Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for ... · Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Quality of Life and Productivity Quality

Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for Fremtidsforskning

Niels Bøttger-Rasmussen, [email protected]

Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

Bilbao 3. and 4. november 2008

Youth-policy in Denmark


TheThe Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesCopenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

• Founded in 1970 by Thorkil Kristensen• Memberbased

– 130 members in Europe• Neutral• 25 researchers/futurists

MegatrendsScenariosWildcards


No No formal formal youth policyyouth policy in Denmarkin Denmark

– Youth as a transitional phase ? – Youth as a socialisation phase ?– Youth as a period for struggle for social

status?– Youth as a period with a value of its own?


ProblemsProblems--explanationsexplanations--solutionssolutions• BAC and Nordic countries faces the same

problems– Aging society– Shortage of labour– Globalisation

• Immigrant policy and integration• Global competition

– Polarisation• Financial• Values etc.

• Challenges differ in in scale and scope


EU 25 population EU 25 population projection projection 20072007--20172017

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0-4

5-9

10-

14

15-

19

20-

24

25-

29

30-

34

35-

39

40-

44

45-

49

50-

54

55-

59

60-

64

65-

69

70-

74

75-

79 80+

%

Source: Eurostat 2007. Baseline Varianthttp://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu


Demographic trendsDemographic trendsUnder 14 Over 65

1995 2005 1995 2005

BAC 13.3 11.5 15.1 19.3

Sweden 18.9 17.6 17.4 17.3

Finland 19.1 17.5 15.3 15.0

Denmark 17.3 18.8 15.3 15.0


ChallengesChallenges BACBAC• Low fertility • Moderate participation in workforce

– Women– Young people

• Mobility and flexibility• Cohesion


Problems Problems -- explanationsexplanations -- solutionssolutions

• Barriers to fertility– Practical and economic burdens and risks for

families– Structural reasons (housing, lack of childcare etc.)– Values and gender roles

• Barriers to participation in workforce – Women (obligations to other family members)– Young people – late emancipation etc.

• Relatively low mobility• Relatively high inequality


Employment rate females, 2006Employment rate females, 2006

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

BAC

Denmark

Finland

Sweden

Source: EUSTAT, 2007


Problems Problems –– explanationsexplanations -- solutionssolutions

• Does the Nordic model offer solutions?– ”Copy/page” of course not a possibility– Traditions and cultures differ– Centuries/decades of development, adjustment

and fine-tuning of complex and integratedprograms

– A package: you can not ”pick and choose”– Mutual inspiration is worthwhile


Quality of Life and Quality of Life and ProductivityProductivity

Quality of life, (scale 1-10), 2006 Labor producivity, (GDP/employee), 2005

Placering Land Gns. Placering Land US$ 1 Iceland 9,41 3 Iceland 101.2112 Denmark 9,36 4 Denmark 94.8003 Norway 9,34 1 Norway 127.9464 Finland 8,73 8 Finland 80.35966 SSwweeddeenn 88,,5588 66 SSwweeddeenn 8877..2233444 Germany 8,73 12 Germany 71.9247 Netherlands 8,42 10 Netherlands (2004) 76.2478 Ireland 8,32 2 Ireland 102.4899 USA 8,29 5 USA 88.105

10 France 8,20 7 France 84.42511 Spain 7,47 14 Spain 59.20812 United Kingdom 7,14 11 United Kingdom (2004) 74.991 13 Japan 6,90 9 Italy 78.02814 Italy 6,73 13 Japan 71,864

Kilde: IMD


Fertility Fertility rates, rates, percentagepercentage 20062006

1,31,31,31,31,3

1,41,6

1,81,81,8

1,91,9

22,9

4,85,6

6,86,9

1,2

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

BACSpainItaly

GreecePolandJapan

PortugalChina

DenmarkSwedenNorway

IrlandFrance

USAIndiaIraq

PalestinaAfghanisSomalia

Ref.:Population Reference Bureau, 2006


All birthsAll births –– avarage avarage age age of mothers of mothers (Denmark)(Denmark)

