Comparative Regional Comparative Regional Economic Advantages for Economic Advantages for Cellulosic Feedstocks for Cellulosic Feedstocks for Bioenergy Production. Bioenergy Production.

Burton C. EnglishBurton C. English

Use this time to address some Use this time to address some questionsquestions

Bioenergy – Potential FeedstocksBioenergy – Potential Feedstocks Residues or Dedicated Energy Residues or Dedicated Energy

Crops?Crops? What is the UT Switchgrass What is the UT Switchgrass

Project?Project?

Renewable Energy

Electricity Biodiesel Ethanol

Cattle Manure

ResiduesCorn, Wheat

Dedicated Energy Crops

Digester Dairy, Poultry, Hogs

Mill Wastes

Forest Residues

Oilseed Crops

Yellow Grease

TallowBeef and Poultry

Corn

Residues Corn and Wheat

Dedicated Energy Crops

Forest Residues

Food

Mill Wastes

Fuel Reduction

Renewable Energy Feedstocks From Renewable Energy Feedstocks From AgricultureAgriculture

Geographical Geographical CompetitivenessCompetitiveness

Biomass conversion to energy utilizes Biomass conversion to energy utilizes a number of different feedstocks a number of different feedstocks including agricultural and forest including agricultural and forest residues, mill and urban wastes, and residues, mill and urban wastes, and dedicated crops. Information on the dedicated crops. Information on the quantity of feedstock supply available quantity of feedstock supply available at the county level exists for prices at the county level exists for prices ranging from $12.50 to $100 per dry ranging from $12.50 to $100 per dry ton (excluding transportation costs) ton (excluding transportation costs) for agricultural and residues, mill and for agricultural and residues, mill and urban wood wastes, and switchgrass. urban wood wastes, and switchgrass.

Geographical Geographical CompetitivenessCompetitiveness

Agricultural Residues – complementary products in Agricultural Residues – complementary products in the production of grain and oilseed crops and the production of grain and oilseed crops and consists of corn stover and wheat straw derived from consists of corn stover and wheat straw derived from data supplied by Nelson (2002),data supplied by Nelson (2002),

Forest Residues – consist of logging residues and Forest Residues – consist of logging residues and other removals,other removals,

Mill Waste – by-product resulting from operations at Mill Waste – by-product resulting from operations at primary mills that convert round wood products into primary mills that convert round wood products into other wood products generally consisting of bark, other wood products generally consisting of bark, fine wood residues, and coarse wood residues,fine wood residues, and coarse wood residues,

Urban Wood Waste – wood contained in municipal Urban Wood Waste – wood contained in municipal solid waste streams including such items as solid waste streams including such items as containers, crates, pallets, furniture; yard trimmings; containers, crates, pallets, furniture; yard trimmings; residential and non-residential construction wastes; residential and non-residential construction wastes; residential and non-residential demolition wastes; residential and non-residential demolition wastes; and renovation and remodeling wastes, andand renovation and remodeling wastes, and

Dedicated energy cropsDedicated energy crops

Corn Stover - Supply Curve

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0

Million Tons

$/to

n

2030 2029 2028 2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014

2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007

Residue composite at Residue composite at $30/dry ton$30/dry ton

Biomass Types($30/dry ton)

Agriculture Residues

Energy Crop

Forest Residues

Mill Residues

Urban Wood Waste

Residue composite at Residue composite at $50/dry ton$50/dry ton

Biomass Types($50/dry ton)

Agriculture Residues

Energy Crop

Forest Residues

Mill Residues

Urban Wood Waste

By the year 2025, America’s farms, ranches and forests will provide 25 percent of the total energy consumed in the U.S. while continuing to produce safe, abundant and affordable food, feed and fiber.

25x’25

25x’25 Vision:

Land Use by Major Use Land Use by Major Use Category, 2002.Category, 2002.

