CIWARA – Climate change Impacts on West African agriculture – a

Regional Assessment

An AgMIP research venture for the West Africa region

CIWARA = ?

• In the Bambara mythology, the ciwara is a laboring wild animal representing the creation of farming. Throughout the Manding area of West Africa, it symbolizes courage, selflessness and wisdom, and is awarded to meritorious workers

CIWARA: Goals

• G1. Substantially improve the characterization of food security risks due to climate variability and change in semi-arid and sub-humid West Africa.

• G2. Enhance the adaptive capacity of West African populations for changing environmental (biophysical, socio-economic) and technological conditions.

CIWARA: Sites

Country Site(district)

Rainfall (proxy for agro-ecological potential)

Population density(proxy for

intensification)

Lower Higher Lower Higher

Burkina Faso

Yatenga x xKenedougou x x

GhanaLawra/Jirapa x x

Tolon K. x x

MaliKoutiala x x

Bougouni x x

NigerKollo x xAguie x x

SenegalKaffrine x x

Nioro x x

CIWARA: Sites, aridity index

CIWARA: Sites, LGP

CIWARA: Sites, Rainfall

CIWARA: Sites, Population Density

CIWARA: Sites, Dominant Language

CIWARA: facts & numbers8 outputs:• Climates• Crops• Yields• Scales• Trade-offs• Farmers• Policy• Capacity

5 countries:• B. Faso• Ghana• Mali• Niger• Senegal

4 crops:• Maize• Millet• Sorghum• Peanut

3 crop models:• APSIM• DSSAT• SarraH

4 themes:• climate• crop• Economics• IT

3 CC themes:• RAPs• aggregation• uncertainty

3 capacity builing levels:

• 15 scientists

(senior + junior, male + female), 10 institutions (NARS, NHMS, NGO, ARO, academia, CGIAR, ARI), 10 students (2 /country)

CIWARA: Approach=f(theme, scale)

CIWARA: Objective 1, “climates”

• Objective: Assemble, curate and migrate local to regional climate, crop, economic data in a standard, open-access database

• Outcome: Adequate granularity is secured to ensure representativeness and relevance of the current and future assessments for West African conditions

• Lead: S.B. Traoré / Agrhymet• Timeline: Now-Mar 2013 (7 months)

CIWARA: Objective 2, “crops”

• Objective: Improve and compare crop models performances for West African millets, sorghums, and their supporting soils

• Outcome: Relevance of existing models to West African conditions is strengthened with key regional traits & responses incorporated, including enrichment of intra-specific agro-biodiversity in models

• Lead: J.B. Naab / SARI, P.S. Traoré / ICRISAT• Timeline: Now-Mar 2013 (7 months)

CIWARA: Objective 3, “yields”

• Objective: Generate contrasted yield baselines (2) and scenarios (4) for West African maize, millets, peanuts, and sorghums

• Outcome: Regional climate variability and change patterns (historical, projected) are translated into yield probabilities for representative germplasm, management practices, and locations

• Lead: J.B. Naab / SARI• Timeline: Jan-Jun 2013 (6 months)

CIWARA: Objective 4, “scales”

• Objective: Aggregate point-level yield probabilities to sub-national scale and assess uncertainty thereof against independent datasets

• Outcome: Sources of bias and uncertainty in aggregate production statistics (conversely: downscaled farm information services) are better understood for heterogeneous smallholder agricultural landscapes

• Lead: P.S. Traoré / ICRISAT, M. Adam / CIRAD• Timeline: Apr-Sep 2013 (6 months)

CIWARA: Objective 5, “trade-offs”

• Objective: Elicit representative agricultural pathways and quantify climate impacts using the Trade-Off Analysis (TOA)-MD tools

• Outcome: Sub-national socio-economic, technological trajectories subject to future climate forcing are simulated and used as reference in future regional assessments of climate change impacts

• Lead: I. Hathié / IPAR• Timeline: Apr-Sep 2013 (6 months)

CIWARA: Objective 6, “farmers”• Objective: Improve the granularity, relevance,

and spatial coverage of agro-meteorological advisories for smallholder farmers

• Outcome: Generic crop calendars and agro-meteorological advisories are refined into location-specific, ecotype-specific decision support tools, and scaled out from Mali to Senegal

