Country Briefing: Eurozone - Yardeni Research · 2020-07-22 · Country Briefing: Eurozone Yardeni Research, Inc. July 22, 2020 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected]

Country Briefing:Eurozone

Yardeni Research, Inc.

October 2, 2020

Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683

[email protected]

Debbie Johnson480-664-1333

[email protected]

Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents

October 2, 2020 / Eurozone www.yardeni.com


Real GDP 1-2Industrial Production 3-5Purchasing Managers Indexes 6Merchandise Trade 7Retail Sales 8Unemployment 9Consumer & Business Confidence 10Consumer Prices 11-12ECB Central Bank Rate 13Government Bond Yields 14Stock Markets 15

Figure 1.

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Q2

REAL GDP: EUROZONE (quarterly percent change, saar)

Total (-39.4)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

Q2

Domestic Demand (-37.7)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

Q2

Household Spending (-41.0)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Q2

Gross FixedCapital Formation (-52.6)

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Source: Statistical Office of European Communities.

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Real GDP

Page 1 / October 2, 2020 / Eurozone www.yardeni.com


Figure 2.

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-12-11-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-101234567

-12-11-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-101234567

Q2

REAL GDP: EUROZONE (quarterly percent change, saar)

Government Spending (-10.0)

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Q2

Exports ofGoods & Services (-56.5)

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00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Q2

Imports ofGoods & Services (-54.7)


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Real GDP



95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2265

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

Jul

EUROZONE: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION(2015=100, sa)

Total ExcludingConstructionManufacturing


Figure 3.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Jul

EUROZONE: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION(yearly percent change)

Total ExcludingConstruction (-7.8)Manufacturing (-7.9)


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Figure 4.

Industrial Production



Figure 5.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202255

65

75

85

95

105

115

125

55

65

75

85

95

105

115

125

Jul

EUROZONE: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION(2015=100, sa)

Capital GoodsConsumer Goods

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 202240

60

80

100

120

140

160

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jul

Consumer Durable GoodsConsumer Nondurable Goods

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202260

70

80

90

100

110

120

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jul

Intermediate GoodsEnergy

Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities.

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Figure 6.

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Jul

EUROZONE: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION(yearly percent change)

Capital GoodsConsumer Goods

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022-60

-40

-20

0

20

-60

-40

-20

0

20

Jul

Consumer DurableGoodsConsumer NondurableGoods

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

JulIntermediate GoodsEnergy


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2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202210

14

18

22

26

30

34

38

42

46

50

54

58

62

10

14

18

22

26

30

34

38

42

46

50

54

58

62

Aug

EUROZONE: COMPOSITE OF MANUFACTURING AND NONMANUFACTURING PMIs*

* An index above 50 indicates an increase in manufacturing activity. An index below 50 indicates a decrease in manufacturing activity.Soure: IHS Markit.

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Figure 7.

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202230

40

50

60

70

30

40

50

60

70

Sep

EUROZONE: MANUFACTURING PMI*

* An index above 50 indicates an increase in manufacturing activity. An index below 50 indicates a decrease in manufacturing activity.Soure: IHS Markit.

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Figure 8.

Purchasing Managers Indexes



Figure 9.

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Jul

EUROZONE: MERCHANDISE TRADE(billion euros, nsa)

Balance

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202250

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

Jul

(billion euros, sa)

Exports

Imports

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022-40

-20

0

20

40

60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Jul

(yearly percent change)

Exports

Imports


Merchandise Trade



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 202280

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

Jul

EUROZONE: VOLUME OF RETAIL SALES EX MOTOR VEHICLES(2010=100, sa)


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Figure 10.

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-20

-10

0

10

-20

-10

0

10

Jul

EUROZONE: RETAIL SALES EX MOTOR VEHICLES(yearly percent change)

Latest (0.6)


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Figure 11.

Retail Sales



2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20227.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

Aug

EUROZONE: UNEMPLOYMENT RATE(percent)

Latest (8.1)


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Figure 12.

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 20222.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

Aug

EUROZONE: NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED(millions, sa)


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Figure 13.

Unemployment



2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202260

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Sep

EUROZONE: ECONOMIC SENTIMENT INDICATOR*(long-term average=100, sa)

* The overall economic sentiment indicator (ESI) is derived from the industrial (weight 40%), service (30%), consumer (20%), construction (5%), andretail trade (5%) confidence indicators.Source: European Commission.

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Figure 14.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Sep

EUROZONE: ECONOMIC SENTIMENT INDICATORS(percent balance,sa)

Industrial (-11.1)Services (-11.1)Consumer (-13.9)Retail Trade (-8.7)Construction (-9.6)

Source: European Commission.

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Figure 15.

Consumer & Business Confidence



Figure 16.

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Aug

EUROZONE: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)

Total

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 20220

1

2

3

0

1

2

3

Aug

Excluding Energy, Food,Alcohol, and Tobacco

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022-2

0

2

4

6

8

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Aug

Food, Alcohol,and Tobacco


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Consumer Prices



Figure 17.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Aug

EUROZONE: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)

Energy (-7.8)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-2

0

2

4

6

8

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Aug

Housing (-1.1)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Aug

Health (0.5)


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Consumer Prices



2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2/5

ECB REFINANCING RATE(daily, percent)

Source: European Central Bank.

Figure 18.

ECB Central Bank Rate



93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

E

D

QE

NIRP QEE

Brexit

EUROZONE: GOVERNMENT 10-YEAR BOND YIELDS(percent, monthly)

Sep

Aug

Yields

Spain (0.30)

France (-0.21)Germany (-0.50)Italy (1.03)

Source: Haver Analytics.

Note: D (7/26/12) = ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to do "whatever it takes" to defend the euro. NIRP (6/5/2014) = negative interest-rate policy.QE (1/22/15) = quantitative easing. QEE (3/10/16) = expansion and extension of QE with corporate bond purchases started 6/1/16.

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Figure 19.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

QED NIRP QEE

Brexit

EUROZONE: GOVERNMENT 10-YEAR BOND YIELDS(percent, daily)

10/2

France (-0.26)Germany (-0.54)Italy (0.79)Spain (0.24)

Source: Haver Analytics.

Note: D (7/26/12) = ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to do "whatever it takes" to defend the euro. NIRP (6/5/2014) = negative interest-rate policy.QE (1/22/15) = quantitative easing. QEE (3/10/16) = expansion and extension of QE with corporate bond purchases started 6/1/16.

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Figure 20.

Government Bond Yields



Figure 21.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 221000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

10/2

EUROPE(Dow Jones Stoxx 50)(euro-based)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 221000

3000

5000

7000

9000

11000

13000

10/2

IRELAND(ISEQ Overall)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 221500

2500

3500

4500

5500

6500

7500

10/2

FRANCE(CAC 40)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2210000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

55000

10/2

ITALY(FTSE MIB)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 222000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

10/2GERMANY(DAX)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22150

250

350

450

550

650

10/2

NETHERLANDS(Amsterdam)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

10/2

GREECE(Athens, SE)

200-day moving average

Source: Reuters America, Inc.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22500

1000

1500

2000

10/2

SPAIN(Madrid General Index)

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Country Briefing: Eurozone - Yardeni Research · 2020-07-22 · Country Briefing: Eurozone Yardeni Research, Inc. July 22, 2020 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected]