Cycle de vie, emploi et retraite

Jean-Olivier HAIRAULT, Professeur à Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne et à l’Ecole d’Economie de Paris (EEP)

The life-cycle decisions

RetirementEducation Working life

When employed: hours, wage

bargaining and search on the job

When unemployed: job search

Saving and consumption

participationparticipation

Two stylized facts

Fact 1

.2.4

.6.8

1T

au

x d

'em

plo

i

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010années

txemp2554m txemp5054m

txemp5559m txemp6064m

Fra-HommesTaux d'emploi par âge

Fact 2

Fact 2

Fact 2 : Focusing on older workers

Fact 2 : Focusing on older workers

60 65 55 years old

54 % 13%

37%Financial costsEuropean Target : 50%

Sweden : 78%G-B : 67%Germany: 56%

Sweden : 57%G-B : 40%Germany : 21%

Why?

To increase the retirement age

Fact 2: Focusing on older workers

Ita

JapSue

Bel

Usa

GBr

Fra

EspCan

PB

All

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

1

60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69

Age de retraite de référence

Ta

ux

d'e

mp

loi

rela

tif

55

-59

/2

5-5

9

Droite d'ajustement

L’horizon d’activité se raccourcit avec l’âge

La perspective de la retraite décourage tout «investissement » des et dans les seniors

Pour un chômeur proche de la retraite : à quoi bon chercher un emploi ?

Pour une entreprise : à quoi bon formerou embaucher un travailleur proche de la retraite ?

EntréeVie active

AgeRetraite

Impact négatif de la date butoir sur l’emploide la génération la plus proche de la retraite

Baisse du taux d’emploi à proximité de l’âge de la retraite dans tous les pays

=60 ansFrance

50

Ce n’est pas l’âge absolu qui compte mais la distanceà la retraite

65 ansOCDE

Oecd data on labor force: international comparisons:

employment rate and unemployment rate by age: 15-19;

20-24; 25-29; 30-50; 50-54; 55-59; 60-64; 65-70; Time

series and cross-country.

French Labor Force Survey: Enquête Emploi; employment

and unemployment rate by age; transitions employment-

unemployment by age

Part I :Retirement and Social Security System

Chapter 1. SS Efficiency: Funded versus PAYG system

A. optimal accumulation

B. Uncertainty (idiosyncratic/global) and risk sharing

(intra/intergenerational)

C. SS System and Inequality

Chapter 2 . Topics

A. Role of intergenerational altruism

B. Time-inconsistent choices

C. Political economy

Chapter 3. Retirement age decision

A. Principles and the role of productivity, health and death

B. The SS neutrality and the tax on continued activity

C. A laffer curve view

Part 2: Life-cycle Employment

Chapter 4. Older worker Experiences

A. International comparisons

B. French specificities

Chapter 5. Job destructions and Job creations over the life

cycle

A. A positive theory

B. Age-Employment Policies

C. Explaining transatlantic differences

Chapter 6: Retirement and Job search interactions

A. A joint decision

B. Delaying retirement age: a double dividend

Les seniors et l'emploi en France, Conseil d'Analyse

Economique, 2005.

COR Reports

OECD reports on older worker employment

L’impact du vieillissement démographique sur les

mécanismes macroéconomiques, Antoine d'Autume

Artus P. et F. Legros (1999) Le choix du système de retraite,

Economica.

Charpin J.-M. (1999) L’avenir de nos retraites, Rapport au

Premier ministre, La Documentation Française

Social Security and optimal capital accumulation

« National Debt in a Neoclassical Growth Model », Peter

Diamond, AER Dec. 1965.

“The Social Insurance Paradox,” Henry Aaron, The Canadian,

Journal of Economics and Political Science, 1966.

“Assessing Dynamic Efficiency: Theory and Evidence”, Andrew

Abel et al., REStud, Jan 1989.

Uncertainty, borrowing constraints

“On the Role of Social Security as a Means for Efficient Risk

Sharing in an Economy where Human Capital is not

Tradable”, Robert Merton, chpt. in Zvi Bodie et al., Financial

Aspects of the U.S. Pensions Systems, 1983.

“Intergenerational Risk-Sharing and Risk-Taking of a

Pension Fund,” Gollier, C., Journal of Public Economics

(December, 2007),

“The Risk-Sharing Implications of Alternative Social Security

Arrangements,” Storesletten, K., C. I. Telmer and A. Yaron,

Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 50

(June 1999), 213—259.

Uncertainty, borrowing constraints

Krueger, D. and F. Kubler, “Pareto-Improving Social Security

Reform When Financial Markets are Incomplete!?”

American Economic Review, June, 2006.

Dirk Krueger & Felix Kubler, 2002. "Intergenerational Risk-

Sharing via Social Security when Financial Markets Are

Incomplete," American Economic Review, American

Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 407-410, May.

Conesa, J. and D. Krueger, “Social Security Reform with

Heterogeneous Agents,” Review of Economic Dynamics 2

(October 1999), 757—795.

Inequality and Social Security

“On the Distributional Effects of Social Security Reform,”

Huggett, M. and G. Ventura, Review of Economic Dynamics

(July 1999), 498—531.

Inequality and Social Security Reforms, Journal of Economic

Dynamics and Control, (J.O Hairault and F. Langot), 2008.

Le caractère plus égalitaire de la retraite par répartition:

une cause entendue?  (joint with F. Langot), in  Revue

d'Economie Politique, 2002, vol. 112, p.563-572.

The role of altruism

De Nardi, M., “Wealth Inequality and Intergenerational Links,”

Review of Economic Studies 71 (July 2004), 743—768.

Luisa Fuster, 1999. "Is Altruism Important for

Understanding the Long-Run Effects of Social

Security?," Review of Economic Dynamics.

“A Welfare Analysis of Social Security in a Dynastic

Framework”, (Luisa Fuster, Ayse İmrohoroğlu and Selahattin

İmrohoroğlu), International Economic Review, Vol. 44, No.

4, November 2003.

“Elimination of Social Security in a Dynastic Framework’’,

(Luisa Fuster, Ayse İmrohoroğlu and Selahattin İmrohoroğlu),

Review of Economic Studies. forthcoming

The role of mandatory savings

“Time Inconsistent Preferences and Social Security”, (Ayse

İmrohoroğlu, Selahattin İmrohoroğlu and Douglas Joines),

Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 118, issue 2, May

2003

“Are You Sure You’re Saving Enough for Retirement?”

Journal of Economic Perspectives, 21(3) Summer 2007: 59-

80.

“What Accounts for the Variation in Retirement Saving

Across U.S. Households?” (with B. D. Bernheim and S.

Weinberg), American Economic Review 91(4) (September

2001):832-57.

Political economy

"The political economy of social security: a survey,"

European Journal of Political Economy, Galasso, Vincenzo &

Profeta, Paola, 2002. Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-29,

March.

Boldrin, M and A. Rustichini (2000), Political Equilibria with

Social Security," Review of Economic Dynamics, 3, 41-78.

Cooley, T. and J. Soares (1997), A Positive Theory of Social

Security Based on Reputation," Journal of Political Economy,

107, 135-160.

Will social security boom survive the baby, Thomas F.

Cooley and Jorge Soares, Carnegie-Rochester Conference

Series on Public Policy 45 (1996).

Transition from a Paygo to a Funded Retirement System

Retirement Age

Economics of retirement, Alan L. Gustman and Thomas L.

Steinmeier

Ageing and retirement age. What can we learn from the

Overlapping Generations Model ? Antoine d'Autume

Blanchet D. and L. Caussat (2000), Le libre choix de l’âge

de la retraite, approche économique, in Retraites choisies

et progressives, D. Taddei ed., Rapport du Conseil

d’Analyse Economique, La Documentation française

Social Security (non-)neutrality

Gruber, J. and D.Wise, “Social Security and Retirement: An

International Comparison,” American Economic Review 88

(May 1998), 158—163.

The laffer curve on the continued activity tax

Inciter à différer le départ en retraite: une analyse en

termes de courbe de Laffer (joint with F. Langot and T.

Sopraseuth), in  Revue d'Economie Politique, 2005, 115,

p.241-263.

Quantifying the Laffer Curve on the Continued Activity Tax

in a Dynastic Framework. International Economic Review,

 (J.O. Hairault, F. Langot and T. Sopraseuth), Forthcoming.

Life Cycle Employment

Heckman, James J, 1974. "Life Cycle Consumption and

Labor Supply: An Explanation of the Relationship

Between Income and Consumption Over the Life

Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic

Association, vol. 64(1), pages 188-94, March

Life-cycle equilibrium unemployment, A. Chéron, J.O.

Hairault and F. Langot.

Les effets à rebours de l'âge de la retraite sur le taux

d'emploi des seniors, (joint with F. Langot and T.

Sopraseuth), in Economie et Statistique, 2007.

Retirement and job search interactions

The Pre-Retirement Job Search: A Basic Explanation of the

Older Worker Employment. J.O. Hairault, F. Langot and T.

Sopraseuth