• Lead: D.Z. Diarra / Meteo-Mali, O. Ndiaye / ANACIM

• Timeline: Apr-Dec 2013 (9 months)

CIWARA: Objective 7, “policy”

• Objective: Update selected policy instruments (e.g. NAPAs) with project results at national (5 countries), regional (ECOWAS) levels

• Outcome: West African policy makers are better informed about local impacts of climate variability, change, and can deploy adaptation and mitigation strategies that are more relevant and effective

• Lead: I. Hathié / IPAR• Timeline: Sep 2013 - Feb 2014 (5 months)

CIWARA: Objective 8, “capacity”

• Objective: Build regional research capacity for integrated climate change impacts assessments at scientist, graduate student levels

• Outcome: An “AgMIP alumni” core group is created with increased trans-disciplinary expertise and a new generation of future PhD graduates is in training within AgMIP and/or affiliated networks

• Lead: S.G.K. Adiku / UG• Timeline: now-Feb 2014 (18 months)

CIWARA: capacity gaps

BF GH ML NE SN

OI: Climate ? n ? y y

O II: Crops y y y y n

O III: Yields y y ? y n

O IV: Scales

n n y ? n

O V: Trade-off

n y n n y

O VI: Farmers

n n y n y

OV II: Policy

n y n ? Y

Identified student topicsTopic Host

UniversityLocal

SupervisorExternal

Supervisor Student name

Variability of weather X’tics relevant to Agric win the 20th

Century and CC

UGB, Saint Louis

Pr. Aliou Diop + Ousmane

Ndiaye

B. Sarr, Agrhymet, Niamey Bilal Sow

Defining production systems diversity to run crop models using expert knowledge, GIS

and household statistics

UCAD, DakarPr. Ali Mbaye +

Ibrahima Hathie

M. Adam + P.C.S. Traore, ICRISAT,

Bamako

to be identified

Integration of indigenous knowledge in meteorological

advisories to farmersU. Bamako Pr. Bayoko +

D.Z. DiarraS.B. Traore,

Agrhymet, Niameyto be

identified

Comparative effects of tillering and planning density on

predicted millet yield in APSIM + DSSAT

U. BamakoDr. M.

Kouressy + P.C.S. Traore

D.S.K. Maccarthy + M. Diancoumba, UG,

Kpong

F. Akinseye? - tbi

Simulation of crop growth risks and adaptation under variable C using modeling

approaches

UG, LegonPr. S.G.K.

Adiku + D.S.K. Maccarthy

Ousmane Ndiaye, ANACIM, Dakar tbi

Identified student topics (contd)Topic Host

UniversityLocal

SupervisorExternal

Supervisor Student name

Implications of CC on small holder farmers in the Guinea+

Sudan Savannah zones of West Africa (NR, Ghana & S.B.

Faso)

UDS, Tamale J. AmikuzunoM.Sanon + T. Lodoun

+ Pr. Tbi, Univ. Ouaga

tbi

Same as previous(UW, Ghana & W.B.Faso) Uni. Ouaga

Pr. tbi + M. Sanon + T.

Lodoun

J. Amikuzuno, UDS, Tamale tbi

Simulating soil water conservation methods on

millet yields with APSIM/DSSAT

Uni. Ouaga Pr. tbi P.I. Akponikpe, Uni. Parakou tbi

CC and adaptation strategies for agro-meteorological

servicesUni. Niamey Pr. tbi + B.

SarrD.Z. Diarra, Meteo-

Mali, Bamako tbi

tbd Uni. Niamey Pr. tbi + F. Dougbedji I. Hathie, IPAR, Dakar tbi

Simulating micro dosing effects on soil nutrients using

crop modelingUni. Niamey Prof. Xxx

/BenoitAdiku/ Dilys (UG,

Ghana) tbi

CIWARA: $ resources

Univ. Ghana: USD 165,741Agrhymet: USD 174,010

ICRISAT: USD 175,954NARES (x4): USD 186,167NHMS (x2): USD 98,113

_____________________Total: USD 799,986