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Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016

Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016 · Conducted between February 9-24, 2016 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers) ... policies and politics

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Page 1: Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016 · Conducted between February 9-24, 2016 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers) ... policies and politics

Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016

Page 2: Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016 · Conducted between February 9-24, 2016 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers) ... policies and politics

American Institute of CPAs

Survey Background

Conducted between February 9-24, 2016

Quarterly Survey

CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers)

AICPA members in Business & Industry only

540 qualified responses

Page 3: Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016 · Conducted between February 9-24, 2016 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers) ... policies and politics

American Institute of CPAs

Survey HighlightsCPA Outlook Index declines eight points; significant concerns about economy impact all business indicators

• Overall index decreased from 69 to 63• US economy optimism index component declined seventeen points from 64 to 47;

only 28% of respondents express optimism, while 34% are now pessimistic• Fortunately organization optimism index declined only eight points to 62 and

expansion plan index declined six points to 64 Revenue, profit and spending indicators decrease, but remain positive

• Revenue index decreases six points to 68 and profits index decreases 7 points to 60• Hiring component continues to be soft at 59, easing another 8 points from Q4• Spending continues to be relatively strong, although easing along with other

measures Optimism recovers in retail and other core sectors; down in finance and insurance

• Retail trade optimism recovered to 39% in Q1 after falling off sharply from 65% to only 28% in Q4

• Manufacturing, construction, and real estate also recovered some ground lost in Q1, to 48%, 59%, and 52% optimistic, respectively

• Finance and Insurance on the other hand continued its decline, falling to only 41% optimistic in Q1, 2016, from 49% in Q4

Page 4: Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016 · Conducted between February 9-24, 2016 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers) ... policies and politics

American Institute of CPAs

Page 5: Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016 · Conducted between February 9-24, 2016 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers) ... policies and politics

American Institute of CPAs

CPA Outlook Index

The CPA Outlook Index is the composite of the following nine indicators at equal weights:

• U.S. Economy Optimism - Respondent optimism about the U.S. economy• Organization Optimism - Respondent optimism about prospects for their own organization• Expansion Plans - Respondent expectations of whether their business will expand over the

next 12 months • Revenue - Expectations for increases or decreases in revenue over the next 12 months• Profits - Expectations for increases or decreases in profits over the next 12 months• Employment - Expectations for increases or decreases in headcount over the next 12 months • IT Spending - Plans for IT spending over the next 12 months• Other Capital Spending - Plans for capital spending over the next 12 months• Training & Development - Plans for spending on employee training and development over the

next 12 months A reading above 50 indicates a generally positive outlook with increasing activity. A reading below 50 indicates a generally negative outlook with decreasing activity.

The CPA Outlook Index is a robust measure of sentiment about the U.S. economy that is supported by the unique insight and knowledge that CEOs, CFOs, Controllers, and other CPA executives have about the prospects for their own organizations, their expectations for revenues and profits, and their plans for spending and employment.

Page 6: Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016 · Conducted between February 9-24, 2016 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers) ... policies and politics

American Institute of CPAs

CPA Outlook Index (CPAOI)

1Q112Q113Q114Q111Q122Q123Q124Q121Q132Q133Q134Q131Q142Q143Q144Q141Q152Q153Q154Q151Q16CPA Outlook

Index 69 66 58 64 69 67 63 59 66 69 69 69 70 72 75 78 74 72 71 69 63

6966

58

6469 67

6359

6669 69 69 70 72

7578

74 72 71 69

63CPA Outlook Index - 63

Page 7: Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016 · Conducted between February 9-24, 2016 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers) ... policies and politics

American Institute of CPAs

CPA Outlook Index Component Indicators

Component 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 ∆Q to Q ∆Y to Y

U.S. Economic Optimism 80 68 67 64 47 17 33

Organization Optimism 76 73 73 70 63 07 13

Expansion Plans 74 72 72 70 64 06 10

Revenue 78 75 76 74 68 06 10

Profits 72 69 71 67 60 07 12

Employment 68 67 66 67 59 08 09

IT Spending 76 77 77 77 73 04 03

Other Capital Spending 71 72 72 72 67 05 04

Training & Development 70 71 69 68 67 01 03

Total CPAOI 74 72 71 69 63 06 11

Page 8: Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016 · Conducted between February 9-24, 2016 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers) ... policies and politics

