12
All details given in good faith but without guarantee Deep Sea Tankers +44 (0)20 7535 2626 Dry Cargo Chartering +44 (0)20 7535 2666 Container Chartering +44 (0)20 7535 2867 Weekly Chartering Report Braemar Seascope Thursday, 08 December 2011 Market Indicator Wet 07-Dec-11 Nov Avg Avg YTD 2010 Avg TCE (US$/Day) TCE (US$/Day) TCE (US$/Day) TCE (US$/Day) 260,000 NHC AG/EAST TD3 11,500 12,000 8,000 40,500 130,000 NHC WAFR/USAC TD5 9,000 8,000 11,000 24,000 80,000 NHC UK/CONT TD7 8,000 4,500 11,500 19,000 55,000 CLN AG/JAPAN TC5 2,500 2,000 5,500 9,500 37,000 CLN CONT/USAC TC2 12,000 8,500 11,000 12,000 38,000 CLN CARIB/USAC TC3 9,000 11,000 10,000 8,500 Dry 07-Dec-11 Nov Avg Avg YTD 2010 Avg BDI 1,849 2,072 1,532 2,758 BCI 3,405 3,391 2,169 3,480 BPI 1,687 1,968 1,750 3,115 BSI 1,278 1,564 1,386 1,365 Container 05-Dec-11 Nov Avg Avg YTD 2010 Avg B O X i 63.19 64.82 87.72 63.83 Financial 07-Dec-11 Nov Avg Avg YTD 2010 Avg BRENT CRUDE US$/bbl 109.50 110.34 110.85 79.49 IFO 380 ROTT US$/mt 630.50 645.80 618.33 449.24 YEN/US$ 77.69 77.52 79.80 87.70 WON/US$ 1,130 1,135 1,104 1,155 US$/EURO 1.34 1.36 1.40 1.33 US$/STERLING 1.57 1.58 1.61 1.55 GOLD /US$ 1,745 1,745 1,571 1,224

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Page 1: Container Thursday, 08 December 2011 Financialfiles.irwebpage.com/reports/shipping/0vbkwB5MWe... · 2016. 3. 16. · ring Braemar Seascope Weekly Chartering Report 3 08/12/2011 It

All details given in good faith but without guarantee Deep Sea Tankers +44 (0)20 7535 2626 Dry Cargo Chartering +44 (0)20 7535 2666 Container Chartering +44 (0)20 7535 2867

W

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kly

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epo

rt

Braemar Seascope Thursday, 08 December 2011

Market Indicator Wet 07-Dec-11 Nov Avg Avg YTD 2010 Avg

TCE ( US $ / Da y ) TCE ( US $ / Da y ) TCE ( US $ / Da y ) TCE ( US $ / Da y )

