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Global Economic Briefing:Global Monetary Aggregates
Yardeni Research, Inc.
October 22, 2020
Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683
Debbie Johnson480-664-1333
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
October 22, 2020 / Global Monetary Aggregates www.yardeni.com
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US Monetary Aggregates 3-4US Monetary Growth 5-7US Savings Deposits 8US Velocity 9Euro Area Monetary Growth 10-13Global Monetary Growth 14-16Global M2 Aggregate Growth 17
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22175
775
1375
1975
2575
3175
3775437549755575
175
775
1375
1975
2575
3175
3775437549755575
9/9MONETARY BASE*(ratio scale)
* Adjusted for changes in reserve requirements.Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
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Figure 1.
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
45005000550060006500
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
45005000550060006500
10/12M1(ratio scale)
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
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Figure 2.
US Monetary Aggregates
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84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 241200
3200
5200
7200
9200
11200
13200
1520017200192002120023200
1200
3200
5200
7200
9200
11200
13200
1520017200192002120023200
10/12MZM*(ratio scale)
* Includes M1, savings deposits, and all money market mutual funds (individual and institutional).Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
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Figure 3.
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 221500
5500
9500
13500
17500
21500
1500
5500
9500
13500
17500
21500
10/12M2(ratio scale)
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Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Figure 4.
US Monetary Aggregates
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84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
9/9
MONETARY BASE*(yearly percent change)
* Adjusted for changes in reserve requirements.Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
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Figure 5.
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
10/12
M1(yearly percent change)
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
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Figure 6.
US Monetary Growth
Page 5 / October 22, 2020 / Global Monetary Aggregates www.yardeni.com
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84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
10/12
MZM*(yearly percent change)
* Includes M1, savings deposits, and all money market mutual funds (individual and institutional).Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
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Figure 7.
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
5
10
15
20
25
0
5
10
15
20
2510/12M2
(yearly percent change)
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Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Figure 8.
US Monetary Growth
Page 6 / October 22, 2020 / Global Monetary Aggregates www.yardeni.com
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84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
10/12
US CURRENCY IN CIRCULATION(yearly percent change)
Latest (14.8)
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
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Figure 9.
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
10/12
M2-M1(yearly percent change)
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
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Figure 10.
US Monetary Growth
Page 7 / October 22, 2020 / Global Monetary Aggregates www.yardeni.com
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84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22300
2300
4300
6300
8300
10300
12300
300
2300
4300
6300
8300
10300
12300 10/12
10/12
INTEREST-BEARING DEPOSITS(billion dollars, ratio scale, sa)
Savings Deposits (includingMoney Market Deposit Accounts)*
Total Small TimeDeposits**
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
* Included in M2.** Included in M2. IRA and Keogh account balances are excluded.
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Figure 11.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022.6
1.0
1.4
1.8
2.2
2.6
3.0
3.4
3.8
4.2
.6
1.0
1.4
1.8
2.2
2.6
3.0
3.4
3.8
4.2
10/12
10/12
MONEY MARKET MUTUAL FUNDS(trillion dollars, ratio scale, sa)
Held By:
Retail** (1.1)Institutions* (2.9)
** Included in M2. IRA and Keogh account balances are excluded.* Included in MZM, but not in M1 or M2.
Source: Federal Reserve Board.
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Figure 12.
US Savings Deposits
Page 8 / October 22, 2020 / Global Monetary Aggregates www.yardeni.com
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62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-10
-6
-2
2
6
10
14
18
22
26
-10
-6
-2
2
6
10
14
18
22
26
Sep
Q2
M2 & GDP(yearly percent change)
M2 (using 3-month ma)*Nominal GDP
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
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Figure 13.
62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1.041.091.141.191.241.301.351.401.451.501.551.601.651.701.751.801.851.901.952.002.052.102.152.202.25
Q2
M2 VELOCITY(GDP/M2)
Velocity
Three-Month Treasury Bill Rate
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
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Figure 14.
US Velocity
Page 9 / October 22, 2020 / Global Monetary Aggregates www.yardeni.com
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-5
0
5
10
15
20
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Aug
EUROZONE MONETARY AGGREGATES*(yearly percent change)
M1 (13.2)M2 (9.6)M3 (9.5)
* Includes currency in circulation.Source: European Central Bank and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 15.
