1 Public Opinion and Issues in Anne Arundel County: Leadership Anne Arundel Presentation January 20, 2011 Dan Nataf, PhD Director, Center for the Study

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Public Opinion and Issues in Anne Arundel County: Leadership Anne Arundel Presentation

January 20, 2011

Dan Nataf, PhDDirector, Center for the Study of Local IssuesAnne Arundel Community College101 College ParkwayArnold, MD 21012(410) 777-2733(410) 777-4733 fax [email protected]

www2.aacc.edu/csli

mailto:[email protected]

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LAA Presentation – Jan. 20, 2011The Center for the Study of Local Issues: Overview

• CSLI – Part of Sarbanes Center for Public and Community Service

• Operating since 1978

• Mission: Provide students opportunities for engaged learning, community outreach

• Main activity: Public interest and client surveys/research each semester

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LAA Presentation – Jan. 20, 2011 The Center for the Study of Local Issues: Overview

Surveys: Respondents randomly chosen from universe of listed telephone numbers combined with computer generated numbers

• Typical sample size: 400-900 respondents; students used as interviewers

• Topics: Each survey includes demographic and attitude/behavior questions, including such themes as:

– Economic conditions – Growth/Development– Transportation– Economic conditions– Education– Tax and spending preferences– Policy preferences

• Visit CSLI’s web site for previous surveys (www2.aacc.edu/csli)

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LAA Presentation – Feb. 28, 2009

Main Issues for Today

– County - Right/Wrong direction– Most important problems– Economic conditions– Perceptions of the future– Tax and spending preferences– Housing– Crime– Immigration

LAA Presentation – Jan. 20, 2011

Main Issues for Today (or as far as we get!)

5754

58 5562

6660 61 62

58 5853

57 5551 52 51 50 52

4752 52 49

2327 25 24 23

15

2621

2531

2429 27 26 29 27

33 32 3128 27 28 28

20 19 1720

1519

1418

13 1219 18 16 18 20 21

16 17 17

2521 20 23

Right 51

Wrong 34

Unsure 15

05

10152025303540455055606570

Sp

'99

Fa

'99

Sp

'00

Fa

'00

Sp

'01

Fa

'01

Sp

'02

Fa

'02

Sp

'03

Fa

'03

Sp

'04

Fa

'04

Sp

'05

Fa

'05

Sp

'06

Fa

'06

Sp

'07

Fa

'07

Sp

'08

Fa

'08

Sp

'09

Fa

'09

Sp

'10

Fa

'10

Right Wrong Unsure

Remarkable stability in right/wrong direction…


County – Right/Wrong Direction

6

Fall '04 Spring '05

Fall '05 Spring '06

Fall '06 Spring '07

Fall '07 Spring '08

Fall '08 Spring '09

Fall '09 Spring '10

Fall '10 Mean 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

8 7 7

15

7

12

8

23

38

48

3336 36

20

1013

10 10 9

1517 16

1210

12 1113 12

Economy still top problem, but mostly unchanged since March 2009

Economy /Housing Taxes – too high Growth /developmentEducation / Traffic congestion /problems Crime / drugs


County – Most Important Problem

Percentage saying “excellent” or “good” economy also stable since March 2009

S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10Anne Arundel County Maryland USA

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


County – Economic Conditions vs. State and USA

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LAA Presentation – Jan. 20, 2011 Economic Concerns: Perceptions of the Local and National Economies 2002-2010

National

County

“Thinking about our county's economy, how would you rate economic conditions in Anne Arundel County today -- excellent, good, only fair, or poor?” (Total percentage saying excellent and good)

S'02

F '02 S '03

F '03 S '04

F '04 S '05

F '05 S '06

F '06 S '07

F '07 S '08

F '08 S '09

F '09 S '10

F '100

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

38

26 2722

34 3431

28

3842

3227

17

5 510 11 11

7476

56 5662

74 7471

7471 71 69

55

4946 48

44 45CSLI - AA County

Gallup - USA

AA County Polling Results: Mostly stable findings in % saying a condition ‘applies’