260,000 NHC AG/EAST TD3 11,500 12,000 8,000 40,500

130,000 NHC WAFR/USAC TD5 9,000 8,000 11,000 24,000

80,000 NHC UK/CONT TD7 8,000 4,500 11,500 19,000

55,000 CLN AG/JAPAN TC5 2,500 2,000 5,500 9,500

37,000 CLN CONT/USAC TC2 12,000 8,500 11,000 12,000

38,000 CLN CARIB/USAC TC3 9,000 11,000 10,000 8,500

Dry 07-Dec-11 Nov Avg Avg YTD 2010 Avg

BDI 1,849 2,072 1,532 2,758

BCI 3,405 3,391 2,169 3,480

BPI 1,687 1,968 1,750 3,115

BSI 1,278 1,564 1,386 1,365

Container 05-Dec-11 Nov Avg Avg YTD 2010 Avg

B O X i 63.19 64.82 87.72 63.83

Financial 07-Dec-11 Nov Avg Avg YTD 2010 Avg

BRENT CRUDE US$/bbl 109.50 110.34 110.85 79.49

IFO 380 ROTT US$/mt 630.50 645.80 618.33 449.24

YEN/US$ 77.69 77.52 79.80 87.70

WON/US$ 1,130 1,135 1,104 1,155

US$/EURO 1.34 1.36 1.40 1.33

US$/STERLING 1.57 1.58 1.61 1.55

GOLD /US$ 1,745 1,745 1,571 1,224

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VLCC There has been some interesting developments in the market as a whole this week. We had confirmation of the early shutting down of the Sunoco Marcus Hook refinery. This is mainly supplied by West African crude on Suezmax ves-sels so may not directly affect VLCCs, however it is quite likely that at least some of this additional West African crude will be diverted to the East on VLCCs. We also had the EU attempting to further sideline Iran by limiting its oil imports to the area. Sometimes such threats by politicians, when more closely assessed, only confirm the uncomfortable truth that most of southern Europe's refineries require Iranian crude, to the tune of approximately 215m barrels last year. To replace this would be difficult and expensive: furthermore the crude contracts would quickly find a home in India or China, never to be seen again. The VLCC market this week has been steady but softer. Owners have managed to keep freight rates roughly where they have been since last week at 270kt x ws58.0 for AG/East and 280kt x ws38 for AG/US Gulf. The market has been busy , 41 reported fixtures over the week, which has been to owners' advantage. However, they have not been able to increase rates due to the incessant availability of tonnage. West Africa has again been subdued with the only reports being W.Africa/China fixed 260kt x ws57.5 which is slightly softer than last week's rate assessment and in line with W Africa/US Gulf rates. Most of these cargoes have once again been covered on Suemzax tonnage, the market for which remains relatively weak. Two cargoes were fixed by Indian charterers this week. BPCL entered for W Africa/WC India off 6-7 January and managed to fix at US$3.45m. Reliance fixed an oil company relet on the W Africa/WC India route off end December laycan at US$3.3m. However, the lower rate can be justified on the basis that the cargo was an Angola load only and had no NMA fees of approxi-mately US$200,000. We are assessing W Africa/WC India is at US$3.5m and W Africa/EC India is at US$3.75m. The 30 day availability index shows 46 vessels which include nine vessels which are 15 years old or older and two newbuildings, compared to last week's total of 56. So far, 120 cargoes have been fixed for December. Perhaps we are in for another bumper month of AG VLCC fixing. The freight rate for 280,000mt AG/US Gulf is ws38, ws0.5 points less than last week. With bunkers at US$688/tonne, down US$2.5/tonne from last week, owners' earnings are: Double Hull: US$-4,100/day (US$-3,500/day last week) The freight rate for 270,000mt AG/East is ws58.0, down ws2.0 from last week, owners' earnings are: Double Hull: US$17,500/day (US$20,000/day last week)

Route Size Load Discharge Today’s Assessment Last Week’s Average

TD1 280,000 Ras Tanura LOOP ws38.0 ws38.0

TD2 265,000 Ras Tanura Singapore ws58.0 ws58.5

TD3 265,000 Ras Tanura Chiba ws58.0 ws58.5

TD4 260,000 Bonny LOOP ws60.0 ws61.0

TD15 260,000 West Africa China ws57.5 ws59.0

China46%

India10%

Korea/Japan23%

Spore/Indo3%

USA14%

S Africa4%

VLCC AG Weekly Spot Fixtures by VolumeIntended Discharge (30th Nov - 7th Dec 2011)

Long East60%

Short East23%

West17%

VLCC AG Monthly Spot Fixtures by VolumeFinal Destination (November 2011)