Total Cropland434 Million Acres

61

3334

307

POLYSYS Planted Cropland

Cropland Pasture

CRP

Other

Private Land Base938 Million Acres

395

76 33

434

Cropland

Pasture/range

Woodland

Other

Total Cropland434 Million Acres

61

3334

307

POLYSYS Planted Cropland

Cropland Pasture

CRP

Other

Private Land Base938 Million Acres

395

76 33

434

Cropland

Pasture/range

Woodland

Other

Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistical Service, Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistical Service, 2004.2004.

Feedstock for Energy: Feedstock for Energy: Converted to EnergyConverted to Energy

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Year

Mill

ion

ton

s

Soybeans Corn Grain Wood Residue Straw Stover Ded. Energy Crops

Land Use: 2007, 2010, 2015, 2020, Land Use: 2007, 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2025 and 2025 (million acres(million acres))

81.9 85.4 85.2 82.9 78.7

73.4 72.2 72.2 59.1 53.3

58.6 58.8 58.3 54.0 49.4

62.8 63.3129.6 167.8

451.5 451.5 367.8 303.6279.2

66.7 58.9 55.8 53.8 52.9

176.9

105.856.8

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2007 2010 2015 2020 2025

Year

Mill

ion

Acr

es

Corn Soybeans Wheat O ther Crops

Hay Pasture Ded. Energy Crops Idle and CRP

Distribution of the Production Distribution of the Production of Cellulosic Materials, 2010of Cellulosic Materials, 2010

Dry Tons

zero

up to 500 thousand

up to 1 million

up to 2 million

up to 4 million

over 4 million

Dry Tons

zero

up to 500 thousand

up to 1 million

up to 2 million

up to 4 million

over 4 million

Distribution of the Production Distribution of the Production of Cellulosic Materials, 2015of Cellulosic Materials, 2015

Dry Tons

zero

up to 500 thousand

up to 1 million

up to 2 million

up to 4 million

over 4 million

Distribution of the Production Distribution of the Production of Cellulosic Materials, 2020of Cellulosic Materials, 2020

Dry Tons

zero

up to 500 thousand

up to 1 million

up to 2 million

up to 4 million

over 4 million

Distribution of the Production Distribution of the Production of Cellulosic Materials, 2025of Cellulosic Materials, 2025

Dry Tons

zero

up to 500 thousand

up to 1 million

up to 2 million

up to 4 million

over 4 million

Distribution of the Production Distribution of the Production of Dedicated Energy Crop, 2015of Dedicated Energy Crop, 2015

Dry Tons

zero

up to 500 thousand

up to 1 million

up to 2 million

up to 4 million

over 4 million

Distribution of the Production Distribution of the Production of Dedicated Energy Crop, 2020of Dedicated Energy Crop, 2020

Dry Tons

zero

up to 500 thousand

up to 1 million

up to 2 million

up to 4 million

over 4 million

Distribution of the Production Distribution of the Production of Dedicated Energy Crop, 2025of Dedicated Energy Crop, 2025

Changes in Farm Changes in Farm Income and Income and

Government PaymentsGovernment Payments (million $)(million $)

-$5,000

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024

Year

Ne

t In

co

me

(M

illio

n d

olla

rs)

-1,600

-1,400

-1,200

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

Go

vt.

Pa

y. (

Mill

ion

do

llars

)

Realized Net Income Govt. Payments

Dollars

zero

up to 25 million

up to 50 million

up to 100 million

over 100 million

Change in Net Returns -- Change in Net Returns -- 20102010

Change in Net Returns -- Change in Net Returns -- 20152015

Dollars

zero

up to 25 million

up to 50 million

up to 100 million

over 100 million

Dollars

zero

up to 25 million

up to 50 million

up to 100 million

over 100 million

Change in Net Returns -- Change in Net Returns -- 20202020

Change in Net Returns -- Change in Net Returns -- 20252025

Dollars

zero

up to 25 million

up to 50 million

up to 100 million

over 100 million

What is switchgrass?What is switchgrass?Native to the United StatesNative to the United StatesWarm Season GrassWarm Season GrassManaged using common agricultural Managed using common agricultural practices practices High yielding, drought tolerant, and requires High yielding, drought tolerant, and requires lower fertilizer and herbicide quantities than lower fertilizer and herbicide quantities than traditional cropstraditional cropsPlanting-May to early June and can use no-till Planting-May to early June and can use no-till practicespracticesAs a perennial, needs to be planted only once As a perennial, needs to be planted only once every 10 years or moreevery 10 years or moreHarvested annually, either in a two harvest Harvested annually, either in a two harvest system or a one harvest system after the first system or a one harvest system after the first frost, using conventional hay equipmentfrost, using conventional hay equipment

What is the UT Switchgrass What is the UT Switchgrass Project?Project?

