Upload
others
View
0
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Andrew WatsonRegional Director
Bureau of Meteorology : South Australian Regional Office
Climate Q & A: The Skeptical Questions and Scientific Answers : 8 August 2008
Climate ObservationsClimate ObservationsAre they the truth?Are they the truth?
Bureau of MeteorologyAustralia’s National Meteorological Service
Meteorology Act (1955) has as its highest priority ; “the taking and recording of meteorological observations … for thepurposes of meteorology.” Bureau holds the national climate database
Bureau instrumentation abides by WMO standards Temperature sensors (thermometers) tolerance < 0.4C Rainfall sensors (rain gauges) tolerance < 6%
All instruments are checked and re-calibrated every 6 months
New technologies (past 10 – 15 years) are more accurate thanconventional recording methods
Instrument exposures strictly adhered to at Climate Reference Stations “Stephenson Screen” at 1.2 m above ground, oriented north-south No shielding by structures, trees, allowing for free air flow Rain gauge at 0.3 m above ground, no obstruction within 1: 2 slope
South Australian ReferenceSouth Australian ReferenceClimate StationsClimate Stations
= Field Stations= Co-op Stations= Rainfall Stations = AWS= Hydro Stations= Tide Gauges
= Reference Climate Station
Ceduna Meteorological Office Instrument Enclosure
Woomera Meteorological Office Instrument Enclosure
Adelaide Airport Meteorological Office Instrument Enclosure
Mt Gambier Meteorological Office Instrument Enclosure
Temperature, rainfall trends, Ceduna : 1956 - 2007 (source BOM)
y = -1.2758x + 321.37
y = 0.0134x + 23.157
y = 0.006x + 10.319
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
19
56
19
58
19
60
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
Deg
rees C
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Millim
etr
es
Rain Max Temp Min Temp Linear (Rain) Linear (Max Temp) Linear (Min Temp)
Temperature, rainfall trends, Woomera : 1950 - 2007 (source BOM)
y = -0.7541x + 206.79
y = 0.0225x + 25.052
y = 0.019x + 12.123
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
19
50
19
52
19
54
19
56
19
58
19
60
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
Deg
rees C
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Millim
etr
es
Rain Max Temp Min Temp Linear (Rain) Linear (Max Temp) Linear (Min Temp)
Temperature, rainfall trends, Mt Gambier : 1953 - 2007 (source BOM)
y = 0.4464x + 684.29
y = 0.015x + 18.632
y = 0.0255x + 7.4586
0
5
10
15
20
25
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
Deg
rees
C
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Mill
imet
res
Rain Max Temp Min Temp Linear (Rain) Linear (Max Temp) Linear (Min Temp)
Temperature, rainfall trends, Adelaide Airport : 1956 - 2007 (source BOM)
y = -0.2404x + 452.17
y = 0.0152x + 21.04
y = 0.0213x + 10.777
0
5
10
15
20
25
19
56
19
58
19
60
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
Deg
rees C
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Millim
etr
es
Rain Max Temp Min Temp Linear (Rain) Linear (Max Temp) Linear (Min Temp)
South Australian mean temperature trend : 1910 – 2007 (source BOM)
Australian Temperature TrendsAustralian Temperature Trends
National mean temperature trend : 1910 - 2007 (source BoM)
Maximum temperature trends (0C/10yrs), Australia : 1910 - 2007 (source BOM)
Maximum temperature trends (0C/10yrs), Australia : 1950 - 2007 (source BOM)
Minimum temperature trends (0C/10yrs), Australia : 1910 - 2007 (source BOM)
Minimum temperature trends (0C/10yrs), Australia : 1950 - 2007 (source BOM)
Global Temperature MeasurementsGlobal Temperature Measurements
Global mean temperature trend : 1880 - 2007 (source NOAA)
Australian Rainfall TrendsAustralian Rainfall Trends
Spatial rainfall trends (mm/10yrs), Australia : 1900 - 2007 (source BOM)
Spatial rainfall trends (mm/10yrs), Australia : 1950 - 2007 (source BOM)
Australian Evaporation TrendsAustralian Evaporation Trends
Spatial evaporation trends (mm/yr), Australia : 1970 - 2007 (source BOM)
Atmospheric Air PressureAtmospheric Air Pressure and Rainfall Trends and Rainfall Trends
Autumn Mean Sea Level Pressure, rainfall trends, Ceduna : 1956 - 2007 (source BOM)
y = 0.0334x + 1017.3
y = -1.0267x + 94.997
1012
1013
1014
1015
1016
1017
1018
1019
1020
1021
1022
19
56
19
58
19
60
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Rain MSLP Linear (MSLP) Linear (Rain)
MSLP vs Rain :
Correlation : -0.60
Winter Mean Sea Level Pressure, rainfall trends, Ceduna : 1956 - 2007 (source BOM)
y = 0.0173x + 1019.1
y = -0.3274x + 113.59
1012
1014
1016
1018
1020
1022
1024
19
56
19
58
19
60
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Rain MSLP Linear (MSLP) Linear (Rain)
MSLP vs Rain :
Correlation : -0.66
10161016
10081008
10101010
10121012
10141014
HH
LL
Autumn MSLP Pattern, 1956 - 1965
Autumn MSLP Pattern, 1998 - 2007
10181018
10161016
10101010
10121012
10141014
HH
LL
10201020
Winter MSLP Pattern, 1956 - 1965
10181018
10161016
10121012
10141014
LL
10161016
10141014
HH
Winter MSLP Pattern, 1998 - 2007
10181018
10161016
10121012
10141014
LL
10161016
10201020HH
Average Annual Rainfall : South Australia
300 mm
300 mm
10% reduction in annual rainfall : South Australia
300 mm
300 mm
20% reduction in annual rainfall : South Australia
300 mm
300 mm
30% reduction in annual rainfall : South Australia
300 mm
300 mm
Thank youThank you