Democratization:Democratization:What causes it?What causes it?

What is democratization?What is democratization?

3 basic components:3 basic components:– 1. ending an 1. ending an

authoritarian regime; authoritarian regime; – 2- installing a 2- installing a

democratic regime; democratic regime; – 3- consolidating a 3- consolidating a

democratic regimedemocratic regime

Different causes Different causes may be responsible may be responsible for each of these for each of these developments.developments.

(Samuel Huntington)(Samuel Huntington)

End of an authoritarian regime: capture of Saddam Hussein, Dec. 2003.

VARIOUS THEORIES OF THE CAUSES OF DEMOCRATIZATION: A Partial List

• High overall level of economic wealth

• Relatively equal distribution of wealth

• A market economy• Economic

development and social modernization

More theories on the causes of More theories on the causes of democratizationdemocratization

* A feudal aristocracy at some point in the history of the society

* Absence of feudalism in the society

* A strong bourgeoisie* High levels of literacy

and education* Protestantism* Low levels of civil

violence* Low levels of political

polarizationDoes a Protestant ethic lead to democracy? Martin Luther preaching.

(picture: http://web.uvic.ca/shakespeare/Library/SLT/ideas/protestantism.html)

Yet more theories on the causes of Yet more theories on the causes of democratizationdemocratization

* Political leaders committed to democracy

* Experience as a British colony

* Traditions of tolerance and compromise

* Occupation by a pro-democratic foreign power

*Communal homogeneity Experience as a British colony: “The

British Colossus,” (1892) depicting British expansionist Cecil Rhodes straddling Britain’s African “possessions”.

Picture:http://www.madeira-edu.pt/estabensino/ebssantana/comenius/simbols_of_colonialism.htm

3 “waves” of 3 “waves” of democratizationdemocratization

1. 1818-1926: France, Britain, 1. 1818-1926: France, Britain, U.S., etc.U.S., etc.

2- 1943-1965: West Germany, 2- 1943-1965: West Germany, Italy, Austria, Japan, Korea, Italy, Austria, Japan, Korea, Columbia, Venezuela, etc.Columbia, Venezuela, etc.

3. 1974-1995 (?): Portugal, 3. 1974-1995 (?): Portugal, Greece, Turkey (again), Brazil, Greece, Turkey (again), Brazil, former East Bloc countriesformer East Bloc countries

The “Third Wave:” What The “Third Wave:” What and Who was the 3and Who was the 3rdrd wave? wave?

about 30 countries with auth systems about 30 countries with auth systems shifted to democratic political systems in shifted to democratic political systems in the 1970s and 1980sthe 1970s and 1980s

they were: they were: * diverse – one-party systems, military * diverse – one-party systems, military regimes, personal dictatorships, racial regimes, personal dictatorships, racial oligarchy (S. Africa)oligarchy (S. Africa)*many were “second try” democracies – *many were “second try” democracies – leaders had learned from previously leaders had learned from previously unsuccessful experiences and tried again unsuccessful experiences and tried again – Spain, Portugal, Greece, Poland– Spain, Portugal, Greece, Poland* many emerged after 1989 with fall of * many emerged after 1989 with fall of the USSRthe USSR

Explaining the Third Wave: Explaining the Third Wave: key variableskey variables

deepening legitimacy problems of authoritarian deepening legitimacy problems of authoritarian systems in a world where democratic norms systems in a world where democratic norms becoming increasingly acceptedbecoming increasingly accepted

global economic growth global economic growth expanded middle class expanded middle class

transformation of churches (especially the Catholic transformation of churches (especially the Catholic Church): from being a defender of the status quo to Church): from being a defender of the status quo to opponents of authoritarianismopponents of authoritarianism

changes in the policies of external actors (i.e. new changes in the policies of external actors (i.e. new attitude of the EEC/EU, shift in U.S. policies)attitude of the EEC/EU, shift in U.S. policies)

““snowball” effectssnowball” effects (Samuel Huntington)(Samuel Huntington)

