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US Economic Briefing:Consumer Confidence
Yardeni Research, Inc.
June 5, 2020
Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683
Debbie Johnson480-664-1333
Mali Quintana480-664-1333
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
June 5, 2020 / Consumer Confidence www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Consumer Confidence & Sentiment 1-2Consumer Optimism 3Consumer Confidence 4-6Consumer Confidence & Unemployment 7-9Consumer Confidence & Employment 10-12Consumer Confidence By Region 13-15Consumer Optimism Index 16Jobs Plentiful & Wage Inflation 17Consumer Confidence & Wage Inflation 18-21
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
May
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX (1985=100, sa)
Total Index (86.6)Current Conditions (71.1)Expectations (96.9)
Source: The Conference Board.
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Figure 1.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202240
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
May
CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX(Q1-1966=100)
Consumer Sentiment IndexTotal (72.3)Current Conditions (82.3)Expectations (65.9)
Source: University of Michigan Survey Research Center
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Figure 2.
Consumer Confidence & Sentiment
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Figure 3.
67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2320
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
CONSUMER SURVEYS
May
May
Consumer Sentiment Index(Q1-1966=100, nsa)
Consumer Confidence Index(1985=100, sa)
67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 230
50
100
150
200
250
0
50
100
150
200
250
May
CURRENT CONDITIONS
May
Consumer Confidence Index(1985=100, sa)Consumer Sentiment Index(Q1-1966=100, nsa)
67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2320
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
May
EXPECTATIONS
Consumer Sentiment Index(Q1-1966=100, nsa)
Consumer Confidence Index(1985=100, sa)
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: The Conference Board and the University of Michigan Survey Research Center.
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Consumer Confidence & Sentiment
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Figure 4.
67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2320
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX*
May
67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2340
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
May
CURRENT CONDITIONS
67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2330
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
EXPECTATIONS
May
* Average of Consumer Sentiment Index (nsa) and Consumer Confidence Index (sa).Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: The Conference Board and the University of Michigan Survey Research Center.
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Consumer Optimism
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2215
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
105
115
125
135
145
155
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
105
115
125
135
145
155
May
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX(1985=100, sa)
Source: The Conference Board.
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Figure 5.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
May
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX(1985=100, sa)
Current Conditions Component (71.1)Expectations Component (96.9)
Source: The Conference Board.
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Figure 6.
Consumer Confidence
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
May
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX (1985=100, sa)
Total Index (86.6)Current Conditions (71.1)Expectations (96.9)
Source: The Conference Board.
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Figure 7.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
May
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEXES BY AGE GROUPS(1985=100, sa)
Age GroupUnder 35 (78.3)35-54 (89.0)55+ (86.2)
Source: The Conference Board.
Figure 8.
Consumer Confidence
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67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2320
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX*
May
Total (79.5)Current (76.7)Expectations (81.4)
* Average of Consumer Sentiment Index and Consumer Confidence Index.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: The Conference Board and the University of Michigan Survey Research Center.
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Figure 9.
67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 230
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY: JOBS AVAILABILITY(percent saying so)
May
May
Jobs HardTo Get* (27.8)
Jobs Plentiful* (17.4)
* Every other month from 1967 through mid-1977, then monthly since July 1977. Seasonally adjusted.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: The Conference Board.
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Figure 10.
Consumer Confidence
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67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 230
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
May
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY: CURRENT CONDITIONS & JOBS AVAILABILITY
Jobs Plentiful MinusJobs Hard To Get*(percent saying so) (-10.4)
Current Conditions Index (71.1)
* Every other month from 1967 through mid-1977, then monthly since July 1977. Seasonally adjusted.Source: The Conference Board.
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Figure 11.
67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 230
15
30
45
60
75
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Unemployment Rate(percent)
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY: UNEMPLOYMENT RATE & JOBS AVAILABILITY
Jobs Hard To Get*(percent saying so)
May
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
* Every other month from 1967 through mid-1977, then monthly since July 1977. Seasonally adjusted.
