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Commodities & Currencies Weekly Tracker

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Page 1: Commodities & Currencies Weekly Trackerweb.angelbackoffice.com/Research_ContentManagement/commodit… · Commodities Weekly Tracker Monday | May 14 2012 Silver WeeklyPricePerformance

Commodities & Currencies

Weekly Tracker

Page 2: Commodities & Currencies Weekly Trackerweb.angelbackoffice.com/Research_ContentManagement/commodit… · Commodities Weekly Tracker Monday | May 14 2012 Silver WeeklyPricePerformance

Commodities Weekly Tracker

ContentsReturns

• Non Agri Commodities

• Currencies

• Agri Commodities

Non-Agri Commodities

• Gold

• Silver

• Copper

• Crude Oil

Monday | May 14 2012

• Crude Oil

Currencies – DX, Euro, INR

Agri Commodities

• Chana

• Black Pepper

• Turmeric

• Jeera

• Soybean

• Refine Soy Oil & CPO

• Sugar

• Kapas

Page 3: Commodities & Currencies Weekly Trackerweb.angelbackoffice.com/Research_ContentManagement/commodit… · Commodities Weekly Tracker Monday | May 14 2012 Silver WeeklyPricePerformance

Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 14 2012

1.0

0.3 0.1 0.1 0.5

1.0

1.5

Currencies Weekly Performance

(0.2)

(0.5)

(1.0)

(1.3)(1.5)

(1.0)

(0.5)

0.0

Page 4: Commodities & Currencies Weekly Trackerweb.angelbackoffice.com/Research_ContentManagement/commodit… · Commodities Weekly Tracker Monday | May 14 2012 Silver WeeklyPricePerformance

Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 14 2012

9.4

2.5

4.0

5.5

7.0

8.5

Non-Agri Commodities Weekly Performance

(1.3)(1.8) (2.4) (2.4)

(2.7) (2.9)(3.8)

(4.7)(5.0)

(3.5)

(2.0)

(0.5)

1.0

2.5

Page 5: Commodities & Currencies Weekly Trackerweb.angelbackoffice.com/Research_ContentManagement/commodit… · Commodities Weekly Tracker Monday | May 14 2012 Silver WeeklyPricePerformance

Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 14 2012

*Weekly Performance for June contract, Mentha may Contract ; Kapas –

April 201

Page 6: Commodities & Currencies Weekly Trackerweb.angelbackoffice.com/Research_ContentManagement/commodit… · Commodities Weekly Tracker Monday | May 14 2012 Silver WeeklyPricePerformance

Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 14 2012

GoldWeekly Price Performance

• On a weekly basis, gold prices dropped sharply by almost 4 percent on the

international markets and by 2.9 percent on the MCX.

• The yellow metal touched a low of $ 1573/oz and closed its trading session

at $ 1579/oz last week.

• However, depreciation in the Indian Rupee cushioned further decline on

the domestic bourses.

Factors which influenced gold prices

• Escalating tensions over Euro Zone debt worries and rising political

concerns in the region has led to spread the wave of risk aversion in the

global markets.

• Additionally, gold demand concerns from China which is the world’s

second-largest consumer of gold and a stronger dollar also acted as a

1,570

1,590

1,610

1,630

1,650

1,670

1,690

1,710

1,730

1,750

1,770

1,790

27,200

27,500

27,800

28,100

28,400

28,700

29,000

29,300

MCX and Comex Gold Price Performance

second-largest consumer of gold and a stronger dollar also acted as a

negative factor for prices.

ETF Performance

• Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-

traded fund, rose around 0.3 percent to 1,277.11 tonnes on 11th May 2012

from the previous level of 1,274.09 tonnes on 4th May 2012.

Outlook

• Gold is expected to trade lower in this week on the back of strength in the

US dollar coupled with weak sentiments in the global markets due to rising

uncertainty over Euro Zone debt concerns. Additionally, fall in crude oil

prices will also affect inflation-led demand for gold.

