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Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Trends and Findings
November 18, 2005
Presented by
Dan Nataf, Ph.DDirector, Center for the Study of Local Issues
Anne Arundel Community College101 College Parkway
Arnold, MD 21012(410) 777-2733
(410) 777-4733 fax
www2.aacc.edu/csli
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Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Trends and Findings The Center for the Study of Local Issues
Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Trends and Findings The Center for the Study of Local Issues
• CSLI conducts public interest surveys each semester (since 1978)
• Respondents randomly chosen from universe of listed telephone numbers combined with computer generated numbers
• Typical sample size: 300-525 respondents; students used as interviewers
• Each survey includes demographic and attitude/behavior questions
• Surveys themes include: – Growth/Development– Transportation– Economic conditions– Education– Tax and spending preferences– Policy preferences
• Visit CSLI’s web site for previous surveys (www2.aacc.edu/csli)
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Public Opinion in
Anne Arundel County: Recent
Trends and Findings
The Center for the Study
of Local Issues: Web Site
- Homepage
4
Public Opinion in
Anne Arundel County: Recent
Trends and Findings
The Center for the Study
of Local Issues: Web Site- Search
page
5
• Two Questions about Challenges for the next Decade– Main Economic Challenge– Main Environmental Challenge
• Are local authorities up to the challenges?
• Is the public confident in the ability of local authorities to respond to a disaster…?
Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Trends Focus on the Future: Main Challenges
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Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings
Main Economic Challenge for the Next Decade
Managing growth/development 27%
Providing affordable housing 17Providing proper skills/education for workers
11
Providing enough jobs 8Infrastructure, roads 3 Other 25No answer 8
7
Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings
Main Environmental Challenge for the Next Decade
Water pollution in Bay and streams 57%
Air pollution 8Maintaining open/green areas 8
Enforcing environmental laws 4
Other (mostly managing growth) 14
No answer 9
8
Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings Confidence in/perceived preparedness of local authorities – meet
challenges or terrorist strike/natural disaster
Preparedness/
Confidence
Econ. Environ. Terror Disaster
Very 8 7 11 11
Somewhat 45 38 42 49
Not very 41 50 44 36
No answer 7 6 3 4
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Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Trends How Prepared are Local Authorities in Event of Terrorist Strike -
Trend
3022 24 27
44
1513 1511
Very prepared
544847
Somewhat prepared
Not very prepared
37
115 8
Unsure 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
10
Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Trends Most Important Issues Facing AA County Residents –
1995-2005 - Trends for Major Issues Growth Rises in Importance, Crime Drops
Graph 1: Most Important Issue - Trends
2628
26
19
12
19 20
1315
1013
97 6
9 8
18 18
24
31
26
31
2730
2225
21
26
18
3128
Crime 31%
8Crime
36%Growth/Transp
12
Education
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
11
Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Trends Most Important Issues –
Economy, Environment NOT among Top Issues
Graph 1: Most Important Issue - Trends
1
Terrorism19%
14%Taxes
10
6
10
7
Economy 14%
9%
Environment
6
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Sp ‘99
Fa '99
Sp ‘00
Fa ‘00
Sp ‘01
Fa '01
Sp '02
Fa '02
Sp '03
Fa '03
Sp '04
Fa '04
Sp '05
Fa '05
Terrorism Taxes Economy Environment
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Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Trends Perception of Issues in 2010
Negative expectations for all major issues (except economy)
B
etter
About the same
Worse
Fall 2004 Better-Worse
Unsure
No answer
The overall quality of life in the County 33 43 20 13 3 1
Spiritual or religious life 27 47 15 12 7 4 Economic conditions 33 40 23 10 3 1
Family life 27 45 20 7 5 2 General responsiveness of County
government to citizens’ needs 23 47 20 3 8 1
Ethics in local government 20 44 26 -6 9 2 Public schools 28 28 36 -8 7 1
Health care 24 32 36 -12 8 1 Growth and development 30 20 46 -16 3 1
Crime 11 42 42 -31 4 1 Water and air quality 17 32 49 -32 2 1
Local taxes 5 26 64 -59 5 1 Traffic congestion 3 5 92 -89 0 0
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Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent TrendsEconomic Conditions in the County Spring 2002-Fall 2005
AA County economy outperforms nation
Economic Conditions: Local and National
3826 27 22
34 34 31 28
717474
625655
74 76
0
20
40
60
80
100
Spring 2002
Fall 2002
Spring 2003
Fall 2003
Spring2004
Fall2004
Spring2005
Fall2005
AACounty -Exc+Good
Nation -Exc+Good
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Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Trends County’s Direction: Right or Wrong?