Unabl

e to

find

affor

dabl

e ho

usin

g

Wag

es o

r sal

arie

s are

not

risin

g as

fast

as t

he co

st o

f liv

ing

Hard

to a

fford

the

cost

of t

rans

porta

tion

Hard

to a

fford

the

cost

of u

tiliti

es suc

h as

ele

ctric

ity o

r gas

Taxe

s are

too

high

in re

latio

n to

gov

ernm

ent s

ervi

ces p

rovi

ded

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

21

56

40

61

11

59

32

50

58

12

55

21

5359

13

55

17

42

59

15

56

21

44

63

10

56

24

43

60

S '08 F '08 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10

Some costs have gone down

The economy: what else applies?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

11

6

35

15

71

4

30

24

75

6

51

29

24

70

8

46

33

19

56

7

47

32

21

60

7

44

34

S '08 F '08 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10

Unemployment rose sharply from March ‘08 to March ‘09 and hasn’t changed much since

Stock market recovery lessened ‘losses’ per-centage

Health care anxiety unchanged despite re-form…

Minor improvement in readiness to spend

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LAA Presentation – Jan. 20, 2011 Economic Concerns by Various Demographic Factors

Wag

es o

r sal

arie

s vs.

infla

tion

Unem

ploy

men

t

Sign

ifica

nt lo

sses

in a

ccou

nts

House

loss

No aff

orda

ble

hous

ing

Cost o

f tra

nspo

rtatio

n

Cost o

f util

ities

…

Delay

in m

akin

g a

maj

or p

urch

ase

Health

car

e in

sura

nce

is un

avai

labl

e…

Taxe

s are

too

high

rela

tive…

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

BlackWhiteMenWomenUnder $75Over $75

Income differences influence wages, unemployment, housing, affording utilities, health care and taxes

When will the economy improve?

Economic Condition This year

Next year

Future year

Median year

N.A.

A stabilization of housing values 8 35 51 2012 7A return to steady growth of the economy 5 32 59 2012 5A major reduction in the unemployment rate

4 31 61 2012 4

A return to a better balance between revenues and expenditures for state and local government budgets

3 16 68 2014 13

A return to a better balance between revenues and expenditures for the federal government’s budget

3 10 73 2015 14

LAA Presentation – Jan. 20, 2011 Economic Concerns: When will the economy improve? (Fall 2009)

Proposal Spring 2003 Fall 2003 Spring 2009

Cut programs 40 34 61

Increase taxes 36 34 17

Other (combination, other suggestion)

-- 18 14

Don’t know 24 14 8

Total 100 100 100

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LAA Presentation: Jan. 20, 2011 Funding Government – cut programs or cut spending?

(Spring 2003, Fall 2003, Spring 2009)

The county faces up to a $90 million deficit for the 2011 fiscal year. Which of the following do you think would be the best in dealing with this deficit: Cutting government services, raising taxes, or some of both? Spring 2010

Cutting services 27%Raising taxes 8%Some of both 55%

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Support for various budget measures Support

Oppose

UnsureNA

Increasing impact fees on new construction in AA County F08

63 31 6

Increase income taxes for those over $200k F07 61 36 3

Increase corporate income taxes F07 60 37 3

Increasing the tax on alcoholic products F09 54 39 8

Furloughing county employees to help balance the county’s budget S09

43 44 12

Adding a $30 fee to property taxes to pay for stream and waterway restoration F09

