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Commodities & Currencies
Weekly Tracker
Commodities Weekly Tracker
ContentsReturns
• Non Agri Commodities
• Currencies
• Agri Commodities
Non-Agri Commodities
• Gold
• Silver
• Copper
• Crude Oil
Monday | May 14 2012
• Crude Oil
Currencies – DX, Euro, INR
Agri Commodities
• Chana
• Black Pepper
• Turmeric
• Jeera
• Soybean
• Refine Soy Oil & CPO
• Sugar
• Kapas
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 14 2012
1.0
0.3 0.1 0.1 0.5
1.0
1.5
Currencies Weekly Performance
(0.2)
(0.5)
(1.0)
(1.3)(1.5)
(1.0)
(0.5)
0.0
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 14 2012
9.4
2.5
4.0
5.5
7.0
8.5
Non-Agri Commodities Weekly Performance
(1.3)(1.8) (2.4) (2.4)
(2.7) (2.9)(3.8)
(4.7)(5.0)
(3.5)
(2.0)
(0.5)
1.0
2.5
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 14 2012
*Weekly Performance for June contract, Mentha may Contract ; Kapas –
April 201
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 14 2012
GoldWeekly Price Performance
• On a weekly basis, gold prices dropped sharply by almost 4 percent on the
international markets and by 2.9 percent on the MCX.
• The yellow metal touched a low of $ 1573/oz and closed its trading session
at $ 1579/oz last week.
• However, depreciation in the Indian Rupee cushioned further decline on
the domestic bourses.
Factors which influenced gold prices
• Escalating tensions over Euro Zone debt worries and rising political
concerns in the region has led to spread the wave of risk aversion in the
global markets.
• Additionally, gold demand concerns from China which is the world’s
second-largest consumer of gold and a stronger dollar also acted as a
1,570
1,590
1,610
1,630
1,650
1,670
1,690
1,710
1,730
1,750
1,770
1,790
27,200
27,500
27,800
28,100
28,400
28,700
29,000
29,300
MCX and Comex Gold Price Performance
second-largest consumer of gold and a stronger dollar also acted as a
negative factor for prices.
ETF Performance
• Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-
traded fund, rose around 0.3 percent to 1,277.11 tonnes on 11th May 2012
from the previous level of 1,274.09 tonnes on 4th May 2012.
Outlook
• Gold is expected to trade lower in this week on the back of strength in the
US dollar coupled with weak sentiments in the global markets due to rising
uncertainty over Euro Zone debt concerns. Additionally, fall in crude oil
prices will also affect inflation-led demand for gold.
Weekly Technical Levels
• Sell MCX June Gold between 28650-28700, SL-28910, Target -
28000/27700.(CMP: 28,319)
• Spot Gold : Support 1548/1530 Resistance 1620/1632. (CMP: 1576.50)
MCX- Near Month Gold Futures (1 kg)- Rs/10 gms Comex Gold Futures - $/oz
78.0
78.5
79.0
79.5
80.0
80.5
81.0
81.5
82.0
1,530
1,550
1,570
1,590
1,610
1,630
1,650
1,670
1,690
1,710
1,730
1,750
1,770
1,790
Spot Gold Vs US Dollar Index
Spot Gold -$/oz US Dollar Index
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 14 2012
SilverWeekly Price Performance
• Spot silver declined sharply by 4.8 percent and touched a low of $
28.43/oz last week.
• On the MCX, Silver July contract traded lower by 2.1 percent as further
decline was cushioned due to a weaker Rupee and touched a low of Rs.
53,561/kg in the last week.
Factors that influenced silver prices
• Rise in risk aversion in the global markets due to worsening tensions in
the Euro Zone.
• Strength in the US dollar .
• Decline in gold prices.
• Downside in base metals pack.
27
29
31
33
35
37
50,000
52,000
54,000
56,000
58,000
60,000
MCX and Comex Silver Price Performance
• Downside in base metals pack.
ETF performance
• On a weekly basis, holdings in the iShares Silver Trust, the world's largest
silver-backed exchange-traded fund, dropped around 1.3 percent
to 9,465.08 tonnes on 11th May 2012 from the previous level of 9585.83
tonnes on 4th May 2012.
Outlook
• We expect silver to trade lower in this week, taking cues from fall in gold
prices, a stronger dollar and weak sentiments in the global markets. Silver
will also take cues from movement in base metals pack.