American Institute of CPAs

CPA Outlook Index (CPAOI) vs. GDP

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16CPA Outlook

Index 70 72 75 78 74 72 71 69 63

Changein GDP -2.10% 4.60% 3.90% 2.20% 0.60% 3.90% 2.0% 1.0%

-10.00%

-8.00%

-6.00%

-4.00%

-2.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

GDP Growth

CPA Outlook Index

Page 9: Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016 · Conducted between February 9-24, 2016 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers) ... policies and politics

American Institute of CPAs

Page 10: Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016 · Conducted between February 9-24, 2016 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers) ... policies and politics

American Institute of CPAs

Outlook for the U.S. and OrganizationsOptimism for the U.S. Economy plummets

• The percentage of executives optimistic about the US Economy declined from 45% in Q4 to only 28% in Q1, the lowest level since a decline in the second half of 2012; at 34% pessimism is also higher than any quarter since that time

• Global turbulence and China, low oil and commodity prices, along with domestic policies and politics were cited as the primary reasons for those with pessimistic views

Organizational optimism eases, but not as dramatically• Optimism about own company prospects fell ten points from 53% to 44%, dropping

below 50% for the first time since a dip in the second half of 2012 • The percentage of companies expecting their business to expand also fell off to 52%,

also the lowest point since 4Q 2012 • The percentage of companies expecting their businesses to contract also increased in

Q1 to 25%, the highest level since Q3 2009 when 30% of companies anticipated a decline in their business

Concern about deflation vs. inflation flips • Only 14% are concerned about inflation, dropping from 23% at Q4, 2015• Conversely, now 22% are concerned about deflation, double the 11% in Q4, 2015• Labor costs continued as the most pressing, now the top concern for 44% of

respondents, as raw material and energy cost concerns both decline • Concern about interest rates eased another 3 points to19%

Page 11: Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016 · Conducted between February 9-24, 2016 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers) ... policies and politics

American Institute of CPAs

Optimism & ExpansionUS, Organization, Expansion

1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16US 48% 33% 9% 19% 43% 34% 22% 21% 32% 49% 44% 38% 49% 51% 52% 64% 68% 52% 48% 45% 28%Organization 57% 54% 41% 45% 55% 54% 44% 41% 50% 57% 55% 57% 59% 61% 65% 67% 63% 58% 59% 53% 44%Expansion 66% 61% 53% 59% 61% 61% 56% 50% 58% 62% 62% 62% 63% 64% 68% 71% 64% 61% 60% 57% 52%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Page 12: Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016 · Conducted between February 9-24, 2016 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers) ... policies and politics

American Institute of CPAs

For your business, are you more concerned about inflation or deflation?

55%

61%

38%43%

37%33% 32% 31%

36%30%

35%31% 29%

32%38%

27%23% 23% 25%

23%

14%5% 4%

13% 11%6%

9% 10% 9%6% 7% 7% 7% 8% 6% 5%

10% 12% 10% 10% 11%

22%

1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q160%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Inflation or Deflation?

Inflation Deflation

For your business, over the next 6 months, are you more concerned about the possibility of …?

Page 13: Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016 · Conducted between February 9-24, 2016 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers) ... policies and politics

American Institute of CPAs

Food costs Energycosts

Raw materialcosts Labor costs Interest

rates Other

1Q15 3% 11% 20% 36% 24% 6%2Q15 3% 16% 28% 26% 21% 6%3Q15 4% 11% 21% 36% 24% 5%4Q15 2% 12% 23% 37% 22% 5%1Q16 3% 6% 19% 44% 19% 9%

3%

11%

20%

36%

24%

6%

3%

16%

28% 26%

21%

6%4%

11%

21%

36%

24%

5%2%

12%

23%

37%

22%

5%3%

6%

19%

44%

19%

9%

Inflationary Factor Representing the Most Significant Risk to your Business

Inflationary Risks and Costs

Page 14: Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016 · Conducted between February 9-24, 2016 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers) ... policies and politics