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It was a bit of a rollercoaster ride in West Africa this week, following the highs of last week. You could say the writing was on the wall on Thursday of last week, with ws87.5 being fixed to UKC-Med. The rates continued on their downward path into this week and each new fixture brought a further drop as the availability of tonnage on the list took its toll. In the early part of this week, rates hit a low of ws71.25 for a US Gulf run. This proved to be the bottom and the rates re-bounded (albeit slowly) from there. During the middle part of what was expected to be a quiet week, levels of activity ramped up sufficiently for market to turn upwards in earnest. On Wednesday we saw 11 West Africa fixtures and al-though rates did not move much we hit a peak of ws80.0 for UKC-Med. This completed the majority of the December dates, although it is estimated that there are approximately ten cargoes left for the balance of the month. With the levels of activity seen, the rate rises are maybe a touch disappointing. Next week we should see the completion of December dates, which potentially may lead to a quiet week with charterers fixed so far forward. Again West Africa led the way this week and Mediterranean charterers quietly fixed the December Black Sea program. The four remaining cargoes from last week were covered at the end of last week/beginning of this week and this led to a relatively quiet start to the week. There was a single Black Sea cargo that was left a little bit late, but the added pres-sure that comes with early dates only led to the charterers fixing ws89.0. Working in owners’ favour was the continued action in West Africa which was taking a number of ships out of the market. This led to the few remaining Med cargoes meeting a bit of resistance. The Turkish straits delays were reduced (by only a day) this week, which lengthened the tonnage list slightly. Moving towards the end of the week, the aframax market was showing a bit of bounce and with rumours of 80kt x ws140.0 being fixed, this prorates to 135kt x ws86.0, which is the same rate at which the suezmaxes have been fixing. This may yet put some more pressure on the shortening list and possibly lead to an increase in rates. The suezmax market cannot be held up solely by the aframax market, so owners will be hoping to see some suezmax action next week. It has been a very quiet week in the eastern markets. We have seen a single Indian fixture where the charterers took a lower quality ship at ws72.0. Charterers managed to steady the ship in the VLCC market and this was the major force over the suezmaxes. The list is not hugely long, although it is not full of the highest quality tonnage. The AG/East mar-ket remains untested, but with the lack of activity it is expected that rates will come out at around ws77.5. This is obvi-ously a drop from last week, which reflects the lack of activity. Next week it will be the VLCC market that drives the su-ezmax eastern market as always, but it will need a dramatic rate increase to positively influence the suezmax market.

Suezmax

USA42%

NW Europe50%

Med/Red Sea8%

Suezmax WAFR Weekly Spot Fixtures by VolumeIntended Discharge (30th Nov - 7th Dec 2011)

Route Size Load Discharge Today’s Assessment Last Week’s Average

TD5 130,000 Bonny Philadelphia ws80.0 ws78.5

TD6 135,000 Novorossiysk Augusta ws87.5 ws85.5

135,000 Mediterranean UK Cont ws85.0 ws82.5

135,000 North Sea US Gulf ws77.5 ws77.5

135,000 Ras Tanura South East Asia ws77.5 ws82.5

W Africa42%

Med/Red Sea11%

Black Sea26%

Caribs/EC Mex14%

AG4%

USA3%

Suezmax Weekly Spot Fixtures by VolumeLoad Area (30th Nov - 7th Dec 2011)

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Aframax

It is party week here in London this week as well as in New York, and one would have thought it would be quieter than normal considering many people are getting in to the festive spirit. It was looking like it was heading that way up until mid-week when aframax rates started to move upwards in North West Europe, Baltic and Mediterranean. On the back of the Mediterranean firming significantly and rates being stagnant in recent weeks, an influx of cross-North Sea car-goes hit the market. As many as six in one day were in the market and ultimately owners managed to push rates up to last done 80kt x ws125.0. This was a ws30.0 point difference from this time last week, equating to approximately US$25,000/day. In the Baltic, charterers have continued to cover Primorsk stems, some of these for forward dates. With the influx, owners have been reluctant to fix away their ships, preferring to hold off and watch what happens. Currently, 100kt x ws95.0 is rumoured to be on subs but this is yet to be confirmed. This week in the Mediterranean and Black Sea, we have seen the sentiment change from flat and stable to firming and strong. This was first spurred by an increase in Turkish strait delays, which led to replacement and forward fixing. This increased activity and hype in the market. Added to this was a sizeable amount of enquiry which helped stimulate owners’ bullish ideas. As a result, fixing levels have climbed from 80kt x ws82.5-85.0 to last reported at 80kt x ws145.0. Another defining factor in helping Mediterranean rates firm was the increased demand from West Africa which drew away some tonnage. At present we anticipate rates will climb further, but as we have seen so often in recent history, will ultimately depend on what happens with Turkish strait delays and whether the level of supply and demand continues. There has been a lack of activity this week over in the Caribbean, which has continued since returning to the market after the Thanksgiving holiday period. The lack of demand has seen rates slide back down to 70kt x ws100.0 level, which we expect to move sideways for the short term.