Weekly Technical Levels
• Sell MCX Silver July between 55200-55300, SL-56000, Target -
52700/52000. (CMP: 53,765)
• Spot Silver : Support 27.80/26.15 Resistance 29.70/30.39 (CMP: 28.60)
MCX- Near Month Silver Futures (30 kg)- Rs/ kg Comex Silver Futures - $/oz
78.0
78.5
79.0
79.5
80.0
80.5
81.0
81.5
82.0
26.5
28.0
29.5
31.0
32.5
34.0
35.5
37.0
Spot Silver Vs US Dollar Index
Spot Silver -$/oz US Dollar Index
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 14 2012
Copper
Weekly Price Performance
• On a weekly basis, copper prices declined around 2.4 percent on the LME and
by 2.1 percent on the MCX.
• However, depreciation in Indian Rupee prevented further fall on the MCX.
Copper Inventories
• The red metal inventories on the LME warehouses dropped sharply by 4.1
percent to 221,275 tonnes on 11th May 2012 from the previous level of
230,625 tonnes on 4th May 2012.
• Weekly copper inventories at warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures
Exchange also decreased sharply by 4.7 percent to 187,449 tonnes last week.
Factors that influenced copper prices
385390395400405410415420425430435440445450
7,100
7,300
7,500
7,700
7,900
8,100
8,300
8,500
8,700
8,900
LME and MCX Copper Price Performance
• Strength in the US dollar index.
• Worsening Europe’s debt crisis.
• Unfavorable economic data from China.
• However, further downside in prices was restricted on account of decline in
copper LME as well as in Shanghai inventories last week.
Outlook
• During the week, we expect copper to trade lower on account of rising worries
over global economic growth, with Euro Zone debt crisis being the matter of
concerns, could affect demand for the industrial metals. In addition to this, a
stronger dollar will also act as a negative factor for prices.
Weekly Technical Levels
• Sell MCX June Copper between 440-443, SL-448, Target -425/421.(CMP:
428.79).
• LME Copper: Support 7870/7775 Resistance 8200/8275. (CMP: 7916)
LME Copper Future ($/tonne) MCX Near Month Copper Contract (Rs/kg)
7,400
7,600
7,800
8,000
8,200
8,400
8,600
8,800
220,000
240,000
260,000
280,000
300,000
320,000
340,000
360,000
380,000
LME Copper Price Movement Vs Inventory
Copper LME Inventory (tonnes) LME Copper Future ($/tonne)
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 14 2012
Crude OilWeekly Price Performance
• On a w-o-w basis, Nymex crude oil prices declined by 2.4 percent.
• On the MCX June contract crude oil prices declined by 1.7 percent as depreciation in
the Indian Rupee restricted further fall in prices.
US Energy Department Inventory
• As per the US Energy Department (EIA) report released last week, US crude oil
inventories raised more than expected by 3.7 million barrels to 379.5 million barrels
which for the week ending on 4th May, 2012. Crude oil inventories output is at highest
level nearly in 22 years.
• Gasoline stocks dropped by 2.6 million barrels to 207.1 million barrels and whereas
distillate stockpiles also declined by 3.3 million barrels to 120.8 million barrels for the
last week.
Factors that influenced crude oil prices
92.0
94.0
96.0
98.0
100.0
102.0
104.0
106.0
108.0
110.0
4700
4800
4900
5000
5100
5200
5300
5400
5500
5600
Nymex and MCX Crude Oil Price Performance
Factors that influenced crude oil prices
• More than expected rise in US crude oil inventories which stood at its highest level in
last 22 years.
• Rise in the production supply from of Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
(OPEC).
• Decline in crude oil imports from China , the world’s second largest crude consumer.
• A stronger dollar index.
Outlook
• Crude oil prices are expected to trade with a negative bias during the week on the
back of rising US crude oil inventories, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister’s statement of world
crude oil market being oversupplied, a stronger dollar and worsening Europe’s debt
crisis.
Weekly Technical Levels
• Sell MCX Crude May between 5250-5270, SL-5325, Target -5070/5000.(CMP: 5123)
• Nymex Crude Oil: Support: 95.20/93.60 Resistance 98.30/100.0 (CMP: 95.28)
MCX crude oil (Rs/bbl) NYMEX Crude Oil ($/bbl)
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
Crude Oil Inventories (mn barrels)
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 14 2012
DX/ INRWeekly Price Performance
• On a week-on-week basis, the US Dollar Index (DX) gained around 1 percent .
• The Indian Rupee (INR) depreciated around 0.3 percent in the last week.
