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Central Asia Energy-Water Development Program
Working Regionally for National Shared Prosperity
3
THE W
ORLD
BAN
K
THE W
ORLD
BAN
K
THE W
ORLD
BAN
K
Central Asia is a dynamic and geographically diverse
region enjoying steady economic growth and new
development opportunities. A key element in the
continued growth, prosperity, stability, and well-being
of the population is the smart management of the
region’s energy and water resources.
Although Central Asia is increasingly globalized,
national aspirations, such as food security and reliable
energy services, still drive development decisions. The
competition for energy markets and the anticipated
Development Aspirations of Central Asia
scarcity of water resources have strained relations
among the countries of the region. Climate change
and population growth have the potential to strain
resources and relations further.
The Central Asia Energy-Water Development Program
(CAEWDP) recognizes that strengthened cooperation
at the national and regional levels can lead to increased
incomes, poverty reduction, sustainable development,
shared prosperity, and political stability across the region.
Working at the national and regional levels
to manage water and energy resources
can bring:
• Reliable energy supply and reduced winter energy shortages • Higher earnings generated by exporting and trading energy• Greater agricultural productivity through more reliable access to water• Improved water quality and reduced land degradation• Better adaptation to climate change and water/hydrological variability • Cost-effective infrastructure development • Enhanced environment for international and private investment for both water and energy
Central Asia is endowed with water and an abun-
dance of rich and varied energy resources—hy-
dropower, oil, gas, and coal. These resources can
support increased agricultural production and have
the potential to exceed domestic energy demand
to supply export markets.
However, water and energy resources across the
region are highly unbalanced and access to them
is uneven. In some cases there is a lack of physical
infrastructure and the outdated systems that exist
are unreliable and inefficient. Some communities
cannot meet citizens’ electricity needs during
certain times of the year, while others lack
adequate water supply.
The Benefits of Smart Management of Natural Resources
Change of Water Availability in Central Asia
EuropeCentral Asia
8.4
5.9
2.55
4.2
10987654321
thousand m3/capita/year
years1960 1970 1980 1990 2010 2020 2030 2040 20502000
Categories of water availability>1.7 significant1.0-1.7 not significant<1.0 shortage
Over the past 40 years, water supply in Central Asia declined from 8.4 th. m3/person/year to 2.5 th. m3/person/year. By 2030, at the current rate of population growth in Central Asia, this reduction will reach a critical value of less than 1.7 th. m3/year. And it is still necessary to an-nually provide an additional 500-700 million m3 of water to sustain the population of Central Asia even at very low levels of consumption.
Source: EC IFAS
CHINA
KAZAKHSTAN
UZBEKISTAN
TURKMENISTAN
TAJIKISTAN
AFGHANISTAN
22,62916,000
4,0802,549
58
KYRGYZ REPUBLIC590
5580
52664,589
2,85180
1,65732
2,6988268
2,5494
51450725412
Total Fossil Fuel MTOECoal MTOECrude Oil MTOEGas MTOEHydro MTOE
MTOE=million tons of oil equivalent
Source: Energy Supply/Demand balances and Infrastructure Constraints in Central Asia. Asian
Development Bank. 2009 2
5
THE W
ORLD
BAN
K
Water
Melting snow from the high peaks of the Himalayan
water tower and precipitation provide the seasonal flows
to the two major rivers that feed the Aral Sea Basin:
the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya. The origins of the
Syr Darya are the snow-covered slopes of the Tien Shan
Mountains in Kyrgyz Republic. The Amu Darya originates
from the glaciated northern slopes of the Hindu Kush and
from Wakhan in the Pamir Highlands in Afghanistan and
the Pamirs in Tajikistan.
Water is a vital but disparate resource across the ba-
sin. In the summer, both the Syr Darya and the Amu
Darya rivers have the potential to provide abundant
low-carbon hydropower for the mountainous Kyrgyz
Republic and Tajikistan. Downstream, these rivers
are vital arteries for livelihoods—providing water for
agriculture and local fisheries, and sustaining envi-
ronmental ecosystems, human health, and electricity
generation across Central Asia.
