2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel Community College

2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County

By Dan Nataf, Ph.D.Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues

Anne Arundel Community Collegewww2.aacc.edu/csli

http://www.aacc.edu/

Contrast past with present: Ehrlich’s 2002 victory – the ascendance of ‘red’ Maryland over ‘blue’


What was the significance of Ehrlich’s 2002 victory? Was this a personal victory for Bob Ehrlich, or a general victory for the Republican Party and new policy priorities?

Republican Vote Statewide Offices 1990-2006

Governor, 46

Comptroller, 39AG, 41

Senate, 44

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

Governor

Comptroller

AG

Senate



Contrast past with present: Ehrlich’s vote in 2006

2002 vs. 2006

Ehrlich drops from 51.6% to 47.7%

879,592 votes to 825,464 (-54,128)Dem rises from 813,422 to 942, 279 (+128,857)

• Ehrlich’s largest drop in counties that were most supportive in 2002 – down 7% from 67% to 60% in ’02 majority counties• Small drop in least supportive jurisdictions – down from 29% to 27%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

Ehrlich Vote 2002, 2006

Ehrlich '02

Ehrlich '06


2006 Elections: A Return to a

BlueMaryland?

Counties by Republican Score

Strong R 60+ Rep score

Leans R 55-59 Rep

scoreContested45-54 Rep

scoreLeans D

40-44 Rep score

Strong D0-39 Rep score

JurisdictionEhrlich '06

Rep Local offices

Rep Gen Assem Rep Score

Carroll 70 100 100 90

Garrett 67 100 -- 84

Caroline 66 78 100 81

Frederick 60 82 88 77

Harford 63 77 75 72

Washington 61 73 75 70

Allegany 57 67 75 66

Kent 55 33 100 63

Somerset 59 27 100 62

Queen Anne's 67 55 -- 61

Anne Arundel 57 64 56 59

Calvert 57 55 -- 56

Talbot 64 45 -- 55

Dorchester 61 25 75 54

Wicomico 63 43 -- 53

Cecil 58 33 -- 46

Worcester 65 38 33 45

St. Mary's 58 45 25 43

Howard 49 25 50 41

Baltimore 51 7 30 29

Charles 48 9 25 27

Montgomery 37 0 3 13

Baltimore City 23 0 0 8

Prince George's 21 0 0 7

Composite Picture – 2006


Party Registration in Maryland, 2000-06

57.00% 56.40% 56.00% 55.80% 55.30% 55.00%

29.60% 29.90% 30.00% 30.00% 29.30% 29.30%

13.20% 13.10% 13.00% 13.20% 13.90% 14.00%

Dem, 55.10%

Rep, 28.90%

Unaffil, 13.90%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Dem

Rep

Unaffil

Trends in Party Registration - Statewide


How do Republican Candidates Win without Party Registration Advantages?

Democratic defectors hold the key to Ehrlich success in 2002:

All Rep and unaffiliated voters = 731128

Ehrlich ’02 vote = 879592

Democratic defections (and other party registrants):

2002 -148464

2006 - 11927

979740

1095069

561884614704

169244198833

731128

813537879592

825464

148464

11927

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

Dem Voters Rep Voters Unaffiliated Voters Total Rep+Unaffil. Ehrlich Vote Dem Defectors -Min

Statewide Party Registration and Ehrlich Vote '02, '06

2002

2006



Anne Arundel Only Results

66972

-2254

-28743

-20788

-53215

-27581

-60000

-40000

-20000

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

Govr's Races: Dem-Rep Votes

Schaeffer vs. Mooney83%, 17%

Schaeffer vs. Shepard, 49%, 51%

Glendening vs. Sauerbrey, 40%, 60%

Glendening vs. Sauerbrey, 43%, 57%

Townsend vs Ehrlich, 35%, 65% O'Malley vs.

Ehrlich, 42%, 57%


Anne Arundel Consistently supports Rep. Gubernatorial Candidates

2006 Elections: Anne Arundel County Focus

134500

118200

54300

7801074466

24435

78428

106145

82159

100403

9008487978

9022690129

89180

9301894392

83217

90368

83119

78440

91399

59905

106970

66463

90967

66807

84603

67422

8148079060

91619 89095

87688

15000

25000

35000

45000

55000

65000

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

Major Races by Party

Dem

Rep

Unaffiliated

Anne Arundel

How do Republican Candidates Win without Party Registration Advantages – Data from Anne Arundel County Exit Poll

Democratic defectors more numerous (17%) than Republican defectors (10%)

Unaffiliated voted disproportionately for Ehrlich (54%)

Party Registration

Ehrlich O’Malley Others Didn’t vote

Cases

Democrats 17 79 3 6 180

Republicans 89 10 0 1 167

Unaffiliated 54 40 6 0 50

Other 83 8 0 8 12

2006 Elections: Party Defections – Govr’s Race Anne Arundel County Results

What issues were salient in Governor’s Race in 2006? Data from Anne Arundel County Exit Poll

Depends how you ask the question!

Closed-ended:

Economy -21%

Education – 18%

Taxes – 16%

Crime - 13

Open-ended:

Education – 18%

Taxes – 8%

Economy – 5%

Crime -4%

Issue Type of Poll Closed-ended

Issue Closed Open Ehrlich O’Malley

Economy 21 5 53 44

Education 18 18 43 57

Taxes 16 8 69 31

Crime 13 4 55 40

Growth 8 3 62 39

Cost of living 6 3 50 50

Slots 6 3 80 20

Healthcare 5 0 13 88

Environment 3 3 40 60

Work with legislature

3 0 25 75

College tuition 3 2 60 40

Nothing cited 0 51

Total 100 100

2006 Elections: Govr’s Race - Anne Arundel County

Type of Survey Closed-ended

Traits Open Closed Ehrlich O’Malley

Honesty, trustworthy 33 10 44 56

All others 21 0 -- --

Party 7 0 -- --

Leadership, competence, has a plan 7 22 55 45

Clear, straightforward, forthright 6 0 -- --

Generally likeable character 6 0 -- --

Persistent, consistent 5 0 -- --

Right experience 4 25 69 31

Past record 3 0 -- --

Integrity/right moral outlook 3 21 73 22

Overall beliefs 3 0 -- --

Family man 2 6 10 90

Understand the needs of others 0 12 20 75

Works well with others 0 4 14 86

Total 100 100

Traits Motivating Vote for Governor Data from Anne Arundel County Exit Poll


Informed about Governor/County Executives Candidates’ Stands on Issues?

How informed? Govr

Cty Exec.

Very 56 34

Somewhat 37 45

Not very 7 21

Total 100 100

Traits Motivating Vote for Governor – Exceeds Party Expectations?


5 5

42

20

0

-9

-43

17

7

-25

-12

0

18

43

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Honesty,trustworthy

Leadership,competence, has

a plan

Right experience Integrity/rightmoral outlook

Family man Understand theneeds of others

Works well withothers

Ehrlich

O'Malley

4947

54

45

60

37

60

40

4850

36

56

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-70 70+

Graph 1: Age and Vote for Governor

Ehrlich %

O’Malley %


Anne Arundel County Only: Demographics and the Vote for Governor - Age


Exit Poll: Demographics and the Vote for Governor - Gender

58

45

13

38 39

-1

50

37

13

4948

1

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Ehrlich Republican Difference O'Malley Democrats Difference

Male

Female

Demographics and Vote for Governor - Race

27

61

67

37

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Ehrlich % O’Malley %

Graph 2: Race and Governor Vote

African-Americans

Caucasians

61

27

37

61

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Ehrlich O'Malley

Race and Candidate Vote

Caucasian

African-American


Demographics: Lower income negates Ehrlich vote advantage on education

4447

43

55

50 50

23

73

60

33

69

29

68

32

57

43

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

High school Some college Bachelor'sdegree

Postgrad work High school Some college Bachelor'sdegree

Postgrad work

Graph 5: Education, Income and Vote for Governor

Ehrlich

O'Malley

Lower Income Higher Income


10556

8842

1103275

16518

5036

681

20014

5188

13593

9303

826

8975

24044

1229

16325

11636

1335

9500

15350

1302

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

COUNTYCOUNCIL 1

COUNTYCOUNCIL 2

COUNTYCOUNCIL 3

COUNTYCOUNCIL 4

COUNTYCOUNCIL 5

COUNTYCOUNCIL 6

COUNTYCOUNCIL 7

Dem, Rep and Blank Votes by Council District '06


Anne Arundel County Voting Quirks – Blank Votes by Council District


8178782155

43400

128890

38399

71937

80754

15639

83017

73570

11674

71807

94053

642

8273179364

5933

8245677644

8188

75047

89009

12780

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

Dem, Rep and Blank Votes - Countywide Offices 2006

Dem

Rep

Blank

Anne Arundel County Voting Quirks – Blank Votes by Countywide Races

65.1%

62.1%

58.1%59.5% 60.0%

55.1%57.2%

62.8%

68.8%66.2%

64.8% 64.2%61.9%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

Anne Arundel County Only: Rep % of all Abstentee/Provisional


More Voting Quirks: Republicans dominate absentee/provisional ballots

54899

57615

87676

63879

89456

83305

89613

93533

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

1994 1998 2002 2006

AA County Executive Races 1994-2006

Dem

Rep


County Executive Results

Anne Arundel Only: Vote for County Executive/County Executive by Party (short form)

Republicans Democrats Didn’t Vote

Ehrlich Leopold O’Malley Johnson Govr. County Exec.