Weekly Technical Levels

• Sell MCX June Gold between 28650-28700, SL-28910, Target -

28000/27700.(CMP: 28,319)

• Spot Gold : Support 1548/1530 Resistance 1620/1632. (CMP: 1576.50)

MCX- Near Month Gold Futures (1 kg)- Rs/10 gms Comex Gold Futures - $/oz

78.0

78.5

79.0

79.5

80.0

80.5

81.0

81.5

82.0

1,530

1,550

1,570

1,590

1,610

1,630

1,650

1,670

1,690

1,710

1,730

1,750

1,770

1,790

Spot Gold Vs US Dollar Index

Spot Gold -$/oz US Dollar Index

Page 7: Commodities & Currencies Weekly Trackerweb.angelbackoffice.com/Research_ContentManagement/commodit… · Commodities Weekly Tracker Monday | May 14 2012 Silver WeeklyPricePerformance

Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 14 2012

SilverWeekly Price Performance

• Spot silver declined sharply by 4.8 percent and touched a low of $

28.43/oz last week.

• On the MCX, Silver July contract traded lower by 2.1 percent as further

decline was cushioned due to a weaker Rupee and touched a low of Rs.

53,561/kg in the last week.

Factors that influenced silver prices

• Rise in risk aversion in the global markets due to worsening tensions in

the Euro Zone.

• Strength in the US dollar .

• Decline in gold prices.

• Downside in base metals pack.

27

29

31

33

35

37

50,000

52,000

54,000

56,000

58,000

60,000

MCX and Comex Silver Price Performance

• Downside in base metals pack.

ETF performance

• On a weekly basis, holdings in the iShares Silver Trust, the world's largest

silver-backed exchange-traded fund, dropped around 1.3 percent

to 9,465.08 tonnes on 11th May 2012 from the previous level of 9585.83

tonnes on 4th May 2012.

Outlook

• We expect silver to trade lower in this week, taking cues from fall in gold

prices, a stronger dollar and weak sentiments in the global markets. Silver

will also take cues from movement in base metals pack.

Weekly Technical Levels

• Sell MCX Silver July between 55200-55300, SL-56000, Target -

52700/52000. (CMP: 53,765)

• Spot Silver : Support 27.80/26.15 Resistance 29.70/30.39 (CMP: 28.60)

MCX- Near Month Silver Futures (30 kg)- Rs/ kg Comex Silver Futures - $/oz

78.0

78.5

79.0

79.5

80.0

80.5

81.0

81.5

82.0

26.5

28.0

29.5

31.0

32.5

34.0

35.5

37.0

Spot Silver Vs US Dollar Index

Spot Silver -$/oz US Dollar Index

Page 8: Commodities & Currencies Weekly Trackerweb.angelbackoffice.com/Research_ContentManagement/commodit… · Commodities Weekly Tracker Monday | May 14 2012 Silver WeeklyPricePerformance

Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 14 2012

Copper

Weekly Price Performance

• On a weekly basis, copper prices declined around 2.4 percent on the LME and

by 2.1 percent on the MCX.

• However, depreciation in Indian Rupee prevented further fall on the MCX.

Copper Inventories

• The red metal inventories on the LME warehouses dropped sharply by 4.1

percent to 221,275 tonnes on 11th May 2012 from the previous level of

230,625 tonnes on 4th May 2012.

• Weekly copper inventories at warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures

Exchange also decreased sharply by 4.7 percent to 187,449 tonnes last week.

Factors that influenced copper prices

385390395400405410415420425430435440445450

7,100

7,300

7,500

7,700

7,900

8,100

8,300

8,500

8,700

8,900

LME and MCX Copper Price Performance

• Strength in the US dollar index.

• Worsening Europe’s debt crisis.

• Unfavorable economic data from China.

