District 32 Republican ClubPresentation of Fall 2015 Survey Findings – Anne Arundel County

Dan Nataf, Ph.D.Director, Center for the Study of Local

IssuesAnne Arundel Community College

December 1, 2015www2.aacc.edu/csli

Semi-annual Survey: Overview

• Survey conducted in October and March

• Contents devised by director and advisory board• Many benchmark questions (at beginning)

• Demographic questions (at end)

• Changing middle part – policy, attitudes, behaviors

• Administration: Telephone (by students) and online

• Fall completions: 589

Benchmark Questions• Most important problem facing residents

• Right/wrong direction – county, state and country

• Economic conditions – excellent, good, fair, poor

• Economic experiences/expectations

County: Most Important Question - Fall ‘07 to Fall ‘15

Fall '07 Spring '08

Fall '08 Spring '09

Fall '09 Spring '10

Fall '10 Spring '11

Fall '11 Spring '12

Fall '12 Spring '13

Fall '13 Spring '14

Fall '14 Spring '15

Fall '150

10

20

30

40

50

60

8

23

38

48

3336 36 35

48

3027

23

16 1618

12 1212 1210

87

89

10

57

8 86

1211

9 910

64

68

6 6 68

4

75

9 86

1315

1716

1210

1211

1311

9

17 1719 19

22

28

25

14

Economy EducationCrime/drugsHigh taxes

Economy

Taxes

Crime

Education

County: Most Important Question - Fall ‘15

Government ethics

Healthcare

Government waste

Government lack resources

Other answer

Unsure/No Answer

Drugs

Crime

Education

Environment

Transportation

Growth/overpopulation

Economy

Taxes – too high

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

2

2

4

4

5

6

7

8

9

9

9

10

12

14

Percent Citing

County: Right or Wrong Direction? Fall ‘00 to Fall ‘15

F '00 S '01 F '01 S '02 F '02 S '03 F '03 S '04 F '04 S '05 F '05 S '06 F '06 S '07 F '07 S '08 F '08 S ‘09 F ‘09 S '10 F '10 S '11 F '11 S '12 F '12 S '13 F '13 S '14 F '14 S '15 F '150

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

55

62

66

60 61 62

51

58 58

53

5755

51 52 51 5052

47

52 5249 50

47

43

50 49 50 50 49

58

51

24

15

19

26

21

25

3431

24

2927 26

2927

33 32 3128 27 28 28 28

32

41

3633

3533

38

2522

2023

15 14

18

1315

12

19 1816

1820 21

16 17 17

25

21 2023 22 22

1614

1816 17

13

17

27

Right Wrong Unsure/NA

Right/Wrong Direction – County, State, Nation: Fall ‘12 to Fall ‘15

Fall '12 Spring '13 Fall '13 Spring '14 Fall '14 Spring '15 Fall '150

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

36

24

10

2723

27

21

36 35 3531

27

475150 49 50 50 49

58

51

Nation State County

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

47

2128

52

2621

35

48

16

60

2215

55

31

125

82

11

47

2329

45

34

20 23

59

17

Right/Wrong Direction and Party Registration

Dem Rep Unaffil.

Economic Conditions: ( excellent+good)County vs. Maryland and USA

Sp '09 Fa '09 Sp '10 Fa '10 Sp '11 Fa ‘11 Sp '12 Fa '12 Sp '13 Fa '13 Sp '14 Fa '14 Sp ‘15 Fa '150

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

46 4844 45

49 4851

48 4953

5044

57

64

2730 31 32

35 3338

3330

40 40

28

4145

511 11 11 11 9

1316

12 14

2116

2721

County, State and Country - Economic Conditions Excellent+Good Spring 2009-Fall 2015

Anne Arundel County

Maryland

USA

Economic indicators, Fall 2008-Fall 2015

F '08 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10 S '11 F '11 S '12 F '12 S '13 F '13 S '14 F '14 S '15 F '150

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

58 59 5963

6063

5963 63 62

66 65

74

6662

5855 55 56 56

6358

6659 59 60

5763

5754

30 2933 32 34 35

32 3227

3229

26

40 3833

26

3531

34

27

3633

3734

15

24 2419 21 20 21

1714

19 17 16 1712 1214 16

11 14 16 14 12 11 13

4541 39

Taxes Wages Health care Salary Inc.Unemply. BetterJob Food Education

Economic indicators, Fall 2015Condition Under

$75,000

$75,000+

Under $75k-Over 75K

Signif

Hard to afford cost of food and groceries

41 18 23 .01

Health care insurance is unavailable, too expensive or inadequate

39 28 11 .01

Taxes are too high in relation to the government services provided

63 58 5 .10

Wages or salaries are not rising as fast as the cost of living

56 52 4 .01

Facing the possibility of unemployment

14 11 3 .09

Found a new or better job recently

12 13 -1 .70

Hard to afford the cost of education

36 41 -5 .01

Received a salary increase or other increase in income recently

25 43 -18 .01

Economic Conditions over the next 12 Months

  Better

Same Worse Unsure/NA

Total

Economic growth 28 52 12 7 100Unemployment 28 48 18 7 100

Inflation 9 42 43 7 100Your personal financial

situation22 60 13 5 100

Growth Unemployment Inflation Personal Sit.