39 56 5

Increase in gasoline tax F07 33 61 6

Cutting millions in state aid to localities F09 32 41 27

General increase in income taxes F03 26 72 3

Shifting the cost of teachers’ pensions to local governments F09

24 58 19

Maintaining current levels of funding for public schools F09

78 17 5

Maintaining the tuition freeze for the Univ. of Maryland F09

79 15 6

LAA Presentation – Jan. 20, 2011 Budget Measures: Taxes, Cuts, Spending

Service Reduced Kept the same Increased Don’t know

Fire department 2 50 46 2

Police department 5 41 53 1

Public Schools 6 35 58 2

The community college 6 49 41 4

Seniors’ services 7 52 39 3

Libraries 8 64 26 2

Roads 10 51 39 1

Health Department 13 46 34 6

Social Services 16 45 35 4

Parks and Recreation 17 59 22 3

Environmental Oversight 18 47 31 4

Planning and Zoning 29 49 13 9

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As county government prepares for the upcoming 2011 fiscal budget, it will consider how to cut spending. As I mention an area of spending, tell me whether spending should be reduced, kept the same or increased as government seeks to balance its budget. (S09)

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Better About the

same

Worse Unsure(vol.)/NA

Economic conditions 47 20 26 8

Growth and development 35 29 31 6

Access to health care 32 23 34 10

Public schools 29 29 37 5

Health care quality 29 32 32 7

Water quality of the Bay and tributaries

29 23 44 5

Air quality 24 32 40 4

Availability of fresh water 17 43 32 7

Crime 11 30 54 6

Local taxes 8 21 66 5

Thinking about this County’s future, please tell me whether you think the following things will be better, about the same or worse in 2020. (F09)

LAA Presentation – Jan. 20, 2011 Future: Better, Same or Worse?

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Housing - What is “Affordable Housing?” (asked Fall 2002)

Attribute cited %

Purchase priceMedian: $150-175,000

39%

A type that is lacking in AA County 20%

Housing type – apartments, townhouses, section 8 19%

User type – low income, poor 9%

Other 12%

Total 100%

Is the lack of affordable housing in Anne Arundel County a problem?

Yes 54% No 34% Don’t know 12%

LAA Presentation – Jan. 20, 2011 Crime: Safety and Security in County and Neighborhood (1997-

2008)

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LAA Presentation – Jan. 20, 2011 Crime: Been a Victim of Crime over Last Year? (1997-

2008)

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LAA Presentation – Jan. 20, 2011 Crime: “Been a Victim of Crime over Last Year” (2008) by Age

20

Overall 18-29 30-44 45-60 60+0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

11

6

1516

4

LAA Presentation – Jan. 20, 2011 Crime: Improve Safety (2008)

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One Thing to Most Improve Safety

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Immigration Questions – Various (Spring 2008)

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Do you think that you personally have benefited from the services of illegal immigrants for example in landscaping, construction, restaurants or janitorial services?

LAA Presentation – Jan. 20, 2011 Personally Benefitting from Illegal Immigrants(Spring 2008)

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They strengthen our country because of their hard work

and talents

They are a burden on our country because they take our jobs, housing and health care.

No answer0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8076

16

8

22

68

9

Legal Illegal

LAA Presentation – Jan. 20, 2011 Legal and Illegal Immigrants (Spring 2008)

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LAA Presentation – Jan. 20, 2011 Stances on Immigration Issues by Political Party (Spring 2008)

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Support

Oppose Unsure Noanswe

r

Total

Environmental measures meant to restrict development in critical areas?

84 11 3 1 99

Efforts by police to identify illegal immigrants and refer them to federal immigration services?

70 25 4 1 100

Increasing impact fees on new construction in our county?

63 31 5 1 100

Creating or increasing fees to sports leagues that use public parks to cover the maintenance of those parks?

50 45 4 1 100

Increasing the tax on hotel stays from 7 percent to 10 percent

33 59 6 1 99

Decreasing the drinking age to 18

29 68 2 1 100

A $500 ambulance fee to help pay for county services?

26 67 6 1 100

LAA Presentation – Jan. 20, 2011 Immigration Enforcement vs. Other Issues (Spring 2008)

Documents

1 Public Opinion and Issues in Anne Arundel County: Leadership Anne Arundel Presentation January 20, 2011 Dan Nataf, PhD Director, Center for the Study