Economy In Brieff August 2016 - Nevadaepubs.nsla.nv.gov/statepubs/epubs/497823-2016-08.pdfNevada Workforce Informer, ThNevada Workforce Informer, Th e Department of Employment, Training

Nevada Workforce Informer, Th e Department of Employment, Training & RehabilitationNevada Workforce Informer, Th e Department of Employment, Training & Rehabilitation

Economy In Brieff

A Monthly Review of Workforce & Economic Information by the Research & Analysis Bureau-

Economic Summary

*Seasonally Adjusted

Nevada* 6.3%Las Vegas MSA 6.0%Reno-Sparks MSA 4.9%Carson City MSA 6.0%United States* 4.9%

Nevada* 2.9%Las Vegas MSA* 2.9%Reno-Sparks MSA* 5.4%Carson City MSA* 1.1%United States*

Nevada 10.0%Clark County 10.2%Washoe County 9.3%

Nevada 9.6%Clark County 10.1%Washoe County 12.3%

1.7%

UNEMPLOYMENT RATES August 2016

JOB GROWTH (YOY) August 2016

Economic Indicators

TAXABLE SALES (YOY) June 2016

GAMING WIN (YOY) July 2016

Washoe

Humboldt

Pershing

Elko

White Pine

Churchill

LanderEureka

Nye

Lincoln

Clark

Lyon

Mineral

Esmeralda

Carson

Douglas

Storey

Less Than 5.0%

Between 5.0% and 6.4%

Between 6.5% and 7.9%

Unemployment Rate by County

Between 8.0 and 9.4%

Greater Than or Equal to 9.5%

Over the last several months, we have highlighted the volatility which can occur in the monthly estimates of labor market activity. In addi-tion to the regular benchmark re-visions which occur at year-end, designed to update the estimates based upon a more complete set of information, the preliminary head-line job and unemployment rate barometers are subject to one-time monthly revisions coinciding with the release of the following month’s information.

For instance, we initially reported a 4,700 job gain in July. Revised es-timates show a gain of 11,100 is es-timated to have actually occurred. In other words, initial estimates were revised up by 6,400. This is a relatively large revision. Prior to this, during the fi rst six months of the year, revisions ranged from a decrease of 3,400 to an increase of 2,800. The largest revisions this year occurred within the last three months – July’s upward revision being the most signifi cant.

Nevada gained employment for 68-consecutive months as of Au-gust. Year-over-year, the Silver State added a seasonally adjusted 37,200 jobs over August last year, for a growth rate of 2.9 percent. Further, annualized employment growth in the State exceeded na-tional job gains for the 49th con-secutive month. Over the month, 4,800 jobs were added, seasonally adjusted. Although payrolls were expected to increase by 1,600 (not seasonally adjusted), a gain of

6,400 actually occurred, leading to the seasonally adjusted increase. Specifi cally, the private sector in-creased by 4,600 jobs and the pub-lic sector added 200 to payrolls. As noted above, although monthly employment estimates are always adjusted to some extent, it is pos-sible for August to realize a large revision with next month’s release, considering the pattern in the last several months.

The trade, transportation, and utili-ties sector realized the largest in-crease in terms of nominal growth during the fi rst eight months of 2015, adding 9,100 jobs year-to-date, an increase of 3.8 percent relative to last year. In terms of percentage growth, construction continues to lead the industrial su-persectors in terms of year-over-year job gains, up 9.4 percent over the same period, which equates to a gain of 6,400 jobs. Mining has consistently lost employment over the course of the year – mining and logging continues to be the only supersector to contract, down 900 jobs, a loss of 5.9 percent, year-to-date. Losses in the mining sec-tor can be largely attributed to the weakened gold prices over the last fi ve years.

The Census Bureau’s Local Em-ployment Dynamics (LED) Pro-gram, among other things, allows for detailed demographic analyses of Nevada’s workforce. In August, we examine the workforce, by in-dustry, of workers at least 45 years of age. As of mid-2015, the most-

August 2016

Nevada Economy in Brief

Nevada Workforce Informer, Th e Department of Employment, Training & Rehabilitation

Economic Summary

Small Biz Jobs at All-Time High for IQ; Gains Recorded in Each of Past 21 Quarters

employment in establishments with less than 100 workers

44% of Workforce at Least 45 Years Old; 50%+ in Educ., Govt., & Trans./Warehousing

2015:IIIQ Nevada workforce by age

Silver State Job Growth Stronger than in 40 Other States in IQjob growth rankings (# of states with slower private sector job growth than NV)

recent information available, nearly 540,000 (44 percent) of the Silver State’s 1.2 million workers were at least 45 years old. “Older” workers account for more than half of the workforce in three industries--education, gov-ernment and transportation/warehousing. All told, those older than 45 represent 52 percent of the workforce in these establishments. This is up from 48 percent a decade ago. In Nevada’s largest industries – accommoda-tion/food services, retail trade, and health care/social assistance – 41 percent of the workforce is at least 45 years of age, slightly below the Statewide average. Nationally, 38 percent of the workers in these industries are 45+ years of age. At 36 percent, the share of workers at least 45 years of age in the re-tail trade industry is the smallest in the State. Other industries with relatively small shares are information and fi nance/insurance. As an aside, the manufacturing sector in Nevada is in store for unprecedented growth in the near future. The share of workers at least 45 years old in that sector is 49 percent, sug-gesting that workforce development efforts will likely play a crucial role in developing the talent pipeline to fi ll these positions.

With data from the Quarterly Census of Em-ployment and Wages Program, we are able to assess Nevada’s performance relative to other states (as well as the District of Co-lumbia), during the pre-recessionary boom, through the downturn, and into the recovery. In the years preceding the economic down-turn, Nevada led the country in private sector employment growth, with a growth rate of 6.4 percent in 2005. Conversely, during the re-cession, Nevada was the most affected state in terms of private sector employment growth. In fact, Nevada’s employment growth was the lowest in the nation in 2009 (-10.1 per-cent) and 2010 (-2.8 percent). Nevada has gradually regained lost ground over the past fi ve years. In 2011, the private sector grew at a rate of 1.2 percent, 37th in the nation; in 2012 we grew at a rate of 1.9 percent, 27th in the nation; and in 2013, private sector growth continued this trend, growing at 2.7 percent, which placed the Silver State at 13th in the na-tion. In 2014 Nevada had the second-fastest growing private sector in the nation, with a four percent growth rate; in 2015 we grew at a rate of 3.8 percent, third

August 2016

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Retail TradeInformation

Finance/InsuranceAccommodation/Food ServicesArts/Entertainment/Recreation

Other ServicesHealth Care/Social AssistanceAdministrative/Support/Waste…

StatewideMining/Quarrying/Oil/Gas Extraction

ConstructionManagement of Companies/Enterprises

Professional/Scientific/Technical ServicesReal Estate/Rental/Leasing

Wholesale TradeManufacturing

Agriculture/Forestry/Fishing/HuntingTransportation/Warehousing

Public AdministrationEducational Services

50

46

14

20 0

14

24

38

4948

40

0

10

20

30

40

50

'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 YTD

450,000

470,000

490,000

510,000

530,000

550,000

570,000

590,000

610,000

'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16



Economic Summary

New-Hire Earnings Approximately 2/3rds of Overall Average…a Consistent Relationship

new-hire monthly earnings vs. total average earnings

Earnings for Jobs Lost are Just Slightly Higher than Those for New Hiresaverage monthly earnings for jobs lost vs. new-hire earnings

2016 occupation wage ratios: 90th percentile wage/10th percentile

Wage Disparity Differs Considerably Across Occupation Groups

in the nation. With data through fi rst quarter of 2016, we see that Nevada had the 11th-fastest growing private sector in the nation, at 3.1 percent. The three leading states are Utah, Florida, and Idaho.

An important gauge of the Silver State’s economic health overall is small business employment. Prior to the recession, small business employment peaked at just over 585,000 in 2007:IVQ. Over the course of the downturn, jobs fell to 510,000. As of the fi rst quarter of 2016, employment in Nevada fi rms with less than 100 employees totaled 590,000. This is a decrease of nearly 6,300 from 2015:IVQ. This contraction can mostly be explained by the usual slowdown that oc-curs after the holidays. Despite the over-the-quarter decline, 2016:IQ is still a record high for any fi rst quarter – exceeding the previous record of 577,000 set last year. Further, year-over-year gains have been recorded in each of the past 21 quarters.

The Occupational Employment Statistics wage survey provides detailed wage infor-mation for over 700 occupations in Nevada. This month, we examine wage disparities as a ratio of the 90th percentile wage to the 10th percentile, also called the “90-10 ratio.” A signifi cant wage disparity is represented by a large 90-10 ratio. Protective service occupa-tions had the highest ratio, with a disparity of four. This group is composed of 19 detailed occupations with average wages ranging from over $49 per hour (supervisors of police and detectives) to about $10 per hour (cross-ing guards). The building/grounds cleaning and maintenance major group had the low-est ratio, at just 2.2. The ten occupations in this group range from average wages of $26 per hour (landscaping supervisors) to $11 per hour (building cleaning workers). Manage-ment occupations have the highest mean hourly wage, at $47 per hour, and have one of the largest wage disparities. On the other hand, food preparation/serving related occu-pations have the lowest mean wage, at $12 per hour, and have a relatively small disparity in wages. These patterns suggest that larger skill and training differentials between the highest-paid and lowest-paid occupations in a group lead to a larger wage disparity across the entire group.

