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Digital technologies and their impact on industry productivity performance
Dean Parham and Peace Segarajasekeran15 September 2015
BCR’s digital productivity project
>Digitisation everywhere>We know ICTs had productivity-enhancing effects
in the 1990s– jointly with economic reforms
>Where are we now?
BCR’s Digital Productivity Project
>Productivity growth slower – Aust & RoW>Why?– Fewer ICT/digitally based opportunities?– Opportunities not being realised?– Gains being swamped by other factors?– Gains not being measured?
BCR’s Digital Productivity Project
>Primer released>Update growth accounting– Based on ABS national accounts data
>Case studies>Firm-level econometric analysis>Tackle the hard measurement issues
Growth accounting
LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
MFP growth
Capital deepening
Non-ICT capital
deepening
ICT capital deepening
Increasing the ratio of capital to labour
Product & process innovations
ICT• disruptive change• gen purpose tech
Previous work – PC (2004)
Labour productivity growth: 3.2 %paCapital deepening: 1.3 pp
ICT capital deepening 1.0 pp (30%)Hardware 0.6 ppSoftware 0.3 pp
Non-ICT capital deepening 0.4 ppMFP growth 1.8 pp
Over 1993-94 to 1998-99
Estimates not for quotation
Broad trends: net capital stocks
Jan-1980
Jan-1982
Jan-1984
Jan-1986
Jan-1988
Jan-1990
Jan-1992
Jan-1994
Jan-1996
Jan-1998
Jan-2000
Jan-2002
Jan-2004
Jan-2006
Jan-2008
Jan-2010
Jan-2012
Jan-2014
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
Hardware
Software
Electrical & elec-tronic equipment
Entire economy
Jan-1980 Jan-1985 Jan-1990 Jan-1995 Jan-2000 Jan-2005 Jan-20100
100020003000400050006000700080009000
Finance
Jan-1980 Jan-1985 Jan-1990 Jan-1995 Jan-2000 Jan-2005 Jan-20100
100020003000400050006000700080009000
10000
Info, media, tele-coms
Jan-1980 Jan-1985 Jan-1990 Jan-1995 Jan-2000 Jan-2005 Jan-20100
100020003000400050006000700080009000
10000
Wholesale
Jan-1980 Jan-1985 Jan-1990 Jan-1995 Jan-2000 Jan-2005 Jan-20100
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Retail
Jan-1980 Jan-1985 Jan-1990 Jan-1995 Jan-2000 Jan-2005 Jan-20100
100020003000400050006000700080009000
10000
Manufacturing
Broad trends
1993-94 to 2003-042003-04 to 2013-14
LP growth (%pa) 3.1 2.1
Capital deepening 1.3 2.2
ICT cap deep yy/2 ??̴
Non-ICT cap deepMFP growth 1.8
-0.1
Estimates not for quotation
Big differences across industries – ICT capital deepening
1990s 2000s
Manufacturing 0.7 0.6Wholesale 1.1 0.9/0.4 (late)Retail 0.6 0.6/0.2 (late)Info, media, comms 1.4 1.0Financial 1.7 1.5/0.7 (late)Prof, scien, tech 0.4 0.4
Estimates not for quotation
A new element: ICT and capital productivityNon-ICT capital productivity growth:Manufacturing:
-23%Wholesale
7% ??Retail
27%Info, media, telecoms 2%Finance
125%
Over 1989-90 to 2013-14
Estimates not for quotation
ICT and capital productivity
Assets:> Land>Buildings>Road vehicles> Inventories
(Very) tentative conclusions
> Growth in use of ICTs has continued in the 2000s> But slowed down after 2007-08
– especially hardware
> Greater use of software in the 2000s> Slower rate of ICT capital deepening on average> Effect of ICTs on productivity of other assets has been
overlooked– high correlation with ICT use in some industries/assets– no improvement in capital productivity in manufacturing