NW Europe37%

Med/Red Sea43%

USA3%

India East13%

Black Sea2%

Australia2%

Aframax (West of Suez) Weekly Spot FixturesIntended Discharge Area (30th Nov - 7th Dec 2011)

Baltic35%

N Africa/E Med45%

Black Sea10%

UK Cont5%

W Africa5%

Aframax (West of Suez) Weekly Spot FixturesLoad Area (30th Nov - 7th Dec 2011)

Route Size Load Discharge Today’s Assessment Last Week’s Average

TD7 80,000 Sullom Voe Wilhelmshaven ws110.0 ws101.0

TD8 80,000 Mina Al Ahmadi Singapore ws115.0 ws115.0

TD9 70,000 Puerto La Cruz Corpus Christi ws100.0 ws101.5

TD14 80,000 Seria Sydney ws105.0 ws103.0

TD17 100,000 Primorsk Wilhelmshaven ws80.0 ws76.5

TD19 80,000 Ceyhan Lavera ws145.0 ws109.5

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ary

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Se

p

Oc

t

No

v

De

c

US

$/D

ay

TD3 - 260 - Ras Tanura - Chiba TCE

2009

2010

2011

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Se

p

Oc

t

No

v

De

c

US

$/D

ay

TD5 - 130 - Bonny - Philadelphia TCE

2009

2010

2011

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Se

p

Oc

t

No

v

De

c

US

$/D

ay

TD7 - 80 - Sullom Voe - Wilhelmshaven TCE

2009

2010

2011

-5,000

5,000

15,000

25,000

35,000

45,000

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Se

p

Oc

t

No

v

De

c

US

$/D

ay

TD9 - 70 Puerto La Cruz- Corpus Christi TCE

2009

2010

2011

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The week started poorly for the LR2 market although there were several enquiries for gasoil stems to move west. Char-terers are becoming increasingly determined to have a Singapore option and it appears that some ships fixed in the last few weeks may end up only performing shorter voyages than they hoped for. In the meantime there was some good news west of Suez as the naphtha arbitrage finally opened up to the East, which saw 3-4 ships picked off from the Medi-terranean. However, the build up of tonnage in the region meant that rate were unable to make any gain from the activity. LR1s fared pretty badly this week. It has been much quieter than recent weeks and as such we've now seen rates for AG/Japan slip quietly from ws125.0 (and a bit) to ws120.0 at time of writing. Some stems remain for December, but we fear that all the Korean/Japanese naphtha requirements are now covered. There are a few west cargoes remaining in the market, but otherwise it appears that the market is already settling down for the Christmas period. MRs have been slow this week. The last two weeks of heightened excitement has relapsed as there has not been the volume to support rates. The naphtha fixing window has moved into last decade December. E Africa and S Africa enquiry has been few and far between with only a couple of traders with stems, but nothing firm. Short hauls have ticked along with rates looking 'OK' in the scheme of things. The outlook is soft, and owners know it.

CP

P C

hart

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Clean Products - East

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Se

p

Oc

t

No

v

De

c

US

$/D

ay

TC1 - 75 - Ras Tanura - Yokohama TCE

2009

2010

2011

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Se

p

Oc

t

No

v

De

c

US

$/D

ay

TC5 - 55 - Ras Tanura - Yokohama TCE

2009

2010

2011

Route Size Load Discharge Today’s Assessment Last Week’s Average

TC1 75,000 Ras Tanura Yokohama ws102.5 ws102.5

TC5 55,000 Ras Tanura Yokohama ws120.0 ws121.0

TC4 30,000 Singapore Chiba ws155.0 ws156.0

TC12 35,000 WC India Japan ws164.5 ws167.0

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Braemar Seascope Weekly Chartering Report 7

