The Xiamen Environmental Protests. An Empirical Investigation of Successful Civil Unrest under an

Authoritarian Regime Andreas Diekmann and Zhijia ZhouETH Zurich and Xiamen University

Xiamen, „China‘s Cleanest

City“

Xiamen City and Gulangyu island, Foto: Diekmann

16th Social Dilemma Conference,Hong Kong, June 22-25

Steel mills in Guandong province, Guardian, 31.7.2009

Beijing, 2005wikimedia commons

►SEPA (State environmental protection agency, China): 400‘000 premature deaths per year due to air pollution

►Taiwanese investor plannedto build a large paraxylene (PX)plant in Haicang district of Xiamen► Anti PX protests were largestprotests in China sinceTiananmen massacre in 1989.

Xiamen Protests –Activities for a collective good

• SEPA and „National Development and Reform commission“ agree to PX project• Local government and party elite strongly support the project.• March 2007: Zhao Yufen, Professor of Chemistry at Xiamen University

and member of the „Chinese People Political Consultation Conference“ (CPPCC) submitted a critical comment about the PX project. 105 members of the CPPCC signed the comment.

• Journalist Lian Yue published several online-article about the plant.• Local media ignore the criticism.• A SMS warning of the PX project was disseminated to thousands of

Xiamen citizen.• June 1st and 2nd, 2007, demonstrations in Xiamen with 10‘000 to more

than 20‘000 participants.• Protests were peaceful and in the end successfull (at least for Xiamen

citizen).

Zhao Yufen

Zhao Dagong, THE XIAMEN DEMONSTRATIONS ANDGROWING CIVIL CONSCIOUSNESS, China rights Forum 3/2007

„Before the demonstration,more than one million Xiamencitizens sent out cell-phone text messages opposingthe PX chemical factory project. All contained thesame warning:“

“Taiwanese businessman Chen Yuhao’sXianglu Group has invested in a joint venture project tobuild a chemical factory to manufacture paraxylene(PX) in Haicang District.Making this deadly poison[here] would be like dropping an atomic bomb on XiamenIsland. It wouldmean that in the future, the peopleof Xiamen would live with leukemia and deformedchildren.”

BLOGSXiamen demonstration today - live reporting on blogs and video sites

Posted by Jeremy Goldkorn on Friday, June 1, 2007 at 11:33 AM

http://www.danwei.org/1137db5ccf3.jpg

Chinese media, advertising, and urban life

Xiamen, June 1st, 2007

Problem of the political system in China:The lack of institutions to regulate political and citizens‘ conflicts „bottom up“.

“Some forms of protests are legal such as the submission of petitions to authorities, but many kinds of civil unrest, for example demonstrations in the streets or peasant revolts, are illegal by Chinese laws and participants often risk serious punishment. In the decade 1994 to 2004, the years before the Xiamen protests, the annual number of “mass incidents” involving 100 and more protesters has increased; according to the Chinese Ministry of Public Security from 10’000 to 74’000.” (AD and ZZ)

Wang, Science, 2010

Protest of the middle class?

Driving Forces

• New technologies and the rapid dissemination of information

• Middle class - Basis of protest?• Impact of social networks• Perceived environmental burden of the PX project

(prevention is a public good)• Perceived impact of protest on the prevention of the PX

plant• Directly concerned citizens: Apartment in Haicang• Citizens who have no opportunity to move („Exit“ versus

„Voice“)• Directly concerned citizens: Apartment in Haicang• Heterogeneity and the „Theory of Critical Mass“ (Oliver

et al. 1985)

Oliver et al. 1985, A Theory of the Critical Mass, American Journalof Sociology 91.

Empirical investigation with a sample of the Xiamen population

• Socio-demografic characteristics (Age, education, occupation, income, place of residence etc.)

• Environmental concern• Information about PX• Information channels and social networks• Participation in various kinds of protest• Sample of about 900 respondents in three

Xiamen districts

Sampling

Districts ► Blocks ► Communities ►Families

Three Xiamen districts: two districts (Siming und Huli) on Xiamen island, one district on the mainland (Haicang)

Selection of 5 of 10 blocks in Siming, 3 of 5 blocks in Huli, 2 of 2 blocks in Haicang

Selection of 2 communities of each block in Siming, 3 in Huli and one in Haicang.