• However, further downside in prices was restricted on account of decline in

copper LME as well as in Shanghai inventories last week.

Outlook

• During the week, we expect copper to trade lower on account of rising worries

over global economic growth, with Euro Zone debt crisis being the matter of

concerns, could affect demand for the industrial metals. In addition to this, a

stronger dollar will also act as a negative factor for prices.

Weekly Technical Levels

• Sell MCX June Copper between 440-443, SL-448, Target -425/421.(CMP:

428.79).

• LME Copper: Support 7870/7775 Resistance 8200/8275. (CMP: 7916)

LME Copper Future ($/tonne) MCX Near Month Copper Contract (Rs/kg)

7,400

7,600

7,800

8,000

8,200

8,400

8,600

8,800

220,000

240,000

260,000

280,000

300,000

320,000

340,000

360,000

380,000

LME Copper Price Movement Vs Inventory

Copper LME Inventory (tonnes) LME Copper Future ($/tonne)

Page 9: Commodities & Currencies Weekly Trackerweb.angelbackoffice.com/Research_ContentManagement/commodit… · Commodities Weekly Tracker Monday | May 14 2012 Silver WeeklyPricePerformance

Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 14 2012

Crude OilWeekly Price Performance

• On a w-o-w basis, Nymex crude oil prices declined by 2.4 percent.

• On the MCX June contract crude oil prices declined by 1.7 percent as depreciation in

the Indian Rupee restricted further fall in prices.

US Energy Department Inventory

• As per the US Energy Department (EIA) report released last week, US crude oil

inventories raised more than expected by 3.7 million barrels to 379.5 million barrels

which for the week ending on 4th May, 2012. Crude oil inventories output is at highest

level nearly in 22 years.

• Gasoline stocks dropped by 2.6 million barrels to 207.1 million barrels and whereas

distillate stockpiles also declined by 3.3 million barrels to 120.8 million barrels for the

last week.

Factors that influenced crude oil prices

92.0

94.0

96.0

98.0

100.0

102.0

104.0

106.0

108.0

110.0

4700

4800

4900

5000

5100

5200

5300

5400

5500

5600

Nymex and MCX Crude Oil Price Performance

Factors that influenced crude oil prices

• More than expected rise in US crude oil inventories which stood at its highest level in

last 22 years.

• Rise in the production supply from of Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries

(OPEC).

• Decline in crude oil imports from China , the world’s second largest crude consumer.

• A stronger dollar index.

Outlook

• Crude oil prices are expected to trade with a negative bias during the week on the

back of rising US crude oil inventories, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister’s statement of world

crude oil market being oversupplied, a stronger dollar and worsening Europe’s debt

crisis.

Weekly Technical Levels

• Sell MCX Crude May between 5250-5270, SL-5325, Target -5070/5000.(CMP: 5123)

• Nymex Crude Oil: Support: 95.20/93.60 Resistance 98.30/100.0 (CMP: 95.28)

MCX crude oil (Rs/bbl) NYMEX Crude Oil ($/bbl)

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

Crude Oil Inventories (mn barrels)

Page 10: Commodities & Currencies Weekly Trackerweb.angelbackoffice.com/Research_ContentManagement/commodit… · Commodities Weekly Tracker Monday | May 14 2012 Silver WeeklyPricePerformance

Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 14 2012

DX/ INRWeekly Price Performance

• On a week-on-week basis, the US Dollar Index (DX) gained around 1 percent .

• The Indian Rupee (INR) depreciated around 0.3 percent in the last week.

Factors that influenced movement in the DX

• Escalating tensions with respect to Euro Zone debt crisis.

• Weak sentiments in the global markets.

• Additionally, fall in the Euro also acted as a further supportive factor the dollar.

• The index touched a high of 80.48 and ended its trading session at 80.40 last week.

Factors that influenced movement in the Rupee

• Unfavorable industrial output data for March increased concerns over the country's

economic outlook.