The switchgrass project has three The switchgrass project has three questions to address.questions to address.

What incentives are required to induce What incentives are required to induce producers to convert commercial cropland to producers to convert commercial cropland to switchgrass?switchgrass?

What impact would a mature switchgrass What impact would a mature switchgrass feedstock industry have on Tennessee’s feedstock industry have on Tennessee’s economy and the Nation’s agricultural sector?economy and the Nation’s agricultural sector?

What is the potential of converting What is the potential of converting switchgrass to bio-oil for use as light-off fuel switchgrass to bio-oil for use as light-off fuel in a coal fired burner or some other in a coal fired burner or some other conversion process? conversion process?

What incentives are required to induce What incentives are required to induce producers to convert commercial producers to convert commercial

cropland to switchgrass?cropland to switchgrass? Several StepsSeveral Steps

Plant 32.5 acres on Experiment Station landPlant 32.5 acres on Experiment Station land Develop recommendations from literature and Develop recommendations from literature and

from experiencefrom experience Contract with producers to grow switchgrassContract with producers to grow switchgrass Analyze the experiences of the producers and Analyze the experiences of the producers and

those of the experiment stationthose of the experiment station Feed information learned into the Second Feed information learned into the Second

QuestionQuestion Use switchgrass grown to develop potential Use switchgrass grown to develop potential

bio-energy marketbio-energy market

ExperimentExperiment

VideoVideo Two experimentsTwo experiments

Variety yieldsVariety yields Seeding Rate X Fertilization Level X Seeding Rate X Fertilization Level X

LandscapeLandscape Seeding Rate 2.5, 5, 7.5, and 12 pounds per Seeding Rate 2.5, 5, 7.5, and 12 pounds per

acreacre Fertilization Rates 0, 60, 120, and 180 Fertilization Rates 0, 60, 120, and 180

pounds of Npounds of N 4 Different Landscapes4 Different Landscapes

Switchgrass Yields, 2004-Switchgrass Yields, 2004-20062006

Field N-21 A-7 bottom

2004 2005 2006 2004 2005 2006

Alamo 0.99 5 10.3 Alamo 0.77 1.4 2.1

SL-93-2 1.33 5.8 11.7 SL-93-2 1.03 2.3 3.3

GA 992 1.35 5 10.3 GA 992 1.03 2.3 3.2

GA 993 1.23 6.2 10.8 GA 993 1.09 2.9 4.6

Switchgrass Yields, 2004-Switchgrass Yields, 2004-20062006

212 A-7 Hillside

2004 2005 2006 2004 2005 2006

Alamo 0.94 3.85 8.5 Alamo 0.83 3.4 9.7

SL-93-2 1.13 4.7 8.4 SL-93-2 1.28 4.4 8.2

GA 992 1.29 3.9 7.2 GA 992 0.96 4.1 7.2

GA 993 1.33 4.6 7.7 GA 993 1.09 4.7 10.4

What incentives are required to induce What incentives are required to induce producers to convert commercial producers to convert commercial

cropland to switchgrass?cropland to switchgrass? We also conducted a survey of We also conducted a survey of

Tennessee producers.Tennessee producers. Found that Currently (pre Bush January Found that Currently (pre Bush January

2005 speech) 29% of producers willing 2005 speech) 29% of producers willing to grow switchgrass, 25% would not. to grow switchgrass, 25% would not. The other 45% would need additional The other 45% would need additional information before deciding.information before deciding.

Of the 45%, An estimated probit model Of the 45%, An estimated probit model indicated that 75% would likely say yes.indicated that 75% would likely say yes.

Questions?Questions?