American Institute of CPAs

Page 15: Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016 · Conducted between February 9-24, 2016 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers) ... policies and politics

American Institute of CPAs

Key Performance IndicatorsOutlooks for revenue and profits both fall off

• Expected revenue increase declines from 2.9% to 1.7%; expected profit increase also declines from 2.0% to 0.7%

Headcount plans and salary and benefit costs ease slightly;healthcare costs remained constant

• Headcounts are now expected to increase by only 0.5% over the next twelve months, easing another half a point this quarter from the 1.0% projected in Q4

• Expected increases in salary and benefit costs also eased four tenths to 1.4% in Q1• Anticipated healthcare cost remained constant at 5.4%• Expected “other input prices” eased six tenths from 2.1% in Q4 to 1.5% in Q1;

however, the expected ability to increase “prices charged” also eased by nearly half, from an expected increase of 1.5% in Q4 to only 0.8%

Key spending plans ease slightly • Increased spending for IT continues to be the strongest category, but declined

slightly from 2.8% in Q4 to 2.3% in Q1 • Other capital spending plans also eased from 2.4% in Q4 to 1.5% in Q1• Expected increase in training spending declined from 1.4% in Q4 to 1.1% in Q1• Plans for marketing spending eased two tenths to 1.4%; R&D spending also gave up

three tenths, falling to 0.9%

Page 16: Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016 · Conducted between February 9-24, 2016 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers) ... policies and politics

American Institute of CPAs

Key Performance IndicatorsExpected Growth in Revenue and Profits

1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16Revenue 3.7% 3.4% 2.4% 2.8% 3.5% 3.1% 2.6% 2.1% 3.0% 3.1% 3.3% 3.6% 3.6% 3.8% 4.4% 4.7% 3.6% 3.2% 3.3% 2.9% 1.7%Profit 2.9% 2.5% 1.7% 2.4% 2.9% 2.6% 2.2% 1.4% 2.1% 2.4% 2.5% 2.7% 2.9% 2.9% 3.6% 3.9% 2.8% 2.4% 2.6% 2.0% 0.7%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

Thinking about the coming 12 months, please comment on the probable change for your organization for …

Page 17: Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016 · Conducted between February 9-24, 2016 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers) ... policies and politics

American Institute of CPAs

Employees, Salary & Benefits and Healthcare Costs

1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16Employees 1.5% 1.1% 0.9% 1.2% 1.5% 1.1% 0.8% 0.5% 1.1% 1.0% 1.3% 1.2% 1.5% 1.3% 1.8% 2.1% 1.6% 1.5% 1.3% 1.0% 0.5%Salary & Benefits 2.0% 2.2% 1.9% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 2.2% 2.2% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.4% 2.5% 2.0% 2.1% 2.0% 1.8% 1.4%Healthcare 6.7% 6.6% 6.4% 6.0% 6.2% 6.3% 6.4% 6.4% 6.3% 6.7% 6.8% 6.6% 6.2% 5.7% 6.6% 5.9% 5.8% 5.8% 5.8% 5.4% 5.4%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

Thinking about the coming 12 months, please comment on the probable change for your organization …

Page 18: Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016 · Conducted between February 9-24, 2016 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers) ... policies and politics

American Institute of CPAs

Pricing & Other CostsAverage Change Expected

1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16Prices Charged 1.4% 1.5% 1.2% 1.2% 1.4% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 1.3% 1.1% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.4% 1.4% 1.6% 1.5% 0.8%Input Prices 2.6% 2.8% 2.3% 2.1% 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 1.8% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 2.4% 2.3% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.2% 2.1% 1.5%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

Thinking about the coming 12 months, please comment on the probable change for your organization …

Page 19: Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016 · Conducted between February 9-24, 2016 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers) ... policies and politics

American Institute of CPAs

Spending PlansIT, Other Capital & Training

1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16IT 2.3% 2.6% 2.0% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 2.4% 2.1% 2.7% 2.8% 2.7% 2.9% 3.2% 3.1% 3.3% 3.3% 3.1% 3.1% 3.0% 2.8% 2.3%Other Capital 2.1% 2.0% 1.4% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 1.7% 1.3% 1.9% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.3% 2.4% 2.9% 3.2% 2.4% 2.4% 2.5% 2.4% 1.5%Training 1.3% 1.1% 0.5% 1.2% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.7% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.5% 1.7% 1.8% 2.0% 2.2% 1.6% 1.8% 1.4% 1.4% 1.1%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