Euro Area Monetary Growth
Page 10 / October 22, 2020 / Global Monetary Aggregates www.yardeni.com
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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30M2 MONETARY AGGREGATES*: EUROZONE(yearly percent change)
France (Aug=13.9) Germany (Aug=6.8)Greece (Aug=6.6) Italy (Aug=6.4)Ireland (Aug=16.3) Netherlands (Aug=7.9)Portugal (Aug=8.2) Spain (Aug=8.4)
* Includes currency in circulation.Source: Bank of Greece, Duetsche Bundesbank, Banque de France, Banco de Portugal, Banca d’ Italia, Banco de Espana, De Nederlandsche Bank,Central Statistics Office Ireland, and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 16.
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45M3 MONETARY AGGREGATES*: EUROZONE(yearly percent change)
France (Aug=12.1) Germany (Aug=6.4)Greece (Aug=6.6) Italy (Aug=6.3)Ireland (Aug=26.2) Netherlands (Aug=7.1)Portugal (Aug=8.4) Spain (Aug=8.4)
* Includes currency in circulation.Source: Bank of Greece, Duetsche Bundesbank, Banque de France, Banco de Portugal, Banca d’ Italia, Banco de Espana, De Nederlandsche Bank,Central Statistics Office Ireland, and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 17.
Euro Area Monetary Growth
Page 11 / October 22, 2020 / Global Monetary Aggregates www.yardeni.com
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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Aug
MONETARY AGGREGATES*: GERMANY(yearly percent change, sa)
M1 (10.4)M2 (6.8)M3 (6.4)
* Includes currency in circulation.Source: Duetsche Bundesbank and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 18.
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Aug
MONETARY AGGREGATES*: FRANCE(yearly percent change)
M1 (19.0)M2 (13.9)M3 (12.1)
* Includes currency in circulation.Source: Banque de France and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 19.
Euro Area Monetary Growth
Page 12 / October 22, 2020 / Global Monetary Aggregates www.yardeni.com
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Aug
MONETARY AGGREGATES*: ITALY(yearly percent change)
M1 (7.5)M2 (6.4)M3 (6.3)
* Includes currency in circulation.Source: Banca d’Italia and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 20.
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Aug
MONETARY AGGREGATES*: SPAIN(yearly percent change)
M1 (12.6)M2 (8.4)M3 (8.4)
* Includes currency in circulation.Source: Banco de Espana and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 21.
Euro Area Monetary Growth
Page 13 / October 22, 2020 / Global Monetary Aggregates www.yardeni.com
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89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-6
0
6
12
18
24
30
36
-6
0
6
12
18
24
30
36
Aug
MONETARY AGGREGATES*: UNITED KINGDOM(yearly percent change)
* Includes currency in circulation.Source: Central Statistical Office.
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M1 (15.7)M2 (11.7)M3 (9.8)
Figure 22.
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
33
36
39
42
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
33
36
39
42
Aug
M2*: CANADA(yearly percent change)
* Includes curreny in circulation.Source: Bank of Canada/Haver Analytics.
M1 (26.6)M2 (16.9)M3 (15.2)
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Figure 23.
Global Monetary Growth
Page 14 / October 22, 2020 / Global Monetary Aggregates www.yardeni.com
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89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Z
Sep
JAPAN: M2 PLUS CDs*(yearly percent change)
M2 Plus CDS (9.0)
* In yen.Note: Blue shade is Quantitative Easing Policy.
Z = Zero Interest Rate Policy.
Source: Bank of Japan.
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Figure 24.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Sep
CHINA: MONETARY AGGREGATES*(yearly percent change)
M1 (8.1)M2 (10.9)
* In yuan.Source: China National Bureau of Statistics.
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Figure 25.
Global Monetary Growth
Page 15 / October 22, 2020 / Global Monetary Aggregates www.yardeni.com
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Aug
MONETARY AGGREGATES*: AUSTRALIA(yearly percent change)
M1 (26.1)
M3 (11.8)
* Includes currency in circulation.Source: Reserve Bank of Austrailia.
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Figure 26.
Global Monetary Growth
Page 16 / October 22, 2020 / Global Monetary Aggregates www.yardeni.com
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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Aug
M2 MONETARY AGGREGATES*: GLOBAL**(yearly percent change)
M2 (17.7)
* Include currency in circulation and are computed in US dollars. The individual exchange rate to dollar is based on end of month values.** Global includes China, Euro Area, Japan and United States.
Source: People’s Bank of China, ECB, Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve Board and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 27.
Global M2 Aggregate Growth
Page 17 / October 22, 2020 / Global Monetary Aggregates www.yardeni.com
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