Positive feelings affected by perceptions of the economy
Graph 2: County - Right or Wrong Direction
6254 51
57Right
Wrong, 34%
Unsure
42Econ - Poor+Fair
05
10152025303540455055606570
15
Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings Gas Prices: How has Public Accommodated Higher Cost?
Downsizing, Changing Habits
Possible effects Affected Not affected
No answer
Decreased your amount of driving 50 50 1
Made you reduce entertainment spending 45 54 1
Made you consider buying a more fuel efficient car 42 57 2
Made you use a more fuel efficient vehicle than the one you would normally
38 59 3
Increased your use of bicycles or walking 23 74 3
Made you change your vacation plans last summer 22 77 1
Increased your use of car-pools 21 76 3
Increased your use of public transportation 11 86 3
Made you consider moving closer to your work 11 85 4
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Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings Gas Prices: How does Public Perceive Causes?
Producers’ Profits and Wrong Policies to Blame
Factor Very important
Somewhat important
Not very important
No Ans
High profits by oil companies 68 19 12 1
High profits by oil exporting countries 60 24 13 3
Increased global demand for oil 53 25 19 2
The lack of policies encouraging the use of renewable energy and fuel efficient cars
51 28 18 4
Damage to oil production facilities in areas along the Gulf coast
47 30 19 5
Excessive regulation preventing drilling or refining within the United States
39 25 29 7
17
Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings Gas Prices: How does Public Perceive Solutions?
Renewal Energy, Hybrids and Transit Expansion Preferred
Policy Support Oppose NA
Tax incentives for the use of wind or solar power 78 16 6
Tax incentives for the purchase of hybrid/highly fuel efficient vehicles
74 23 3
Increasing bus and light rail service, even if it requires more subsidies from state government
70 26 4
Making it easier to develop nuclear power plants with the state of Maryland
43 47 10
Higher taxes on gasoline to encourage use of more fuel efficient vehicles
20 76 4
18
Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings Support for Various State and Local Policies
Yes to Another Bridge, Pollution Fee and Stem Cell Research
Policy Support Oppose No answer
An annual $60 fee dedicated only to correcting the impacts of storm water erosion and pollution in county streams and rivers
56 38 6
Putting a large horse training and show facility in the Gambrills/Crownsville area
44 43 13
Building a third bridge span across the Chesapeake Bay
63 31 5
Lengthening the school day in county schools, at a cost of about $30 million
29 60 11
State funding for embryonic stem cell research 58 34 8
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Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings President Bush’s Job Approval Slight Plurality Disapproves
Do you approve of the job George W. Bush is doing as President?
Approve 45% Disapprove 48% Unsure 7%Gallup (11-15-05) Approve 37% Disapprove 60% Unsure 3%
Those with ‘friend or family member currently serving in the military in Iraq or Afghanistan’ (39% of sample): Approve 48% Disapprove 45% Unsure 6% Without: Approve 42% Disapprove 51% Unsure 6%
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Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings President Bush’s Job Approval
Partisanship Rules!