Interviews with 50 families in a community. ► N ca. 900

The protest scale (sum of items excluding items 1 and 4) has a Cronbach’s alpha of 0.83 (mean = 1.24, SD 1.95, N = 871). Principal component analysis yields a one factor solution with eigenvalue 3.76 and 47% explained variance.

Protest Scale

Regression analysis with protest behavior as dependent variable

Non-linear

Summary• Middle class? Not only middle class occupations

but almost all strata of Xiamen society were active in the protest.

• Students did not participate more than other citizens: Citizen protest but not a student protest!

• Not surprisingly, concerned people in Haicang had a high tendency to protest.

• Citizens with an exit option had a higher protest intensity than immobile citizen!

• No signifant impact of network size, only a slight tendency.

• Interestingly, a tendency that the communist youth had a higher protest intensity.

Campus Xiamen University

The End –But not the end of environmentalprotests!

Regression with PROTEST (0 – 8) N Model 5 Model 6 Model 7Constant   2.02 (3.98)* 1.87 (3.54)* 1.74 (3.35)*Gender (women = 1) 898 -0.21 (-1.36) -0.15 (-0.99) -0.21 (-1.41)Age 885 -0.02 (-2.07)* -0.02 (-1.84) -0.02 (-1.67)Education1: Lower middle chool 900 -0.55 (-1.38) -0.48 (-1.17) -0.50 (-1.24)Education: Upper middle school 900 -0.43 (-1.09) -0.40 (-0.97) -0.43 (-1.10)Education: Uni. of applied sciences 900 -0.37 (-0.86) -0.27 (-0.61) -0.35 (-0.82)Education: University 900 -0.70 (-1.62) -0.55 (-1.23) -0.63 (-1.45)Occupation2: in responsible position in state, party or business company

896 0.38 (1.10) 0.44 (1.24) 0.46 (1.32)

Occupation: technical personnel 896 0.60 (2.65)* 0.49 (2.12)* 0.60 (2.65)*Occupation: member of staff without leading function

896 1.03 (3.56)* 0.92 (3.10)* 1.03 (3.57)*

Occupation: working in agriculture 896 0.74 (1.55) 0.72 (1.48) 0.74 (1.58)Occupation: employees in production and transport

896 0.22 (0.81) 0.22 (0.78) 0.22 (0.81)

Occupation: member of the army 896 -0.68 (-1.10) -0.81 (-1.27) -0.50 (-0.79)Occupation: pupil or student 896 -0.15 (-0.49) -0.19 (-0.61) -0.20 (-0.64)Occupation: unemployed person 896 0.76 (1.84) 0.96 (2.25)* 0.73 (1.77)Occupation: retired person 896 0.45 (0.91) 0.35 (0.69) 0.38 (0.77)Occupation: others 896 -0.15 (-0.36) 0.15 (0.36) -0.20 (-0.50)Leading Position 803 0.29 (1.21) 0.24 (0.95) 0.27 (1.12)Annual Income (in 10’000 Yuan) 679 0.10 (7.45)*   0.10 (7.56)*log10 of annual Income 679   0.98 (4.01)*  Has children 896 -0.17 (-0.79) -0.15 (-0.69) -0.05 (-0.23)Years of residence in Xiamen 889 -0.003 (-0.41) -0.003 (-0.49) -0.002 (-0.37)Member of Communist Party 893     -0.31 (-1.28)Member of Communist Youth Organization

893     0.40 (1.95)

t-values in parentheses   Adj. R2 = 0.10 Adj. R2 = 0.05 Adj. R2 = 0.11

1 reference group = Basic schooling

2 reference group = personnel in sales and services

 N Minimum Maximum Mean

(Std. Dev.)Gender 1 898 0 1 0.52Age 885 14 80 32 (12.2)Education: Basic schooling 2 (reference group) 900 0 1 0.04Education: Lower middle chool 2 900 0 1 0.27Education: Upper middle school 2 900 0 1 0.35Education: University of applied sciences 2 900 0 1 0.16Education: University2 900 0 1 0.19Occupation: in responsible position in state, party or business company 2

896 0 1 0.06

Occupation: technical personnel 2 896 0 1 0.17Occupation: member of staff without leading function 2 896 0 1 0.08Occupation: personnel in sales and services 2 (reference group)

896 0 1 0.36

Occupation: working in agriculture 2 896 0 1 0.03Occupation: employees in production and transport 2 896 0 1 0.09Occupation: member of the army 2 896 0 1 0.01Occupation: pupil or student 2 896 0 1 0.08Occupation: unemployed person 2 896 0 1 0.03Occupation: retired person 2 896 0 1 0.04Occupation: others 2 896 0 1 0.03Leading Position 2, 3 803 0 1 0.12Annual Income (in 10’000 Yuan) 679 0.20 80 3.76 (5.71)Has children 2 896 0 1 0.49Years of residence in Xiamen 889 0.08 67 11.9 (13.8)Member of Communist Party 2 893 0 1 0.14Member of Communist Youth Organization 2 893 0 1 0.24No Party Member 2 893 0 1 0.61

1 0 = men, 1 = women2 0 = no, 1 = yes3 head of department, team leader etc.

 N Minimum Maximum Mean

(Std. Dev.)Environmental consciousness 1 895 19 40 30.73 (4.07)Knowledge concerning PX-Project 2 888 0 10 5.26 (3.48)Expected damage caused by PX-Project 3 774 0 8 3.53 (2.21)Benefits of PX-Project expected 4 763 0 1 0.76Strong impact of protest expected 4 744 0 1 0.33Weak impact of protest expected 4 744 0 1 0.48No impact of protest expected 4 744 0 1 0.19Time resource 5 889 1 5 3.16 (1.14)Owner of apartment in Haicang 4 809 0 1 0.15Exit opportunity 4, 6 776 0 1 0.38Network size 7 659 0.30 4.01 1.65 (0.42)Got informed on PX-Project first via internet 4

770 0 1 0.24

1 sum of 8 itemscores (Likertscales: from 1=completely disagree to 5=completely agree)2 sum of 10 itemscores (for each item: 0=no, I don’t know, 1=yes, I know)3 sum of 8 itemscores (list of 8 possible damages, 0=not expected to occur, if PX-Project were realized, 1=expected to occur)4 0 = no, 1 = yes5 average free time being at respondents disposal every day besides hours of work: 1=less than 1 h, 2=1-2h, 3=3-5h, 4=5-8h, 5=more than 8h6 Would it be possible for you to leave Xiamen if the PX-Project were realized?7 number of persons being felicitated by the respondent on the occasion of Chinese New Year.

Concerning the PX project, in which activities did you participate? (n = 869)

Mean(SD)

Corrected Item-Total Correlation

Cronbach’s Alpha if Item Deleted

Giving attention to relevant newspaper articles 0.73 (0.47) 0.394 0.803

Commenting and giving opinions in Internet discussions groups 0.22 (0.42) 0.509 0.788

Dissemination of information via cell phone or e-mail 0.19 (0.39) 0.518 0.787

Face-to-face discussion with other people 0.62 (0.49) 0.302 0.818

Encourage other people to participate in the protests 0.21 (0.41) 0.517 0.787

Sending a letter, an e-mail or making a phone call to authorities 0.13 (0.34) 0.572 0.783

Contacting the media 0.10 (0.29) 0.531 0.789

Contacting environmental NGOs 0.16 (0.37) 0.552 0.784

Protesting directly at the organizations or by the persons who are responsible for the PX project

0.13 (0.33) 0.573 0.783

Participation in the demonstrations 0.11 (0.31) 0.540 0.787

Probleme staatlicher Steuerung• Beijing, Zentralregierung: Umweltziele, Projekte,

SEPA, NGOs• Dezentralisierung, relative Autonomie der

Provinzregierungen und Kommunen• Karriere lokaler Funktionäre hängt

hauptsächlich von wirtschaftlichem Wachstum und Stabilität ab.