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Age

YearDanmarks StatistikDanmarks Statistik


0 20 40 60 80

806040200

Around 1950

Around 2010

Dep

ende

nt

Inde

pend

ent

Free

1

Pare

nts

Free

II

Elde

rly

Life Phases – global trends

Age

Age


TheThe freefree I I onesones(20(20--30+ 30+ yearsyears))

• ” I've got no strings to hold me”• ”Everything is possible”

– Selvrealisation, mobility, city-nomades, experience the world

• The pursuit of happiness, the perfect match– Education, job, partner……….. – Eksperiments

• Try oneself out/find yourself• ”Stepstones” rather than possible ”dead ends”• Lifestyles and subcultures

• ”Global” networks” – cyberspace + ”meatspace”


Reasons Reasons for for avoiding parenthoodavoiding parenthood. . Europe Europe Childless people aged Childless people aged 1818--3939

25%Don´t want a child25%Too old32%Prefer leisure time33%Job pressures33%Concern about health37%Wouldn´t enjoy life38%Expense44%Enjoy current lifestyle46%No steady partner48%Concern about the future

Newsweek. 2006


0

50

100

150

200

250

1907

1917

1927

1937

1947

1957

1967

1977

1987

1997

2005

2007

15-19 år20-24 år25-29 år30-34 år35-39 år40-44 år45-49 år

Fertility Fertility –– birthsbirths pr. 1000 pr. 1000 women women in age in age groups groups (DK)(DK)

ModernisationIndustrialisation


Source: Paris Match, 12. juli 2001, s. 74

”In 2013 it will benormal”Dr. Vicken Sahakian from Pacific FertilityCenter i LA

Jeanine 62. With twins

Worlds oldest mother Adriana Iliescu (67)


EmancipationEmancipation--howhow• Going abroad/travelling/”a sabbath year”

– ”Young danes spend 4 years ”more than necessary” to complete their final education!”

• Responsibilities and jobs and in a young age• Alternatives to living with parents• Practical and economic barriers to start (a family) on

your own, if lack of:– affordable housing – (parttime) jobs– affordable childcare– public benefits (student and parents)


Share of Share of ””childrenchildren”” 1818--30 30 years old years old living with parents living with parents (Denmark)(Denmark)

17,5

18

18,5

19

19,5

20

20,5

21

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

Perc

enta

ge

Ref.: Danmarks Statistik


Young Young people living with parents people living with parents (Denmark)(Denmark)

0102030405060708090

100

15år

16år

17år

18år

19år

20år

21år

22år

23år

24år

25år

26år

27år

28år

29år

30år

Perc

enta

ge

19912001

Ref.: Danmarks Statistik


Share of people renting their homeShare of people renting their home

0102030405060708090

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90-94

95+

Years

Perc

enta

ge

Ref: SBI 2008


Copenhagen Copenhagen –– thethe city city ofof thethe youngyoung

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

0 år

4 år

8 år

12 å

r16

år

20 å

r24

år

28 å

r32

år

36 å

r40

år

44 å

r48

år

52 å

r56

år

60 å

r64

år

68 å

r72

år

76 å

r80

år

84 å

r88

år

92 å

r96

år

Perc

enta

ge

City of Copenhagen Denmark


Housing ownershipHousing ownership--structurestructure (DK)(DK)

• Privately occupied and owned: 53%• Rental (privately owned): 20%• Rental (collectively owned): 27%

– ”Social” housing: 20%– Cooperative housing: 7%


Share of young people Share of young people living living in in rental rental homes homes has has increasedincreased (Denmark(Denmark

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1990 1995 2000 2005 2006

30-64 years25-29 years20-24 years

Ref: SBI, 2008


Housing Housing for for young people young people (Denmark)(Denmark)• Many small rental flats in university towns• Cooperative housing • Rents in old houses are regulated (price ceiling) • Co-housing in big flats (2,3,4 students)• Affordable youth housing (part of social

housing)• Students houses (30.000 rooms)• Parent buying a flat and renting it to children

(tax incentive)


Housing Housing for for young peopleyoung people• New construction:

– Quotas to promote renatl housing etc.? • Property ”bust” – a chance to set up housing

associations (subsidised by government or sponsored by companies)?

