForesightreportprovedtobevaluableinmovingtheDECC’sworkforwardindevelopingpolicyproposalsfordistributedenergysolutions.Ithadparticularinfluenceonthreecriticalpiecesofworkin2009:theHeatandEnergySavingsStrategy,theLowCarbonCommunityChallenge,andtheLowCarbonTransitionPlan.

TheleadauthorsofthereportPowering our LivesareworkingtogetheronanEngineering and Physical Sciences Research Councilfundedproject:‘Challenginglock-inthroughurbanenergysystems’(CLUES)whichistakingforwardsomeofthisreport’sfindings.TheCLUESprojectwillassessthecontributionofdecentralisedurbansystemsinachievingnationaldecarbonisationgoalsanddeepenourunderstandingofhowthebarriersanddriversofurbanenergyinitiativeshaveimplicationsforenergysystemsatdifferentscales.Theprojectwillmakeuseofthe2050scenariosdevelopedbytheForesightstudytohelpunderstandthepotential

varietyinfuturepathwaystosustainabilityinthefaceofkeyuncertainties.

TheForesightreporthasbeenusedtopromotetheexchangeofinternationalperspectivesandknowledge.Forexample,theUCLEnvironmentInstituteco-hostedasymposiumwithForesightandtheForeignandCommonwealthOfficeforleadingUKandUSexperts.Thisevent‘Sustainable Energy Management and the Built Environment’ Foresight Report: Sharing Anglo-American Best PracticefocusedonenergyincitiesandtestedtheapplicabilityoftheForesightscenariosinaUScontext.Itallowedexpertsfromacademia,industryandgovernmenttoshareinsightsonthethemesfromthereportandstimulateddiscussiononaninternationalresearchagendaonenergyandcities,andnewnetworksofcollaboration.

OUR IMPACT


MENTAL CAPITAL AND WELLBEING

In2010,Foresightpublishedtheone-yearreviewofimpactofitsMental Capital and Wellbeingreportwhichsetoutwherethereporthasplayedasignificantpartinhelpingshapeseveralkeygovernmentpolicieswhichreflectthegrowingrecognitionandimportanceofpositivementalhealthandwellbeing.

TheUKGovernment’sMental Health Strategy,publishedinFebruary2010,reflectssomeofthekeyconclusionsfromtheForesightreport,inparticularthecallforanintegrated,cross-governmentstrategytodelivermentalhealthandwellbeing.Also,bylinkingdepartmentalresponses,governmentinvestmentcanbebetterdirectedandmoreeffectivelyco-ordinatedindeliveringthe‘lifecourseapproach’toMentalCapitalandWellbeingassetoutinthestudy.TheadoptionoftheForesightreport’sFive ways to wellbeingsetsoutavaluableandaccessiblestrategybywhichindividualscanplayanimportantpartindevelopingtheirownmentalwellbeing.

TheMentalCapitalandWellbeingprojecthasreceivedinternationalexposure.InJanuary2010theForesightProgrammeandtheForeign and Commonwealth Office’s Science and Innovation Networkhostedaworkshopentitled‘Unlockingandutilisingthementalcapitaloftheageingpopulation:internationalperspectivesandopportunities’.Theeventbroughttogetherover20ofEurope’skeypolicymakersandacademicstodiscussthefindingsofthereportandtoreviewthescientificevidencebaseonmentalcapitalandtheageingpopulation,tosharebestpractice,toexplorethebarrierstoprogress,andtoidentifythesynergiesandopportunitiesforfutureEuropeancollaboration.

TheChineseGovernment’sMinistryofEducationhasshowninterestintheMentalCapitalandWellbeingreport.Sincepublicationin2009,ithasorganisedagrouptostudyhowtoapplyittothenationaleducationstrategyupto2020.Also,anewresearchinitiative(c£1.5million)fundedbytheChineseGovernment,involvingChineseandUKacademicswillexplorechildren’slearningdifficultiesandrelatingtosocialwithdrawalbehaviour.

OUR IMPACT

http://issuu.com/neweconomicsfoundation/docs/five_ways_to_well-being?mode=embed&viewMode=presentation


TACKLING OBESITIES

In2010,ForesightpartneredwiththeRoyal College of Physicians(RCP)toproduceareporttoguidehealthprofessionalsontreatingobesity.Thereport‘Training of health professionals for the prevention and treatment of overweight and obesity’ highlightsthecorecompetenciesthatwillgiveprofessionalstheknowledgeandskillstheyneedtocontributetoeffectivestrategiesforpreventionandtreatmentofobesity.