However, the water sector faces many challenges: 50
percent of irrigated lands are affected by salinization
and waterlogging as a result of poor irrigation and
drainage systems. In Turkmenistan that number is 96
percent, compromising both agricultural productivity
and water quality.
Improvements to Increase Efficiency National governments are struggling to rehabilitate
aging irrigation and drainage infrastructure and
implement innovative irrigation technologies to ad-
dress these problems and improve food security and
resilience to hydrologic variability. Looking ahead,
population growth and the need for increased agri-
cultural production will continue to strain the region’s
water resources, making smart water management
both nationally and regionally a key factor for the
livelihoods of farmers and agriculture. Across Kazakh-
stan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, over 10 million
hectares of agricultural land depend on these waters
for irrigation, where agriculture on average contrib-
utes 11 percent to these economies’ GDP. Proposed
improvements in irrigation efficiency could begin to
alleviate the problem. For example, in Uzbekistan, a
1 percent increase in water pumping efficiency would
result in savings of $10 million per year; and a 10
percent increase in water pumping efficiency would
result in regional savings of $188 million per year.
Water Resources in Central Asia
Photo to the left and cover © Daniel Korzhonov, Moscow, Russia.4
Karakalpakstan 7.9
Dashoguz 6.5
Horezm 4.4(UZB)
Lebap 3.9
Karakum Canal 11
Amu-Bukhara 5.2
UZB 5.3
Karshi 4.19
0.5
0.6 1.5
0.3
1.4 UZB
TJK 6.6
TJK 2
KYR 0.1
KYR 3UZB 10
UZB 10
KAZ 10
Great Turkmen Collector(under construction)
Dashoguz Collector(under construction)
Planned collector
Prospective expansionof irrigation
33.3
Rivers of Northern Afghanistan: 6.1
Rivers ofFerghana Valley: 8
20.25.6
5.3
1.5
0.9
1.2
40.2
15
4
2
9(37)
1
1
5(38)
Ysik-Kol
Aydar Lake
SarygamyshLake
A r a l K u m
Northern Aral Sea
Golden Age Lake(under construction)
Lake Balkhash
Kara Bogaz Gol
Southern Aral Sea
seasonal lake
Ili
Indus Chen
ab
Tejen
Murgab
Hari Rud
Zarafshan
Syr Darya
Surhandarya
Kafarnigan
Kara Darya
AhangaranNaryn
Panj
Kashkadarya
Chirchik-Charvak
SherabadAmu Darya
Vakhsh
Kokc
ha
Kunduz
K A Z A K H S T A N
T U R K M E N I S T A N
U Z B E K I S T A N
K Y R G Y Z R E P.
T A J I K I S T A N
A F G H A N I S T A NI .R . OFIRAN
C H I N A
Ashgabat
Bishkek
Tashkent
Dushanbe
Kabul
Aralsk
Muynak
0 250 500 1000 km750
© Zoï Environment Network
Irrigated lands
Mountain regions above 2000 metres
Source: water flow and water use data www.cawater-info.net
Water discharge(km3/year)
7030105
Average river flow and water intake by canals(km3/year)
Uzbekistan
Population (millions)GNI per capita (US$)
GDP (billions US$)% rural population w/access to an
improved water source (2010)Land area (1,000 sq. km)
16.8$9,780$203.586%
2,699
5.6$990$6.582%
192
29.8$1,720$51.181%
425
5.2$5,410$35.254%
470
8$880$7.664%
140
Turkmenistan
Tajikistan
Kyrgyz Republic
Kazakhstan
Population (millions)GNI per capita (US$)
GDP (billions US$)% rural population w/access to an
improved water source (2010)Land area (1,000 sq. km)
Population (millions)GNI per capita (US$)
GDP (billions US$)% rural population w/access to an
improved water source (2010)Land area (1,000 sq. km)
Population (millions)GNI per capita (US$)
GDP (billions US$)% rural population w/access to an
improved water source (2010)Land area (1,000 sq. km)
Population (millions)GNI per capita (US$)
GDP (billions US$)% rural population w/access to an
improved water source (2010)Land area (1,000 sq. km)
WATER RESOURCES OF THE ARAL SEA BASIN
Source: World Bank 2012
6 7
© RIC
HA
RD FU
GG
LE
THE W
ORLD
BAN
K
Central Asia is rich with diverse energy resources. In
the downstream countries of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan,
and Turkmenistan there are significant reserves of oil,
gas, and coal. The upstream countries, Tajikistan and
Kyrgyz Republic, are rich in undeveloped hydropower
potential. The diversity of such a mixed energy system
offers an opportunity to meet all countries’ electricity
needs on a seasonal basis in the most cost-effective
and environmentally friendly manner—taking maxi-
mum advantage of abundant low-cost hydropower
in the summer, and having the reliability of thermal
resources in winter when the cold climate limits hydro-
power supplies.