• Verflechtung lokale Funktionäre und Unternehmen, Korruption, keine unabhängige Rechtsprechung

Umweltproteste ► 2005: 1000 Umweltproteste in der VR China pro Woche

(51000 im Jahr).

(E.C. Economy, The great leap backwards? Foreign Affairs, Sept./Oct. 2007)

►Xiamen, Juni 2007. Proteste gegen den Bau einer PX- Fabrik durch taiwanesischen Investor.

► (Paraxylene ► Polyester), grösste Fabrik weltweit, nahe

Stadtzentrum. (Toxisch, kanzerogen, Verdacht auf fetale Missbildungen u.a.)

► Sollte 80 Mrd. Yuan (ca. 8 Mrd. €) zum GNP von Xiamen beitragen (25 % des GNP)

Vertreter von Medien aus anderen Provinzen berichten

„So reiste Bei Feng, ein Reporter aus der Nachbarprovinz Guang

Zhou (Kanton) nach Xiamen, um die Vorfälle dort zu dokumentieren. Als die Demonstranten Probleme bekamen, weil der örtliche Netzwerkbetreiber ihre sms blockierte, schickte er seine Berichte via Mobiltelefon nach Guangzhou – durch das Netz des dortigen Anbieters. Ein Kollege leitete die Berichte weiter und Internetnutzer in ganz China konnten die Ereignisse in Xiamen live verfolgen.

Viele traditionelle Medien griffen die Geschichte auf. Etliche Magazine und Tageszeitungen veröffentlichten Hintergrundartikel mit vorsichtig formulierten, aber eindeutigen Kommentaren. Sogar Chinas zentrales Staatsfernsehen cctv berichtete kritisch. Die lokale Presse in Xiamen musste allerdings schweigen.“

Zhu Yi und Katrin Altmaier, Wie Chinas Medien für mehr Demokratie trommeln. Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung, 2/2007.

Neue Informationskanäle

• Videos auf Youtube• Behörden veranlassen Filterung von SMS,

Löschung von SMS mit Stichwort „PX“• 500 Fotos der Xiamen Demonstrationen in

Flickr, Sperre durch Behörden (Bericht Spiegel-Online)

• Wichtige Rolle von SMS, Internet-Blogs, real-time reports etc. als alternative Medien.

Wang, Science, 2010

Die Mittelklasse engagiert sich?

Protestbewegungen1. Kämpfen für kollektive Güter2. Kollektivgutproblematik: Eigeninteressierte Akteure wählen

„Trittbrettfahren“ (wie im Kollektivgutspiel)3. Warum gibt es dann überhaupt Protestbewegungen?4. Selektive Anreize für Beteiligung5. Weitere Motive: Emotionale Gründe, Loyalität mit anderen

Protestierenden, Überschätzung Einfluss eigenen Beitrags6. „Kritische Masse“.7. Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass sich eine kritische Masse bildet, wird

durch „Heterogenität“ unterstützt (Heterogenität von Interessen. Wer stark am kollektiven Gut interessiert ist, wird beginnen, andere mitziehen und eventuell eine kritische Masse aufbauen).

Mancur Olson, 1965. The Logic of Collective Action (1, 2, 3, 4)Oliver et al. 1985, A Theory of Critical Mass, American Journal of Sociology.

Messung von Einstellungen• Messung von Umweltbewusstsein: Skala mit neun „Items“ (Aussagen)

• Beispiel:

„Wenn wir so weitermachen wie bisher, steuern wir auf eine Umweltkatastrophe zu.“

Stimme überhaupt nicht zu/stimme nicht zu/teils-teils/stimme zu/stimme stark zu (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

UB = Summe der Werte für die einzelnen Items (Itemscore)

Mit einer Auswahl von Items, die die zu Grunde liegende Dimension widerspiegeln (das kann man testen mit Itemanalysen oder der Faktorenanalyse. Weniger brauchbare Items werden dann herausgefiltert.)

Verschiedene Protestaktivitäten: Brief an Behörden, an die Presse wenden, an Demonstration teilnehmen usw.

PROTEST = Summe der angegebenen Protestaktivitäten

• Wenn wir so weitermachen wie bisher, steuern wir auf eine Umweltkatastrophe zu.