Source: The Conference Board and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 12.
Consumer Confidence & Unemployment
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70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 245
10
15
20
25
0
15
30
45
60
75
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE & CONFIDENCE(sa)
May
Jobs Hard To Get(percent saying so)
U-6UnemploymentRate*(percent)
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.* Total unemployed plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons as percent of civilian labor force plus
all attached workers.Source: The Conference Board and US Department of Labor.
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Figure 13.
73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 230
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
100300500700900
1100130015001700190021002300250027002900310033003500370039004100430045004700490051005300550057005900610063006500
Initial Unemployment Claims(thousands, 4-week ma)
5/30
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE & UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS(sa)
Jobs Hard To Get(percent saying so)
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: The Conference Board and US Department of Labor.
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Figure 14.
Consumer Confidence & Unemployment
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67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 230
15
30
45
60
75
100300500700900
1100130015001700190021002300250027002900310033003500370039004100430045004700490051005300550057005900610063006500
5/30
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY: UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS & JOBS AVAILABILITY(sa)
Initial Unemployment Claims(thousands, sa, 4-week ma)
Jobs Hard To Get*(percent saying so)
* Every other month from 1967 through mid-1977, then monthly since July 1977. Seasonally adjusted.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: The Conference Board and US Department of Labor.
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Figure 15.
Consumer Confidence & Unemployment
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Figure 16.
69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23-15
-13
-11
-9
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
40
60
80
100
120
May
EMPLOYMENT & CONSUMER SENTIMENT
Consumer Sentiment Index(Q1-1966=100, nsa)
Payroll Employment(yearly percent change)
69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23-15-14-13-12-11-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-101234567
0
50
100
150
May
EMPLOYMENT & CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
Consumer Confidence Index(1985=100, sa)
Payroll Employment(yearly percent change)
69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
May
EMPLOYMENT & CONSUMER OPTIMISMConsumer Optimism Index*
Payroll Employment(yearly percent change)
* Average of Consumer Sentiment Index (nsa) and Consumer Confidence Index (sa).Source: The Conference Board, University of Michigan Survey Research Center, and US Department of Labor.
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Consumer Confidence & Employment
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 225
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
May
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: EMPLOYMENT EXPECTATIONS(sa)
Percent ExpectingMore Jobs6 Months From Now (39.3)Fewer Jobs6 Months From Now (20.2)
Source: The Conference Board.
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Figure 17.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2220
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
-42
-36
-30
-24
-18
-12
-6
0
6
12
18
24
MayCONSUMER CONFIDENCE: EMPLOYMENT EXPECTATIONS(sa)
Percent Expecting More JobsMinus Percent Expecting Fewer Jobs
Consumer ConfidenceExpectations Index
Source: The Conference Board.
Figure 18.
Consumer Confidence & Employment
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
May
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: BUSINESS CONDITIONS(sa)
Business Conditions6 Months Ahead
BetterWorsenSame
Source: Conference Board.
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Figure 19.
Consumer Confidence & Employment
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Figure 20.
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 230
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
May
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX(1985=100, sa)
New England*
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
May
New England*Current Conditions
Expectations
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2315
30
45
60
75
90
105
120
135
150
May
Middle Atlantic*
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 230
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
May
Middle Atlantic*Current Conditions
Expectations
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2320
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
May
South Atlantic*
* New England (Connecticut, Massachusetts, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Vermont); Middle Atlantic (New Jersey, New York,Pennsylvania); South Atlantic (Delaware, Maryland, Washington DC, Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida).Source: The Conference Board.
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 230
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
May
South Atlantic*Current Conditions
Expectations
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Consumer Confidence By Region
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Figure 21.
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2320
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
May
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX(1985=100, sa)
East North Central*
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 230
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
May
East North Central*Current Conditions
Expectations
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2320
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
May
East South Central*
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 230
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
May
East South Central*Current Conditions
Expectations
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2320
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
May
West North Central*
* East North Central (Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin); East South Central (Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi);West North Central (Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas). Source: The Conference Board.