EnergyCurrent energy systems are becoming less reliable as
the Central Asia power system deteriorates. The re-
gion is trading 90 percent less energy than in the early
1990s. Although new transmission lines linking north
and south in Kazakhstan and Tajikistan improve the
distribution situation, these plentiful resources do not
meet domestic needs and 2 million households across
the region are affected by winter heat and power
shortages per year.
The challenges are to maintain and rehabilitate infra-
structure, provide new generation infrastructure for
energy-hungry, growing economies, and explore new
models for energy trade—both within and outside the
five-country community.
Updating Infrastructure to Meet Needs
8 9
THE W
ORLD
BAN
K w
ww
.energia.gr
Mo
re e
ffec
tive
en
erg
y an
d w
ater
man
agem
ent,
incl
ud
ing
at
the
reg
ion
al le
vel,
cou
ld
acce
lera
te in
vest
men
t, p
rom
ote
eco
no
mic
gro
wth
an
d s
tab
le li
velih
oo
ds
and
imp
rove
en
viro
nm
enta
l qu
alit
y:
• $2
bill
ion
savi
ngs
are
avai
labl
e ov
er 3
yea
rs f
rom
re-
st
orin
g en
ergy
tra
de w
ithin
Cen
tral
Asi
a an
d ad
ded
envi
ronm
enta
l ben
efits
in re
duce
d gr
eenh
ouse
gas
emis
sion
s.
• $2
00 m
illio
n pe
r ye
ar in
new
reve
nues
fro
m e
nerg
y
ex
port
s to
Sou
th A
sia
from
the
initi
al p
hase
s of
the
CA
SA 1
000
proj
ect.
• In
one
Cen
tral
Asia
n co
untr
y, co
mpr
ehen
sive
ener
gy e
ffici
ency
mea
sure
s co
uld
redu
ce e
nerg
y
co
sts
by $
12.3
bill
ion
by 2
030,
avo
idin
g in
vest
-
men
ts in
new
gen
erat
ing
plan
ts a
nd re
duci
ng
fu
el c
onsu
mpt
ion.
Sour
ce: W
orld
Ban
k 20
14
CE
NT
RA
L A
SIA
EN
ER
GY
IN
FR
AS
TR
UC
TU
RE
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Orda
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limar
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sion)
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rSogd
iana
Surk
han
Char
ikar
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l 300
MWNa
ghlu
Pesh
awar
1300
MW
Dush
anbe
Nure
k 300
0 MW
Sang
tuda
500
/220
kV an
d Con
verte
r Stat
ion
Tajik
Fang
-Yagn
ob Co
al TP
P 150
0 MW
Kaira
kkum
126M
W
Novo
-Ang
ren
2100
MW (u
nder
expa
nsion
)
Syrd
arya
300
0MW
Uzbe
kiston
Tash
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, EBR
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ank)
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kV
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167
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Agad
yr
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W
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STA
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kek
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C
Kzyl-
Orda
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kul’ Ta
limar
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rSogd
iana
Surk
han
Char
ikar
Kabu
l 300
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ghlu
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awar
1300
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anbe
Nure
k 300
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Sang
tuda
500
/220
kV an
d Con
verte
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ion
Tajik
Fang
-Yagn
ob Co
al TP
P 150
0 MW
Kaira
kkum
126M
W
Novo
-Ang
ren
2100
MW (u
nder
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nsion
)
Syrd
arya
300
0MW
Uzbe
kiston
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kent
18
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arda
raCh
arva
kGa
zalke
ntAn
gren
Loch
in
Kurp
sai 8
00 M
W
Tokt
ogul
120
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-Bel’
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ash
1320
MW
(ADB
, EBR
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rea E
xim B
ank)
Balkh
ash
2640
MW
Kara
-Kec
he 1
200
MW
Khud
jand
Datk
a 500
/220
kV
Sang
tuda
220
0 MW
Sang
tuda
167
0 MW
Agad
yr
Yukg
res
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kazg