Geben Sie bitte Ihre Meinung zu den folgenden Aussagen an:(n = 894)

Mittelwert(Standard-abweichung)

Corrected Item-Total Correlation

Cronbach’s Alpha if Item deleted

Es beunruhigt mich, wenn ich daran denke, unter welchen Umweltverhältnissen unsere Kinder und Enkelkinder wahrscheinlich leben müssen.

4.39 (0.89) 0.234 0.453

Wenn wir so weitermachen wie bisher, steuern wir auf eine Umweltkatastrophe zu.

4.33 (0.89) 0.315 0.429

Wenn ich Zeitungsberichte über Umweltprobleme lese oder entsprechende Fernsehsendungen sehe, bin ich oft empört und wütend.

4.33 (0.83) 0.335 0.426

Es gibt Grenzen des Wachstums, die wir schon überschritten haben oder sehr bald erreichen werden.

3.01 (1.14) 0.178 0.472

Derzeit ist es immer noch so, dass sich der grösste Teil der Bevölkerung wenig umweltbewusst verhält.

4.02 (0.97) 0.308 0.427

Nach meiner Einschätzung wird das Umweltproblem in seiner Bedeutung von vielen Umweltschützern stark übertrieben.

3.55 (1.21) - 0.036 0.554

Es ist noch immer so, dass die Politiker viel zu wenig für den Umweltschutz tun.

3.84 (1.07) 0.238 0.449

Zugunsten der Umwelt sollten wir alle bereit sein, unseren derzeitigen Lebensstandard einzuschränken.

3.14 (1.25) 0.205 0.463

Umweltschutzmassnahmen sollten auch dann durchgesetzt werden, wenn dadurch Arbeitsplätze verloren gehen.

3.66 (1.14) 0.240 0.448

An welchen der folgenden Aktivitäten im Zusammenhang mit dem PX-Projekt haben Sie teilgenommen? (n = 869)

Mittelwert(Standard-abweichung)

Corrected Item-Total Correlation

Cronbach’s Alpha if Item deleted

Beachtung relevanter Pressenachrichten 0.73 (0.47) 0.394 0.803

Abgabe von Kommentaren und Meinungen in Diskussionsforen per Internet 0.22 (0.42) 0.509 0.788

Verbreitung von Informationen per Handy oder Email 0.19 (0.39) 0.518 0.787

Face-to-face-Diskussionen mit anderen 0.62 (0.49) 0.302 0.818

Andere zu mehr Beteiligung ermutigen 0.21 (0.41) 0.517 0.787

Sich an die Behörden per Brief (einschliesslich Email) oder Telefon wenden 0.13 (0.34) 0.572 0.783

Sich an die Presse Wenden 0.10 (0.29) 0.531 0.789

Sich an NGOs im Umweltschutzbereich wenden 0.16 (0.37) 0.552 0.784

Direkt bei den Organisationen oder Personen, die für die Umweltverschmutzung verantwortlich sind, Protest erheben

0.13 (0.33) 0.573 0.783

Beteiligung an den Demonstrationen 0.11 (0.31) 0.540 0.787

Protestaktivitäten

 N Minimum Maximum Mean

(Std. Dev.)Gender 1 898 0 1 0.52Age 885 14 80 32 (12.2)Education: Basic schooling 2 (reference group) 900 0 1 0.04Education: Lower middle chool 2 900 0 1 0.27Education: Upper middle school 2 900 0 1 0.35Education: University of applied sciences 2 900 0 1 0.16Education: University2 900 0 1 0.19Occupation: in responsible position in state, party or business company 2

896 0 1 0.06

Occupation: technical personnel 2 896 0 1 0.17Occupation: member of staff without leading function 2 896 0 1 0.08Occupation: personnel in sales and services 2 (reference group)

