Evaluation of FMI’s
New Forecast Model
of Surface Friction- Preliminary results/discussion…
Pertti Nurmi
Marjo Hippi, Ilkka Juga
[email protected] www.fmi.fi
SIRWEC (ID-21) Quebec City 5-7 February 2010 [email protected]
Background
Research funded by EU_FP7_ROADIDEA project
WP3: Method and model development Friction model
WP6: Pilot services Testing the methods in practice
WP8: Validation and evaluation !
WP9: Dissemination ”spread the message”
Follow-up to SIRWEC_ROADIDEA paper by Hippi et al. ID-15
Closely associated with :
EU_COST Action TU0702 ID-45 (SIRWEC, Thu 5.2.10, 17:15)
EUREKA/Celtic Project WiSafeCar
SIRWEC (ID-21) Quebec City 5-7 February 2010 [email protected]
Road Weather Model
. . .
. . .
. . .
10 km
Modelresolution
Driving atmospheric NWP model
Global ………....……. RegionalECMWF HIRLAM
DrivingatmosphericNWP modelRoad Weather
SIRWEC (ID-21) Quebec City 5-7 February 2010 [email protected]
Temperature• road temperature• air temperature• air dew point
Incoming radiation• long wave• short wave
Precipitation and storages• water prec. mm/h ( ), mm ( )• water storage (- -)• snow prec. mm/h ( ), mm ( )• snow storage (--)• ice storages (-o- ; --)
Road index• primary• secondary ooooooo
snowicy
partly icyfrost
wet snowwet
dampdry
Roa
d in
dex
Tem
per
atu
reP
reci
pit
atio
nR
adia
tion
Win
d s
pee
d
WindTemperature (air) Dew point (air) Temperature (road)
water (mm/h) ; snow (cm/h)
long wave (W/m2)
water (mm) ; snow (cm)
short wave (W/m2)
INTENSITY :
Traffic idx :
: SUM | STOR x 10
Road Weather Model
Output :
SIRWEC (ID-21) Quebec City 5-7 February 2010 [email protected]
Ice / snow
Water
Dry surf
… based on friction as observed by the DSC111 sensor
… utilizing road weather model output as predictor variables for the regression equations:
Statistical Model
for Friction :
SIRWEC (ID-21) Quebec City 5-7 February 2010 [email protected]
Station: AnjalaRelationship, winter 2007-08
Station: AnjalaIndependent data, winter 2008-09
Statistical Model
for Friction :
SIRWEC (ID-21) Quebec City 5-7 February 2010 [email protected]
Station: UttiRelationship, winter 2007-08
Station: UttiIndependent data, winter 2008-09
Statistical Model
for Friction :
SIRWEC (ID-21) Quebec City 5-7 February 2010 [email protected]
Source: Finnish Road Administration
0.15 0.30
Road Weather
Classification :
SIRWEC (ID-21) Quebec City 5-7 February 2010 [email protected]
Categorical Model
Validation
(ref. D. Stephenson, C. Ferro)
(ref. Hogan et al.)
Trad. Scores
SIRWEC (ID-21) Quebec City 5-7 February 2010 [email protected]
Categorical Model
ValidationECMWF, 2003 - 2009 / +42h (120 stations)
0,0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1,0
>=0,3mm >=4,5mm >=10,0mm >=20,0mm >=30,0mm >=40,0mm
TS
ETS
EDS +42h
EDS' +42h
SEDS +42h
PSS=KSS
~ #80000 ~ #22000 ~ #7000 ~ #1400 ~ #370 ~ #110 cases
SIRWEC (ID-21) Quebec City 5-7 February 2010 [email protected]
Station: Anjala
0.15 0.30
Categorical Model
Validation Friction forecasts
SIRWEC (ID-21) Quebec City 5-7 February 2010 [email protected]
Station: Utti
0.15 0.30
Categorical Model
Validation Friction forecasts
SIRWEC (ID-21) Quebec City 5-7 February 2010 [email protected]
Station: Anjala Station: Utti
0.15 0.30 0.15 0.30
Categorical Model
Validation Friction forecasts
SIRWEC (ID-21) Quebec City 5-7 February 2010 [email protected]
Novelty Applications
Pulp Friction
…remember the movie ?
SIRWEC (ID-21) Quebec City 5-7 February 2010 [email protected]
Novelty Applications
http://pilot.roadidea.eu/mobilefriction/Default.aspx
SIRWEC (ID-21) Quebec City 5-7 February 2010 [email protected]
… within the Celtic /WiSafeCar Project
Wireless traffic service platform
Wireless data transfer
Hybrid networking
Mobile application validation
Vehicle vs. mobile data
Service updating
Friction forecasts
Road weather
Incident warnings
TSBS
TSBS
Road weather station
Driving route
Potential piloting
Thank You forYour Attention !Thank You forYour Attention !
Further information :
http://www.roadidea.eu
http://wisafecar.gforge.uni.lu/
http://tu0702.inrets.fr/