Cases

Democrats 17 22 79 74 6 4 180

Republicans 89 80 10 14 1 5 167

Unaffiliated 54 39 40 55 0 6 50

Other 83 42 8 42 8 17 12


More defections in County Executive race; unaffiliated voters move from Republican to Democratic support

7

-7

0-2

-11

11

-24

27

6

-20

-12

8

-12

9

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

StrongDemocrat

WeakDemocrat

IndependentDemocrat

UnaffiliatedIndependent

IndependentRepublican

WeakRepublican

StrongRepublican

Graph 9: Governor-County Executive Vote

Partisan feelings Leopold

Partisan feelings Johnson


Changes in County Executive Vote from Governor by Partisanship

2859

2392

18411632

488

-443

-2241

2924

20721631

-119

Johnson gap with Leopold-4027 in District 5

1379

5250

1903

977

644

-1983

-5000

-4000

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

District 1 District 2 District 3 District 4 District 5 District 6 District 7

State's Attorney vs. County Executive Races by Council District

Weathersbee-Johnson

Weathersbee-Fischer

Johnson-Leopold

Fischer-Leopold


County Executive Candidates: Issues and Traits

48

66

20

36

49 49

81

40

4951

35

80

65

43

52

19

60

52

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Johnson

Leopold41

5452

82

15

60

40

48

15

36

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Honesty Strong leader Experience Understands needs ofpeople like me

Intelligence

Johnson

Leopold

Traits and the Vote for County Executive Issues and the Vote for County Executive


-6

-1

-9

-12

6

-8

-7

6

-3

-2

0

-3

3

-1

0

10

-2

0

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

0-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-70 71+

Graph 10: Changes in Support by Age Group

Leopold

Johnson

No Vote

Age/Education and County Executive Vote vs. Governor Vote

-2

5

6

-8

5 5

-4

1

4

-3

1

3

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

High school Some college Bachelor’s degree Postgraduate work

Graph 12: Change in Vote for County Executive vs. Governor

Leopold

Johnson

No Vote


County Executive Vote and Demographics

Factors Influencing the Vote for County Executive by Candidate

Influence Overall Leopold Johnson Cases

The candidate or a representative came to my door to introduce him/herself

13 80 20 20

Information from the Internet 13 65 30 20

Literature received in the mail 15 63 33 24

Endorsed by a newspaper like the Capital, Washington Post or the Sun

14 57 44 23

Newspaper stories about candidate 20 47 50 32

Conversations with friends or family 22 41 51 37

I saw the candidate speak at a public forum 11 41 53 17

Endorsed by some person or group I respect 33 39 59 54

Paid ads in the newspapers 5 38 63 8

Candidate’s name from signs along major roads 5 38 50 8

Paid ads on TV 15 29 67 24

I personally knew the candidate from church, civic/sports association, etc.

8 27 73 11


10556

8842

275

16518

681

20014

13593

9303 8975

24044

16325

11636

9500

16613

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7Council District

Council Council 1998-2006

Dem98

Dem02

Dem06

Rep98

Rep02

Rep06

County Council: Districts firm up partisan images


CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007Schools and Taxes

Since the Elections: Schools and Taxes

Visions for Anne Arundel County Public Schools %

I favor a school system which is absolutely top quality regardless of the cost. 50

I favor a school system which is of good quality but doesn’t increase my taxes. 36

Other volunteered answer 7

No answer 7

Total 100

Support for Superintendent’s Request for a 17% School Budget Increase?

Position %

Fully fund this proposal by raising some County taxes. 25

Fully fund this proposal by reducing other County services 20

Partially fund this proposal to the extent possible without increasing taxes or reducing other County services.

43

Other volunteered answer 6

No answer 7

Total 100

CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007

Since the Elections: How to Pay for Looming County Expenses?

Response Percent

The county should pay for these expenses without raising any taxes or fees, even if it has to cut back on other public services

31

The county should pay for these expenses by a combination of cost reductions and tax increases

55

Some other volunteered answer 8

No answer 7

Total 101


Since the Elections: Taxes and Spending Balance

Generally, do you trust the County to find the right balance between paying for these expenses and keeping taxes as low as possible?

42

52

6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Yes No No answer

YesNoNo answer

CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007Heard about BRAC? Positive or Negative Impact?

Since the Elections: BRAC

69

25

52

55

23

10 8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Yes/P

ositiv

e

No/Neg

ative

Unsure

No ans

wer

Heard about BRAC

Impact


Since the Elections: Various State and Local Legislative Proposals

Proposal Agree Disagree No answer

Banning all roadside solicitation on County roads 76 21 3

Increasing the cigarette tax by one dollar to help pay for increasing health insurance coverage to the uninsured.

72 27 1

Banning smoking in all restaurants and bars 68 29 3

Forcing all new cars sold in Maryland to comply with California pollution standards

51 40 9

Repealing the death penalty in Maryland 33 58 9


Since the Elections: President Bush’s Job Approval

4145

54 5558

7 8 7 7

3537

36

3437 39

48

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Fall '05 Sp '06 Fall '06 Sp '07

Gallup Approve

Approve

Disapprove

No answer

Documents

2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel Community College