• Additionally, worries over foreign outflows from the country, a stronger dollar and 76.5

77.0

77.5

78.0

78.5

79.0

79.5

80.0

80.5

81.0

81.5

82.0

US Dollar Index

• Additionally, worries over foreign outflows from the country, a stronger dollar and

weak sentiments in the domestic equities also led Rupee to decline further and touch

a low of 53.91 last week.

Economic Data from India

• India’s industrial output unexpectedly decline by 3.5 percent in March as against a

rise of 4.1 percent in February. Manufacturing output declined by 4.4 percent in

March from 3.9 percent a month ago.

Outlook

• The US dollar is expected to strengthen this week, on the back of rising uncertainty

over Euro Zone debt concerns which will boost demand for the low-yielding dollar. On

account of this, coupled with weak market sentiments, we expect the Indian Rupee to

trade with a depreciation bias during the week.

Weekly Technical Levels

• USD/INR MCX May: Support 53.20/53.10 Resistance 54.30/ 54.82 (CMP:53.92)

• US Dollar Index: Support 80.0/79.70 Resistance 80.75/ 82.0(CMP:80.52 )

76.5

48.0

49.0

50.0

51.0

52.0

53.0

54.0

$/INR - Spot

Page 11: Commodities & Currencies Weekly Trackerweb.angelbackoffice.com/Research_ContentManagement/commodit… · Commodities Weekly Tracker Monday | May 14 2012 Silver WeeklyPricePerformance

Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 14 2012

EuroWeekly Price Performance

• On a weekly basis, the Euro traded lower by more than 1 percent.

• The Euro touched a low of 1.2903 and ended its trading session at 1.2915 last

week.

Factors that influenced movement in the Euro

• Rising political uncertainty in Europe .

• Increasing risk that Greece could exit the Euro Zone and the European Union.

• In addition to this, poor sentiments in the global markets.

• Strength in the US dollar also exerted further downside pressure on the

currency last week.

News

1.26

1.27

1.28

1.29

1.30

1.31

1.32

1.33

1.34

1.35

Euro/$ - Spot

News

• Greek political leaders was not successful to form a ruling coalition which

increased tensions over the risk of the economy might exit the Euro Zone and

the European Union.

• German Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives faced a severe defeat in an

election in Germany's most populous state on Sunday.

Outlook

• The Euro is expected to trade with a negative bias during the week on the back

of rising tensions with respect to Europe’s debt crisis with Greece being the

matter of concerns. Additionally, strength in the US dollar and weak market

sentiments will also act as a negative factor for the currency.

Weekly Technical Levels

• EURO/USD SPOT : Support 1.2855/1.2798 Resistance 1.3018/1.3122

(CMP:1.2875 )

63.5

64.5

65.5

66.5

67.5

68.5

69.5

70.5

EURO/INR - Spot

Page 12: Commodities & Currencies Weekly Trackerweb.angelbackoffice.com/Research_ContentManagement/commodit… · Commodities Weekly Tracker Monday | May 14 2012 Silver WeeklyPricePerformance

Chana

Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 14, 2012

Weekly Price Performance

• Chana prices extended gains of the previous week owing to demand from the local

stockists and settled 1.5% and 2.6% higher w-o-w. Drop in output estimates

coupled with lower supplies from Rajasthan also supported bulls in the market.

Chana output revised down further - Third Advance estimates

• According to the Third Advance estimates, Chana output in 2011-12 is estimated at

7.40 mn tn as compared to 7.66 mn tn as stated in second Advance estimates and

8.25 mn tn produced last year.

• The month of April and May is the peak harvesting period in Rajasthan, Although

harvesting has begun in April in this third largest producing state, the pace has

been very slow due to drop in output by more than 20%.

Measures by the Forward Market Commission to curb volatility

NCDEX on May 9, 2012 imposed further special margin of 20% (in cash) on long• NCDEX on May 9, 2012 imposed further special margin of 20% (in cash) on long

side on all running contracts and yet to be launched contracts w.e.f. 10.05.12.

