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Energy policy and long term energy demand in Croatian households sector
Tomislav Pukšec1 dipl.ing.Prof.dr.sc. Brian Vad Mathiesen2
Prof.dr.sc. Neven Duić1
1University of Zagreb, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture2Aalborg University
20th HED Forum
Zagreb, 18th of November 2011
Security of energy supply• Import dependence from 50% to 70% by 2030
Employment and regional development policies
• Deindustrialization and trade liberalization• “Boosting growth and jobs by meeting our
climate change commitments” Mitigation of global warming Environmental protection Sustainable development
EU energy context
20-20-20 till 2020 20% RES 20% CO2 emission reduction 20% less energy consumed
Energy - climate package 2008
Decarbonising power Renewables Carbon capture and storage (CCS) Nuclear?
Four pillars of Post carbon society Renewable Energy Buildings as Positive Power Plants Energy Storage Smart grids and Plug-in Vehicles
Towards 2050
Main goal to develop the methodology and mathematic model of future energy demand of a households sector (HED Model - “Households Energy Demand” Model)
Implementation of energy regulationBuild upon already existing energy planning tools developed at
the Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval ArchitectureMethodology applicable to other countries
HED Model tested on Croatia as a case study
Motivation
Methodology
Bottom up approach Data intensiveModeling the base year (2008)Describing all the mechanismsSummarizing all sub-categories which leads to final resultsModeling long term energy demand of households sector
Making a referent scenarioPossibilities of constant modifications and add-onsComparing the results with the National energy strategy
MethodologyDeveloping methodology to project official national energy strategy
Period between 2030. – 2050. DemographyGDP/capitaEnergy intensity
Methodology
Wedges approachHow does a certain measure influence future energy demand
Methodology – transport wedges
Methodology – industry wedges
Final energy demand –Croatian industry sector (strategy)Final energy demand –Croatian industry sector (modeled referent scenario)
Modeling available surfaces
Geographic distributionDifferent usage typesRenovation/demolition/building tempo
Heat demand
Heat losses Transmission and ventilation
Heat gains
Solar and internal
Methodology – households sector
Cooling degree days
Electrical appliances
Specific energy consumption and energy efficiency
Cooking & hot water Using available normsSurvey/literature data specific consumption and energy efficiency
Fuel and technology mixes
Cooling demand
Methodology – households sector
UTJECAJ TEHNOLOGIJE I FINANCIJSKIH MEHANIZAMA NA POTROŠNJU ENERGIJE
13.
Zagreb, 19.04.23.
Results
Referent scenario
3 refurbishment scenarios
3 different fuel mix options
Comparison with the national energy strategy
Results – impact of zero energy buildings on distribution of final heat demand
Results – different yearly refurbishment rates
Results – referent scenario
Results – comparison with the National energy strategy (2030-2050 is modeled based on previously presented methodology)
Results – biomass option
Results – biomass option
Results – district heating option
Results – district heating option
Results – heat pumps option
Results – heat pumps option
UTJECAJ TEHNOLOGIJE I FINANCIJSKIH MEHANIZAMA NA POTROŠNJU ENERGIJE
Zagreb, 19.04.23.
Results
Conclusion
Methodology is applicable to other energy systems and its households sector
Great possibilities for energy savings
Key element is enforcing current building codes for all buildings that are being built or refurbished
Results show that heat pumps ill have significant role in future households allowing significant savings regarding final energy demand.
One of the conclusions drawn from the presented results is the fact that Croatian national energy demand scenarios regarding households sector needs to be considered with a certain reserve since bottom up modelling shows a certain room for energy savings improvements.
Thank you for your attention!
E-mail: [email protected]
Department of Energy, Power Engineering and Environment