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

-3

-9

-43

-2

22

9

-46

6

2622

-38

14

7

-13

-43

23

1

-17

-52

3

15

5

-42

12118

-38

7

29

21

-26

1216

10

-34

9

Four Economic Indicators: Better Minus Worse

F11 S12 F12 S13 F13 S14 F14 S15 F15

Policy Questions• Merger of services: AA County and Annapolis• Teachers’ salaries• Federal auction of CO2 credits• Placement of group homes• Is Annapolis doing enough about sea level

rise/flooding• Ideal size of high schools• Medical marijuana• How well has County dealt with various

challenges over last year

 Public Policy Agreement Agree Disagree

Can’t decide

No answe

rAnne Arundel County and Annapolis are reviewing ways to combine government services. Do you agree or disagree with these efforts?

70 18 9 4County Executive Steve Schuh has proposed to prohibit the planting, processing and sale of medical marijuana in Anne Arundel County. Some members of the County Council have proposed allowing these activities, but with a set of restrictions that limit where these activities can occur. Which position do you favor – total prohibition, or allowing with restrictions?

69 27 4 1

County teachers and the Board of Education are at impasse over contract talks. Teachers believe that they should be awarded salary increases even if it means cuts in other areas of school spending. Do you agree or disagree with the teachers?

51 33 13 2

Do you agree or disagree with the idea that the federal government establish a cap on carbon emissions, auction carbon permits to energy companies, and return all auction proceeds to citizens as a dividend?

51 30 14 5

Currently the County imposes no limits over the location of group homes for unrelated individuals with health concerns. Some have advocated restrictions on group homes’ locations. Do you agree or disagree?

45 35 15 5

Do you agree or disagree that Annapolis is doing enough to deal with flooding due to storm surges and sea level rise?

29 33 27 12

County Executive Steve Schuh has favored high schools with 1200 students; the Board of Education commissioned a study which recommended 1600 as the target high school size. Do you agree or disagree with the Board’s larger size?

25 59 12 4

Public Policy and Partisanship

0102030405060708090 84 77

64 5638 28 28

5473

43 51 60

2538

75 7356 52

4025 31

Percent Agreeing

Democrat Republican Unaffiliated

How well has County dealt with challenges during the last year?

Problem Better-Worse

Gotten better

About the

same

Gotten worse

Unsure/No

answer

Improving the local economy 10 20 63 10 7

Improving the overall quality of life in our County

5 20 57 15 7

Improving the water quality of the Bay

0 21 45 21 14

Planning growth and development

-17 18 36 35 12

Reducing the backlog in school maintenance and repair

-17 12 27 29 32

Keeping taxes low -18 14 46 32 8

Controlling crime -27 9 49 36 6

Reducing poverty and homelessness

-28 4 50 32 14

How well has County dealt with challenges by party

Keeping t

axes lo

w

Controllin

g crim

e

Impro

ving th

e loca

l eco

nomy

Impro

ving the ove

rall quality

of life in

our County

Impro

ving the w

ater q

uality of th

e Bay

Planning gro

wth and development

Reducin

g the b

acklog in

school m

aintenance an

d repair

Reducing pove

rty an

d homelessness

0102030405060708090

100

69 64

9083

7458

48 5368 63

90 85 8265 65

75

57 56

8879 73

5161 64

County dealing with Challenges: Party Percentages saying Better or Same

Democrat Republican Unaffiliated

Various Politics Questions• Trust in political parties• Job approval – county executive, governor,

president• Presidential voting intentions• Correlations between “major factor shaping

your preference” and actual candidate choices

Trust in Party by Registration

Sp '08 Fa '08 Sp '09 Fa '09 Sp '10 Fa '10 Sp '11 Fa ‘11 Sp '12 Fa '12 Sp '13 Fa '13 Sp '14 Fa '14 Sp ‘15 Fall '1515