Considering the new margin, the total cash margin now stands at 35 % on long side.

• Penalty structure on delivery default by sellers is revised to 1.5% + the difference

between the FSP and the average of the 3 highest of the last Spot prices of 5

succeeding days after the expiry of contract (E+1 to E+5 days), if the average price

so determined is higher than FSP; else this component will be zero.

• Maximum final validity period for Chana (dry) has been revised to 4 months from 7

months and for Chana(Cold) to 6 months from 9 months. Revalidations are not

allowed in case of Chana ( dry) one revalidation allowed for Chana (Cold)

Outlook

• Chana prices may extend gains of the previous week owing to buying by the local

stockists and fears of lower output. However, in the long term with lower

availability and rise in consumption prices are likely to remain firm. Positive Kharif

pulses sowing report may however cap sharp gains .

Weekly Strategy

• Buy NCDEX June Chana between 4280-4290, SL-4140, target 4440/4550.

Page 13: Commodities & Currencies Weekly Trackerweb.angelbackoffice.com/Research_ContentManagement/commodit… · Commodities Weekly Tracker Monday | May 14 2012 Silver WeeklyPricePerformance

Black Pepper

Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 14, 2012

Weekly Price Performance

• Lacklustre trades in the domestic mandis amidst reports of cheap imports of

Pepper into India from Vietnam led prices to trade with negative bias and settled

1.9% lower w-o-w. Futures mirrored the spot prices and ended 3.5% down w-o-w.

• Imports of pepper from Vietnam into India are expected to improve further owing

to cheap pepper there. Pepper prices in India are being offered at $7,600/tn while

Vietnam is offering its 550 GL at $6800/tn and Brazil at $7000/tn (source: Agri

watch)

Decline in Pepper imports by U.S.

• Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of the spice declined 14.8% in the

first 2 months of the year to 8810 tn as compared to 10344 tn in the same period

previous year . Imports of Pepper in the month of February declined by 16.8% to

3999 tn as compared to 4811 tn in the month of January 2012 .

Source :Peppertradeboard

3999 tn as compared to 4811 tn in the month of January 2012 .

Global and Domestic exports

• Exports of Pepper from Malaysia during Jan – Feb 2012 remained lower at 1110

tn ,43% down as compared to 1962 tn last year. Exports of Pepper from Indonesia

in 2011 witnessed a sharp decline of 42% at 36500 tn as compared to 62,600 tn in

2010. Exports of Pepper from Vietnam during Jan 2012 to Feb 15, 2012 stood at

6736 tn up 16.3 percent as compared to corresponding period last year.

• Exports of Pepper from India in the first two months of the year stood around

5800 tn according to International Pepper Community (IPC).

Outlook

• Pepper prices are expected to trade bearish on account of fragile demand from

the overseas buyers and imports of cheaper Pepper from Vietnam into India. Any

reports with respect to fresh arrivals of Pepper from Malaysia is lalso ikely to

pressurize prices. Fresh arrivals from Malaysia will commence shortly.

Weekly Strategy

• Sell NCDEX June Pepper between 38150-38200, SL-38980, Target 36850/36300

Page 14: Commodities & Currencies Weekly Trackerweb.angelbackoffice.com/Research_ContentManagement/commodit… · Commodities Weekly Tracker Monday | May 14 2012 Silver WeeklyPricePerformance

Turmeric

Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 14, 2012

Weekly Price Performance

• Sharp fall in the Spot prices led farmers to bring lesser quantity of Turmeric into

the domestic . This led availability of the Turmeric to decline causing prices to

firm. Prices settled 11% higher w-o-w. Reports of buying of Turmeric by the

government around 5000/qtl also added to the bullish sentiments.

• Futures traced the Spot prices and settled 6.6% higher w-o-w.