08/12/2011

CP

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Clean Products - West

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Se

p

Oc

t

No

v

De

c

US

$/D

ay

TC2 - 37 - Rotterdam - New York TCE

2009

2010

2011

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Se

p

Oc

t

No

v

De

c

US

$/D

ay

TC3 - 38 - Aruba - New York TCE

2009

2010

2011

Route Size Load Discharge Today’s Assessment Last Week’s Average

TC2 37,000 Rotterdam New York ws167.5 ws163.5

TC3 38,000 Aruba New York ws150.0 ws151.5

TC6 30,000 Skikda Lavera ws177.5 ws176.0

There was a good amount of activity for the first three days of this week and a number of ships were fixed. The ton-nage is thin out until around the 20th and rates are firm up to the high 37kt x ws160s. Rates had ended last week at the ws160.0 level. There was more activity than usual on Monday, owners were able to maintain momentum and push rates towards the mid/high ws160s. At that stage rates did seem poised to punch up to and above 37kt x ws170.0. However, a very much larger than expected gasoline build yesterday (5.1 mbbls vs 1.0 mbbls estimated). Coupled with charterers deciding to sit tight on barrels out beyond the 20th has led to a stalling in rates at 37kt x ws167.5. There is a likelihood that nothing much more will be done this week, unless a last minute replacement job is needed. Looking forward into next week, the tonnage situation is nominally easier beyond the 20 th. There is a bal-ance to be struck is between charterers who, because of a short fixing month, will be under pressure to fix stems earlier than they might otherwise have liked to, and owners who will be trying to push things as much as is possible, without overplaying their hand and being the one left standing when the music stops around Christmas time. So it will be interesting to see whether owners have the confidence to build on this week’s momentum, or are faced with the chance of sitting idle for ten days over Christmas and New Year. Will they take the path of least resistance? A reasonably active week in the inter-Med market has caused rates firm from 30kt x ws175.0 towards ws185.0. Own-ers are finally gaining enough traction and confidence to give rates a decent nudge. Trans-Atlantic activity has been muted but lack of tonnage in the western Med suggests that finding ships for loading ex Skikda over the next 10/12 days will be problematic. With parties in New York this week, the Caribbean market has been fairly static. The two headline rates are largely unmoved thus far. Caribs/USAC remains at 38kt x ws150.0 and back haul holding at 38kt x ws110.0.

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Braemar Seascope Weekly Chartering Report 8

The capesize market finished the end of last week on a firm tone, largely driven by a week of very active W Australia fixing. A quiet start to this week gave the impression rates had got ahead of themselves, and a slight downward correction was apparent in the little fixing that was done. Activity picked up on Tuesday, with rates hovering in the low US$12s/tonne for the W Australia/China run and it remains to be seen whether demand will continue to give rates another push. At the time of writing there is still a positive feel in the market, with US$30,000/day being concluded for a Pa-cific RV. The Atlantic has remained steady, with the trans-Atlantic rate hovering around the US$30,000/day mark. There are still a few December front hauls to be covered, and these have been reported fixed at around US$$30.00, with a number of vessels asking over this. On the short period front, a strong US$20,000/day was reported on a 170,000 dwt (00) type vessel open N China. However, on the whole period fixing has remained fairly limited.

Capesize

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

0

25,000

50,000

75,000

100,000

125,000

01

-Ja

n-0

9

01

-Ap

r-0

9

01

-Ju

l-0

9

01

-Oc

t-0

9

01

-Ja

n-1

0

01

-Ap

r-1

0

01

-Ju

l-1

0

01

-Oc

t-1

0

01

-Ja

n-1

1

01

-Ap

r-1

1

01

-Ju

l-1

1

01

-Oc

t-1

1

BC

I

US

$/d

ay

The Baltic Capesize Index vs Atlantic & Pacific Earnings

Atlantic Pacific BCI

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In the Pacific, the Christmas holiday lull is biting further and business conditions have continued to slow, with much of owners' focus on securing sufficient employment duration to see their vessels past the holiday period. Charterers' ideas for short Indonesian coal trips are at unexciting levels of around mid-US$8,000/day to low-US$9,000/day levels, but despite these sub-US$10,000/day ideas, some owners are willing to discuss such business in order to find tempo-rary cover and re-position their vessel for the early part of next year. The outlook for the remainder of the year is still flat/negative.

