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Feast or Famine:Do we have enough food?
Trajectory Trends Breakfast October 2016
Introduction
Close to home: foods and fads
Brexit, inflation, cost of living, personalised diets, all day eating, health, ethical consumption, food waste, recycling, sustainability
Global Food Issues
The problem: resource scarcity & a growing population
Global Population GDP Per Capita (emerging
and developing world)
7.3bn2015
8.8bn2035
$10,6002015
$14,4002021
World Food Engel Curve
USA
China/India
UNWTO, Government Office for Science, IMF WEO April 2016
Our Food Culture
A brief history of food
Pre-WWII Rationing and post-war
60s/70s – ‘foreign’ food
TV Dinners
Convenience food Modern day plenty
Mealtimes: a thing of the past
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
05:0
0
05:3
0
06:0
0
06:3
0
07:0
0
07:3
0
08:0
0
08:3
0
09:0
0
09:3
0
10:0
0
10:3
0
11:0
0
11:3
0
12:0
0
12:3
0
13:0
0
13:3
0
14:0
0
14:3
0
15:0
0
15:3
0
16:0
0
16:3
0
17:0
0
17:3
0
18:0
0
18:3
0
19:0
0
19:3
0
20:0
0
20:3
0
21:0
0
21:3
0
22:0
0
22:3
0
23:0
0
% of people eating, weekdays (UK)
1974 2016
BBC Daily Life 1974, Trajectory’s Study of Time 2016
10:30 – 2.05m
people having brunch
16:10 – 1.5m
people having afternoon meal
The role of food
11%
34%55%
Health Enjoyment Practicality
22%
39%
39%
1995 2013
Driving shoppers’
consumption decisions
Appetite for Change, Kantar 2014
Health and Personalisation
Food Poverty
8%
33%
21%
25%24%21%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Foods & drinks high in fat
and/or sugar
Fruit & vegetables
Eatwell plate comparison for low
income and all households
Eatwell plate recommendations
2014 - all households
2014 - low income (decile 1)
Source: Ipsos MORI; Household Finances Research, July 2016 / Food Statistics Pocketbook 2015; Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs
In 2014,
62% of the food
we ate was grown
in the UK
Only 73% could
have been grown
in the UK
Opportunities for change
Technology to the rescue
Robotics Agriculture Synthetics
Local food systems
Implications
Two-tier food systems
For an elite, locally grown, healthy food For the rest, increasingly processed food
“[There will be] a two-class food system. One class will eat industrialized food produced as
cheaply as possible at the expense of its workers and natural resources. The other will enjoy
home gardens and locally and sustainably produced food, at greater cost.”
- Professor Marion Nestle, NYU
New health priorities & the assault on pleasure
59.3%
40.2%
35.5% 35.2%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
Dementia Cancer Diabetes Heart/BP
Growth in illness
prevalence 2010-2035
Source: British Household Panel Survey/English Longitudinal Study of Ageing/Trajectory
Forced changes of diet
Summary
Current food trends are unsustainable – demand will outstrip supply
Technology changes can take us so far, but the dangers extend to health and stability
Opportunities for change are apparent, with social, commercial and political implications
The role of food in our lives is changing: more expressive, personalised, performative
Unpalatable changes to diet are inevitable
With new diets and pressures, new social rules and taboos govern behaviour
Trajectory
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Tom Johnson
Director