Decline in fresh arrivals in major mandis

• Average daily fresh arrivals in Nizamabad have reduced to 7-8 thousand bags as

compared to 1-122 thousand bags last week while that in Duggiralla, Warangal

and Cuddapah sum to 10,000 bags, Sangli 8,000 bags and the largest producing

state Erode is witnessing arrivals of 8-10 thousand bags.(each bag weighs 70-75

kgs).

Turmeric production to touch historical high in 2012

Source: Spot market sources

Turmeric production to touch historical high in 2012

• Production of Turmeric is expected to touch historical level of 90 lakh bags in

2011-12 season. Production of turmeric in Erode in 2011-12 is expected to rise

57% to 55 lakh bags as compared to 35 lakh bags in 2010-11.

Exports of Turmeric at historical high of 67,000 tonnes

• Exports of turmeric during April 2011 to January 2012 rose 69% to 67,000 tonnes

as compared to 39,600 tonnes in the same period previous year.

• The target set by the Spices board have already been achieved and has touched

new historical high of 67,000 tonnes during Apr 2011 to Jan 2012.

Outlook

• Turmeric prices are expected to witness selling pressure due to long liquidation by

the market participants and expectation of rise in the supplies in the domestic

market eyeing high prices.

Weekly Strategy• Buy NCDEX June Turmeric between 3890-3910, SL-3770 Target 4200/4288

Page 15: Commodities & Currencies Weekly Trackerweb.angelbackoffice.com/Research_ContentManagement/commodit… · Commodities Weekly Tracker Monday | May 14 2012 Silver WeeklyPricePerformance

Jeera

Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 14, 2012

Weekly Price Performance

• Jeera Spot prices remained firm owing to demand from the local and overseas

buyers and settled 1.8% higher w-o-w. Futures traced the Spot prices and

remained firm in most part of the week but declined in the last two days of the

week on account of long liquidation by the market participants

Sowing of jeera in Syria and Turkey completed

• Sowing of jeera in Syria and Turkey has completed and according to the spot

market sources crop might be lesser by around 22-25%. Clear updates with

respect to output there will be known by end of May.

• Prices of jeera in the international market of Syrian origin are being offered at

$3300/tonne while Indian jeera is being offered at $2600/tonne.

Domestic updates

• Arrivals in the domestic market still seen around 25-27 thousand bags as

Source: Spices Board of India

• Arrivals in the domestic market still seen around 25-27 thousand bags as

compared to 18-20 thousand bags on an average during this period.

• Production of jeera this season is expected to touch 40 lakh bags according to the

spot market sources a rise of 37.9%as compared to 29 lakh bags in 2011 (each bag

weighs 55kgs). Domestic consumption of jeera however hovers around 22-25 lakh

bags.

• Exports of Jeera during April 2011 to January 2012 rose by 54% to 34,500 tonnes

as compared to 22,450 tonnes in the same period previous year. Exports for the

month of January 2012 however witnessed a decline of 40% month and month to

3,000 tonnes.

Outlook

• Jeera prices are expected to remain firm in the early part of the week owing to

demand from local stockists but might witness selling pressure as arrivals might

improve towards the end of the week tracking higher rates.

Weekly Strategy• Buy NCDEX June Jeera between 13600-13650, SL-13180, Target 14300/14700

Page 16: Commodities & Currencies Weekly Trackerweb.angelbackoffice.com/Research_ContentManagement/commodit… · Commodities Weekly Tracker Monday | May 14 2012 Silver WeeklyPricePerformance

Soybean

Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 14, 2012

Weekly price performance

• Better sowing prospect of Soybean in U.S. and thereby anticipation of better

output this season led prices to settle 4.81% lower w-o-w. Decline in the Soymeal

exports from U.S. also led prices to dip. NCDEX Soybean Futures traced the

international prices and settled 6.8% lower w-o-w. Further, change in the Final

validly period for Soybean also added support to the bears in the market.