In the Atlantic, conditions remain similar to the previous week with limited trans-Atlantic movements. Front haul rates have held up slightly due to the reluctance of owners to send their vessels to the Far East, but much of these cargoes now seem to have been covered and conditions on this route could change once the ballasters from the Pacific start appearing in the market.

Braemar Seascope Weekly Chartering Report 9

Panamax

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

01

-Ja

n-0

9

01

-Ap

r-0

9

01

-Ju

l-0

9

01

-Oc

t-0

9

01

-Ja

n-1

0

01

-Ap

r-1

0

01

-Ju

l-1

0

01

-Oc

t-1

0

01

-Ja

n-1

1

01

-Ap

r-1

1

01

-Ju

l-1

1

01

-Oc

t-1

1

BP

I

US

$/d

ay

The Baltic Panamax Index vs Atlantic & Pacific Earnings

Atlantic Pacific BPI

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08/12/2011

Braemar Seascope Weekly Chartering Report 10

The Far East market rates continue to plummet with an excess tonnage capacity on both handy and supramax sized vessels. Rates for either trips or voyages back to the Atlantic and the US Gulf are hotly contested with voyage equiva-lents at bunkers only. There remains very little visible upside until the end of the Chinese New Year, leaving some very concerned owners and operators trying to plan their positioning over the holiday period. There is talk of lay-ups becom-ing a real option at this time. After a brief respite at the beginning of the week, the India and Far East market declined once more. Rates for handy stems stand around the US$10-11 mark for voyage business from Indonesia to China, India at the US$12.50-13 level. The Continent market for handysize vessels has softened this week as we have seen a reasonable amount of new ton-nage coming open. Trips to EC S America and US Gulf are seeing numbers around US$9,000/day and trips to the Far East in the high teens to low US$20s. The Continent handymax and supramax market has also softened over the last few days compared to the firm rates and activity from the previous week, as tonnage supply decreases, matching the slowdown in demand. Scrap rates on handymaxes have been reported to fix at US$18,000/day levels to East Med, and with owners trying fix their ships ear-lier in order for them to be employed over the Christmas holidays, charterers are able to squeeze lower levels. In the Black Sea, after a quiet start of the week, pressure is mounting again for larger Goa traders able to make the Black Sea prior to Christmas, mainly due to urea cargoes being shipped into India as part of a 250kt urea tender awarded recently. Fewer ships are willing to ballast into the Med/Black Sea from WC India/AG as the market is improv-ing there with more iron ore available for loading. All this is pushing rates up for large supramaxes and we will see rates again climbing to low-mid US$30,000s/day for quick trips to India. On the other hand, the lack of steel is affecting handymax and handysizes, which are relying almost entirely on grain trade. Handysize rates from EC S America back to the Continent have been fixed in the mid teens basis Recalada, and simi-lar rates to W Africa. There have been a significant amount of orders to the Med region. A number of US Gulf tonnages redelivering in the East took advantage of pet coke stems to achieve strong numbers this week. Supramaxes of all shapes and sizes continued to see good numbers to the Far East, with a good balance of orders and positions remaining to be covered for this year. A 58,000 dwt ship has been reported earning US$34,000/day to the Far East. UKC/Med direction started to soften following the index, but there seems to be good resistance towards the end of the week, as 52,000 dwt and 55,000 dwt vessels have both have earned US$26,000-26,500/day levels to the Med.

Handy/Handymax/Supramax

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

01

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9

01

-Ap

r-0

9

01

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l-0

9

01

-Oc

t-0

9

01

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n-1

0

01

-Ap

r-1

0

01

-Ju

l-1

0

01

-Oc

t-1

0

01

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n-1

1

01

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1

01

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01

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BS

I

US

$/d

ay

The Baltic Supramax Index vs Atlantic & Pacific Earnings

Atlantic Pacific BSI

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Braemar Seascope Weekly Chartering Report 11

08/12/2011

China suspends iron ore production Close to half of China’s iron ore miners have suspended production due to the low price of higher grade imported iron ore. Chinese steel makers said that prices for imported iron ore have decreased by around 30% in October, making it a more attractive option. According to the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics, the suspension of iron ore production in China came after the country mined around 946m tonnes of the resource in the first nine months of 2011, an increase of 24.5% y-o-y.