Factors that influenced movement in the DX
• Escalating tensions with respect to Euro Zone debt crisis.
• Weak sentiments in the global markets.
• Additionally, fall in the Euro also acted as a further supportive factor the dollar.
• The index touched a high of 80.48 and ended its trading session at 80.40 last week.
Factors that influenced movement in the Rupee
• Unfavorable industrial output data for March increased concerns over the country's
economic outlook.
• Additionally, worries over foreign outflows from the country, a stronger dollar and 76.5
77.0
77.5
78.0
78.5
79.0
79.5
80.0
80.5
81.0
81.5
82.0
US Dollar Index
• Additionally, worries over foreign outflows from the country, a stronger dollar and
weak sentiments in the domestic equities also led Rupee to decline further and touch
a low of 53.91 last week.
Economic Data from India
• India’s industrial output unexpectedly decline by 3.5 percent in March as against a
rise of 4.1 percent in February. Manufacturing output declined by 4.4 percent in
March from 3.9 percent a month ago.
Outlook
• The US dollar is expected to strengthen this week, on the back of rising uncertainty
over Euro Zone debt concerns which will boost demand for the low-yielding dollar. On
account of this, coupled with weak market sentiments, we expect the Indian Rupee to
trade with a depreciation bias during the week.
Weekly Technical Levels
• USD/INR MCX May: Support 53.20/53.10 Resistance 54.30/ 54.82 (CMP:53.92)
• US Dollar Index: Support 80.0/79.70 Resistance 80.75/ 82.0(CMP:80.52 )
76.5
48.0
49.0
50.0
51.0
52.0
53.0
54.0
$/INR - Spot
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 14 2012
EuroWeekly Price Performance
• On a weekly basis, the Euro traded lower by more than 1 percent.
• The Euro touched a low of 1.2903 and ended its trading session at 1.2915 last
week.
Factors that influenced movement in the Euro
• Rising political uncertainty in Europe .
• Increasing risk that Greece could exit the Euro Zone and the European Union.
• In addition to this, poor sentiments in the global markets.
• Strength in the US dollar also exerted further downside pressure on the
currency last week.
News
1.26
1.27
1.28
1.29
1.30
1.31
1.32
1.33
1.34
1.35
Euro/$ - Spot
News
• Greek political leaders was not successful to form a ruling coalition which
increased tensions over the risk of the economy might exit the Euro Zone and
the European Union.
• German Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives faced a severe defeat in an
election in Germany's most populous state on Sunday.
Outlook
• The Euro is expected to trade with a negative bias during the week on the back
of rising tensions with respect to Europe’s debt crisis with Greece being the
matter of concerns. Additionally, strength in the US dollar and weak market
sentiments will also act as a negative factor for the currency.
Weekly Technical Levels
• EURO/USD SPOT : Support 1.2855/1.2798 Resistance 1.3018/1.3122
(CMP:1.2875 )
63.5
64.5
65.5
66.5
67.5
68.5
69.5
70.5
EURO/INR - Spot
Chana
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 14, 2012
Weekly Price Performance
• Chana prices extended gains of the previous week owing to demand from the local
stockists and settled 1.5% and 2.6% higher w-o-w. Drop in output estimates
coupled with lower supplies from Rajasthan also supported bulls in the market.
Chana output revised down further - Third Advance estimates
• According to the Third Advance estimates, Chana output in 2011-12 is estimated at
7.40 mn tn as compared to 7.66 mn tn as stated in second Advance estimates and
8.25 mn tn produced last year.
• The month of April and May is the peak harvesting period in Rajasthan, Although
harvesting has begun in April in this third largest producing state, the pace has
been very slow due to drop in output by more than 20%.
Measures by the Forward Market Commission to curb volatility
NCDEX on May 9, 2012 imposed further special margin of 20% (in cash) on long• NCDEX on May 9, 2012 imposed further special margin of 20% (in cash) on long
side on all running contracts and yet to be launched contracts w.e.f. 10.05.12.
Considering the new margin, the total cash margin now stands at 35 % on long side.
• Penalty structure on delivery default by sellers is revised to 1.5% + the difference
between the FSP and the average of the 3 highest of the last Spot prices of 5
succeeding days after the expiry of contract (E+1 to E+5 days), if the average price
so determined is higher than FSP; else this component will be zero.