Do you approve of the job George W. Bush is doing as President? Approve: Democrats 20% Republicans 77% Independents: 40%
21
Public Opinion, Terrorism, Confidence - National Bush Handling of Terrorism ONLY
Bush - Approval handling terrorism (only)
ApproveSaddam, 70%
83
92
67
5056
48
Iraq War 79%
35
10
25
Disapprove 43 4351
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
10/1
/01
12/1
/01
1/2/
02
3/2/
02
4/2/
02
5/2/
02
7/2/
02
9/2/
02
10/2
/05
12/2
/02
1/3/
03
2/3/
03
4/3/
03
9/4-
7/03
9/10
-13/
03
10/9
-13/
03
10/2
6-29
/03
12/1
8-21
/03
1/15
-18/
04
2/10
-11/
04
3/4-
7/04
4/15
-18/
04
5/20
-23/
04
6/17
-20/
04
7/22
-25/
04
12/4
/04
1/5/
05
3/5/
05
4/5/
05
6/2-
5/05
8/25
-28/
05
9/8-
11/0
5
10/3
0 -
11/2
/05
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Public Opinion, Terrorism, Confidence - National
Bush - % approving handling of war in Iraq
Bush - Approve handling of Iraq
65
53 54
46 4744
48
4245
50
45 44
35
41
3436
33
29
3936
40
47 4649
45
51 50
43
4750 51
57
61 6062
5 68
6 6 7 7 7 7 75
8 7 86 5
85 5 4 5 5
Approve, 58%
30
44
5351
6965
54
Disapprove, 39%
42
26
Unsure, 7%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
5/1-2/03
5/29-30/03
7/10-11/03
7/24-25/03
8/21-22/03
9/11-12/03
9/18-19/03
9/25-26/03
10/9-10/03
10/23-24/03
11/6-7/03
12/11-12/03
12/18-19/03
1/8-9/04
2/19-20/04
3/25-26/04
4/8-9/04
5/13-14/04
3/17-18/05
8/2-4/05
9/8-9/05
9/29-30/05
11/10-11/05
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Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings President Bush’s Job Approval
Best Policies by Party Registration
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Best Policy by Party
DemocratRepublicanIndependent
24
Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings President Bush’s Job Approval
Worst Policies by Party Registration
80
43
70
0
5
10
15
20
25
Worst Policy by Party
DemocratRepublicanIndependent
25
Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings Party by Ideology
Party by Ideology
40 0 0
1817
31
4
18
9
32
1915
25
42
4848
68
5053
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Overall Democrat Republican Independent None
None
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
26
Party by Age
9 9
6 5
2930
25
32 32
14
3634
39
43
25
22
13 14
50
33
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Overall Democrat Republican Independent None
18-29
30-44
45-59
60+
Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings Party by Age
27
Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings Party by Education
Party by Education
3 32
32
17
20
16
3
31 31
28
33
25 2426
25
20
2422
24
15
HS, 24
Some college, 33
Postgraduate, 43
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Overall Democrat Republican Independent None
no HS
HS
Some college
4 year degree
Postgraduate
28
Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings Party by Income
Party by Income
$30-$50, 26
$50-$75, 28
$50-$75, 30
$75-$100, 26
$75-$100, 32
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Overall Democrat Republican Independent None
Less than $30k
$30-$50
$50-$75
$75-$100
$100-$150
Over $150
29
Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings Party by Race
Party by Race
6
20
25 5
3 4
African-American, 13
White, 87White, 90White, 93White, 81White, 85
Other, 8
-5
5
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
Overall Democrat Republican Independent None
African-American
White
Hispanic/Latino
Asian
Other
30
Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings Party by Religion
Party by Religion
6 6
2
0
1514 14
23
13
9
5
16
30
28
33
24
76
5
109
No answer, 9
1819
Other Protestant, 34
Catholic, 30
Jewish, 3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Overall Democrat Republican Independent None
No answer
Non-practicing
Evangelical
Other Protestant
Catholic
Jewish
Other
31
Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings Party by Gender
Gender + Party
49
31
56
68
5551
69
44
32
45
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Overall Dems Reps Indep. No Party
Men
Women
32
Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings Democratss vs. Independents and Unregistered
Dem Base: 37% Indep. 11% Unregistered 12%
Ideology Liberals, Mods Mods Mods.
Age Middle age, retired Middle age, few retired
Younger, middle age, few retired
Education Somewhat educated Highly educated Not highly educated
Income Lower incomes Middle incomes Higher middle incomes
Employment Full-time in private, retired Full-time private & public
Full-time private
Race African-Americans and Caucasians
Caucasian only Caucasian, Latino, Asian
Religion Non-Evangelical Christians, non-practicing
Non-Evangelical Christians, non-practicing
All Christians, non-practicing
Marital Married, single, widowed Married, some single Married, some single
Gender 69% female 68% male 55% male
33
Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings Party by Issue Cluster
Lifestyle
Abortion - prochoice
Gay marriage -favors
Quality of life
Environment - favor over growth
Education
Economic Policy
Higher taxes
Anti-corporate
Pro-union
Anti-free trade
Foreign policy/homeland security
Pro-UN
Anti-Iraq war
Anti-Patriot Act
Safety Net
Social Security - protect
Health care for all
Attitudes toward minorities
Affirmative action
Pro-immigrant
Candidate Profile – importance of personal characteristics
(NOT issue related)
34
Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings Party by Issue Cluster
Party and Issue Clusters
0
5
10
15
20
25
Lifestyle Quality of life Economic Policy Safety Net Attitudes towardminorities
Foreignpolicy/homeland
security
Candidate focus
Base Dems
Independents
Unregistered
Republican