China steel mills put pressure on miners It has been reported by China Steel (based in Taiwan) that Vale has agreed to reduce its iron ore price by 20% to 25% for the fourth quarter. This compares to the 10% price discount that Vale suggested they would offer earlier in the year. The substantial discount by Vale follows the 31% slump in iron ore prices in October, which prompted steel mills to seek a pricing mechanism which more closely reflected spot rates. Currently, China Steel is also in talks with Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton.

Record winter crop in Western Australia Due to a vast harvest in the west and robust production in the eastern states of Australia it is likely that this years’ harvest will reach close to 43.5m tonnes. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics Sciences (ABARES) expects the winter crop, mainly wheat and barley, to be up 2.2% y-o-y and just above the previous re-cord of 43.39m tonnes in 2003-04.

India expected to cease shipping iron ore to China An executive at one of India’s biggest iron ore producers expects that India will stop shipping ore to China in as little as five years. The nation currently exports around 100m tonnes of iron ore to China each year. This will open the door for Australia to export more of its iron ore to the traditional markets of China and Japan as India moves to feed domestic consumption.

Coal stockpiles in China up Coal stockpiles in China’s four major ports (Qinhuangdao, Jingtang, Caofeidian and Tianjin) along the Bohaj Sea rim rose by around 1.45m tonnes, an increase 10.4% week-on-week. Currently coal stockpiles total around 15.2m tonnes, according to Qinhuangdao port.

Asia

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ustr

alia

Mark

et N

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Asia / Australia News

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0

40

80

120

160

200

Jan

-08

Mar-

08

May-0

8

Ju

l-08

Sep

-08

No

v-0

8

Jan

-09

Mar-

09

May-0

9

Ju

l-09

Sep

-09

No

v-0

9

Jan

-10

Mar-

10

May-1

0

Ju

l-10

Sep

-10

No

v-1

0

Jan

-11

Mar-

11

May-1

1

Ju

l-11

Sep

-11

No

v-1

1

The Box Index B O X i

Conta

iner

Chart

ering

08/12/2011

Braemar Seascope Weekly Chartering Report 12

This week there has been a muted amount of enquiry, with activity again predominately consisting of extensions of existing tonnage. This has left our BOXi largely unchanged, although market sentiment has continued its downward trajectory. Liner losses of late have led to a string of announcements concerning restructuring, intended divestments, partner-ships and market exits. Likewise the current charter market is far away from the levels needed to support the owning community and the long predicted consolidation in the German market is starting to gather momentum. The larger sizes can take some comfort that rates are holding, and the growing need to garner economies of scale may mean that a number of large vessels are chartered in and out over the next few months. Elsewhere the amount of idle tonnage continues to grow, and the sparse amount of fresh enquiry inevitably suggests the rates of the mid-sizes and feeder sizes have further to fall.

Containers

63.19

Vessel (Teu/Hmg) Gear Speed Knots Index + / -510/285 Gearless 15.5 3.89 ► 0.00

700/440 Gearless 17.5 4.65 ▼ 0.10

750/415 Geared 16.0 5.09 ▼ 0.05

1000/650 Geared 17.5 5.50 ► 0.00

1100/715 Geared 20.0 6.61 ► 0.00

1350/925 Geared 20.0 5.11 ► 0.00

1600/1150 Gearless 18.0 6.18 ► 0.00

1700/1125 Geared 19.5 5.67 ► 0.00

1740/1300 Geared 20.5 6.01 ► 0.00

2000/1600 Geared 21.0 2.29 ► 0.00

2500/1900 Geared 22.0 4.14 ► 0.00

2800/2000 Gearless 22.0 3.83 ► 0.00

3500/2500 Gearless 23.0 2.51 ► 0.00

4250/2800 Gearless 24.0 1.71 ► 0.00

Index Total 63.19 ▼ 0.15