Upload
others
View
1
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
1
The Demand for Energyof Italian Households
Ivan Faiella
2
Italian Households Energy Demand
Questions
1. What is the consumption of energy of ItalianHouseholds?
2. What have been the main drivers of energy demand inthe past?
3. Is heterogeneity relevant in explaining energy demand?
4. How changes in demographic structure will affectenergy demand in the next decades?
5. How changes in energy prices and surfacetemperatures will affect energy demand in the nextdecades?
3
Italian Households Energy Demand
4
Italian Households Energy Demand
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
19711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008
Mto
e
Petroleum products (HH transport)ElectricitySolid Fuels&RenewablesGasPetroleum Products (heating) estimates
5
Households Energy Prices
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Pric
e in
dex
(200
2=10
0)
Petrol
Gasoil (motor fuel)
Gasoil (heating)
Natural gas
Electricity
Price level (excluding energy)
6
Households Energy Intensity
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
19711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008
Toe
per
M€
(200
0)
Petroleum products (HH transport)ElectricitySolid Fuels&RenewablesGasPetroleum Products
7
The drivers of Households Energy Demand
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
HHs energy intensity (toe per M€ 2000)
HHs energy demand (Mtoe)
8
The drivers of Households Energy Demand
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Change in E/CChange in C/HHChange in HH
High crude oil prices High crude oil pricesLow crude oil prices
9
Households Energy Efficiency
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1990 1995 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
toe
/ca
r
Italy
EU27
Energy consumption of road transport per equivalent car
In Italy, cars are energy-efficient …
1.50
1.55
1.60
1.65
1.70
1.75
1990 1995 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
toe/dw
ellin
g
Italy
EU27
Consumption per dwelling scaled to EU average climate
… but buildings are not!
10
Italian Households Energy Expenditures
11
Households Energy Expenditures: trends
Ratio of energy expenditures to total expenditures (1997-2008)
private transport
heating
electricity
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
12
Households Energy Expenditures: distribution
13
Households Energy Expenditures: stylised fact 1
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
0 20 40 60 80 100age class of the RP
heating private transport electricity
Ratio of energy expenditures to total expenditures (2008)
14
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
1 2 3 4+household size
heating private transport electricity
Households Energy Expenditures: stylised facts 2
Ratio of energy expenditures to total expenditures (2008)
15
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10tenth of equivalent expenditure
heating private transport electricity
Households Energy Expenditures: stylised facts 3
Ratio of energy expenditures to total expenditures (2008)
16
4,4% 3,6% 2,9%
5,2%5,6%
6,1%
1,9% 2,2% 3,2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
North Center South
geographical area
heating private transport electricity
Households Energy Expenditures: stylised facts 4
Ratio of energy expenditures to total expenditures (2008)
17
A model for households Energy Expenditures
1.Prices (P): in the short term, energy demand is rather inelastic, because of the lowdegree of substitution, while in the medium term, the rise of energy prices inducehouseholds to invest in energy-efficient appliances (or switch to less expensive fuels).The efficiency gain might be crowded-out by an increase in energy demand aphenomenon known in the literature as rebound effect.
2.Demographics (Zi): energy demand increases with the number of householdmembers and with the presence of pre-school children and elderly people that spendmore time at home. Households where members commute using privatetransportation demand more energy and those living in small towns have less optionsto use public transportation.
3.Climatic conditions (T): the use of energy is also affected by the change in surfacetemperature. The increase in the temperatures reduces heating demand but increasethe request for cooling and this can primarily affect households residing in SouthernItaly. For example in 2006 the peak demand for electricity was registered - for thefirst time in Italy - during summer.
(i= i-th Household. j=1,2,3: heating, transport and electricity)
18
A model for households Energy Expenditures
(i= i-th Household. j=1,2,3: heating, transport and electricity)
SURE estimate of a quasi-quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QAIDS):
19
A model for households Energy Expenditures(95 per cent confidence intervals)
Heating
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
Age
Age squared
Employed
Self employed
College degree
More than 2 HH members
Dependants (age<6or age>74)
More than 4 rooms
Houseow ner
Expenditure < 20th perc
Expenditure > 20th perc
North
South
Surface temperature
Surface temperature (South)
log(expenditure)
log(expenditure) squared
Number of durables
log of price for heating (gas)
log (price for electricity)
log (price for liq fuels)
20
Electricity
-8,0% -6,0% -4,0% -2,0% 0,0% 2,0%
Age
Age squared
Employed
Self employed
College degree
More than 2 HH members
Dependants (age<6or age>74)
More than 4 rooms
Houseowner
Expenditure < 20th perc
Expenditure > 20th perc
North
South
Surface temperature
Surface temperature (South)
log(expenditure)
log(expenditure) squared
Number of durables
log of price for heating (gas)
log (price for electricity)
log (price for liq fuels)
A model for households Energy Expenditures(95 per cent confidence intervals)
21
Private transport
-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Age
Age squared
Employed
Self employed
College degree
More than 2 HH members
Dependants (age<6or age>74)
More than 4 rooms
Houseowner
Expenditure < 20th perc
Expenditure > 20th perc
North
South
Surface temperature
Surface temperature (South)
log(expenditure)
log(expenditure) squared
Number of durables
log of price for heating (gas)
log (price for electricity)
log (price for liq fuels)
A model for households Energy Expenditures(95 per cent confidence intervals)
22
Households Energy Expenditures: 2020 and 2030 simulation
Simulation of energy-related shares on households expenditures using thestructural relations estimated.
• Energy prices changes (electricity, gas and liquid fuels) incorporate IEAscenarios for 2020 and 2030.
• Surface temperatures modifications incorporates OECD (2008) projectionsfor 2020 and 2030.
• Demographic structure is modified (raking ratio technique): Age x Sex, according to Istat (2009). Household size using Istat and survey data to estimate the trend in the
reduction of household size (and the increase in households number)
23
Households Energy Expenditures: simulation results
• Energy-related shares decrease by 1.8 percentage points (pp) in 2020 and of2.2 pp in 2030. The reduction is largely driven by the effect of climate changeand prices (there is a major reduction in the share of heating).
• The increase in surface temperatures reduces the demand for heating andapparently counterbalances the higher demand for electricity induced by therequest of cooling.
• Unless a major structural shift in households behaviour takes place, the aging ofthe Italian population is going to exercise a downward pressure on energy use(demand for electricity and heating will be more than compensated by thedecrease in the demand for private transportation).
• The distribution of the shares in 2020 and 2030 becomes more unequal (this isdetermined by both demographics, prices dynamics and higher temperatures).
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
2007
2020
2030
24
Households Energy Expenditures: main conclusions
1. Italian households use a third of total final energy demand (47 Mtoe, about 2 toeper HH and 0.8 toe per individual): 80 per cent is used for heating/cooking andtransportation.
2. In the past decades the increase in households number almost offset the gains inenergy efficiency.
3. Households Energy bill amounts to about 12 per cent of total expenditures and ismore unequally distributed than other items.
4. Households Energy expenditures show different patterns according to households’characteristics.
5. Changes in demographic structure, in energy prices and surface temperatures willreduce the mean energy demand in the next decades - with the increasing numberof HH contrasting the aging effect. Energy efficiency improvements will probablysustain this reduction.
25
Possible improvements of the analysis
1. Temperatures should be modeled at a more disaggregated level (atleast at nuts1 level);
2. some indicator of energy efficiency should be included;
3. the modelling strategy should be modified in order to improve itsrobustness in dealing with the high number of households with zeroexpenditures for private transportation;
4. stochastic simulation.
26
The Demand for Energyof Italian Households
Ivan Faiella
Thanks!