• Maximum final validity period for Chana (dry) has been revised to 4 months from 7
months and for Chana(Cold) to 6 months from 9 months. Revalidations are not
allowed in case of Chana ( dry) one revalidation allowed for Chana (Cold)
Outlook
• Chana prices may extend gains of the previous week owing to buying by the local
stockists and fears of lower output. However, in the long term with lower
availability and rise in consumption prices are likely to remain firm. Positive Kharif
pulses sowing report may however cap sharp gains .
Weekly Strategy
• Buy NCDEX June Chana between 4280-4290, SL-4140, target 4440/4550.
Black Pepper
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 14, 2012
Weekly Price Performance
• Lacklustre trades in the domestic mandis amidst reports of cheap imports of
Pepper into India from Vietnam led prices to trade with negative bias and settled
1.9% lower w-o-w. Futures mirrored the spot prices and ended 3.5% down w-o-w.
• Imports of pepper from Vietnam into India are expected to improve further owing
to cheap pepper there. Pepper prices in India are being offered at $7,600/tn while
Vietnam is offering its 550 GL at $6800/tn and Brazil at $7000/tn (source: Agri
watch)
Decline in Pepper imports by U.S.
• Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of the spice declined 14.8% in the
first 2 months of the year to 8810 tn as compared to 10344 tn in the same period
previous year . Imports of Pepper in the month of February declined by 16.8% to
3999 tn as compared to 4811 tn in the month of January 2012 .
Source :Peppertradeboard
3999 tn as compared to 4811 tn in the month of January 2012 .
Global and Domestic exports
• Exports of Pepper from Malaysia during Jan – Feb 2012 remained lower at 1110
tn ,43% down as compared to 1962 tn last year. Exports of Pepper from Indonesia
in 2011 witnessed a sharp decline of 42% at 36500 tn as compared to 62,600 tn in
2010. Exports of Pepper from Vietnam during Jan 2012 to Feb 15, 2012 stood at
6736 tn up 16.3 percent as compared to corresponding period last year.
• Exports of Pepper from India in the first two months of the year stood around
5800 tn according to International Pepper Community (IPC).
Outlook
• Pepper prices are expected to trade bearish on account of fragile demand from
the overseas buyers and imports of cheaper Pepper from Vietnam into India. Any
reports with respect to fresh arrivals of Pepper from Malaysia is lalso ikely to
pressurize prices. Fresh arrivals from Malaysia will commence shortly.
Weekly Strategy
• Sell NCDEX June Pepper between 38150-38200, SL-38980, Target 36850/36300
Turmeric
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 14, 2012
Weekly Price Performance
• Sharp fall in the Spot prices led farmers to bring lesser quantity of Turmeric into
the domestic . This led availability of the Turmeric to decline causing prices to
firm. Prices settled 11% higher w-o-w. Reports of buying of Turmeric by the
government around 5000/qtl also added to the bullish sentiments.
• Futures traced the Spot prices and settled 6.6% higher w-o-w.
Decline in fresh arrivals in major mandis
• Average daily fresh arrivals in Nizamabad have reduced to 7-8 thousand bags as
compared to 1-122 thousand bags last week while that in Duggiralla, Warangal
and Cuddapah sum to 10,000 bags, Sangli 8,000 bags and the largest producing
state Erode is witnessing arrivals of 8-10 thousand bags.(each bag weighs 70-75
kgs).
Turmeric production to touch historical high in 2012
Source: Spot market sources
Turmeric production to touch historical high in 2012
• Production of Turmeric is expected to touch historical level of 90 lakh bags in
2011-12 season. Production of turmeric in Erode in 2011-12 is expected to rise
57% to 55 lakh bags as compared to 35 lakh bags in 2010-11.
Exports of Turmeric at historical high of 67,000 tonnes
• Exports of turmeric during April 2011 to January 2012 rose 69% to 67,000 tonnes
as compared to 39,600 tonnes in the same period previous year.
• The target set by the Spices board have already been achieved and has touched
new historical high of 67,000 tonnes during Apr 2011 to Jan 2012.
Outlook
• Turmeric prices are expected to witness selling pressure due to long liquidation by
the market participants and expectation of rise in the supplies in the domestic
market eyeing high prices.
Weekly Strategy• Buy NCDEX June Turmeric between 3890-3910, SL-3770 Target 4200/4288
Jeera
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 14, 2012
Weekly Price Performance
• Jeera Spot prices remained firm owing to demand from the local and overseas
buyers and settled 1.8% higher w-o-w. Futures traced the Spot prices and
remained firm in most part of the week but declined in the last two days of the
week on account of long liquidation by the market participants
Sowing of jeera in Syria and Turkey completed
• Sowing of jeera in Syria and Turkey has completed and according to the spot
market sources crop might be lesser by around 22-25%. Clear updates with
respect to output there will be known by end of May.
