Energy Market: Global Growth Trends - gaccwest.com · World Energy Consumption Trend by Fuel Type Total global energy ... agricultural byproducts, and other biomass. 2 Fuel ethanol

Current Trends for Energy Storage in Germany’s Energy Policy

M+W Group Dr. Rudolf Simon January 2013

© M+W Group 2 Current Trends for Energy Storage in Germany’s Energy Policy - SIM

Agenda

Energy Market Outlook Renewable Energy Outlook and Systems „Energiewende“ in Germany Energy Storage – Key Element


Outlook 2013 Market Outlook

World Energy Consumption Trend by Fuel Type

Total global energy demand increases by 1.6 % per year. The use of all energy sources rises over the time horizon till 2035.

Renewables are the fastest- growing source of world energy, with consumption increasing by 2.8 % per year.

Source: EIA (US Energy Information Admisinstration) 2011

Units in Quadrillion BTUs


Investment in Renewable Energy Capacity 2005-2030 by Region, $ Billion

Global investment in renewable energy projects (excluding hydro) will rise from $ 200 billion in 2010 till $ 400 billion in 2020 and to $ 460 billion by 2030. Next 10 years will see a steep climb in investment as countries rush to meet their

2020 renewable targets 2018-2020 is expected to be

most costly efficient offshore wind projects especially in Germany and UK.

The US and Canada are expected to encrease their renewable investments significantly

By 2014 China will become the largest single market for renewable energy, accounting 21% of the world market.

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2012

$ bi

llion


Renewable Energy as a Share of Total Energy Consumption in Four Countries in 2011

17% 5%

3%

3%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Germany US France Canada

%

Nuclrear

Hydro

Renewables

Gas/Coal/Oil

Source: BP Energy survey, 2012


Renewable Energy as Share of Total Primary Energy Consumption, 2011

Source: EIA, 2012

In Average, Renewable Energy makes 9% of total ptimary energy consumption. Worldwide consumption of Renewable Energy includes following sources:

■ Hydroelectric power (36%) ■ Wood (22%) and Biofuels (21%) ■ Wind (13%) ■ Waste (5%) ■ Other sources <4% (Solar and Geothermal)

1 Municipal solid waste from biogenic sources, landfill gas, sludge waste, agricultural byproducts, and other biomass. 2 Fuel ethanol (minus denaturant) and biodiesel consumption, plus losses and co-products from the production of fuel ethanol and biodiesel. 3 Conventional hydroelectric power


Global Cumulated Installed PV Capacity Market Share in 2011

Germany and Italy represent more than 50% of the world’s installed capacity. Four non-European countries, namely Japan, USA, China and Australia are in

the top 10 list by cumulated installed PV capacity.

Source: EPIA, May 2012


The „Horror“ Balance for Climate in 2030 Gigatons of CO2 compared to 2010

CO2 savings (-%) and CO2 production (+%) in 2010-2030 CO2 savings made by other countries are leveled to zero by emissions from China and India

Source: Kristina Düllmann, www.wiwo.de 2011

Global CO2 Emmissions, in gigatonns


Renewable Power Capacities 2011 in GW

Energy transition (“Energiewende”) is the transition of Germany and several other countries to sustainable economies by means of renewable energy, energy efficiency and sustainable development.

The final goal is the abolishment of nuclear, coal, and other non-renewable energy sources

Source: REN21 2012


Top 7 Countries, Renewable Power Capacities in 2011

Source: REN21 2012


Driving Plan to „Energiewende“

New Energy Infrastructure

Power System Modification

Renewable Energy Electrification Efficiency &

Energy Saving E-Mobility

Intelligence

Behavior Acceptance

Source: IFEU, Frauenhofer IBP, HS Regensburg June 2012



The Energy efficiency and Energy Saving is a central requirement for Energiewende, because reduction of energy consumption is the most cost efficient solution with huge potential.