August 2016

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.7

2.8

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.2

3.5

3.5

3.8

3.8

4.0

4.0

4.0

0 1 2 3 4 5

Building and Grounds Cleaning and MaintenanceHealthcare Support

Food Preparation and Serving RelatedCommunity and Social ServiceFarming, Fishing, and Forestry

Personal Care and ServiceOffice and Administrative Support

Business and Financial OperationsArchitecture and Engineering

Education, Training, and LibraryConstruction and Extraction

Installation, Maintenance, and RepairComputer and Mathematical

ProductionTransportation and Material Moving

Life, Physical, and Social ScienceSales and Related

Healthcare Practitioners and TechnicalManagement

Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and MediaLegal

Protective Service

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

$4,500

'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

Total Average Earnings New-Hire Earnings

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

New-Hire Earnings Earnings for Jobs Lost



Economic Summary

Vast Majority of Employment Growth Concentrated in Full-Time Posi-tions

FT vs. PT employment; (12-month moving average)

The Jobless Rate for Vets has been Lower than the Total Rate During the Recovery

unemployment rate for Nevada Vets vs. total (12-month moving average)

At Nearly 68K, # of Employers at Record High; Up vs. Yr.-Ago in 20 Straight Qtrs.

number of Nevada employers

New-hire wages can enhance our under-standing of important labor market trends. The latest available information from the LED Program (through mid-2015) shows that av-erage monthly earnings for all employees are just over $3,800. However, new-hire wages hover slightly above $2,600 (approximate-ly 70 percent of that for all workers). This certainly supports the theory that long-term employees are paid more as a group than those with less seniority on the job. Looking at trends over the past several years, new-hire wages consistently total about two-thirds of the overall average. This relationship has held steady over time. Since 2006, the new-hire/total wage ratio has fl uctuated in a very narrow range between 60 percent and 75 percent. Since the labor market recovery began in 2010, wages have been trending up – the overall average is up nine percent, compared to an increase of seven percent for new hires.

As of late, there has been much debate about the “quality” of new jobs being generated in Nevada, and, for that matter, throughout the nation. In order to answer these questions, we have analyzed a number of resources. As we will discuss further in this Overview, information from the Current Population Sur-vey (CPS) suggests that employment growth in Nevada is concentrated in full-time posi-tions (see below). Using information from DETR’s Silver State Solutions Initiative, we established the vast majority of online ads, roughly 90 percent, are for full-time jobs. Uti-lizing data from Unemployment Insurance records submitted by Nevada employers, we found wages, on average, are on the rise. Fi-nally, we examined industries adding or los-ing jobs, and found a minimal difference in wages across these two groups.

Looked at in a new way, according to LED, in 2015:IQ new-hire earnings for employees were just over $2,300 a month. Earnings for those jobs that are lost in the economy (job “separations,” whether voluntary or involun-tary) paid just a bit above $2,500 during the same quarter. This difference represents a continuation of a structural trend evident over time. LED information points to just a mar-ginal wage trade-off between those jobs be-

August 2016

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Full-Time Part-Time

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Total Rate Veterans' Rate

50,000

52,000

54,000

56,000

58,000

60,000

62,000

64,000

66,000

68,000

70,000

'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16



Economic Summary

ing added in Nevada, and those jobs that arelost. Some have argued that the quality of jobs being generated in Nevada of late leaves something to be desired. It seems that, all too often, these arguments suggest that good, high-paying jobs are being lost, while the new jobs are part-time, low-wage positions. Available evidence, including from the LED Program, does not support this characterization. At most, there appears to be a minimal trade-off. Although available information cannot confi rm this, the fi ndings reported above suggest that much of the la-bor market “churn,” both new jobs added and existing jobs lost, appears to take place at the lower end of the relative pay scale.

Furthering our discussion of job quality in-dicators in the Silver State, prior to the eco-nomic downturn, the number of Nevadans employed full-time topped out at nearly 1.1 million. At this peak level, full-time employ-ment represented about 83 percent of the total. Silver State residents employed part-time numbered approximately 225,000. Dur-ing the recession, full-time employment fell to almost 830,000, for a cyclical decline of more than 230,000. As would be expected in times of economic uncertainty, part-time employ-ment actually rose, resulting in a gain of near-ly 90,000 positions between mid-2006 and mid-2011, totaling over 300,000 jobs. Since the economic trough, full-time employment has risen steadily – in August 2016, employ-ees with full-time status totaled a little over 1,000,000, a gain of 170,000 from recession-ary lows. The number of Nevadans employed on a part-time basis, on the other hand, has held steady over the past four years, reach-ing 310,000 in August. While there is still room from improvement, Nevada employ-ment gains have been concentrated in full-time positions during the economy recovery. Currently, 76.4 percent of total employment is full-time, while part-time positions accounts for 23.6 percent.

With data generated via the Labor Insight tool offered by Burning Glass Technologies, a supplier of “real-time” labor market infor-mation, we can assess another aspect of the health of the State’s economy by looking at trends in online job ads via DETR’s Silver

August 2016

Trust Fund On Pace to Reach $1B in Mid-2018; Currently 60% of “Ad-equate” Balance

UI Trust Fund balance: actual vs. recommended (millions of $)

-$1,000

-$500

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18

Actual/Projected Balance Recommended/Adequate Balance

State Solutions Initiative. Year-to-Date end-August, there were 151,200 online job postings in Ne-vada. This is an 11.5 percent in-crease from the same time period last year. For those job ads speci-fying work hours, 89 percent were for full-time positions. The underly-ing trend of steady growth in online job postings is continuing.

