Climate Change and the Tart Cherry Industry in the Great Lakes Region:

Introducing the Pileus Project:

18 January 2005

What is the Pileus Project?

Components of the Pileus Project

Corn & Wheat Quality

Compre-hensiveGolf

Skiing Tart Cherry

Industry

TOURISM AGRICULTURE

Climate

Pileus Project Players MSU Core Team

Dr. Jeffrey AndresenDr. Roy Black

Tracy Beedy

Dr. Costanza Zavalloni

Agriculture

Galina Guentchev

Krerk Piromsopa

Dr. Julie WinklerDr. Jeffrey Andresen

Climate

Lori Martin

Charles Shih

Jeonghee Noh

Dr. Don HolecekDr. Sarah Nicholls

Tourism

Administration/Coordination/CommunicationsDr. Peter SousounisJeanne Bisanz

Overall Project Objectives (Agriculture)

• Cultivate research partnerships with tart industry stakeholders to establish research goals, identify specific needs, and provide expertise.

• Create physically-based models to quantify past and projected impacts of climate and climate variability on the tart cherry industry.

• Develop decision-support tools for weather and climate-related risk management for tart cherry production, grain quality & the tourism/recreation industry.

Hart

Tree phenology?

Tart cherry production?

Economic cost of production?

Net returns over time?

The need for insurance?

How might past and potential future climates impact…..

Stakeholder are KEY

Cherry Marketing Institute

Northwest Horticulture Research Station

Cherry Bay, Inc.

National Agriculture Statistics Service

Tart Cherry Industry Task Force

Individual cherry growers

ClimateObservations

or Scenarios

Ecological or Activity

(e.g. fruit tree or tourism/recreation)

Model

Economic Model(s)

Risk/Decision Making

/Policy Framework

Socioeconomic Scenarios

Land use change scenarios

Solar radiation

Vapor pressure

Phenology ET, PET Soil water

Disease pressure

Yield

Winter mortality

LAI

TemperaturePrecipitation

Simulated vs. Observed Reproductive Phenology Southwest Lower MI, 1976-2003

Stage

4 - Tight Cluster

6 - First White

7 - First Bloom

8 - Bloom

9 - Petal Fall

8

5

4

26

9

- 1.60

- 1.50

- 3.20

2.75

0.56

6.40

3.11

4.40

4.25

3.90

2 - Side Green 10

- 1.44 2.55

Weather data: Eau Claire, MI

Location of observations: SWMREC and Berrien County

Number of observations

Mean difference

(days)

Mean absolute difference

(days)

Grand Traverse Bay - Freezing by Decade 1851-2000

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1851-60 1861-70 1871-80 1881-90 1891-19001901-10 1911-20 1921-30 1931-40 1941-50 1951-60 1961-70 1971-80 1981-90 1991-00

Decade

Years of Freezing

Yrs. BayFroze

Simulated historical day of the year of Stage 2 ‘Side Green’

(red line = 9 year moving average)

Bud Stages and Damage Temperatures

Source pictures: Mark Longtroth and Dennis and Howell

Side green Tight cluster

-12.2 C - 6.7 C - 5.6 C - 4.4 C

Green tip

Threshold temperatures from Dennis and Howell, 1974

Open cluster

Projected Climate of the Great Lakes Region

• Mean air temperatures are projected to increase 1-3C by the end of this century.

• Projected trends in precipitation are unclear, with some climate simulations suggesting a wetter climate and others a drier climate.

• Future changes in the frequency and magnitude of weather extremes, a key factor for cherry production, remain unknown.

Simulated fraction of

viable buds in the

period 1990-2050

Fraction

Average Annual Returns ($)0 200 400 600

0

.05

.1

Projected Average Annual Returns per AcreSouthwest Lower MI (2020-2050)

per Acre

• Development of simple crop models that can be used to evaluate the impact of future climate trends and variability on tart cherry production

• Providing a better understanding of historical climate trends, variability, and their past impacts on the tart cherry industry

• Explicit incorporation of climate into a framework that may assist in economic decision-making

Potential benefits of the Pileus Project

Questions?