an
Shym
kent
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oye
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ara (
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ovsk
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ets
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ume
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anbe
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70˚E
75˚E
45˚N
40˚N
35˚N
50˚N
30˚N
45˚N
50˚N
30˚N
35˚N
40˚N
65˚E
80˚E
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0 015
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OPER
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DER
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TRUC
TION
CEN
TRA
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SIA
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ER N
ETW
ORK
S
PROS
PECTI
VE
This
map
was
pro
duce
d by
the
Map
Des
ign
Uni
t of T
he W
orld
Ban
k.Th
e bo
unda
ries
, col
ors,
den
omin
atio
ns a
nd a
ny o
ther
info
rmat
ion
show
n on
this
map
do
not i
mpl
y, o
n th
e pa
rt o
f The
Wor
ld B
ank
Gro
up, a
ny ju
dgm
ent o
n th
e le
gal s
tatu
s of
any
terr
itory
, or a
nyen
dors
emen
t or a
ccep
tanc
e of
suc
h bo
unda
ries
.G
SDPM
Map
Des
ign
Uni
t
10 11
12
THE W
ORLD
BAN
K
Climate Change in Central Asia
Central Asia is one of the most vulnerable regions to
climate change. The World Bank’s 2009 report, Adapting
to Climate Change in Central Asia, notes that average
temperatures in the region have already increased by
0.5°C and are projected to increase by 1.6° to 2.6°C
by 2030-50. Regionally, climate change is projected to
lead to higher temperatures, changes in precipitation,
increased incidents of flooding and more severe and
prolonged droughts, with corresponding variable water
availability. The region’s vulnerability to climate change is
exacerbated by inefficient resource use and aging infra-
structure, limited enforcement of regulations, and an
inherited severely degraded environment.
Climate change affects all sectors vital to economic growth
and development in the region, not least of which are
energy, agriculture, and disaster risk management that also
cut across national borders. Weather-related disasters are
currently estimated at 1% of GDP per year in Tajikistan and
Kyrgyz Republic. Adaptation will be a requirement, rather
than an option, for the region.
0
JAN
2,000
400
800
1,200
1,600
Average Seasonal Flow of the Syr Daryawater dischargem3/second
FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC
irrigation season
Flow today
Projection 2071-2100(A1B emission scenario)
Source: Shiklomanov 2009
201019901970195019301910
Level of first measurement
Cum
ulat
ive
mas
s ba
lanc
e (5
,000
mm
w.e
. uni
ts)
GolubinSary-TorTuyuksuKarabatkakAbramovUrumqi No. 1
Seasonal Flow of the Syr Darya Projected to Decrease?
Glacial Melting Accelerating in Central Asia?
Policies and interventions to address climate change
vulnerabilities have the potential to drive innovation,
open up new areas of investment and private sector
activity, as well as promote plant-level efficiencies and
economic savings. For example, a clear plan to align
agricultural policies, develop capabilities of key agri-
cultural institutions, and make needed investments
in infrastructure and on-farm improvements can help
offset risks. In the energy sector, energy efficiency
and diversification provide both immediate economic
benefits and help build long-term climate resilience.
Water demand in both sectors will emphasize the
need for effective national and transboundary water
management.
Source: Nature Climate Change, DOI:10.1038/NCLIMATE1592
13
14
In downstream countries (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turk-menistan), the focus will be to improve the productivity and efficiency of irrigation systems, address impacts of climate change, and help build resilience to hydrologic variability.
