Energy policy and long term energy demand in Croatian households sector

Tomislav Pukšec1 dipl.ing.Prof.dr.sc. Brian Vad Mathiesen2

Prof.dr.sc. Neven Duić1

1University of Zagreb, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture2Aalborg University

20th HED Forum

Zagreb, 18th of November 2011

Security of energy supply• Import dependence from 50% to 70% by 2030

Employment and regional development policies

• Deindustrialization and trade liberalization• “Boosting growth and jobs by meeting our

climate change commitments” Mitigation of global warming Environmental protection Sustainable development

EU energy context

20-20-20 till 2020 20% RES 20% CO2 emission reduction 20% less energy consumed

Energy - climate package 2008

Decarbonising power Renewables Carbon capture and storage (CCS) Nuclear?

Four pillars of Post carbon society Renewable Energy Buildings as Positive Power Plants Energy Storage Smart grids and Plug-in Vehicles

Towards 2050

Main goal to develop the methodology and mathematic model of future energy demand of a households sector (HED Model - “Households Energy Demand” Model)

Implementation of energy regulationBuild upon already existing energy planning tools developed at

the Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval ArchitectureMethodology applicable to other countries

HED Model tested on Croatia as a case study

Motivation

Methodology

Bottom up approach Data intensiveModeling the base year (2008)Describing all the mechanismsSummarizing all sub-categories which leads to final resultsModeling long term energy demand of households sector

Making a referent scenarioPossibilities of constant modifications and add-onsComparing the results with the National energy strategy

MethodologyDeveloping methodology to project official national energy strategy

Period between 2030. – 2050. DemographyGDP/capitaEnergy intensity

Methodology

Wedges approachHow does a certain measure influence future energy demand

Methodology – transport wedges

Methodology – industry wedges

Final energy demand –Croatian industry sector (strategy)Final energy demand –Croatian industry sector (modeled referent scenario)

Modeling available surfaces

Geographic distributionDifferent usage typesRenovation/demolition/building tempo

Heat demand

Heat losses Transmission and ventilation

Heat gains

Solar and internal

Methodology – households sector

Cooling degree days

Electrical appliances

Specific energy consumption and energy efficiency

Cooking & hot water Using available normsSurvey/literature data specific consumption and energy efficiency

Fuel and technology mixes

Cooling demand

Methodology – households sector

UTJECAJ TEHNOLOGIJE I FINANCIJSKIH MEHANIZAMA NA POTROŠNJU ENERGIJE

13.

Zagreb, 21.04.23.

Results

Referent scenario

3 refurbishment scenarios

3 different fuel mix options

Comparison with the national energy strategy

Results – impact of zero energy buildings on distribution of final heat demand

Results – different yearly refurbishment rates

Results – referent scenario

Results – comparison with the National energy strategy (2030-2050 is modeled based on previously presented methodology)

Results – biomass option

Results – biomass option

Results – district heating option

Results – district heating option

Results – heat pumps option

Results – heat pumps option

UTJECAJ TEHNOLOGIJE I FINANCIJSKIH MEHANIZAMA NA POTROŠNJU ENERGIJE

Zagreb, 21.04.23.

Results

Conclusion

Methodology is applicable to other energy systems and its households sector

Great possibilities for energy savings

Key element is enforcing current building codes for all buildings that are being built or refurbished

Results show that heat pumps ill have significant role in future households allowing significant savings regarding final energy demand.

One of the conclusions drawn from the presented results is the fact that Croatian national energy demand scenarios regarding households sector needs to be considered with a certain reserve since bottom up modelling shows a certain room for energy savings improvements.

Thank you for your attention!

E-mail: neven.duic@fsb.hr

Department of Energy, Power Engineering and Environment