As would be expected with the em-ployment increase in August, the unemployment rate decreased over the month, down 0.2 percentage point from July, to a seasonally ad-justed 6.3 percent. Additionally, for the 66th consecutive month, the un-employment rate in the Silver State decreased on a year-over-year ba-sis, down 0.3 percentage point over August last year. Comparing to the nation, the unemployment rate in the United States as a whole has held steady for three consecutive months, at a seasonally adjusted 4.9 percent.

Information from the monthly CPS, allows us to highlight the labor mar-ket status of the Silver State’s vet-eran population. At its peak in mid-

2011, the veteran’s unemployment rate stood at 14.7 percent –slightly higher than the peak rate for total unemployment, which was 14.4 percent at the end of 2010. How-ever, since 2012, unemployment rates for veterans have been nota-bly lower than the total rate. In Au-gust, veterans have an unemploy-ment rate of 5.1 percent (expressed as a 12-month moving average), down from 6.2 percent a year ago. In comparison, the total unemploy-ment rate is 6.3 percent this month, a 0.9 percentage point decrease from August last year.

Initial claims for unemployment in-surance continued to decline in Au-gust, falling nearly seven percent from August of 2015, to just under 11,000 claims. This is the 17th-consecutive month of year-over-year declines in initial claims. Other measures of activity also continue to improve, with the exhaustion rate falling to 38.4 percent and the av-erage duration of benefi ts falling to 14.2 weeks. The declines in these measures have helped reduce the average benefi ts paid per month over the last year to $25.5 million



Economic Summary

August 2016

per month, the low-est level seen since November of 2007. Initial claims ac-tivity is expected to be stable over the next few months before seasonally ris-ing over the winter.

From the recessionary low of 56,000 employers, Nevada has seen the num-ber of businesses in the Nevada un-employment insurance system grow by 11,500 (20.5 percent). In the second quarter of 2016, the number of em-ployers totaled 67,500, an increase of 590 employers, or 0.9 percent, from 2016:IQ. In fact, Nevada has set a new record number of employers for seven consecutive quarters. On a year-over-year basis, the number of employers in the Silver State increased by 4,900, or 7.9 percent. Additionally, year-over-year, employer totals have increased for the last 20 quarters. While the year-over-year growth in employers is relatively substantial, it is partially attributable to an amendment made to NRS 616B.691, which required cli-ent companies, who lease employees from Professional Employer Organiza-tions (PEOs), to be tracked individually in Nevada’s unemployment insurance system. However, the impact of this statute change was primarily seen in 2015:IVQ and 2016:IQ.

As Nevada’s Unemployment Insur-ance Trust Fund continues to recover from the effects of the recession, the question that arises is: when will the Fund have enough to be considered adequate? Prior to addressing the when, we fi rst have to determine the Fund balance which would be con-sidered adequate. The most widely used method of understanding UI Trust Fund adequacy is the Average High Cost Multiple (AHCM), which uses the product of total wages and the average of the three highest benefi t cost rates over the last 20 years to provide an es-timate of the balance required to cover a year’s worth of benefi t payments dur-ing an economic downturn. If a state’s Trust Fund balance is less than this

amount, the state has an AHCM less than 1.0. At the end of the second quarter of 2016, Nevada’s AHCM was 0.56, as the State’s Trust Fund balance of $575.7 million was below the $1.03 billion required to have an ACHM of 1.0

With that said, we can address when expect the Trust Fund to reach the AHCM adequacy level. Assuming con-tinued stability in both the UI tax rate and benefi t payments, the UI Trust Fund balance will likely reach the $1 billion mark in the second quarter of 2018. The AHCM would also hit 1.0 in that quarter – the fi rst time that Ne-vada’s UI Trust Fund would have a mul-tiple of at least 1.0 since 2007. While having an AHCM of 1.0 is marked im-provement, this is the minimum recom-mended balance level for a Trust Fund. In a deep recession, even a Trust Fund with an AHCM of 1.0 may not withstand the total benefi t outlay – a fact which lead some states (such as Utah and Oregon) to opt for even higher Trust Fund balances.

- Chelsea Walburg , Economist



Sub-State Economic Summary

2015:IQ-2016:IQ job growth by countyMineral and Storey Have Highest Job Growth Rates in 2016:IQNevada realized encouraging employment

growth in August, with a seasonally adjusted gain of 4,800 jobs Statewide from July. This growth was concentrated in the two largest metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), Las Vegas and Reno/Sparks. Las Vegas em-ployment increased by 5,300 jobs, the result of a 5,500 increase in payrolls (not adjusted for seasonality) when an increase of 200 jobs was expected. Reno/Sparks gained a season-ally adjusted 1,000 jobs after experiencing a nominal jump in payrolls of 1,800, when only 800 new jobs were expected. In Carson City, payrolls decreased by 200 when the expected seasonal change was a decrease of 100. As a result, the State capital employment levels have a seasonally adjusted loss of 100 jobs.

