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Welcomes you to this informative Former COMBOG Chairperson Former Board Member Member of Capital Markets Forum Former Board Member Member of President’s Council Commercial Real Estate | CMBS Specialists Brought to you by:

CMBS MARKET OVERVIEW1stsss.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/CREW-Webinar.pdf · 2015. 11. 17. · CMBS MARKET OVERVIEW 2 Speaking: Ann Hambly, 1st Service Solutions Ann Hambly created

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Page 1: CMBS MARKET OVERVIEW1stsss.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/CREW-Webinar.pdf · 2015. 11. 17. · CMBS MARKET OVERVIEW 2 Speaking: Ann Hambly, 1st Service Solutions Ann Hambly created

Welcomes you to this informative

Former COMBOG

Chairperson

Former Board Member

Member of Capital Markets

Forum

Former Board Member

Member of President’s

Council

Commercial Real Estate | CMBS Specialists

Brought to you by:

Page 2: CMBS MARKET OVERVIEW1stsss.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/CREW-Webinar.pdf · 2015. 11. 17. · CMBS MARKET OVERVIEW 2 Speaking: Ann Hambly, 1st Service Solutions Ann Hambly created

CMBS MARKET OVERVIEW

2

Speaking: Ann Hambly, 1st Service Solutions Ann Hambly created 1st Service Solutions in 2005 recognizing the need for a borrower advocate in

commercial real estate. Hambly has over 30 years of commercial real estate servicing experience and has

served as the CEO of servicing for Prudential, Bank of New York, Nomura, and Bank of America. In 2011

she was recognized as one of the most influential woman in commercial real estate by National Real

Estate Investor. She has also been recognized as one of the top 25 CEOs across all industries in a book

called True Leaders. She has been at the forefront of setting industry standards for commercial real estate

and has led many initiatives for industry groups that included attorneys, rating agencies, master and

special servicers, trustees, and bondholders.

Page 3: CMBS MARKET OVERVIEW1stsss.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/CREW-Webinar.pdf · 2015. 11. 17. · CMBS MARKET OVERVIEW 2 Speaking: Ann Hambly, 1st Service Solutions Ann Hambly created

ǁ‖ Outstanding Real Estate Loans = $2.9 Trillion

3

MARKET OVERVIEW

Page 4: CMBS MARKET OVERVIEW1stsss.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/CREW-Webinar.pdf · 2015. 11. 17. · CMBS MARKET OVERVIEW 2 Speaking: Ann Hambly, 1st Service Solutions Ann Hambly created

4

LOANS IN SPECIAL SERVICING

Page 5: CMBS MARKET OVERVIEW1stsss.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/CREW-Webinar.pdf · 2015. 11. 17. · CMBS MARKET OVERVIEW 2 Speaking: Ann Hambly, 1st Service Solutions Ann Hambly created

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DEFAULTS BY YEAR OF ORIGINATION

Page 6: CMBS MARKET OVERVIEW1stsss.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/CREW-Webinar.pdf · 2015. 11. 17. · CMBS MARKET OVERVIEW 2 Speaking: Ann Hambly, 1st Service Solutions Ann Hambly created

ǁ‖ Loan underwriting !  Pro forma rents !  Interest only – no amortization !  No reserves – required new borrower capital to fund TI, LC

ǁ‖ Bonds

!  90% of the loan was put in AAA !  Prior to 2005 only 70% of the loan was put in AAA !  Creation of the Super senior AAA

ǁ‖ Market stress – volume !  In 1995 CMBS issuance was $14 Billion !  In 2007 CMBS issuance was $230 Billion

ǁ‖ 88% of the entire CMBS portfolio was originated in the years 2005 - 2007

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WHY DID LOANS ORIGINATED IN 05, 06 AND 07 DEFAULT?

Page 7: CMBS MARKET OVERVIEW1stsss.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/CREW-Webinar.pdf · 2015. 11. 17. · CMBS MARKET OVERVIEW 2 Speaking: Ann Hambly, 1st Service Solutions Ann Hambly created

$35 $49

$93

$130 $132

$6

$- $20 $40 $60 $80

$100 $120 $140

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

2011 - 2018

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CMBS MATURITIES

ǁ‖ How are we going to refinance all this?

