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Fear of Floating in Reverse: Exchange Rate Policy in the 2000s. Eduardo Levy Yeyati The World Bank & Universidad Torcuato Di Tella Federico Sturzenegger Kennedy School, Harvard Univ. & Universidad Torcuato Di Tella May, 2007. Storyboard. LYS updated: Regimes in the 2000s - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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1
Eduardo Levy YeyatiEduardo Levy Yeyati
The World Bank & Universidad Torcuato Di TellaThe World Bank & Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
Federico SturzeneggerFederico Sturzenegger
Kennedy School, Harvard Univ. & Kennedy School, Harvard Univ. & Universidad Torcuato Di TellaUniversidad Torcuato Di Tella
May, 2007
Fear of Floating in Reverse:Fear of Floating in Reverse:
Exchange Rate Policy in the 2000sExchange Rate Policy in the 2000s
StoryboardStoryboard
LYS updated: Regimes in the 2000s Fear of floating or fear of appreciation? Fear of floating in reverse: reviving exchange
rate policy Economic impact
Final remarks: Brainstorming
• Key criterion: ER variability relative to forex intervention
• The intervention dimension is key to characterized exchange rate policy (as opposed to the evolution of exchange rates) and its consequences
Exchange rate regimes in the 2000s: Exchange rate regimes in the 2000s: Classification
Regime in the 2000s: Nothing changed?Regime in the 2000s: Nothing changed?
Source: LYS (2006)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002
Fix
Int
Float
• Fear of floating’s underlying fears:– Contractionary devaluations (due to BS effects)
and currency and debt crisis propensity– Dollar pricing, pass-through & inflation
• Fear of flying: Leaning against the appreciation wind– Intervention to strenthen the demand for the
foreign currency, to avoid/mitigate appreciation pressures
• Not to be mistaken with fear of sudden stops in the aftermath of a crisis
Fear of flying: A characterizationFear of flying: A characterization
Fear of floating? (non-floats)Fear of floating? (non-floats)
Source: LYS (2006)
The comeback of exchange rate policy?The comeback of exchange rate policy?
Mercantilist interventions as a substitute for protection Less specific than subsidies Less prone to mismanagement & corruption
Fear of floating in reverse (FoFiR) Invertion of the ER anchor problem: sustaining
an undervalued currency Instead of amplified recessions due to price rigidities… …inflationary expansions fueled by positive real
shocks.
Does it work? How?
(t) (t, t+1) (t, t+2) (3-y avg, t+1)int1 (t) 0.036* 0.109**
(0.022) (0.055)int1 (t, t+1) 0.072**
(0.029)int1 (t, t+2) 0.090**
(0.040)R-squared 0.989 0.99 0.991 0.99
Dlog (Real bilateral exchange rate)
FoFiR: leaning against the appreciation FoFiR: leaning against the appreciation windwind
Additional controls: country and time FE, terms of trade, GDP of trade partners, net inflows.
∆%Inflation ∆%Deflator ∆%Deflator - ∆%Inflation( t ) ( t ) ( t )
int1 (t) 0.192 1.542** 0.803**(0.602) (0.720) (0.364)
int1 (t-1) -0.65 -2.170*** -0.026(0.502) -0.654 (0.367)
R-squared 0.65 0.64 0.119
……at the cost of inflation pressuresat the cost of inflation pressures
Additional controls: country and time FE, dlog(M2), dlog(GDP), dl(RER), lagged dep. var.
(3y avg; t+1) (3y avg; t+1)int1 (t-1, t-3) 2.789*** 1.728***
(0.459) -0.578int1 (t) 1.352** 0.791
(0.661) -0.808R-squared 0.446 0.464 0.306 0.363
dlog(GDP) dlog(GDP per worker)
Intervention & growthIntervention & growth
Additional controls: country and time FE, terms of trade, GDP of trade partners, net inflows, dlog(pop), lagged HP cycle, lagged GDP, lagged dep. var.
BK trend HP trend BK cycle HP cycle int1 (t-1, t-3) 1.781*** 0.009***
(0.305) (0.002)int1 (t) 0.599*** 0.011***
(0.222) (0.003)R-squared 0.469 0.627 0.415 0.312
Intervention & long-term growth?Intervention & long-term growth?
Additional controls: country and time FE, terms of trade, GDP of trade partners, net inflows, dlog(pop), lagged HP cycle, lagged GDP, lagged dep. var.
Savings (% GDP)(t+1) (t+1) (3Y avg; t+1)
int1(t) 1.044** 1.784*** 4.142***(0.474) -0.304 -1.224
int1 (t-1, t-3) 1.154 0.692*(0.738) -0.375
R-squared 0.805 0.829 0.656
Real Inv. (% GDP)
Savings & investmentSavings & investment
Additional controls: country and time FE, terms of trade, GDP of trade partners, net inflows, dlog(pop), lagged dlog(GDP), savings
Unemp (%)int1 (t) -3.041* -0.439**
(1.787) (0.20)int1 (t-1) -5.872** 0.244
(2.885) (0.19)∆%GDP (t) -0.036*
(0.02)R-squared 0.787 0.783 0.925
Labor/ Capital Compensation
High dollar, low wages?High dollar, low wages?
Additional controls: country and time FE, terms of trade, GDP of trade partners, net inflows, lagged dlog(product), dlog(pop)
100
150
200
250
2001
.IV
2002
.IV
2003
.IV
2004
.IV
2005
.IV
2006
.IV
100
250
400
550
exports consumption
ExampleExample
100
150
200
250
2001
.IV
2002
.IV
2003
.IV
2004
.IV
2005
.IV
2006
.IV
100
250
400
550
IPC exports consumption
ExampleExample
100
150
200
250
2001
.IV
2002
.IV
2003
.IV
2004
.IV
2005
.IV
2006
.IV
100
250
400
550
IPC exports GDP consumption
ExampleExample
100
150
200
250
2001
.IV
2002
.IV
2003
.IV
2004
.IV
2005
.IV
2006
.IV
0
50
100
150
IPC Precio implicito del PBI real w age
ExampleExample
100
150
200
250
2001
.IV
2002
.IV
2003
.IV
2004
.IV
2005
.IV
2006
.IV
0
50
100
150
IPC Precio implicito del PBI real w age real w age (formal)
ExampleExample
GDP by production factor
Capital benefits
Labor compensation
Other
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005*
ExampleExample
Taking stockTaking stock
Distribution of regimes little changed in the 00sBut the composition of non-floats have changed
Reversed fear of floating is an increasingly popular contenderPositive on
Long-run & productivity growth Saving & investment Not so much on exports
Is it merely low real wages?
Thank youThank you
22
Eduardo Levy YeyatiEduardo Levy Yeyati
The World Bank & Universidad Torcuato Di TellaThe World Bank & Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
Federico SturzeneggerFederico Sturzenegger
Kennedy School, Harvard Univ. & Kennedy School, Harvard Univ. & Universidad Torcuato Di TellaUniversidad Torcuato Di Tella
May, 2007
Fear of Floating in Reverse:Fear of Floating in Reverse:
Exchange Rate Policy in the 2000sExchange Rate Policy in the 2000s
Exchange rate volatility (e): average of the
absolute value of monthly changes in the exchange rate
Volatility of exchange rate changes (De ):
standard deviation of monthly changes in the exchange rate
Volatility of reserves (R): average of the absolute
value of monthly changes in international reserves relative to the monetary base of the previous month (both denominated in US dollars)
De facto regimes over the years: De facto regimes over the years: ClassificationClassification
De facto regimes over the years: Classification
Regime e De R
Float Low Low High
Intermediate Med Med Med
Fix High Low Low