Year-over-year employment growth was posi-tive for all three of the Silver State’s largest population centers. Las Vegas grew at 2.9 per-cent, the same rate as the State as a whole. This growth translates to 26,400 new jobs in Las Vegas since August of last year. Specifi -cally, goods-producing industries added 7,200 jobs and service providers added 19,100¹. Reno/Sparks employment grew at 5.4 per-cent over the year, amounting to 11,400 new jobs. Service providers added 10,200 jobs in the area and goods-producing industries in-creased payrolls by 900. Finally, Carson City added 300 jobs since August 2015, a growth rate of 1.1 percent. Service-providing indus-tries gained 600 jobs over the period while goods-producing industries lost 200. State-wide, 37,200 new jobs were gained over the year.

While monthly employment numbers come from the Current Employment Statistics pro-gram, the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) provides a more compre-hensive, but less timely, count of employment and wage data for workers covered by Nevada unemployment insurance laws. County-level QCEW information for this year’s fi rst quarter shows that job growth ranges from -7.1 per-cent (Lander) to 33.1 percent (Mineral). Min-eral’s high growth rate is due in part to the area’s relatively low overall population, and

August 2016

-10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0%

Lander

Humboldt

White Pine

Pershing

Lyon

Esmeralda

Nye

Carson City

Elko

Churchill

Douglas

Eureka

Clark

Nevada

Washoe

Lincoln

Storey

Mineral

$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500

Lincoln

Lyon

Douglas

Churchill

Mineral

Carson City

Washoe

Storey

Clark

Nevada

Elko

Nye

Esmeralda

Pershing

White Pine

Humboldt

Lander

Eureka

-6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0%

Pershing

Carson City

White Pine

Lyon

Esmeralda

Lincoln

Elko

Humboldt

Washoe

Churchill

Nye

Nevada

Clark

Douglas

Mineral

Eureka

Lander

Storey

change in average weekly wage by county9 of 17 Counties Realize Pay Increases from 2015:IQ to 2016:IQ

2016:IQ average weekly wagesEureka/Lander/Humboldt Pay Highest Weekly Wages in Nevada

¹ References to total MSA employment are adjusted for seasonality, whereas refer-ences to goods-producing and service-providing industries are not.




represents an increase of 390 jobs over the year. Statewide, job growth came in at three percent. Eleven of the 17 coun-ties experienced growth over the past year, while six (Lander, Humboldt, White Pine, Pershing, Lyon, and Esmeralda) experienced a decrease in employment. All three of the Silver State’s major popu-lation centers realized employment gains during the time period. Job growth in Clark County is just slightly below the State average, at 2.9 percent. Washoe County employment experienced faster growth than the Silver State, at 4.6 per-cent.

Data from QCEW also show that Ne-vada had an average weekly wage of $875 during the fi rst quarter of 2016, an increase of 1.1 percent from a year ear-lier. Across the counties, weekly wages range from $650 (Lincoln) to $2,200 (Eu-reka). Besides Eureka, the only coun-ties with payrolls above $1,000 per week are Lander, Humboldt, and White Pine at $1,600, $1,100, and $1,000 respec-tively. This can be attributed to the high concentration of gold ore mining jobs in these counties. Counties with the high-est growth rates from a year earlier were Storey (7.4 percent), Lander (2.8 per-cent), and Eureka (2.5 percent). The lowest growth rates were found in Persh-ing (-4.2 percent), Carson (-3.3 percent), and White Pine (-2.8 percent). As for Ne-vada’s major population centers, Clark County weekly wages increased 1.5 per-cent from 2015:Q1, to $870, just below the State average. Carson City wages fell to $850, while Washoe County grew by 0.4 percent (also at $850), right below the average weekly wage for the Silver State as a whole.

The Census Bureau’s Local Employment Dynamics (LED) Program offers insight into underlying trends by producing a col-lection of enhanced labor market statis-tics. Among other things, LED informa-tion allows for a comparison of new-hire wages to average wages. Statewide, newly hired workers tend to earn about

August 2016

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Lincoln

Washoe

Carson City

Nye

Nevada

Churchill

Clark

Douglas

White Pine

Lyon

Humboldt

Lander

Elko

Pershing

Storey

Esmeralda

Mineral

Eureka

new-hire monthly average wage by countyNine Counties Exceed 70% of New-Hire Average Wage

two-thirds of the average for all work-ers. Within Nevada, new-hire earn-ings in every county are below the overall average. Lincoln has the low-est ratio, with newly hired workers earning only 60 percent of the over-all average wage. The highest new-hire earnings are found in Eureka, at $5,400 per month. This is about 90 percent of the overall average of $6,100/month. All told, new-hire earn-ings in ten counties slightly exceed 70 percent of the overall average. Taken as a whole, these fi ndings support the fact that longer-term employees, as a group, are paid more than those with less seniority on the job.