Exports of Oil meals for April 2012 down 22%- SOPA

• Export of oil meals during Apr 2012 declined by 22% to 4 lakh tn as compared to

5.13 lakh tn in Apr 2011, according to data released by SOPA on Friday. Although

Soymeal exports were up marginally by 2.8% compared to Apr 2011, mustard

meal and castor seed meal witnessed a sharp fall.

• Exports in the last 5 months (Dec 2011 till April 2012) are above the average of

4.6 lakh tonnes made in last 13 months owing to depreciation in the rupee.

Source: SEA of India ; Note: Exports in Lakh tonnes

Global Updates

• U.S. weekly exports of Soybean declined for the second consecutive week by 22%

to 4.66 lakh tonnes as compared to previous week.

• As per US Crop weekly progress report, soybean plantation was 24% as compared

to 22% forecast.

• However, Chinese Soybean imports for the month of May 2012 are likely to be

around 5.7 mln tn as compared to 4.7 mln tn in the month of April 2012

Outlook

• Although, demand supply fundamentals point towards further upside in the

medium term, in the short term, we expect the entire edible oil complex to

witness further correction on account of lower oil meal export figures that

witnessed 22% drop mainly due to disparity in crushing. Prices may also take cues

form US planting data and USDA crop report to be released on Thursday.

Strategy

• Sell NCDEX June Soybean between 3380-3400, SL-3500, target 3240/3200

Page 17: Commodities & Currencies Weekly Trackerweb.angelbackoffice.com/Research_ContentManagement/commodit… · Commodities Weekly Tracker Monday | May 14 2012 Silver WeeklyPricePerformance

Refine Soy Oil and Crude Palm Oil

Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 14, 2012

Weekly price performance

• Expectation of better crop in U.S resulting from better crop progress led CBOT Soy

Oil prices to continue its bearish trend and settled 2.6% lower. Lingering political

uncertainty in the Euro zone and weak economic data in China also led bears to gain

power. Refined Soy Oil Futures in NCDEX also settled in the red tracking

international prices amidst fragile demand in the domestic market. Prices settled 3%

lower w-o-w.

• Lower palm oil exports from Malaysia along with selling in the entire Edible Oil

complex led BMD Palm Oil as well as CPO to witness further selling pressure and

settled 2.4% lower w-o-w while MCX CPO Futures settled 3.5% lower.

Global Scenario

• According to SGS exports of Palm Oil from Malaysia during 1-10th May 2012 declined

by 14.2% to 4.19 lakh tn as compared to 4.88 lakh tn during 1st -10th May 2011.by 14.2% to 4.19 lakh tn as compared to 4.88 lakh tn during 1st -10th May 2011.

Malaysia palm Oil stocks declined by 7% to 1.82mln tn in April 2012.

• Indonesia is expected to raise is expected to raise its export tax for the month of

May 2012 to 19.5% from 18 % in April 2012 an effort to secure domestic supplies,

boost downstream industries and reduce volatility in the cooking oil prices. Further,

seasonally lower yields of Palm Oil may further crunch supplies in the coming

weeks.

Domestic Scenario

• The import of vegetable oils during Apr 2012 stood at 8.97 lakh tn as compared to

4.36lakh tn in Apr 2011. Import of Soybean Oil was the highest in the month of April

2012 and stood at 2.16 lakh tonnes as compared to 31250 tn in the same period

previous year. The overall import of vegetable oils during Nov 11 – Apr 12 stood at

46.03 lakh tn a rise of 32% as against last year.

Strategy: Refine Soy Oil

• Sell NCDEX June Refined Soy Oil between 742-745, SL-752, target 725/720

Strategy : Crude palm Oil (CPO)

• Sell MCX June CPO between 598-600, SL-608, target 585/580.