• Prices of jeera in the international market of Syrian origin are being offered at
$3300/tonne while Indian jeera is being offered at $2600/tonne.
Domestic updates
• Arrivals in the domestic market still seen around 25-27 thousand bags as
Source: Spices Board of India
• Arrivals in the domestic market still seen around 25-27 thousand bags as
compared to 18-20 thousand bags on an average during this period.
• Production of jeera this season is expected to touch 40 lakh bags according to the
spot market sources a rise of 37.9%as compared to 29 lakh bags in 2011 (each bag
weighs 55kgs). Domestic consumption of jeera however hovers around 22-25 lakh
bags.
• Exports of Jeera during April 2011 to January 2012 rose by 54% to 34,500 tonnes
as compared to 22,450 tonnes in the same period previous year. Exports for the
month of January 2012 however witnessed a decline of 40% month and month to
3,000 tonnes.
Outlook
• Jeera prices are expected to remain firm in the early part of the week owing to
demand from local stockists but might witness selling pressure as arrivals might
improve towards the end of the week tracking higher rates.
Weekly Strategy• Buy NCDEX June Jeera between 13600-13650, SL-13180, Target 14300/14700
Soybean
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 14, 2012
Weekly price performance
• Better sowing prospect of Soybean in U.S. and thereby anticipation of better
output this season led prices to settle 4.81% lower w-o-w. Decline in the Soymeal
exports from U.S. also led prices to dip. NCDEX Soybean Futures traced the
international prices and settled 6.8% lower w-o-w. Further, change in the Final
validly period for Soybean also added support to the bears in the market.
Exports of Oil meals for April 2012 down 22%- SOPA
• Export of oil meals during Apr 2012 declined by 22% to 4 lakh tn as compared to
5.13 lakh tn in Apr 2011, according to data released by SOPA on Friday. Although
Soymeal exports were up marginally by 2.8% compared to Apr 2011, mustard
meal and castor seed meal witnessed a sharp fall.
• Exports in the last 5 months (Dec 2011 till April 2012) are above the average of
4.6 lakh tonnes made in last 13 months owing to depreciation in the rupee.
Source: SEA of India ; Note: Exports in Lakh tonnes
Global Updates
• U.S. weekly exports of Soybean declined for the second consecutive week by 22%
to 4.66 lakh tonnes as compared to previous week.
• As per US Crop weekly progress report, soybean plantation was 24% as compared
to 22% forecast.
• However, Chinese Soybean imports for the month of May 2012 are likely to be
around 5.7 mln tn as compared to 4.7 mln tn in the month of April 2012
Outlook
• Although, demand supply fundamentals point towards further upside in the
medium term, in the short term, we expect the entire edible oil complex to
witness further correction on account of lower oil meal export figures that
witnessed 22% drop mainly due to disparity in crushing. Prices may also take cues
form US planting data and USDA crop report to be released on Thursday.
Strategy
• Sell NCDEX June Soybean between 3380-3400, SL-3500, target 3240/3200
Refine Soy Oil and Crude Palm Oil
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 14, 2012
Weekly price performance
• Expectation of better crop in U.S resulting from better crop progress led CBOT Soy
Oil prices to continue its bearish trend and settled 2.6% lower. Lingering political
uncertainty in the Euro zone and weak economic data in China also led bears to gain
power. Refined Soy Oil Futures in NCDEX also settled in the red tracking
international prices amidst fragile demand in the domestic market. Prices settled 3%
lower w-o-w.
• Lower palm oil exports from Malaysia along with selling in the entire Edible Oil
complex led BMD Palm Oil as well as CPO to witness further selling pressure and
settled 2.4% lower w-o-w while MCX CPO Futures settled 3.5% lower.
Global Scenario
• According to SGS exports of Palm Oil from Malaysia during 1-10th May 2012 declined
by 14.2% to 4.19 lakh tn as compared to 4.88 lakh tn during 1st -10th May 2011.by 14.2% to 4.19 lakh tn as compared to 4.88 lakh tn during 1st -10th May 2011.
Malaysia palm Oil stocks declined by 7% to 1.82mln tn in April 2012.