Thinking about the coming 12 months, please comment on the probable change for your organization for …

Page 20: Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016 · Conducted between February 9-24, 2016 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers) ... policies and politics

American Institute of CPAs

Spending PlansMarketing & R&D

1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16Marketing 1.6% 1.5% 1.1% 1.8% 1.8% 1.5% 1.1% 1.0% 1.5% 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.8% 1.6% 1.8% 1.6% 1.6% 1.4%R&D 1.5% 1.0% 0.8% 0.9% 1.2% 1.0% 0.6% 0.6% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% 1.7% 1.2% 0.9%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

Thinking about the coming 12 months, please comment on the probable change for your organization for …

Page 21: Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016 · Conducted between February 9-24, 2016 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers) ... policies and politics

American Institute of CPAs

Page 22: Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016 · Conducted between February 9-24, 2016 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers) ... policies and politics

American Institute of CPAs

Hiring Plans

Expectations for business decline also impact hiring While 53% of all companies say they have the appropriate number of employees, which is consistent with Q4, 2015• The number of companies now saying they have an excess of

employees increased another three points from 10% to 13%

• Less than a third (31%) now have too few employees; - The percentage of companies with too few employees who are

reluctant to hire eased from 17% in Q4, 2015 to 16% in Q1, 2016- However, those with too few employees that are planning to hire

declined from 18% to 15%

Page 23: Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016 · Conducted between February 9-24, 2016 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers) ... policies and politics

American Institute of CPAs

Overall staff situation relative to your needs

We have an excessnumber ofemployees

We haveapproximately the

appropriate numberof employees

We have too fewemployees, but arehesitating to hire

We have too fewemployees and are

planning to hireOther

1Q15 10% 52% 15% 21% 2%2Q15 9% 55% 14% 21% 1%3Q15 8% 52% 20% 18% 2%4Q15 10% 53% 17% 18% 2%1Q16 13% 53% 16% 15% 3%

10%

52%

15%

21%

2%

9%

55%

14%

21%

1%

8%

52%

20%18%

2%

10%

53%

17% 18%

2%

13%

53%

16% 15%

3%

Given current conditions, how would you characterize your overall staffing situation relative to your needs (i.e., do you have excess capacity or are employees stretched)?

Page 24: Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016 · Conducted between February 9-24, 2016 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers) ... policies and politics

American Institute of CPAs

Page 25: Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016 · Conducted between February 9-24, 2016 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers) ... policies and politics

American Institute of CPAs

Top Challenges Facing OrganizationsDomestic economic conditions now ranks as the top challenge that organizations are facing, followed by regulatory requirements which had topped the list for several quarters.

Stagnant/declining markets moved into the third slot from #5, followed by domestic competition which slipped one notch

Availability of skilled personnel continues to be a concern, but did ease another slot this quarter from #4 to #5, followed by employee and benefits costs which maintained its #6 ranking

Domestic political leadership bounced back from #10 to #7

Developing new products/services/markets also recovered from # 9 to #8

Staff turnover, which has not been a major challenge for some time, makes an appearance at the #9 slot

Financing (access, cost of capital) returned to the “top ten” last quarter, but eased from the #8 slot to #10 in Q1

Page 26: Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016 · Conducted between February 9-24, 2016 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers) ... policies and politics

American Institute of CPAs

Top Challenges for Organizations Please indicate the top three challenges for your organization

1Q 15 2Q 15 3Q 15 4Q 15 1Q16

1 Regulatory requirements/changes

Regulatory requirements/changes

Regulatory requirements/changes

Regulatory requirements/changes

Domestic economic conditions

2 Domestic competition Employee and benefits costs Employee and benefits costs Domestic economic conditions

Regulatory requirements/changes

3 Employee and benefits costs

Domestic economic conditions

Availability of skilled personnel Domestic competition Stagnant/declining markets