In upstream countries (Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan), the focus will be to identify and secure new sources of winter energy supply and manage current shortages to reduce the burden on households and associated economic impacts on small business, commercial enterprises, and industry.
The Central Asia Energy-Water Development Program (CAEWDP) is building energy and water security by leverag-ing the benefits of enhanced cooperation. It aims to strengthen security through partnerships with all five Cen-tral Asian countries plus Afghanistan in regional initiatives and with development partners in the context of a chang-ing global environment. The program delivers substantial technical expertise, analytics, and diagnostics for informed
decision making and smart investments. Global experience in transboundary water management encourages cross-border dialogue on coordinated management of energy and water resources while strengthening the institutions that manage these resources. Regional dialogue has been significantly bolstered by the transparent knowledge plat-form the program provides.
Central Asia Energy-Water Development Program With initial activities successfully underway, the CAEWDP has established several impor-tant “building blocks.” These activities identified critical infrastructure, institutional and analytical constraints, and helped establish long-term priorities for the program.
Promoting irrigation efficiency
Methodology for prioritizing irrigation investments for water efficiency
Analysis of economic benefits of power trade
Winter energy crisis study and action plan
A basin-level water-energy model based on earth-systems satellite imagery and remote sensing data
Regional climate change knowledge forumRegional
hydrometeorology program
EARLY EFFORTS OF THE CAEWDP AND WORKS IN PROGRESS
“Regional programs offer substantial potential to achieve results on development issues…. Regional
projects have successfully built new assets and protected existing ones in ways expected to benefit all
participating countries.”
World Bank Group Independent Evaluation
Energy Development Water Productivity Energy-Water Linkages Promote and study high-value energy invest-ments that focus on winter energy security,
energy efficiency, trade and accountability, infra-structure planning and institutional development.
Enhance the productive and efficient use of water in agriculture and energy sectors through capacity strengthening, institutional strengthen-
ing, and investment planning.
Improve the understanding of linkages between energy and water at the national and regional
levels through dialogue, energy-water modeling, regional hydrometeorology and exploring the
future impact of climate change.
Focus 3rd Aral Sea Basin Management Program National investment plans for new and rehabilitated infrastructure for irrigation efficiency
Introduction of new technologies, and efficient delivery of water supply services
Focus Energy-water modeling Regional hydrometeorology Climate vulnerability Energy-water dialogue Knowledge portal (web-based open access data)
The Three Pillars of the Central Asia Energy-Water Development Program (CAEWDP)
Focus Winter energy security including infrastructure planning Energy trade
Energy accountability
Energy efficiency
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Partnerships are critical to the rational use of water and energy in Central AsiaRegional dialogue and cooperation are necessary to manage energy and water resources in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan as well as Afghanistan. The CAEWDP brings together national and regional governments, civil society organizations, an engaged international panel of advisors, donors and development partners, and international financial institutions such as the World Bank.
The program is founded on partnerships with governments so that program activities reflect national aspirations and priorities. CAEWDP also partners with regional organizations whose mandates are to convene discussions on regional issues, such as the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS). Cooperation from the development and financing communities assists the CAEWDP to meet program goals, collaborate on methodologies, provide technical assistance, or contribute funds for core program activities.
A Multi-Donor Trust Fund has been established with cumulative contribu-tions of over US$10 million, including contributions from Switzerland ($3.71 million), the United Kingdom ($5.27 million) and the European Commission ($1.35 million). The trust fund’s Donor Advisory Committee provides strategic guidance to the CAEWDP. The CAEWDP has worked jointly with other development partners on specific activities and projects, in both water and energy, including the Swiss Development Corporation (SDC), the United Nations Centre for Preventive Diplomacy (UNRCCA), the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the Islamic Development Bank (IsDB), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), Germany (GIZ), the United States (USAID), and the Aga Khan Foundation.
The World Bank welcomes other potential partners to support liveli-hoods, economic growth, peace, and security in this important region of the world.
© Andrei Shevelov, Almaty, Kazakhstan
For further information, please contact:Daryl Fields, CAEWDP Program Manager, World Bank, [email protected] Abena Akuffo-Akoto, CAEWDP Partnership Specialist, World Bank, [email protected]