896 0 1 0.36

Occupation: working in agriculture 2 896 0 1 0.03Occupation: employees in production and transport 2 896 0 1 0.09Occupation: member of the army 2 896 0 1 0.01Occupation: pupil or student 2 896 0 1 0.08Occupation: unemployed person 2 896 0 1 0.03Occupation: retired person 2 896 0 1 0.04Occupation: others 2 896 0 1 0.03Leading Position 2, 3 803 0 1 0.12Annual Income (in 10’000 Yuan) 679 0.20 80 3.76 (5.71)Has children 2 896 0 1 0.49Years of residence in Xiamen 889 0.08 67 11.9 (13.8)Member of Communist Party 2 893 0 1 0.14Member of Communist Youth Organization 2 893 0 1 0.24No Party Member 2 893 0 1 0.61

1 0 = men, 1 = women2 0 = no, 1 = yes3 head of department, team leader etc.

 N Minimum Maximum Mean

(Std. Dev.)Environmental consciousness 1 895 19 40 30.73 (4.07)Knowledge concerning PX-Project 2 888 0 10 5.26 (3.48)Expected damage caused by PX-Project 3 774 0 8 3.53 (2.21)Benefits of PX-Project expected 4 763 0 1 0.76Strong impact of protest expected 4 744 0 1 0.33Weak impact of protest expected 4 744 0 1 0.48No impact of protest expected 4 744 0 1 0.19Time resource 5 889 1 5 3.16 (1.14)Owner of apartment in Haicang 4 809 0 1 0.15Exit opportunity 4, 6 776 0 1 0.38Network size 7 659 0.30 4.01 1.65 (0.42)Got informed on PX-Project first via internet 4

770 0 1 0.24

1 sum of 8 itemscores (Likertscales: from 1=completely disagree to 5=completely agree)2 sum of 10 itemscores (for each item: 0=no, I don’t know, 1=yes, I know)3 sum of 8 itemscores (list of 8 possible damages, 0=not expected to occur, if PX-Project were realized, 1=expected to occur)4 0 = no, 1 = yes5 average free time being at respondents disposal every day besides hours of work: 1=less than 1 h, 2=1-2h, 3=3-5h, 4=5-8h, 5=more than 8h6 Would it be possible for you to leave Xiamen if the PX-Project were realized?7 number of persons being felicitated by the respondent on the occasion of Chinese New Year.

PROTEST

UB (Umwelt-Bewusstsein)

PROTEST:Skala von0 bis 8,

UB:Skala von8 bis 40

Spezifikation einer einfachen linearen Schätzgleichung

PROTEST = b0 + b1 Einkommen + b2 Umweltbewusstsein + b3 Informiertheit über PX + b4 Betroffenheit (Wohnung in Haicang) + b5 Wahrnehmung der Schäden durch PX + b6 Informationskanal Internet + b7 Exit + b8 Grösse des sozialen Netzwerks + … + ε (normalverteilter Fehlerterm)

Regression with PROTEST (0 – 8) N Model 5 Model 6 Model 7Constant   2.02 (3.98)* 1.87 (3.54)* 1.74 (3.35)*Gender (women = 1) 898 -0.21 (-1.36) -0.15 (-0.99) -0.21 (-1.41)Age 885 -0.02 (-2.07)* -0.02 (-1.84) -0.02 (-1.67)Education1: Lower middle chool 900 -0.55 (-1.38) -0.48 (-1.17) -0.50 (-1.24)Education: Upper middle school 900 -0.43 (-1.09) -0.40 (-0.97) -0.43 (-1.10)Education: Uni. of applied sciences 900 -0.37 (-0.86) -0.27 (-0.61) -0.35 (-0.82)Education: University 900 -0.70 (-1.62) -0.55 (-1.23) -0.63 (-1.45)Occupation2: in responsible position in state, party or business company

896 0.38 (1.10) 0.44 (1.24) 0.46 (1.32)

Occupation: technical personnel 896 0.60 (2.65)* 0.49 (2.12)* 0.60 (2.65)*Occupation: member of staff without leading function

896 1.03 (3.56)* 0.92 (3.10)* 1.03 (3.57)*

Occupation: working in agriculture 896 0.74 (1.55) 0.72 (1.48) 0.74 (1.58)Occupation: employees in production and transport

896 0.22 (0.81) 0.22 (0.78) 0.22 (0.81)