This month, initial claims for unem-ployment insurance on a county lev-el largely refl ect the declining trend seen statewide. Through August, 14 of Nevada’s 17 counties have seen year-to-date declines in initial claims. Nominally, the largest de-clines have unsurprisingly been in Clark (-5,500) and Washoe (-1,700), though Churchill, Elko, and Lyon have all experienced year-to-date declines of more than 11 percent. Only Esmer-alda and Pershing have seen minimal year-to-date increases in the number

of initial claims.

In August, unemployment rates were down in all of the State’s major popu-lation centers, both on a month-over-month basis and over the year². Car-son City and Las Vegas both were home to unemployment rates of six percent, down 0.4 and 0.7 percentage points, respectively, from July. Carson City unemployment is down one per-centage point from this time last year, while Las Vegas unemployment has decreased 0.8 percentage point over the same period. Reno/Sparks un-employment is down 0.5 percentage point from last month, at 4.9 percent, and down 1.1 percentage points from August of 2015, making this month the fi rst time the rate has fallen below fi ve percent since the end of 2007.

Unemployment rates are down across all 17 counties in Nevada this month, from a low of 4.4 percent in Elko to a high of 8.5 percent in Mineral. Esmer-

² The State’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is 6.3 per-cent in August, down from 6.5 percent in July and down from 6.6 percent in August 2015. Unemployment rates for the State’s met-ropolitan areas and counties reported here are not adjusted for seasonality. Hence, comparisons to the State’s seasonally adjusted rate should be avoided. Legitimate comparisons, however, can be made to the State’s unadjusted rate – 5.8 percent in August, down from 6.5 percent in July and down from 6.7 percent in August 2015.




alda, Mineral, and Lander experienced the largest month-over-month drops in unemployment, each decreasing the jobless rate by one percentage point or more in August. Esmeralda, with the largest drop of 1.6 percentage point, joins Elko and White Pine counties with the lowest unemployment rates in the State. Mineral experienced the second largest drop in unemployment since July but continues to have the highest rate overall, and is also joined by Nye and Lyon with unemployment rates over seven percent.

Year-to-date, online job posting activ-ity³ is up in 16 of 17 counties. Clark County continues to experience the largest increase with 103,200 total jobs ads this year, a net gain of 5,600 ads over this time last year. Washoe also realized signifi cant growth in postings, with a year-to-date increase of 4,600 ads, a total of 27,400 postings. Car-son City has shown impressive growth with 1,500 more job ads this year than in 2015, bringing the State capital’s to-tal to 5,400 ads. Pershing is the only county to receive less job ads year-to-date than in 2015, with 200 posts, a defi cit of 20 compared to last year.

- Hayley Smith-Kirkham, Economist

³ The Department of Employment, Training, and Rehabilitation is a client of Burning Glass Technologies. Among other things, Burning Glass has developed a number of tools to assist a variety of workforce development entities in efforts to match workers with jobs. Online job posting information is available via their Labor Insight tool.

August 2016


Nevada Economy In Brief

Trends at a Glance

Industrial Employment

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A

'14 '15 '16

percent change

jobs

Jobs Pct. Change

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Nevada U.S.

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Nevada U.S.

(Year-Over-Year Percent Change; Seasonally Adjusted)Job Growth: Nevada vs. U.S.

Seasonally Adjusted Change Nevada Nonfarm Jobs

Nevada Job Growth(Seasonally Adjusted)

Growth in Nevada has exceeded that in the U.S. for 49 straight months.

U.S. = 1.7 percent

Nevada = 2.9 percent

August

August marks 68 straight months of growth in Nevada.

37,200 jobs added over-the-year

August

Las Vegas seasonally adjusted jobs = 5,300

Total seasonally adjusted jobs = 4,800

August

Expected SeasonallyUnadjusted Seasonal Adjusted

Change Movement ChangeTotal Nonfarm Jobs 6,400 1,600 4,800 Private Sector 5,200 600 4,600 Public Sector 1,200 1,000 200Las Vegas 5,500 200 5,300Reno 1,800 800 1,000Carson City -200 -100 -100

1,301,300 non-farm jobs

Reno seasonally adjusted jobs = 1,000

Carson City seasonally adjusted jobs = -100

August 2016



Trends at a Glance

Industrial Employment

-2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

Mining/Logging

Other Services

Manufacturing

Financial Activities

Government

Leisure/Hospitality

Professional/Business Services

Education/Health Services

Construction

Trade/Transportation/Utilities

-2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

Mining/Logging

Other Services

Manufacturing

Financial Activities

Government

Leisure/Hospitality

Professional/Business Services

Education/Health Services

Construction

Trade/Transportation/Utilities

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

'12 '13 '14 '15 '16 YTD

Las Vegas Reno Carson City

(Year-to-Date)Job Growth by Industry

(Percent Change)Job Growth by Region

Trade, Transportation/Utilities added 9,100 jobs, more than any other sector.

