Elections and Voting BehaviorElections and Voting Behavior

Chapter 10

How American Elections WorkHow American Elections Work

Three types of elections:– Select party nominees (primary elections; take

place in spring)– Select officeholders (general elections; takes

place in Nov.)– Select options on specific policies (special

elections)

Special Elections & Ballot Special Elections & Ballot MeasuresMeasures

Referendum:– State voters approve or disapprove proposed

legislation.– Often used for constitutional amendments.

Initiative petition:– Voters in some states propose legislation to be voted

on.– Requires a specific number of signatures to be valid.– Can still be voted down by the people.

The Expansion of SuffrageThe Expansion of Suffrage

Suffrage or franchise is the right to voteIt has been expanded throughout US historyToday nearly all Americans over the age of

18 can vote in elections

The Expansion of SuffrageThe Expansion of Suffrage

15th Amendment (1870) granted suffrage to African Americans (and other non-whites)

19th Amendment (1920) granted suffrage to women

26th Amendment (1971) set the minimum voting age at 18 (from 21)

Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First ChoiceFirst Choice

Deciding Whether to Vote– U.S. typically has low voter turnouts—

historically around 50% in most presidential elections.

– Some argue it is a rational choice to not vote.

Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First ChoiceChoice

The Decline of Turnout: 1892-2004 (Figure 10.2)

Whether to Vote: RegistrationWhether to Vote: Registration

49 states require registration—officially signing up to vote.

Registration procedures differ from state to state.Registration requirements reduce turnout– It requires voters to register well in advance of the

election day.– Motor Voter Act: Requires states to permit people

to register to vote when they apply for their driver’s license.

Other reasons cited for not Other reasons cited for not voting…voting…

Some believe there is little ideological difference between the two parties’ candidates

They believe one vote among millions cast doesn’t matter

They are unable to leave work on a Tuesday to vote

Some reasons people are Some reasons people are more likely more likely to vote…to vote…

They perceive an ideological difference between candidates

They have a sense of political efficacy—they believe their vote makes a difference

The want to perform their civic duty in a democracy

Predict who is likely to votePredict who is likely to vote

GenderRace (Caucasian, Latino, African American)AgeEducationReligion (pick three)IncomeUrban or rural

Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First ChoiceFirst Choice

Who Votes?– Education: More education = more likely to

vote. Most important factor.– Age: Older = more likely to vote.– Race: Caucasian = more likely to vote. BUT,

other ethnicities are higher with comparable education.

– Gender: Female = more likely to vote.

Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First ChoiceFirst Choice

Who Votes? (continued)– Marital Status: Married = more likely to vote.– Union Membership: Union member = more

likely to vote.– Traits are cumulative - possessing several adds

up.

Voter ReformsVoter Reforms

Studies show that if turnout increases among groups with low rates, Democrats would probably receive more votes

Republicans are unlikely to support reforms that would cost them this advantage

Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First ChoiceChoice

Who Votes How?Who Votes How?

Republicans– Upper income, evangelical Christians,

conservative religious, Cuban Americans

Democrats– African Americans, Jews, women, Latinos

How Americans Vote:How Americans Vote:Explaining Citizens’ DecisionsExplaining Citizens’ DecisionsMandate Theory of Elections

– The idea that the winning candidate has a mandate from the people to carry out his or her platforms and politics.

– Politicians like the theory better than political scientists do.

How Americans Vote: How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizen's DecisionsExplaining Citizen's Decisions

1. Party Identification– People generally vote for the party they agree

with.– They don’t have to become informed about

every issue– This trend is declining as parties have lost some

significance in the political process (with rise of Independents)

How Americans Vote: Explaining How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizen’s DecisionsCitizen’s Decisions

How Americans Vote: How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizen's DecisionsExplaining Citizen's Decisions

2. Candidate’s Personalities– A candidate’s appearance may play an

unconscious role in decision-making– People tend to value integrity, reliability, and

competence.– Voters with college education are more likely

to base their decision on personality

How Americans Vote: How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizen's DecisionsExplaining Citizen's Decisions

3. Policy Preferences– People vote for candidates who share their policy

preferences.– Must know where they and the candidates stand on

issues and see differences between candidates.– Candidates can be ambiguous on the issues.– Today candidates are forced to take a clear stand in the

party primaries.– Retrospective Voting: choosing a candidate who vows

to continue policies helpful to him/her

The Last Battle: The Electoral The Last Battle: The Electoral CollegeCollege

Electoral College actually elects the President - founders wanted president chosen by the elite of the country

States choose the electorsWinner-Take-All system gives bigger

emphasis to more populated states and swing states during campaign

The Last Battle: The Electoral The Last Battle: The Electoral CollegeCollege

How it works today:– Each state has as many votes as it does Representatives

and Senators.– Winner of popular vote typically gets ALL the

Electoral College votes.– Electors meet in December, votes are reported by the

vice president in January.– If no candidate gets 270 votes (a majority), the House

of Representatives votes for president, with each state getting ONE vote.

Electoral College: Electoral College: Winner Take AllWinner Take All

48 states are winner-take-allIf Candidate A gets 51% and Candidate B

gets 49% of vote, Candidate A gets all electoral votes

In Oregon, A=7 B=0

Electoral College: Electoral College: Maine and NebraskaMaine and Nebraska

Separate vote by House districtPopular vote winner in each district gets the

electoral voteWinner of state popular vote gets final 2

electoral votes(show map www.270towin.c0m)

2000 Election2000 Election

Illustrates a key weakness to the Electoral College—winner of popular vote can lose in the E.C.

Bush won more small states which are overrepresented in E.C.

Gore won more populous states—they are underrepresented in E.C.

Overall popular vote was close

The Last Battle: The Electoral The Last Battle: The Electoral CollegeCollege

Should the Electoral College Should the Electoral College be Reformed?be Reformed?

Think-Pair-Share ActivityMake a list of the greatest benefits and

greatest weaknesses of the Electoral College system (3 of each…at least)

Should the system be reformed? How? Defend your answer.

Evaluating the E.C.Evaluating the E.C.

Weaknesses– Doesn’t always represent the popular vote totals– Small states overrepresented / large states underrepresented– Faithless electors– Deflates voter turnout– Campaigns ignore some states

Strengths– Winner-Take-All system provides a clear victor– Clear, Quick results– Traditional system / known quantity– Reduced risk of fraud

Understanding Elections and Understanding Elections and Voting BehaviorVoting Behavior

Democracy and Elections– Voters can steer government only when there

are noticeable policy differences between the candidates.

– Candidates who vow to continue popular policies are more likely to win elections.

– Policies affect voting behavior through retrospective voting.

– Bad economies make politicians nervous.