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Charlie Huckerby delivered the presentation at the 2014 Mining NSW Conference. Mining NSW Conference is the premier event focused on base metals exploration, building regional skill, and promoting economic development. For more information about the event, please visit: http://bit.ly/miningnsw14
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Australian Base Metal Shipping
Informa Mining NSW
Charlie Huckerby – Braemar ACM
August 2014
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Disclaimer The informa,on contained within this report is given in good faith based on the current market situa,on at the ,me of preparing this report and as such is specific to that point only. While all reasonable care has been taken in the prepara,on and colla,on of informa,on in this report Braemar Shipping Services Plc (and all associated and affiliated companies) does not accept any liability whatsoever for any errors of fact or opinion based on such facts. Some industry informa,on rela,ng to the shipping industry can be difficult to find or establish. Some data may not be available and may need to be es,mated or assessed and where such data may be limited or unavailable subjec,ve assessment may have to be used. No market analysis can guarantee accuracy. The usual fundamentals may not always govern the markets, for example psychology, market cycles and external events (such as acts of god or developments in future technologies) could cause markets to depart from their natural/usual course. Such external events have not been considered as part of this analysis. Historical market behaviour does not predict future market behaviour and shipping is an inherently high risk business. You should therefore consider a variety of informa,on and poten,al outcomes when making decisions based on the informa,on contained in this report. All informa,on provided by Braemar Shipping Services Plc is without any guarantee whatsoever. Braemar Shipping Services Plc or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates will not be liable for any consequences thereof. This report is intended solely for the informa,on of the email recipient account and must not be passed or divulged to any third par,es whatsoever without the wriLen permission of Braemar Shipping Services Plc. Braemar Shipping Services Plc accepts no liability to any third par,es whatsoever. If permission is granted, you must disclose the full report including all disclaimers, and not selected excerpts which may be taken out of context.
For more informa+on, contact Research on +61 (08) 9388 0536 or email [email protected]
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Braemar ACM Shipbroking
Braemar ACM Shipbroking is a wholly owned subsidiary of Braemar Shipping Services PLC a UK-‐based LSE company comprised of four divisions with shipbroking at its core. Braemar Shipping is one of the largest shipping services companies in the world with headquarters in London and regional offices in Aberdeen, Dubai, Shanghai, Beijing, Singapore, Mumbai, New Delhi, Melbourne, Sydney and Perth. The Australian offices have 50 employees, whilst the Group employs over 1,000 people worldwide. Braemar has no principal acOviOes in ship owning or operaOng.
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Base Metal Ports
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Base Metal Export Ports
Geraldton Sandfire MMG
Adelaide IMX
OZ Minerals Hillgrove
Townsville Chinova BHP
Glencore
Port Kembla Newcrest
CMOC (Northparkes)
Newcastle CBH
Glencore TriXon
Port Pirie Perilya (Lead)
Karumba MMG
Sydney (Containers) KBL Peak
Burnie CMT
Port Hedland Sandfire Newcrest Birla Telfer
Bunbury Boddington
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Loading Methods of Base Metals
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Fig 2: Fixed loaders Fig 1: Mobile loader
Shore Side loaders
Miners using this system • Newcrest – Port Kembla
• CBH – Newcastle • Telfer – Port Hedland
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Fig 4: Straddle Carrier Fig 3: Rotainer Boxes in Stacks
RotaJng Systems – Storage at the port
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RotaJng System -‐ Loading
Fig 5: QUBE Unit Tipping Minimal Dust
Fig 6: Ships Crane Loading in Geraldton
Miners using this system • Sandfire – Geraldton
• IMX – Adelaide • Oz Minerals – Adelaide • Chinova – Townsville
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Skips – Philippines and South East Asia
Fig 7: Skip loading from quayside Fig 8: Skip discharging into ships hold
Previously done by Newcrest out of Port Kembla, but superseded by rotating containers
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ConvenJonal Bulker Fleet
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Bulker Fleet & Orderbook
698
2,024
709
1,894
180
1,985
395
119
1,296
197
17
420
52 83
583
355
31 7
298
53 0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
Small Handysize
Large Handysize
Handymax Supramax Ultramax Panamax Post-‐Panamax
Mini Capesize
Capesize VLOC
Num
ber o
f Vessels
Fleet Orderbook
Total % of fleet on order =20% (Up 0.18% M-‐o-‐M)
01/08/2014
Source: Braemar ACM Research
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Ultramax (60-‐69,999 DWT)
14 24
44 53 45
77 267
194 44 1
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Num
ber o
f Vessels
Fleet Orderbook
Ultramax (modern Supramax) sector includes 60-‐69.99k dwt geared vessels built aGer 2009
01/08/2014
Source: Braemar ACM Research
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Supramax (50-‐59,999 DWT)
2 2 1 2 1 5 3 8 7 6 12
66 66 54 64
97 86 84
105 168
283 323 268
135 46
22 37 21 3
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Num
ber o
f Vessels
Fleet Orderbook
Supramax includes 50-‐59.99k Dwt sector including old vessels of 50-‐58k Dwt, and all post-‐1998 geared Supramaxes
01/08/2014
Source: Braemar ACM Research
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Large Handysize (25-‐39,999 DWT)
226 13 12 9 15 6 14
34 42
57 32 30 30 39 46 38
55 54 34 47
73 124
227 253 262
163 89
74 218 96
32
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Num
ber o
f Vessels
Fleet Orderbook
01/08/2014
Source: Braemar ACM Research
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Freight Market: Free Market
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Record Spot Rates An historical perspecJve
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
US $/ Day
Capesize Panamax Supramax Handysize Handymax
Commencement of Chinese Rapid Development
Chinese Credit Crunch
Cooling Chinese Steel Demand & Reducing Congestion
Record Chinese Iron Ore imports
Global Financial Crisis
22/08/2014
Source: The Bal,c Exchange
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Parcel Rates Comparison
Cargo Loaded Load/Discharge Port Freight Rate USD/T
5,500 T Darwin to Qingdao 48
11,000 T Darwin to Qingdao 32
5,500 T Adelaide to Qingdao 55
11,000 T Adelaide to Qingdao 40
5,500 T Newcastle to Qingdao 50
11,000 T Newcastle to Qingdao 35
5,500 T Port Kembla to Qingdao 50
11,000 T Newcastle to Qingdao 35
Calculations based upon US$600/tonne fuel oil Load Rate 5,000 T/Day
Standard smelter discharge rates
Source: Braemar ACM Research
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Conclusions
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OpportuniJes and consideraJons for base metal shippers • Number of ports that can be chosen, based upon mine locaOon – Newcastle, Port Kembla,
Port Pirie, Sydney (containers) and Adelaide are the major ports applicable for NSW.
• Range of loading methods for base metals.
• Factors impacOng choice of loading method include:
– Mine locaOon
– Port infrastructure
– Storage and environmental concerns at load port
– Expected mine output
• Very liXle fluctuaOon in freight rates between the various ports, thus selecOon of one port over another is unlikely to disadvantage you.
• We foresee freight rates to remain weak over the next two to three years, as an oversupply of vessels that has hit the water in the last few years, will mean compeOOon will remain high between shipowners.
25/08/2014