20

25

30

35

40

45

42

37

33 34

37 37

34

31

37 37 37

3432

3432 33

3028

31

37

34

38

3230

34

38

32

23

31

39

36

33

20

27

31

21 21

17

29

32

21

17

26

37

29

2123

26

Trust in Political Parties: Spring 2008 to Fall 2015

Democrats Republicans Neither

Job approval, Spring 2014/Fall 2015

Sp '14 Fa '14 Sp '15 Fa '150

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

5450

45 43

3327

56

71

3932

37 38

Percentage Saying Approve - County Executive, Governor and President

County Executive Neuman/Schuh Governor O’Malley/Hogan President Barack Obama

O'Malley

Hogan

Neuman

Schuh

NASchuh 35Hogan 15Obama 10

Hogan Schuh Obama0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

59

32

67

91

62

8

67

3936

41

29

8178

45

37

85

56

10

Job Approval by Party and Ideology, Fall 2015

Dem Rep Unaffil. Liberal Moderate Conservative

Presidential Job ApprovalFall 2007 to Fall 2015

F '07 S '08 F '08 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10 S '11 F '11 S '12 F '12 S '13 F '13 S '14 F '14 S '15 F '150

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

3530

25

5247 47

4247

3742 44 44

40 39

3237 38

3228 24

61

54

47

43

47 4045

5049 43 45

40

49

46

Presidential Job Approval - CSLI and Gallup

CSLI Gallup

Presidential Preferences

Hillary

Clinto

n

Martin

O’M

alley

Bernie

Sande

rs

Repub

lican

s

Jeb Bus

h

Ben C

arso

n

Ted C

ruz

Carly

Fiorin

a

John K

asich

Marco

Rub

io

Donald

Trum

p0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2018

2

17

1

18

1

4 46

15

Leaning in Favor of a Candidate

Presidential Preferences by Party/Ideology

Dem-Lib Dem-Mod Dem-Cons Rep-Lib Rep-Mod Rep-Cons Unaffil-Lib Unaffil-Mod Unaffil-Cons0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

35

38

17

1 1

14

18

13

45

23

0 0

3 2

36

21

54 4

37

0

26

34

7

12

23

02

4

0

13 14

58

00

5

31

0

19

25

21

5

32

Clinton Sanders Carson Rubio Trump

DemocratsRepublicans Unaffiliated

36

49 2 12 49 21 12

49

24

47

Candidates and Age Groups: Above/Below Overall Vote

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70+

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

-8

12

-5

0

6

-2

30

-4

5

-6 -6

0

-5 -4 -4

5

-2

27

-3 -3

3

-4

3

-4 -4

2

-1 -1

2

Clinton Sanders Carson Trump Rubio

Candidates and Formal Education Above/Below Overall Vote

Some College 2-4 yr Postgrad

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

-9

1

8

1

-2

136

-9

32

-9

-23

Clinton Sanders Carson Trump

Candidates and Gender Above/Below Overall Vote

Clinton Sanders Carson Trump

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

-8 -7

3

17

8 7

-3

-18

Male Female

Clinton Sanders Carson Trump

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

4

-3 -4

11

-4

3 4

-11

Income - Under $75k vs. $75k+

0-75 75+

Candidates and Issues

Candidates and Issues Clinton Sanders Carson Trump RubioEconomy 13.0 14.9 4.6 12.5 8.8 Foreign policy 14.4 2.6 6.0 4.0 37.4 Inequality 3.2 12.6 0.7 0.0 0.0 Immigration 3.9 0.0 3.9 7.0 0.0 Spending, debt 0.0 3.0 3.9 5.5 2.2 Constitution 0.0 1.1 6.7 0.0 4.4 Liberal 4.6 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 Taxes, lower 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 Health Care 0.0 0.0 4.6 0.0 0.0 Business pro 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.5 0.0 Womens issues 6.0 3.3 1.1 0.0 0.0 Party 0.0 0.0 2.8 2.0 0.0 Crime/safety 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Education 0.0 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Environment 1.1 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 Smaller govt, less regs. 0.0 1.9 0.7 0.0 2.2 Guns 1.1 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Anti-corporate 0.0 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Abortion - anti 0.0 1.1 1.1 1.5 0.0 Conservative 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.0 0.0 Military 0.0 0.0 2.1 1.0 0.0 Religion - pro 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.0 0.0 Other 2.8 9.3 4.2 4.0 3.3 Total 49.8 72.5 47.4 49.0 58.2

Candidates and Traits Clinton Sanders Carson Trump Rubio

Leadership, competence 11.6 4.8 7.4 13.5 9.9 Honest, trustworthy, independent 5.3 5.6 9.5 3.5 8.8 Consensus builder 4.2 1.9 9.1 5.5 3.3 Fresh face, change 0.7 1.9 11.9 10.5 3.3 Experience 17.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 America first 0.0 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.4 Hard truths, frankness 0.0 1.1 3.5 9.5 0.0 Working people, cares 4.6 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 Middle class 0.0 1.9 0.0 3.0 0.0 Ethical 0.0 0.0 2.8 0.0 4.4 Character 0.0 1.1 1.4 0.0 0.0 Electable 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.0 0.0 Intelligence 6.0 1.1 1.1 1.5 7.7 Total 50.2 27.5 52.6 51.0 41.8