Evaluation of FMI’s

New Forecast Model

of Surface Friction- Preliminary results/discussion…

Pertti Nurmi

Marjo Hippi, Ilkka Juga

pertti.nurmi@fmi.fi www.fmi.fi

SIRWEC (ID-21) Quebec City 5-7 February 2010 2pertti.nurmi@fmi.fi

Background

Research funded by EU_FP7_ROADIDEA project

WP3: Method and model development Friction model

WP6: Pilot services Testing the methods in practice

WP8: Validation and evaluation !

WP9: Dissemination ”spread the message”

Follow-up to SIRWEC_ROADIDEA paper by Hippi et al. ID-15

Closely associated with :

EU_COST Action TU0702 ID-45 (SIRWEC, Thu 5.2.10, 17:15)

EUREKA/Celtic Project WiSafeCar

SIRWEC (ID-21) Quebec City 5-7 February 2010 3pertti.nurmi@fmi.fi

Road Weather Model

. . .

. . .

. . .

10 km

Modelresolution

Driving atmospheric NWP model

Global ………....……. RegionalECMWF HIRLAM

DrivingatmosphericNWP modelRoad Weather

SIRWEC (ID-21) Quebec City 5-7 February 2010 4pertti.nurmi@fmi.fi

Temperature• road temperature• air temperature• air dew point

Incoming radiation• long wave• short wave

Precipitation and storages• water prec. mm/h ( ), mm ( )• water storage (- -)• snow prec. mm/h ( ), mm ( )• snow storage (--)• ice storages (-o- ; --)

Road index• primary• secondary ooooooo

snowicy

partly icyfrost

wet snowwet

dampdry

Roa

d in

dex

Tem

per

atu

reP

reci

pit

atio

nR

adia

tion

Win

d s

pee

d

WindTemperature (air) Dew point (air) Temperature (road)

water (mm/h) ; snow (cm/h)

long wave (W/m2)

water (mm) ; snow (cm)

short wave (W/m2)

INTENSITY :

Traffic idx :

: SUM | STOR x 10

Road Weather Model

Output :

SIRWEC (ID-21) Quebec City 5-7 February 2010 5pertti.nurmi@fmi.fi

Ice / snow

Water

Dry surf

… based on friction as observed by the DSC111 sensor

… utilizing road weather model output as predictor variables for the regression equations:

Statistical Model

for Friction :

SIRWEC (ID-21) Quebec City 5-7 February 2010 6pertti.nurmi@fmi.fi

Station: AnjalaRelationship, winter 2007-08

Station: AnjalaIndependent data, winter 2008-09

Statistical Model

for Friction :

SIRWEC (ID-21) Quebec City 5-7 February 2010 7pertti.nurmi@fmi.fi

Station: UttiRelationship, winter 2007-08

Station: UttiIndependent data, winter 2008-09

Statistical Model

for Friction :

SIRWEC (ID-21) Quebec City 5-7 February 2010 8pertti.nurmi@fmi.fi

Source: Finnish Road Administration

0.15 0.30

Road Weather

Classification :

SIRWEC (ID-21) Quebec City 5-7 February 2010 9pertti.nurmi@fmi.fi

Categorical Model

Validation

(ref. D. Stephenson, C. Ferro)

(ref. Hogan et al.)

Trad. Scores

SIRWEC (ID-21) Quebec City 5-7 February 2010 10pertti.nurmi@fmi.fi

Categorical Model

ValidationECMWF, 2003 - 2009 / +42h (120 stations)

0,0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

1,0

>=0,3mm >=4,5mm >=10,0mm >=20,0mm >=30,0mm >=40,0mm

TS

ETS

EDS +42h

EDS' +42h

SEDS +42h

PSS=KSS

~ #80000 ~ #22000 ~ #7000 ~ #1400 ~ #370 ~ #110 cases

SIRWEC (ID-21) Quebec City 5-7 February 2010 11pertti.nurmi@fmi.fi

Station: Anjala

0.15 0.30

Categorical Model

Validation Friction forecasts

SIRWEC (ID-21) Quebec City 5-7 February 2010 12pertti.nurmi@fmi.fi

Station: Utti

0.15 0.30

Categorical Model

Validation Friction forecasts

SIRWEC (ID-21) Quebec City 5-7 February 2010 13pertti.nurmi@fmi.fi

Station: Anjala Station: Utti

0.15 0.30 0.15 0.30

Categorical Model

Validation Friction forecasts

SIRWEC (ID-21) Quebec City 5-7 February 2010 14pertti.nurmi@fmi.fi

Novelty Applications

Pulp Friction

…remember the movie ?

SIRWEC (ID-21) Quebec City 5-7 February 2010 15pertti.nurmi@fmi.fi

Novelty Applications

http://pilot.roadidea.eu/mobilefriction/Default.aspx

SIRWEC (ID-21) Quebec City 5-7 February 2010 16pertti.nurmi@fmi.fi

… within the Celtic /WiSafeCar Project

Wireless traffic service platform

Wireless data transfer

Hybrid networking

Mobile application validation

Vehicle vs. mobile data

Service updating

Friction forecasts

Road weather

Incident warnings

TSBS

TSBS

Road weather station

Driving route

Potential piloting

Thank You forYour Attention !Thank You forYour Attention !

Further information :

http://www.roadidea.eu

http://wisafecar.gforge.uni.lu/

http://tu0702.inrets.fr/