Intelligence

Behavior Acceptance

Efficiency & Energy Saving




Renewable Energy is the second pillar of Energiewende and essential for the future energy supply, because it is almost CO2-free and unlimited.





Intelligence

Behavior Acceptance

Renewable Energy




Encreasing Electrification of mobility and heat market may reduce dependance on oil and natural gas.





Intelligence

Behavior Acceptance

Electrification




Electric vehicles and rail transport replace increasingly combustion engines and fossil fuels.





Intelligence

Behavior Acceptance

E-Mobility




Encreasing Electrification leads to fundamental Modification of Power Systems, that have to be technically and economically adapted to - partial intermittent – renewable power generation





Intelligence

Behavior Acceptance





New Energy Infrastructure for power and gas is a significant requirement for Energiewende





Intelligence

Behavior Acceptance





Intelligent (smart) grids and applications optimisate the operation and make the whole system more flexible. Energiewende can to be sustained by the community only through acceptance and changed behavior.





Intelligence

Behavior Acceptance

Intelligence

Behavior Acceptance



The Cost of the „Energiewende“ in Germany till 2031

Total estimated investment in new power plants, storage technologies and grids to meet „Energiewende“ plan 330 billion €

Source: Kristina Düllmann, www.wiwo.de 2011

Hydro Energy Storage

Biomass, Biogas, Geothermal

Wind offshore

Power grid

Coal and Gas Power station

Wind onshore

Photovoltaic

In billion €


Germany Power Production Mix in 2012

Source: BDEW, AG Energiebilanzen December 2012

Hard Coal 19%

Brown Coal 26%

Gas 11%

Nuclear 16%

Other 6%

Wind 7%

Biomass 6%

Water 3%

PV 5%

Waste 1%

Renewable 22%


Contributing to „Energiewende“ M+W Group activities





Intelligence

Behavior Acceptance


Energy Efficiency & Energy Saving for the industry

Renewable Energy power

plants

E-Mobility + Li-ion Battery

production


0,1 MW

Large-Scale Power Plants

Decentralized Energy Systems Cogeneration & Renewable Energies

Domestic Energy Systems

100 MWel 10 MWel 1 MWel 0,1 MWel 1.000 MWel

Gasification Plants

Biomass Power Plants

Combined Heat+Power

Photovoltaic Power Plants

Trigeneration

Gas fired Power Stations

Concentrated Solar Power Plants

District Heating and Cooling

Biomass Fermentation

Scope

Energy Solutions M+W Group as EPC/EPCM


Storage Applications

Electric Grid Services

Grid Stabilization Uninterrupted Energy Supply Off-Grid Solutions

• Grid Stability (Peak shaving, „Power Shifting“)

• Buffering of volatile renewable Energy

• Increase Plant Efficiency, Reduce power loss

• Decentralized Energy Management

• Energy Independence

• Continous supply

Source http://www.heizungsfinder.de/images/photovoltaik-technik/inselanlage.jpg

• Island solutions

• Remote consumers


Pumped hydro storage is the dominating energy storage technology Among other technologies Batteries will

become a wide-spread way for short-term energy storage.

Falling prices for li-ion batteries make this technology more competitive.

Battery Technologies Installed for Grid Energy Storage = 450 MW in 2010

Source Electric Power Research Institute 2011


Properties of different storage systems

Source: Schoenung et al., 2003; Chen et al., 2009; Beaudin et al., 2010; EERA, 2011; BNEF, 2011; Nabhamkin, 2008; JRC (2012) – 2011 Technology Map of SET Plan


Lead Acid Cheap & Mature Low Maintenance

No Deep-Discharge / Over-Charge Poor cyclability

Lifetime Environmental issues

Lithium Ion Low Maintenance High Energy Density

Highly Hazardous

Full Cycles can Reduce Lifetime

NaS/NaNiCl Largest installed base

Suited for large centralized installation

High temperature technology (> 240°C)