• Company sponsored (attract young talent)

Tietgenkollegiet


A A complete welfare packagecomplete welfare package ((NorwayNorway))




Four welfare state Four welfare state modelsmodelsNordic model• Same services to all in the state• Scandinavia• Socialdemocratic

Beveridge model•Services only to the worst off•UK/US•Liberal

Bismarck model•Services to those who have been in the labor market•Central Europe•Conservative

Subsidiarity model•Social issues to be solved as close to the family as possible

•Southern Europe•Church play a large role


““There is no such thing as a free lunchThere is no such thing as a free lunch””Tax Pressure, % of GDPTax Pressure, % of GDP

43,7%

50,7%

44%

50,4%

32,6%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

BAC

Denmark

Finland

Sweden

Norway

Source: OECD, 2005 & Churiaque, 2005


Youth Youth and and welfare welfare (Denmark)(Denmark)

• The economic and practical burden and risks of raising children are moderate– Youth unemployment is low– Benefits from government are generous

• To students• To parents

• Income distribution is relativily flat– Overall– In relation to age


IncomeInequality

Earnings mobility

HighLow

High

Earnings mobility Earnings mobility and and income inequalityincome inequality

Re: OECD, 2008


IncomeIncome progression and ageprogression and age::Which Which is is the the most most ””reproduction friendlyreproduction friendly””??

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

ModernTraditional


Student Student benefitsbenefits

Grant+loan (no job)11.000Total incl. loan

Mother: Study-loansFather: 15 hours work pr. week

20.5002 students, one child, net of tax

+ 800Each parent studiing

3-6 years old7-17 years old: 1.300 euros

1.800Per child allowance(all mothers)

4 pct. interest after examen4.100Student loan

1/2 allowance, if living with parents Own income up to 10.200 allowed without reductionIncome net of tax if 15 hours of work per week: 13.000 euros (grant+salary)

6.900Student grantNet of tax

CommentsYearly Euro


3.200First year salary, school teacher per month4.000Last year salary, school teacher per month

45%Tax rate (income from 4.500 to 45.000 euros)250Student house, 20 m2, monthly400Flat, two rooms, 60 m2, Copenhagen, monthly0.9Milk, 1 liter2,4Bus ticket, city15Typical student salary per hour:

EurosPrices and salaries, DK


ParentsParents//careercareer(30(30--55 55 yearsyears))

• ”The many strings that holds me”– Fredom is curtailed

• Time pressure/economic pressure• Both work fulltime• Project ”the happy family”• ”Project home”• Dad want to be DAD• Challenge: Balance

– family, study/career, me


52322144Benefitsweeks

TotalTo sharebetween parents

FatherMotherMother

TotalAfter birthBefore birth

Maternity leave Maternity leave and and benefitsbenefits((if working fultimeif working fultime))

•Benefit per month: 2030 euros (minimum)


DayDay--care care and and kindergartenkindergarten

• A public welfare service• Up to 25 percent own payment• Free for low income families (f.ex.

students)


Share of children attending dayShare of children attending day--care care kindergarten kindergarten and and youth clubsyouth clubs, (Denmark), (Denmark)

Ref.: Danish Government, 2006


Danish Danish youth are both workingyouth are both working and and studiingstudiing

2234

59

4341

1624

17 98 5 11

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

18-21 years 22-25 years 26-29 years

Perc

enta

ge

Other

Studiing only

Studiing & working

Working parttime

Working fultime

Re.:Nordea, 200810% more then 20 hours weekly26% more than 15 hours weekly


Share of school children also working Share of school children also working (13(13--17 17 yearsyears oldold))

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

13 years 14 years 15 years 16 years 17 years

Perc

enta

ge

Most work 1-10 hours weekly

13 % of 17 years old work more than 10 hoursRef.: Nordea


TheThe ””independentindependent”” youngyoung(12(12--19 19 yearsyears))• ”Self-reliant” (but also more protected?) • More complex and ”dangerous” world• ”Social & individualistic”• Identity is important• Lifestyle comsumption, brands • Social medias, games

Copenhagen Institute for Futures StudiesInstituttet for FremtidsforskningLife isLife is full of choicesfull of choices……

But But whichwhich roadroad to to choosechoose??

Documents

Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for ... · Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Quality of Life and Productivity Quality