Nine sectors added jobs through August; mining/logging was the only sector to contract.

Total job growth = 32,800 jobs

August

Carson City = -0.4 percent year-to-date

Las Vegas MSA = 2.6 percent year-to-date

Reno-Sparks MSA = 4.2 percent year-to-date

August

August 2016



Trends at a Glance

Unemployment

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

ElkoWhite PineEsmeralda

WashoeEureka

DouglasLincoln

HumboldtChurchillNevadaStoreyLander

Carson CityPershing

ClarkLyonNye

Mineral

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A

'14 '15 '16

Las Vegas Reno Carson City

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Nevada U.S.

Unemployment Rate by County

Unemployment Rate by Metro Area

(Seasonally Adjusted)Unemployment Rate: Nevada vs. U.S.

Clark = six percent; Washoe = 4.9 percent; Carson City = six percent.

Unemployment rates ranged from 8.5 percent (Mineral) to 4.4 percent (Elko).

August (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Carson City = six percent; down one percentage point from August 2015.

Reno-Sparks MSA = 4.9 percent; down 1.1 percentage point from August 2015.

Las Vegas-Paradise MSA = six percent; down 0.8 percentage point from August 2015.

Nevada = 6.3 percent; down 0.3 percentage point from August 2015.

August (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

1.4 point gap between Nevada and the Nation compares to 4.4 points at the height of the recession.

U.S. = 4.9 percent; unchanged from July; down from 5.1 percent a year ago.

Nevada = 6.3 percent; down 0.2 percentage point from July; down from 6.6 percent a year ago.

August

August 2016



Trends at a Glance

Unemployment

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Initial Claims 12-Month Moving Average Exhaustion Rate

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Initial Claims 12-Month Moving Average Exhaustion Rate

Nevada Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims and Exhaustion Rate

Exhaustion rate (the percentage of unemployment insurance claimants who exhausted UI benefi ts prior to fi nding a job) = 38.4 percent.

Initial claims = 11,000

August

August 2016



Trends at a Glance

Demographics of the Unemployed

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Age 16-24 Age 25-34 Age 35-44 Age 45-54 Age 55+

August 2016 August 2015

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

White Black HispanicAugust 2016 August 2015

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

Male Female


Unemployment Rate by Gender(12-Month Moving Average)

Unemployment Rate by Ethnicity(12-Month Moving Average)

Unemployment Rate by Age Group(12-Month Moving Average)

Age 55+ unemployment rate = 5.6 percent; down 0.4 percentage point from July; up 0.2 percentage point from a year ago.

Age 45-54 unemployment rate = 5.8 percent; down 0.4 percentage point from July; unchanged from a year ago.

Age 35-44 unemployment rate = 4.8 percent; un-changed rom July; down 1.1 percentage points from a year ago.

Age 25-34 unemployment rate = 5.8 percent; down 0.3 percentage point from July; down 2.2 percentage points from a year ago.

Age 16-24 unemployment rate = 11.5 percent; down 0.1 percentage point from July; down 1.6 percentage points from a year ago.

August

Hispanic unemployment rate = 6.8 percent; down 0.6 percentage point from July, up 0.8 percentage point from a year ago.

Black unemployment rate = 12.5 percent; up 0.3 percentage point from July; down 1.1 percentage points from a year ago.

White unemployment rate = 5.3 percent; down 0.4 percentage point from July; down 1.2 percentage points from a year ago.

August

Female unemployment rate = 6.2 percent; down 0.2 percentage point from July; down one percentage point from a year ago.

Male unemployment rate = 6.5 percent; down 0.2 percentage point from July; down 0.7 percentage point from a year ago.

August

August 2016



Trends at a Glance

Demographics of the Unemployed

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%


Unemployment Rate by Veterans’ Status(12-Month Moving Average)

Veteran unemployment rate = 5.1 percent; down 0.2 percentage point from July; down 1.1 percentage points from a year ago.

August

August 2016



Trends at a Glance

Economic Indicators

2,500,000

2,700,000

2,900,000

3,100,000

3,300,000

3,500,000

3,700,000

3,900,000

'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Visitor Volume 12-Month Moving Average

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

$4,500

$5,000

$5,500

'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Taxable Sales 12-Month Moving Average

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

$4,500

$5,000

$5,500

'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Taxable Sales 12-Month Moving Average

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

$1,200

'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Gaming Win 12-Month Moving Average

Las Vegas Visitor Volume

(Millions of Dollars)Statewide Taxable Sales

Nevada Gross Gaming Win(Millions of Dollars)

92,100 visitor increase from prior year (2.5 percent); up 1.7 percent year-to-date over 2015.