Page 8: CMBS MARKET OVERVIEW1stsss.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/CREW-Webinar.pdf · 2015. 11. 17. · CMBS MARKET OVERVIEW 2 Speaking: Ann Hambly, 1st Service Solutions Ann Hambly created

ǁ‖ Loan originator/ primary servicer !  Primary borrower interface

ǁ‖  ǁ‖ Master Servicer

!  Has to be rated !  Has advancing obligations !  Typically a large bank

ǁ‖ Special Servicer !  Handles defaulted loans !  Is appointed by the CCR !  Top 3 control majority of the market

ǁ‖ Controlling class representative (“CCR”) !  Lowest rated bond holder at any given time !  Appoints the special servicer

ǁ‖ Rating agencies !  Rates the bonds and servicers

ǁ‖ Trustee !  Provides accounting, reporting and cash to the bond holders !  Is a back-up advancer if the Master servicer defaults

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THE PARTIES IN A CMBS STRUCTURE

Page 9: CMBS MARKET OVERVIEW1stsss.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/CREW-Webinar.pdf · 2015. 11. 17. · CMBS MARKET OVERVIEW 2 Speaking: Ann Hambly, 1st Service Solutions Ann Hambly created

ǁ‖ Top 4 Servicers – servicing more than 80% of all CMBS loans

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WHO ARE THE SPECIAL SERVICERS?

Page 10: CMBS MARKET OVERVIEW1stsss.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/CREW-Webinar.pdf · 2015. 11. 17. · CMBS MARKET OVERVIEW 2 Speaking: Ann Hambly, 1st Service Solutions Ann Hambly created

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HISTORY OF CMBS DEFAULT RESOLUTION

$8.8

$39.5 $45.3 $44.3

$- $10.0 $20.0 $30.0 $40.0 $50.0

2009 2010 2011 2012

In billions

Page 11: CMBS MARKET OVERVIEW1stsss.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/CREW-Webinar.pdf · 2015. 11. 17. · CMBS MARKET OVERVIEW 2 Speaking: Ann Hambly, 1st Service Solutions Ann Hambly created

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CMBS RESOLUTION TYPES

Modification or Reinstated

54% Note Sale

9%

Foreclosure 11%

Loan Paid in Full 14%

DPO 12%

Page 12: CMBS MARKET OVERVIEW1stsss.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/CREW-Webinar.pdf · 2015. 11. 17. · CMBS MARKET OVERVIEW 2 Speaking: Ann Hambly, 1st Service Solutions Ann Hambly created

ǁ‖ What Factors into the Special Servicer’s Decision to Modify or Foreclose?

!  Current value of the property – LTV ǁ‖ 

!  Remaining term of the loan ǁ‖ 

!  Will value recover to appropriate LTV by maturity date ǁ‖ 

!  NPV of the foreclosure alternative •  Length of time to foreclose •  Cash flow versus advances •  Other considerations and costs

!  Special servicer’s fee opportunities •  Affiliates •  Bond position

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MODIFY OR FORECLOSE?

Page 13: CMBS MARKET OVERVIEW1stsss.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/CREW-Webinar.pdf · 2015. 11. 17. · CMBS MARKET OVERVIEW 2 Speaking: Ann Hambly, 1st Service Solutions Ann Hambly created

ǁ‖ Dodd Frank !  Risk retention !  Operating Advisor !  PCCRA

ǁ‖ Special servicer’s use of affiliates

ǁ‖ What 2.0 didn’t address !  REMIC restrictions on modifying loans !  Consistent approach to special servicer decisions

13

CMBS 2.0

Page 14: CMBS MARKET OVERVIEW1stsss.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/CREW-Webinar.pdf · 2015. 11. 17. · CMBS MARKET OVERVIEW 2 Speaking: Ann Hambly, 1st Service Solutions Ann Hambly created

ǁ‖ DSCR at Issuance

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HISTORY OF UNDERWRITING STANDARDS

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2011 2012

DSC

R

Page 15: CMBS MARKET OVERVIEW1stsss.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/CREW-Webinar.pdf · 2015. 11. 17. · CMBS MARKET OVERVIEW 2 Speaking: Ann Hambly, 1st Service Solutions Ann Hambly created

ǁ‖ Underwriting back to ‘07’ levels !  Pro forma underwriting !  IO loans !  Mezz loans

ǁ‖ Defaults on 2012 originations

ǁ‖ How long will it take?

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BACK TO THE FUTURE

Page 16: CMBS MARKET OVERVIEW1stsss.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/CREW-Webinar.pdf · 2015. 11. 17. · CMBS MARKET OVERVIEW 2 Speaking: Ann Hambly, 1st Service Solutions Ann Hambly created

ǁ‖ Resources: !  Brochure downloadable from our website

!  Informational webinars on our website

!  Recent Articles under the news tab on our website

!  Videos on our website

!  Operating advisor rating report downloadable from our website

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CONTACT INFORMATION AND RESOURCES

ǁ‖ 1ST SERVICE SOLUTIONS ǁ‖ 1701 W. Northwest Hwy., Suite 100 ǁ‖ Grapevine, TX 76051 ǁ‖ (817) 756-7227 ǁ‖ www.1stsss.com

‌‌ Ann Hambly ‌‌ [email protected]