Product recall in 2011 due to safety reasons

VRFB Cyclability

Deep Discharge / Overcharge Safe Low Self-Discharge

Low Energy Density

Battery Storage Solutions: Pros & Cons


stack

Electrolyte

€ 2.300 € 2.640 € 3.088

€ 2.320 € 4.640 € 580

1/21

27

Up-Scaling VRFB vs. Li-Ion: Cost development


Example of Battery Storage

400MW-battery storage facility in Johnson City, N.Y. for peak usage

Source Long Island Business news, Sept 2011

Advantage Improve the power plant capacity by releasing existing reserve capacity greater flexibility in response to market signals


Battery Storage Container System


Battery Storage Container System

Wind / CHP


Li-Ion Battery Storage

Vanadium Redox Flow Battery


Case Study for Energy Cost: PV park with and without Storage


CapEx Development: Photovoltaic and Li-Ion Batteries

Source: Bernstein estimates and analysis, October 2012

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

$/kW

h

Years

Cell

Pack

Cell Advanced

Pack Advanced


Global Market Forecast for emerging Grid Storage = Batteries

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Billi

on U

SD

GW

h

GWh Billion USD

Sour

ce :

Lux

Rese

arch

Inc.

52 G

W


BACK-UP


PV-Solar Resource of the USA

PV Power Plant San Luis Obispo County, California, USA


Levelized Cost of Solar Power, €/kWh in 2011

Source: http://www.solarfeeds.com/in-focus-solar-grid-parity/cost-of-solar-us-2011/

Only Hawaii has reached solar grid parity without incentives. In 2016 New York and Califormia also will.

http://www.solarfeeds.com/in-focus-solar-grid-parity/cost-of-solar-us-2011/



















US Average Retail Electricity Price by State in 2011

Source: http://www.solarfeeds.com/in-focus-solar-grid-parity/cost-of-solar-us-2011/

The average retail electricity price ranges from 8-10 cents in the interior to 15 cents per kWh and higher on the coasts of the US.




















Investment in Renewable Energy Capacity 2005-2030 by Technology, $ Billion and GW

Technology Outlook Solar will triple it‘s installations till 2020

and remain constant till 2030 Wind will match solar till 2020 to $140

billion and $ 82 billion in 2030. Investment in biofuels biomass and

waste-to-energy is projected to increase from $14 billion in 2020 to $80 billion in 2020.

Installed capacity of renewable power sources is projected to climb, adding 2.5TW by 2030 – growth of over 800%. 1.1TW of new build s expected over this decade, with 36% from solar and 46% onshore wind, followed by 1.4TW between 2021 and 2030, of which half will be new solar installations and 37% onshore wind.


$ bi

llion

GW


Clean Energy Investment in the Power Sector by Region, $ Billion

The focus of the renewable power market is rapidly moving away from the traditional mature markets of Europe and the US.

Smaller markets are expanding far more aggressively as their power demand ramps up more quickly and – more importantly – there remains considerable unexploited potential for renewable power in these regions.

In absolute terms Europe will be the biggest market for renewable power over the next 5 years, attracting 26% of the finance

China will take pole position, with some 20% of new investment. MENA market will also grow very quickly – over 400% over the next 20 years –

with most of the investment from solar technologies replacing oil-fired power plants.



Renewable Energy‘s Bumpy Path to the Green Economy

Source: EPIA, September 2012


Photovoltaic Energy Supply combined with Energy Storage System


Energy Storage and Energy Efficiency

Energy Storage application - Central (Grid) - Decentral (domestic and mobile)

Energy Storage assists to: - Seasonal arbitrage - Smoothing renewable energy systems - Grid stabilisation etc.

Energy Efficiency Consulting

Documents

Energy Market: Global Growth Trends - gaccwest.com · World Energy Consumption Trend by Fuel Type Total global energy ... agricultural byproducts, and other biomass. 2 Fuel ethanol