4 Availability of skilled personnel

Availability of skilled personnel

Domestic economic conditions

Availability of skilled personnel Domestic competition

5 Domestic economic conditions Domestic competition Domestic competition Stagnant/declining markets Availability of skilled

personnel

6 Domestic political leadership Developing new products/services/markets Stagnant/declining markets Employee and benefits costs Employee and benefits costs

7 Developing new products/services/markets Domestic political leadership Developing new

products/services/markets Global economic conditions Domestic political leadership

8 Changing customer preferences

Materials/supplies/ equipment costs

Changing customer preferences

Financing (access/cost of capital)

Developing new products/services/markets

9 Stagnant/declining markets Financing (access/cost of capital) Domestic political leadership Developing new

products/services/markets Staff Turnover

10 Materials/supplies/ equipment costs

Changing customer preferences Global economic conditions Domestic political leadership Financing (access/cost of

capital)

Page 27: Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016 · Conducted between February 9-24, 2016 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers) ... policies and politics

American Institute of CPAs

Page 28: Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016 · Conducted between February 9-24, 2016 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers) ... policies and politics

American Institute of CPAs

Industry, Region and Business-size Outlook - 1 of 2

Optimism recovers somewhat in retail and other core sectors; drops in finance and natural resource sectors

• Retail trade optimism recovered to 39% in Q1 after falling off sharply from 65% to only 28% in Q4, and topping the charts at 85% optimistic in Q2, 2015. Retail hiring also improved to a projected rate of 1.2%, up from only 0.7% in Q4, 2015

• Wholesale trade optimism also recovered somewhat from 23% in Q4 to 42% in Q1

• Manufacturing regained some lost ground, improving from 41% optimistic in Q4 to 48% in Q1; however, manufacturing hiring projections continue to be soft, improving only slightly from 0.9% in Q4 to 1.1% for the coming twelve months

• Technology optimism remained essentially flat, improving only a point from Q4 to 53% optimistic Q1; technology hiring also softened from 2.0% to 1.4%

• Construction optimism also rebounded in Q1 to 59% after falling from 64% in Q3, to 51% in Q4, 2015. However, the expected increase in construction headcount fell back to only 1.1% in Q1, after improving in Q4 to 2.5%

• Real Estate optimism also improved in Q1 to 52% after declining sharply in Q4

• Finance and Insurance on the other hand continued its decline, falling from 49% in Q4, 2015 to 41% optimistic in Q1, 2016

Page 29: Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016 · Conducted between February 9-24, 2016 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers) ... policies and politics

American Institute of CPAs

Industry, Region and Business-size Outlook - 2 of 2

Other Sectors• Healthcare-other rebounded from 44% in Q4 to 67% in Q1 • Healthcare providers also rebounded in Q1 to 52% optimistic after falling sharply

to only 38% optimistic in Q4

Optimism stable in West, declines across other regions • West regains its place as most optimistic region, maintaining at 55%• Each of other regions drop 10%, Northeast from 58% to 48%, Midwest from 55%

to 45%, and South from 48% to 38%Expansion plans fall for all but the $10 to < $100 million companies

• The number of companies with revenues < $10 million having expansion plans declined from 52% in Q4 to 44% in Q1

• The $10-$100 million range of companies improved from 57% to 59%• The $100 billion to $1 billion range of companies eased from 57% in Q4 to 50%

and the percentage of companies with revenues > $1 billion having expansion plans fell off 10 points to only 49%

• This is the first time since before 2010 when expansion plans were first broken out by size that the expansion plans have fallen to 50% or lower for either segment of larger companies

Page 30: Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016 · Conducted between February 9-24, 2016 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers) ... policies and politics

American Institute of CPAs

Organization Optimism by Industry

59% 62% 67% 66% 69%

85%

65%

28%39%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16

Retail Trade

48% 49%61% 66%

54%65%

54%

23%

42%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16

Wholesale Trade

66% 62%72% 71%

63%55% 53%

41%48%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16

Manufacturing80%

72%

58%50%

80%

60%67%

52% 53%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16

Technology

Page 31: Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016 · Conducted between February 9-24, 2016 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers) ... policies and politics