• Indonesia is expected to raise is expected to raise its export tax for the month of
May 2012 to 19.5% from 18 % in April 2012 an effort to secure domestic supplies,
boost downstream industries and reduce volatility in the cooking oil prices. Further,
seasonally lower yields of Palm Oil may further crunch supplies in the coming
weeks.
Domestic Scenario
• The import of vegetable oils during Apr 2012 stood at 8.97 lakh tn as compared to
4.36lakh tn in Apr 2011. Import of Soybean Oil was the highest in the month of April
2012 and stood at 2.16 lakh tonnes as compared to 31250 tn in the same period
previous year. The overall import of vegetable oils during Nov 11 – Apr 12 stood at
46.03 lakh tn a rise of 32% as against last year.
Strategy: Refine Soy Oil
• Sell NCDEX June Refined Soy Oil between 742-745, SL-752, target 725/720
Strategy : Crude palm Oil (CPO)
• Sell MCX June CPO between 598-600, SL-608, target 585/580.
Source: Reuters
Sugar
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 14, 2012
Weekly Price Performance
• NCDEX Sugar prices settled on a positive note in the last week owing to buying by
the local stockists at lower levels due to summer season. However, LIFFE Sugar
Futures continued its bearish trend and touched a 20 month low owing to
sufficient availability of sweetener in the international market.
Acreage in Maharashtra expected to decline in 2012-13 season
• Sugarcane acreage in Maharashtra is expected to decline due to inadequate
irrigation facility and drought in some of the key growing areas. Maharashtra
sugar output may decline to 8 mln tn in 2012-13 from 8.9 mln tn in 2011-12.
• For 2012-13 season, sugar planting is nearing its end and 48.61 lakh hectares have
been covered as on 4th may 2012 against 47.61 lakh hectares covered last year.
• India produced 25.1 mn tn sugar between Oct- Apr period, up 2.5 mn tn produced
last year. Considering the planting figures and climatic conditions, India islast year. Considering the planting figures and climatic conditions, India is
expected to produce 24.5-25 mn tn sugar in 2012-13 season compared to
estimated 26 mn tn in the current season.
Global Updates
• According to the International Sugar Organization (ISO), the global sugar surplus is
forecast to halve to around 3 million tonnes in 2012/13 (October-September)
from a surplus of 6.5 million tonnes in 2011/12.
Outlook
• In the domestic markets, we expect prices to trade with upward bias on account
of rising demand coupled with positive sentiments with respect to exports.
However, sharp upside may be capped on the back of sufficient supplies and
lower international prices that is making exports unattractive.
• Further, with global sugar surplus halving prices may find support and strengthen
in the international market.
Strategy
• Buy NCDEX June Sugar between 2890-2880, SL-2850, target 2920-2950.Source: ICAR
Kapas/Cotton
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 14, 2012
Weekly Price Performance
• After remaining firm in the last few sessions NCDEX April Kapas 2013 witnessed
long liquidation and ended 10% lower w-o-w. ICE Cotton extended losses and
settled 8%lower on account of sufficient supplies globally.
CAB revised Indian Cotton balance sheet- Ending stocks estimated lower
• Cotton Advisory Board revised upward its output estimates for 2011-12 season at
347 lakh bales while its lowered ending stocks to 25 lakh bales on the back record
high exports that touched 115 lakh bales. Arrivals of Cotton as on 2nd May, 2012
stood at 300 lakh bales against 308.2 lakh bales arrived during the same period
last year.
Record Cotton 2012-13 global stocks -USDA
• World 2012/13 cotton ending stocks at a record 73.75 million (480-lb) bales, up
over 10 percent from the 2011/12 level. Stocks-to-use ratio is projected to rise toover 10 percent from the 2011/12 level. Stocks-to-use ratio is projected to rise to
32 percent well above the last three seasons, but only slightly above the 10-year
average of 30 percent.
China imports to drive world Cotton Trade- ICAC
• The International Cotton Advisory Committee secretariat said in a monthly report
that the boost in Chinese imports will more than double its cotton stocks to 5
million tonnes in 2011/12, and shipments from India, Brazil and Australia could
reach record levels.
Outlook
• Kapas prices may witness further selling owing to long liquidation by the market
participants tracking bearishness in the international market owing to rise in the
global ending stocks. However, expectations of lower area next season in key
growing nations may cap sharp downside in the prices.
Strategy
• Sell NCDEX April Kapas between 992-1000, SL-11055, target 920/900.
Thank You!
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday May 14, 2012
Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd.
Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 3083 7700
Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, Central Road, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000
MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302
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The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any
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