3,828,000 visitors

July

Up 9.6 percent year-over-year

Taxable sales = $4.87 billion

June

Up ten percent year-over-year; up 1.5 percent year-to date over 2015.

Gross gaming win = $1.02 billion

July

August 2016



Trends at a Glance

Economic Indicators

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Visitor Volume 12-Month Moving Average

Reno Visitor Volume

14,500 visitor increase from prior year (3.1 percent); up 3.9 percent year-to-date over 2015.

475,800 visitors

July

August 2016



Trends at a Glance

Real-Time Labor Market Information

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Job Openings Rate 12-Month Moving Average

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Unemployed Per Posting 12-Month Moving Average

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

Maintenance and Repair Workers, General

Accountants and Auditors

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

Managers, All Other

Software Developers, Applications

Human Resources Specialists

Registered Nurses

Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, ExceptTechnical and Scientific Products

Computer Occupations, All Other

Medical and Health Services Managers

Unemployed per Online Job Posting

Job Openings Rate

Occupations with Above Average WagesJob Openings Rates for Online Postings

Jobs became available at a rate of 1.24 percent, indicating employment prospects are trending up.

August

For every job posting there are 5.4 unemployed persons, down from 5.7 in August 2015.

August

The job openings rate is the ratio of the number of online job postings to the sum of job postings and employment.

For occupations earning above-average wages, Medical and Health Services Managers have the highest job openings rate.

August

August 2016



Trends at a Glance

Real-Time Labor Market Information: Spotlight on Nevada

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200

Cooks, Restaurants

General Maintenance and Repair Workers

Hand Laborers for Freight/Stock/Material Movers

All Other Managers

First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers

Customer Service Representatives

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

Retail Salespersons

Sales Representatives for Wholesale/ Manufacturing,except technical/scientific products

Registered Nurses

Job Postings

0 400 800 1,200 1,600 2,000

Residential Building Construction

Department Stores

Gambling Industries

Restaurants and Other Eating Places

Colleges, Universities, and Professional Schools

Insurance Carriers

Business Support Services

General Medical and Surgical Hospitals

Traveler Accommodation

Job Postings

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Job Postings 12-Month Moving Average

Top Occupations in Demand

Top Industries

Nevada Job Postings

The top occupations in demand are registered nurses, followed by sales representatives.

August

The industries with the most postings are traveler accommodation and general medical/surgical hospitals.

August

Nevada online job postings total 16,800; up from 18,400 a year ago.

August

August 2016



Trends at a Glance

CBER-DETR Nevada Coincident and Leading Employment Indexes

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16

Recessions Leading Index

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16

Recessions Coincident Index

CBER-DETR Nevada Coincident Employment Index

CBER-DETR Nevada Leading Employment Index

For the leading index, the short-duration unemployment rate (inverted), the real Moody’s Baa bond rate (invert-ed), commercial permits, housing permits, and initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted) moved in a positive direction, while construction employment moved in a negative direction.

For the leading index, initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), housing permits, commercial per-mits, the short-duration unemployment rate (inverted), construction employment, and the real Moody’s Baa bond rate (inverted) all moved in a positive direction.

The Nevada Leading Employment Index measures the ups and downs of the Nevada economy, providing a signal about the future direction of the coincident index. For the current employment recession, the leading in-dex provided a clear signal by peaking in January 2006, fourteen months before the coincident index reached its peak, and reached a bottom in May 2009, fi ve months before the coincident index reached its bottom.

For the coincident index, the insured unemployment rate (inverted), the unemployment rate (inverted), nonfarm employment, and household employment all moved in a positive direction.

The July release tells a consistent, positive story for both the coincident and leading indexes on a year-over-year basis. For the coincident index, the unemployment rate (inverted), household employment, nonfarm em-ployment, and the insured unemployment rate (inverted) all moved in a positive direction.

The Nevada Coincident Employment Index measures the ups and downs of the Nevada economy using an index of employment variables. The peak of the last employment cycle in Nevada occurred in March 2007. The coincident index then regressed steadily through October 2009, where it bottomed out.

July

July

August 2016


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Economy In Brief

Christopher Robison, Supervising Economist

Research & Analysis Bureau

Phone: (775) 684-0450Fax: (775) 684-0342E-mail: [email protected]

The Nevada Economy in Brief provides a wealth of Nevada workforce and economic information and is published monthly by the Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation / Research and Analysis Bureau. Mate-rial contained in this publication is produced in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Labor (the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Employment and Training Administration) and may be reproduced without permission. Please credit the Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Reha-bilitation. For additional workforce or other economic infor-mation, a free subscription to the Nevada Economy in Brief, or to change your e-mail address, please contact the Research and Analysis Bureau.

Don Soderberg, DirectorBill Anderson, Chief Economist

Prepared by the Research and Analysis Bureau

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Documents

Economy In Brieff August 2016 - Nevadaepubs.nsla.nv.gov/statepubs/epubs/497823-2016-08.pdfNevada Workforce Informer, ThNevada Workforce Informer, Th e Department of Employment, Training