American Institute of CPAs

Organization Optimism by Industry

62% 64%76%

68% 72%64% 68%

60%46%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16

Professional Service

71%64% 61%

71% 66%74%

65%

49%41%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16

Finance & Insurance

64% 69% 70%64% 68% 65% 69%

48% 52%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16

Real Estate 73% 69% 69%

78% 83%

64% 64%51%

59%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16

Construction

Page 32: Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016 · Conducted between February 9-24, 2016 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers) ... policies and politics

American Institute of CPAs

Organization Optimism by Industry

43%55%

71% 75%

56%50%

67%

44%

67%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16

Health Care Other

34%48% 50%

65%

49% 47%

69%

38%52%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16

Health Care Provider

Page 33: Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016 · Conducted between February 9-24, 2016 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers) ... policies and politics

American Institute of CPAs

Expected Employment Change by Industry

Thinking about the coming 12 months, please comment on the probable change for your organization for Number of Employees

-5.0%

0.2%

0.7%

0.7%

0.9%

1.1%

1.1%

1.1%

1.1%

1.2%

1.4%

2.0%

-2.6%

2.7%

2.0%

1.4%

1.5%

2.5%

1.6%

0.9%

2.1%

0.7%

2.0%

1.7%

-6.0% -5.0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%

Professional Services

Trans & Distribution

Banking

Real Estate Property

Construction

Not for Profit

Manufacturing

Finance and Insurance

Retail Trade

Technology

Healthcare Provider

Q4

Q1

Mining and Natural Resources

Page 34: Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016 · Conducted between February 9-24, 2016 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers) ... policies and politics

American Institute of CPAs

Organization Optimismby Region

1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16South 60% 56% 54% 48% 38%Midwest 65% 60% 61% 55% 45%Northeast 68% 59% 62% 58% 48%West 67% 57% 63% 55% 55%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Please select the rating that best describes your view for the economic outlook for your own organization for the next 12 months.

Page 35: Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016 · Conducted between February 9-24, 2016 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers) ... policies and politics

American Institute of CPAs

Expansion Plans by Business Size

1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16< $10 million 61% 53% 50% 54% 55% 58% 50% 44% 52% 53% 56% 56% 56% 59% 59% 65% 59% 47% 61% 52% 44%$10 to <$100 million 65% 59% 53% 56% 60% 59% 58% 52% 58% 63% 61% 63% 62% 65% 69% 72% 63% 66% 62% 57% 59%$100 million to <$1 billion 68% 69% 57% 62% 66% 66% 56% 53% 63% 63% 64% 62% 71% 65% 73% 72% 67% 65% 60% 57% 50%> $1 billion 77% 72% 60% 69% 65% 62% 54% 53% 68% 68% 68% 64% 69% 66% 71% 75% 77% 53% 56% 59% 49%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

45% of all businesses expect to expand a little in the next twelve months 7% expect to expand a lot.

42% expect to contract a little or stay the same Only 6% expect to contract a lot

Please indicate whether you expect your business to expand or contract over the next 12 months

Page 36: Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016 · Conducted between February 9-24, 2016 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers) ... policies and politics

American Institute of CPAs

Businesses in the $100 to <$1 billion range are most likely to have excess employees

We have an excessnumber ofemployees

We haveapproximately the

appropriate numberof employees

We have too fewemployees, but arehesitating to hire

We have too fewemployees and are

planning to hireOther

< $10 million 12% 59% 15% 11% 3%$10 to <$100 million 11% 50% 18% 17% 4%$100 million to <$1 billion 21% 46% 14% 17% 1%> $1 billion 15% 55% 15% 15% 0%

12%

59%

15%11%

3%

11%

50%

18% 17%

4%

21%

46%

14%17%

1%

15%

55%

15% 15%

0%

Given current conditions, how would you characterize your overall staffing situation relative to your needs (i.e., do you have excess capacity or are employees stretched)?

Page 37: Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016 · Conducted between February 9-24, 2016 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers) ... policies and politics

American Institute of CPAs

Page 38: Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016 · Conducted between February 9-24, 2016 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers) ... policies and politics

American Institute of CPAs

Presidential Election – A Factor in Business Planning?