More general explanations: More general explanations: Democratic CorrelatesDemocratic Correlates

Encouraging democracy? Council of Europe flags

1.1. Historical sequences: Historical sequences: Contestation, then inclusion Contestation, then inclusion MUTUAL SECURITY MUTUAL SECURITY

Problem: it is Problem: it is very difficult very difficult today to today to legitimately legitimately deny deny contestationcontestation

Can’t wait for democracy: an Otpor baby in Serbia

2. Growing wealth that occurs in such a way 2. Growing wealth that occurs in such a way as to promote the growth of an educated as to promote the growth of an educated

middle classmiddle class

Remember! ECONOMICS ALONE IS NOT ENOUGH TO DETERMINE Remember! ECONOMICS ALONE IS NOT ENOUGH TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT A PLACE BECOMES DEMOCRATIC.WHETHER OR NOT A PLACE BECOMES DEMOCRATIC.

Most wealthy countries ARE democratic.Most wealthy countries ARE democratic. Most democratic countries are wealthy -- India a dramatic exception. Most democratic countries are wealthy -- India a dramatic exception.

Examples of countries with high incomes in the 1970s that were NOT Examples of countries with high incomes in the 1970s that were NOT

democratic:democratic:– the USSR the USSR – BulgariaBulgaria– Poland Poland – Hungary, Spain, and PortugalHungary, Spain, and Portugal– S.Arabia, Libya, Kuwait had per capita incomes of over $4,000 in the mid S.Arabia, Libya, Kuwait had per capita incomes of over $4,000 in the mid

1970s, but they didn’t become democratic 1970s, but they didn’t become democratic – Iraq, Iran, and Singapore -- in the 1980s had high income and low Iraq, Iran, and Singapore -- in the 1980s had high income and low

democracy.democracy.

Why would higher incomes not necessarily Why would higher incomes not necessarily bring democracy?bring democracy?

3. Pro-democratic 3. Pro-democratic external influencesexternal influences

Example: the European Example: the European UnionUnion

Words of Advice for would-Words of Advice for would-be democratizers: be democratizers:

mobilize large-scale NON-violent opposition (the evidence mobilize large-scale NON-violent opposition (the evidence suggests that guerrilla movements and revolutions are NOT suggests that guerrilla movements and revolutions are NOT good ways to bring about democracy, although they may good ways to bring about democracy, although they may secure liberation)secure liberation)

seek support from the center, and if necessary, the seek support from the center, and if necessary, the conservative rightconservative right

restrain the left and keep them from dominating the restrain the left and keep them from dominating the agenda of the movementagenda of the movement

woo sections of the militarywoo sections of the military seek sympathetic support from the media and other seek sympathetic support from the media and other

governments, especially the U.S. governments, especially the U.S. Once in power, secure safeguards for the rights of the Once in power, secure safeguards for the rights of the

oppositionopposition

(Myron Weiner, advice based on large-scale analysis)

SEVERAL FACTORS THAT CAN BUT DO SEVERAL FACTORS THAT CAN BUT DO NOT NECESSARILY IMPEDE NOT NECESSARILY IMPEDE

DEMOCRATIZATIONDEMOCRATIZATION

1 – foreign intervention or support for an authoritarian regime1 – foreign intervention or support for an authoritarian regime

Examples: Iran, ChileExamples: Iran, Chile

2- a highly skewed income2- a highly skewed income

3- significant ethnic diversity with a recent history of conflict; 3- significant ethnic diversity with a recent history of conflict; the presence of subcultures the presence of subcultures

– Note: Democracy Note: Democracy doesdoes exist in countries with highly exist in countries with highly diverse populations – i.e. Canada, the U.S. diverse populations – i.e. Canada, the U.S.

– Another note: Problems tend to be worse when there are Another note: Problems tend to be worse when there are two main groups, one majority and the other minority. two main groups, one majority and the other minority. Multi-cultural countries tend to have fewer problems. Multi-cultural countries tend to have fewer problems.