Source: Reuters

Page 18: Commodities & Currencies Weekly Trackerweb.angelbackoffice.com/Research_ContentManagement/commodit… · Commodities Weekly Tracker Monday | May 14 2012 Silver WeeklyPricePerformance

Sugar

Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 14, 2012

Weekly Price Performance

• NCDEX Sugar prices settled on a positive note in the last week owing to buying by

the local stockists at lower levels due to summer season. However, LIFFE Sugar

Futures continued its bearish trend and touched a 20 month low owing to

sufficient availability of sweetener in the international market.

Acreage in Maharashtra expected to decline in 2012-13 season

• Sugarcane acreage in Maharashtra is expected to decline due to inadequate

irrigation facility and drought in some of the key growing areas. Maharashtra

sugar output may decline to 8 mln tn in 2012-13 from 8.9 mln tn in 2011-12.

• For 2012-13 season, sugar planting is nearing its end and 48.61 lakh hectares have

been covered as on 4th may 2012 against 47.61 lakh hectares covered last year.

• India produced 25.1 mn tn sugar between Oct- Apr period, up 2.5 mn tn produced

last year. Considering the planting figures and climatic conditions, India islast year. Considering the planting figures and climatic conditions, India is

expected to produce 24.5-25 mn tn sugar in 2012-13 season compared to

estimated 26 mn tn in the current season.

Global Updates

• According to the International Sugar Organization (ISO), the global sugar surplus is

forecast to halve to around 3 million tonnes in 2012/13 (October-September)

from a surplus of 6.5 million tonnes in 2011/12.

Outlook

• In the domestic markets, we expect prices to trade with upward bias on account

of rising demand coupled with positive sentiments with respect to exports.

However, sharp upside may be capped on the back of sufficient supplies and

lower international prices that is making exports unattractive.

• Further, with global sugar surplus halving prices may find support and strengthen

in the international market.

Strategy

• Buy NCDEX June Sugar between 2890-2880, SL-2850, target 2920-2950.Source: ICAR

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Kapas/Cotton

Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 14, 2012

Weekly Price Performance

• After remaining firm in the last few sessions NCDEX April Kapas 2013 witnessed

long liquidation and ended 10% lower w-o-w. ICE Cotton extended losses and

settled 8%lower on account of sufficient supplies globally.

CAB revised Indian Cotton balance sheet- Ending stocks estimated lower

• Cotton Advisory Board revised upward its output estimates for 2011-12 season at

347 lakh bales while its lowered ending stocks to 25 lakh bales on the back record

high exports that touched 115 lakh bales. Arrivals of Cotton as on 2nd May, 2012

stood at 300 lakh bales against 308.2 lakh bales arrived during the same period

last year.

Record Cotton 2012-13 global stocks -USDA

• World 2012/13 cotton ending stocks at a record 73.75 million (480-lb) bales, up

over 10 percent from the 2011/12 level. Stocks-to-use ratio is projected to rise toover 10 percent from the 2011/12 level. Stocks-to-use ratio is projected to rise to

32 percent well above the last three seasons, but only slightly above the 10-year

average of 30 percent.

China imports to drive world Cotton Trade- ICAC

• The International Cotton Advisory Committee secretariat said in a monthly report

that the boost in Chinese imports will more than double its cotton stocks to 5

million tonnes in 2011/12, and shipments from India, Brazil and Australia could

reach record levels.

Outlook

• Kapas prices may witness further selling owing to long liquidation by the market

participants tracking bearishness in the international market owing to rise in the

global ending stocks. However, expectations of lower area next season in key

growing nations may cap sharp downside in the prices.

Strategy

• Sell NCDEX April Kapas between 992-1000, SL-11055, target 920/900.

Page 20: Commodities & Currencies Weekly Trackerweb.angelbackoffice.com/Research_ContentManagement/commodit… · Commodities Weekly Tracker Monday | May 14 2012 Silver WeeklyPricePerformance

Thank You!

Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday May 14, 2012

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