Occupation: member of the army 896 -0.68 (-1.10) -0.81 (-1.27) -0.50 (-0.79)Occupation: pupil or student 896 -0.15 (-0.49) -0.19 (-0.61) -0.20 (-0.64)Occupation: unemployed person 896 0.76 (1.84) 0.96 (2.25)* 0.73 (1.77)Occupation: retired person 896 0.45 (0.91) 0.35 (0.69) 0.38 (0.77)Occupation: others 896 -0.15 (-0.36) 0.15 (0.36) -0.20 (-0.50)Leading Position 803 0.29 (1.21) 0.24 (0.95) 0.27 (1.12)Annual Income (in 10’000 Yuan) 679 0.10 (7.45)*   0.10 (7.56)*log10 of annual Income 679   0.98 (4.01)*  Has children 896 -0.17 (-0.79) -0.15 (-0.69) -0.05 (-0.23)Years of residence in Xiamen 889 -0.003 (-0.41) -0.003 (-0.49) -0.002 (-0.37)Member of Communist Party 893     -0.31 (-1.28)Member of Communist Youth Organization

893     0.40 (1.95)

t-values in parentheses   Adj. R2 = 0.10 Adj. R2 = 0.05 Adj. R2 = 0.11

1 reference group = Basic schooling

2 reference group = personnel in sales and services

Regression with PROTEST (0 – 8) N Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4Constant   0.35 (0.51) 0.25 (0.35) -0.52 (-0.71) -0.51 (-0.69)Gender (women = 1) 898 -0.13 (-0.83) -0.11 (-0.72) -0.13 (-0.88) -0.13 (-0.86)Age 885 -0.02 (-2.59)* -0.02 (-2.58)* -0.02 (-2.35)* -0.02 (-2.26)*Annual Income (in 10’000 Yuan) 679 0.07 (5.29)* 0.08 (5.43)* 0.08 (5.66)* 0.08 (5.61)*Member of Communist Party 893 -0.49 (-2.18)* -0.48 (-2.14)* -0.44 (-2.01)* -0.44 (-2.02)*Member of Communist Youth Organisation

893 0.40 (2.04)* 0.42 (2.11)* 0.34 (1.80) 0.35 (1.80)

Environmental consciousness 895 0.03 (1.35) 0.03 (1.30) 0.02 (1.10) 0.02 (1.06)Knowledge concerning PX-Project 888 0.17 (6.97)* 0.17 (6.95)* 0.13 (5.62)* 0.13 (5.43)*Expected damage caused by PX-Project

774 0.02 (0.49) 0.05 (1.08) 0.03 (0.71) 0.03 (0.70)

Benefits of PX-Project expected 763 -0.11 (-0.60) -0.10 (-0.57) 0.11 (0.62) 0.11 (0.62)Strong impact of protest expected 744 0.15 (0.65) 0.49 (1.38) 0.43 (1.25) 0.44 (1.27)Weak impact of protest expected 744 -0.25 (-1.22) -0.27 (-1.30) -0.26 (-1.29) -0.26 (-1.27)Interaction: Strong impact of protest expected damage caused by PX-Project

746   -0.10 (-1.25) -0.10 (-1.29) -0.10 (-1.30)

Time resource 889 -0.11 (-1.59) -0.10 (-1.48) -0.08 (-1.15) -0.08 (-1.17)Owner of apartment in Haicang 809     0.91 (4.30)* 0.91 (4.31)*Exit opportunity 776     0.60 (3.80)* 0.60 (3.79)*Network size 659     0.30 (1.68) 0.30 (1.64)Information on PX-Project via internet

770       0.05 (0.29)

t-values in parentheses   Adj. R2 = 0.19 Adj. R2 = 0.19 Adj. R2 = 0.25 Adj. R2 = 0.24

Campus Xiamen University

Figure adopted fromYandle et al. 2002

Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC)

Liu and Diamond, 2005. Nature 435:1179-1186.

Cost of environmental pollution 8 to 12 percent of GNP (E.C. Economy, The greatleap backwards? Foreign Affairs, Sept./Oct. 2007.

Wikipedia

Tian‘anmen, Foto Diekmann