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 230
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
May
West North Central*Current Conditions
Expectations
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Consumer Confidence By Region
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Figure 22.
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2340
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
May
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX(1985=100, sa)
West South Central*
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2320
35
50
65
80
95
110
125
140
155
170
185
200
215
May
West South Central*Current Conditions
Expectations
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2320
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
May
Mountain*
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 230
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
May
Mountain*Current ConditionsExpectations
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2320
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
May
Pacific*
* West South Central (Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas); Mountain (Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona,Utah, Nevada); Pacific (Washington, Oregon, California, Alaska, Hawaii).Source: The Conference Board.
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 230
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
May
Pacific*Current Conditions
Expectations
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Consumer Confidence By Region
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67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2330
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX*
MayMay
TotalCurrent ConditionsExpectations
* Average of Consumer Sentiment Index (nsa) and Consumer Confidence Index (sa).Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: The Conference Board and the University of Michigan Survey Research Center.
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Figure 23.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
May
May
NFIB: JOB OPENINGS & JOBS PLENTIFUL(sa)
NFIB: Firms with One or MoreJob Openings(12-month average, percent) (33.9)
Jobs Plentiful(percent saying so) (17.4)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and National Federation of Small Business.
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Figure 24.
Consumer Optimism Index
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82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 221.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
MayQ1
ECI WAGES & SALARIES vs JOBS PLENTIFUL(sa)
ECI: Wages & SalariesPrivate Industry(yearly percent change)
Jobs Plentiful*(percent saying so)
* Every other month from 1967 thru mid-1977, monthly data begins in July 1977. Seasonally adjusted.Source: The Conference Board and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 25.
Jobs Plentiful & Wage Inflation
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Figure 26.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Apr
CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES
Consumer Optimism Index (79.5)
Wages & Salaries(yearly percent change (-8.5)
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-10
0
10
20
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
May
Apr
CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES
Consumer Sentiment Index(1966=100) (72.3)
Wages & Salaries(yearly percent change (-8.5)
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
May
Apr
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES
Consumer Confidence Index(1985=100) (86.6)
Wages & Salaries(yearly percent change (-8.5)
Source: University of Michigan, The Conference Board, and Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Consumer Confidence & Wage Inflation
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Figure 27.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
May
Apr
CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES
Consumer Optimism Index:Present Situation (76.7)
Wages & Salaries(yearly percent change (-8.5)
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-10
0
10
20
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
May
Apr
CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES
Consumer Sentiment Index:Current Conditions(1966=100) (82.3)
Wages & Salaries(yearly percent change (-8.5)
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
50
100
150
200
May
Apr
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES
Consumer Confidence Index:Current Conditions(1985=100) (71.1)
Wages & Salaries(yearly percent change (-8.5)
Source: University of Michigan, The Conference Board, and Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Consumer Confidence & Wage Inflation
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Figure 28.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
May
Apr
CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES
Consumer Optimism Index:Expectations (3-ma) (82.3)
Wages & Salaries(yearly percent change (-8.5)
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-10
0
10
20
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
May
CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES
Consumer Sentiment Index:Expectations (3-ma)(1966=100) (71.9)
Wages & Salaries(yearly percent change (-8.5)
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
May
Apr
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES
Consumer Confidence Index:Expectations (3-ma)(1985=100) (92.7)
Wages & Salaries(yearly percent change (-8.5)
Source: University of Michigan, The Conference Board, and Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Consumer Confidence & Wage Inflation
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CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX & PAYROLL EMPLOYMENTPresent Situation Component(1985=100, sa) (71.1)
Payroll Employment(yearly percent change) (-11.7)
Source: The Conference Board and US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 29.
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CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX & HOUSEHOLD EMPLOYMENTPresent Situation Component(1985=100, sa) (71.1)
Household Employment(yearly percent change) (-12.5)
Source: The Conference Board and US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 30.
Consumer Confidence & Wage Inflation
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