TheForesightreportonTackling Obesities,publishedin2007,acknowledgestheimportanceofanycomprehensivelong-termstrategyaddressingbothpreventionandtreatment.TheRCPreportcomplementsexistingevidencetoemphasisethatinfuture,everyhealthprofessionalwillneedtobetrainedtoidentifypeopleatriskfromincreasingbodyweight,andbeskilledatmanagingobesity.

ThedramaticincreaseintheprevalenceofoverweightandobesityintheUKinthelast20yearshasnotbeenmatchedbyasimilarexpansionofeducationandtraininginhowtocareforobesepatients.Atpresentthereislimitedinformationprovidedinbothunder-andpost-graduatetraining,andverylittlefocusonweightmanagementinspecialistmedicaltraining.Consequently,manyhealthprofessionalseitherdonotrealisethemedicalconsequencesofobesityorlackconfidenceandtheabilitytohelp.TheRCPreport,whichisendorsedbytheRoyalCollegeofGeneralPractitioners,theRoyalCollegeofNursingandtheRoyalCollegeofPaediatricsandChildHealth,emphasisestheimportanceofeducatinghealthprofessionalsandlistsindetailtheknowledgeandskillsneededtobeabletodiagnose,manageandtreatoverweightandobesepeople.

OUR IMPACT


DETECTION AND IDENTIFICATION OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES

TheForesightProgrammesupportedthedevelopmentoftheAfrican Union Science and Technology Framework for the Detection, Identification and Monitoring of Infectious Diseases in Africa,whichwasbasedonthefindingsoftheForesightstudypublishedin2006.Theframeworkwilllinkscientistsandinstitutionsinvolvedwiththesurveillanceandresearchoninfectiousdiseasesofhumans,animalsandplants.Specifically,Foresightco-hostedaworkshopinKampala,UgandawithAfricanstakeholdersfromUganda,Rwanda,Burundi,Kenya,Sudan,EthiopiaandtheAfricanUniontoexplorethecreationoftheEastern Africa Centre for Infectious Disease Surveillance.ThisbuildsontheexperienceoftheSouthern African Centre for Infectious Disease SurveillancedevelopedontheprinciplesinlinewiththevisionsetoutintheForesightreportInfectious Diseases: Preparing for the Future – Africa.

OUR IMPACT

40 / ANNEXES FORESIGHT ANNUAL REVIEW 2010 / 41

ANNEXESMany academics, other experts and policy makers contribute to Foresight’s work. Foresight projects involve leading experts from a wide range of scientific and other disciplines to ensure that our work is of the highest technical standard, and relevant to policy. A High-Level Stakeholder Group (HLSG) of relevant organisations in the public sector, research community and business advise Foresight on the strategic direction of projects, and the actions that should result from the work. Membership of the Lead Expert Groups and HLSG are published in this section.

ANNEXES

Advisory Board for Foresight TheAdvisoryBoardforForesightadvisestheGovernmentChiefScientificAdviserontheoverallstrategicdirectionoftheForesightProgramme.Itsmembersin2010were:

•Sir William Castell LVO,ChairmanoftheWellcomeTrust.PreviouslyPresidentandCEOofGeneralElectricHealthcareandVice-ChairmanoftheGeneralElectricCompany(GE).

•Professor Brian Collins,ChiefScientificAdviserattheDepartmentforTransportandProfessorofInformationSystemsatCranfieldUniversity.

•Clive Cookson,ScienceEditoroftheFinancialTimessince1991,withacareerinjournalismcoveringscience,technologyandpharmaceuticals.

•Professor Ian Diamond,ChiefExecutiveoftheEconomicandSocialResearchCouncil(ESRC)andChairmanoftheExecutiveGroupofResearchCouncilsUK,thestrategicpartnershipoftheUK’ssevenResearchCouncils.

•Professor David Hendry,ProfessorofEconomicsandaFellowofNuffieldCollegeOxford.

•Dr Mike Howse OBE FREng,TechnicalAdvisertoRolls-Royceplc,andpreviouslyDirector,EngineeringandTechnologyatRolls-Royceplc.MemberoftheDefenceScientificAdvisoryCouncil.VisitingProfessoratCranfieldUniversity.

•Professor Sally Macintyre,DirectorofMedicalResearchCouncil’sSocialandPublicHealthSciencesUnit,Glasgow,andamemberoftheWorkingPartyoftheNuffieldCouncilontheethicsofpublichealth.

•Professor Robert Watson,ChiefScientificAdviserattheDepartmentforEnvironment,FoodandRuralAffairs(Defra)andchairofEnvironmentalScienceandScienceDirectoroftheTyndallCentreattheUniversityofEastAnglia.FormerChiefScientistattheWorldBankandChairoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange.

High-Level Stakeholder Group for Global Food and Farming Futures•Chair–JimPaiceMP,

MinisterofStateforAgricultureandFood,DepartmentforEnvironment,FoodandRuralAffairs

•Chair–StephenO’BrienMP,ParliamentaryUnder-SecretaryofStateforInternationalDevelopment,DepartmentforInternationalDevelopment

•ProfessorSirJohnBeddington,GovernmentChiefScientificAdviser,GovernmentOfficeforScience

•DrPedroArcuri,Coordinator,EMBRAPALabexEuropeEmpresaBrasileiradePesquisaAgropecuária

•DrTariqBanuri,Director,DivisionforSustainableDevelopment,UN

•DrJohnBarrett,DeputyDirector,PolicyandResearchDivision,DFID

• JohnBensted-Smith,Director,Directorate-GeneralforAgriculture,EuropeanCommission

•SamBickersteth,Headofprogrammepolicyteam,Oxfam

•Prof.JoachimvonBraun,DirectorGeneral,InternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute(IFPRI)

•EckhardDeutscher,representedbyStephenGroff,Deputy-Director,DevelopmentCo-operationDirectorateOECD

•DrNinaFedoroff,SpecialAdvisoronScienceandTechnologytotheUSDepartmentofState

• IainFergusonCBE,ChiefExecutive,Tate&LylePLC

•AnneGuttridge,SupplyChainManager,GrainandOilseeds,Europe,Cargill

•BrianHarding,Director,FoodandFarmingGroup,DEFRA

•PatrickHolden,Director,SoilAssociation

•MichaelJacobs,SeniorPolicyAdvisertothePrimeMinister

•Prof.DougKell,ChiefExecutive,BBSRCandRCUK

•PeterKendall,President,NFU

•LaurieLee,Director,AgriculturalDevelopment,GlobalDevelopmentProgram,BillandMelindaGatesFoundation

•DrWillMartin,ActingResearchManager,DevelopmentResearchGroup,Trade,WorldBank

•DrJeffMcNeely,ChiefScientist,InternationalUnionforConservationofNature(IUCN)

•ProfessorRichardMkandawire,HeadoftheComprehensiveAfricanAgricultureDevelopmentProgramme,NewPartnershipforAfrica’sDevelopment(NEPAD)

•AlexanderMueller,AssistantDirector,GeneralSustainableDevelopmentDepartment,FoodandAgriculturalOrganisation(FAO)

•DrNamangaNgongi,Director,CommitteeonAgricultureandRuralDevelopment(AGRA)

•NancyRoman,HeadofPublicPolicyandCommunications,WorldFoodProgramme

•ProfessorAndrewRosenberg,Director,OceanProcessAnalysisLaboratory,UniversityofNewHampshire

•DrHarshaVardhanaSingh,DeputyDirector-General,WorldTradeOrganisation(WTO)


ANNEXES

•AchimSteiner,ExecutiveDirector,UnitedNationsEnvironmentalProgramme(UNEP)

•AjayVashee,President,InternationalFederationofAgriculturalProducers

• JanKeesVis,DirectorSustainableAgriculture,Unilever

•RossWarburton,President,FoodandDrinkFederation

Lead Expert Group for Global Food and Farming Futures •Chair–ProfessorCharlesGodfrayFRS,

HopeProfessor,OxfordUniversity

•ProfessorLawrenceHaddad,DirectoroftheInstituteofDevelopmentStudies,UniversityofSussex

•ProfessorIanCrute,DirectorofRothamstedResearch

•ProfessorJulesPretty,Environment&Society,UniversityofEssex

•DrDavidLawrence,HeadofResearchandDevelopment,Syngenta

•DrCamillaToulmin,DirectorofInternationalInstituteforEnvironmentandDevelopment

•ProfessorShermanRobinson,UniversityofSussex

High-Level Stakeholder Group for Global Environmental Migration•Chair–ProfessorSirJohnBeddington,

GovernmentChiefScientificAdviser,GovernmentOfficeforScience

•AdrianAlsop,DirectorofResearchandInternationalStrategy,EconomicandSocialResearchCouncil(ESRC)

•AndyBearpark,Trustee,CareInternationalUK

•PaulBoyle,ChiefExecutive,EconomicandSocialResearchCouncil(ESRC)

•HeikeBuss,DeputyHeadofUnitInternationalAffairs,EuropeanCommission

•DiarmidCampbell-Lendrum,EnvironmentalEpidemiologist,WorldHealthOrganisation(WHO)