Has or will the possible outcomes of the upcoming 2016 presidential election be a consideration or factor in your company’s business planning, budgeting or forecasting for the next fiscal year?

36%

26%

23%

15%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

NOT A FACTOR

SLIGHT OR SOMEWHAT A FACTOR

MODERATE FACTOR

SIGNIFICANT FACTOR

Page 39: Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016 · Conducted between February 9-24, 2016 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers) ... policies and politics

American Institute of CPAs

Presidential Election –Job Creation & Hiring

In anticipation of the election, what are your company’s most likely actions concerning job creation and hiring?

1%

5%

13%

25%

56%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

INCREASE HIRING BEFORE THE ELECTION

REDUCE NEW HIRING UNTIL AFTER THE ELECTION

DEFER HIRING UNTIL AFTER THE ELECTION

CONTINUE TO HIRE AT CURRENT PACE

ELECTION IS NOT A FACTOR IN HIRING

Page 40: Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016 · Conducted between February 9-24, 2016 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers) ... policies and politics

American Institute of CPAs

Presidential Election –Expansion Plans

In anticipation of the election, what are your company’s most likely actions concerning capital expenditures and business expansion, including borrowing and financing?

2%

8%

10%

27%

53%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

INCREASE CAPITAL EXPENDITURES AND BUSINESS EXPANSION SPENDING BEFORE THE ELECTION

REDUCE CAPITAL EXPENDITURES AND BUSINESS EXPANSION SPENDING UNTIL AFTER THE ELECTION

DEFER CAPITAL EXPENDITURES AND BUSINESS EXPANSION SPENDING UNTIL AFTER THE ELECTION

CONTINUE TO SPEND ON CAPITAL EXPENDITURES AND BUSINESS EXPANSION AT CURRENT PACE

ELECTION IS NOT A FACTOR IN CAPITAL EXPENDITURES AND BUSINESS EXPANSION SPENDING

Page 41: Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016 · Conducted between February 9-24, 2016 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers) ... policies and politics

American Institute of CPAs

Greatest Impact on Planning and Forecasting

What item(s) are likely to have the greatest impact on your company’s business planning, budgeting or forecasting for the next fiscal year? (Top 3)

Increasing or weakening general economic conditions

Outlook for your company’s industry or sector

Interest rates and borrowing costs

Strength of US dollar

Potential 2016 election outcomes

Volatility in equity markets

Other ->

Page 42: Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016 · Conducted between February 9-24, 2016 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers) ... policies and politics

American Institute of CPAs

Other Impacts on Planning and Forecasting

Oth

er Im

pact

s Availability of business opportunitiesGetting new products to marketSupplier issuesForeign parent companyMinimum wage pressureGas prices, commodity costsAccess to capital, liquidityInternal changesExecution of new product developmentMajor customers shifting buying methodsCybersecurityVolatility in property marketsSales strategy and manufacturing efficiency

Page 43: Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016 · Conducted between February 9-24, 2016 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers) ... policies and politics

American Institute of CPAs

Page 44: Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016 · Conducted between February 9-24, 2016 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers) ... policies and politics

American Institute of CPAs

Demographics

21%

33%14%

14%

4%4%

10%

Size of Organization

$0 to under $10 million

$10 million to under $50 million

$50 million to under $100 million

$100 million to under $250 million

$250 million to under $500 million

$500 million to under $1 billion

$1 billion or more

14%

71%

1% 13%

1%

Type of Organization

Publicly Listed Company

Privately Owned Entity

Government

Not for Profit

Other

12% 2%

6%

46%3%

23%

2% 2%

4%

Position

CEO/PresidentCOOVPCFOCAO/CAECIOControllerDirectorAccounting, Audit, Tax or Technology ManagerOther

Page 45: Detailed Survey Results — 1Q 2016 · Conducted between February 9-24, 2016 Quarterly Survey CPA decision makers (primarily CFOs, CEOs and Controllers) ... policies and politics

For additional information contact:

Kenneth W. Witt, CPA, CGMA Lead Technical Manager, Management Accounting

[email protected]

Cary JonesAssociate Manager

Business, Industry & Government Team [email protected]