•DavidClary,ChiefScientificAdviser,ForeignandCommonwealthOffice(FCO)

•KrisEbi,ExecutiveDirector,IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)

•RichardEdwards,AlternateExecutiveDirector,AsianDevelopmentBank

• JohnElliott,DirectorofSocialScienceandChiefEconomist,HomeOffice

•ChrisField,Co-ChairWorkingGroup,IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)

• JulienFrey,ThematicOfficerMigration-Asylum,EuropeanCommission

•PauldeGuchteneire,Chief,InternationalMigrationandMulticulturalPoliciesSection,UnitedNationsEducational,ScientificandCulturalOrganization(UNESCO)

•MadeleenHelmer,Director,PoliciesandCommunication,RedCross

•FrankLaczko,ChiefofResearchandPublications,InternationalOrganizationforMigration(IOM)

•MehariMaru,ProgramHead,AfricanConflictPreventionProgram

•RobinMearns,LeadSocialDevelopmentSpecialist,WorldBank

•MarcRichir,Directorate-GeneralExternalRelations,EuropeanCommission

•DanOsborn,ActingHeadofKnowledgeExchange,NaturalEnvironmentResearchCouncil(NERC)

•MarkRobinson,HeadofProfessionforGovernment&ConflictDepartmentforInternationalDevelopment(DFID)

•AurelieSgro,InternationalAffairs,EuropeanCommission

•AgataSobiech,DirectorateGeneralforJustice,FreedomandSecurity–ImmigrationandAsylumUnit,EuropeanCommission

•BernardSilverman,ChiefScientificAdviser,HomeOffice

•BarrieStevens,DeputyDirector,AdvisoryUnit,OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment(OECD)

•GoranSvilanovic,Co-ordinatorofOSCEEconomicandEnvironmentalActivities,OrganizationforSecurity&Co-operationinEurope

•VeerleVandeweerd,Director–Environment&Energy,UnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme(UNDP)

•MargaretaWahlstrom,CommissiononClimateChangeandDevelopment,SwedishGovernment

•AndrewWatkinson,Director,LivingwithEnvironmentalChange

•ProfessorRobertWatson,ChiefScientificAdviser,DepartmentfortheEnvironment,FoodandRuralAffairs(DEFRA)

•DavidWarrilow,HeadofClimateScienceandInternationalEvidence,DepartmentofEnergyandClimateChange(DECC)

•StevenWilson,InterimChiefExecutive,NaturalEnvironmentResearchCouncil(NERC)

•AlanWinters,ChiefEconomist,DepartmentforInternationalDevelopment(DFID)

Lead Expert Group for Global Environmental Migration•Chair–ProfessorRichardBlack,

HeadoftheSchoolofGlobalStudiesattheUniversityofSussex

•ProfessorNeilAdger,EnvironmentalEconomics,SchoolofEnvironmentalSciences,UniversityofEastAngliaandProgrammeLeaderatTyndallCentreforClimateChangeResearch

•ProfessorNigelArnell,Director,WalkerInstituteforClimateSystemResearch,UniversityofReading

•ProfessorStefanDercon,DevelopmentalEconomics,OxfordUniversity

•ProfessorDavidThomas,HeadofSchoolofGeographyandtheEnvironment,OxfordUniversityandDeputyLeaderTyndallCentreforClimateChangeResearch

•ProfessorAndrewGeddes,DepartmentofPolitics,SheffieldUniversity

Lead Expert Group for Computer Trading in Financial Markets •Chair–DameClaraFurseDBE,

formerCEOofLondonStockExchangeandanon-executiveDirectorofLegal&GeneralPlc,AmadeusITHoldingSA,NomuraHoldingsInc

•ProfessorPhilipBond,OxfordCentreforIndustrialand


ANNEXES

AppliedMathematics

•ProfessorDaveCliff,ProfessorofComputerScience,UniversityofBristol

•ProfessorCharlesGoodhart,ProfessorofFinance,LondonSchoolofEconomics

•AndyHaldane,ExecutiveDirectorFinancialStability,BankofEngland

•KevinHoustoun,Chairman,RapidAddition;co-Chair,GlobalTechnicalCommittee,FIXProtocolLimited

•ProfessorOliverLinton,ProfessorofEconometrics,LondonSchoolofEconomics

•DrJean-PierreZigrand,ReaderinFinance,LondonSchoolofEconomics

URN:11/P91

ForesightispartoftheGovernmentOfficeforScience.

Documents

Foresight Review 2010 · Global Food and Farming Futures . calls for urgent action to redesign the food system to address the increasing demands placed upon it. It argues that the