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A New Trans Disciplinary Approach to Regional IntegratedA New Trans-Disciplinary Approach to Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Impact and Adaptation in Agricultural Systems

Roberto O. Valdivia & John M. AntleOregon State University

&AgMIP Regional Economics Leadership Team

TradeM Workshop, Vienna, Austria –September 24, 2014

World Science Community

1st Global Oct 2010650+ listserve members

2nd Global Oct 20113rd Global Oct 2012

Sub-Saharan Africa #3 4th Global Oct 2013

See www.agmip.org

South America #1 Wheat #2 South Asia #3

2RiceMaize

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AgMIP Goals

• Incorporate state-of-the-art climate, crop/livestock, and agricultural economic modelp , p/ , gimprovements into coordinated multi-model regional and global assessments of future climate impacts and adaptation and of other key aspects of food systems.

• Utilize multiple models, scenarios, locations, crops/livestock and participants to explore uncertainty and the impact of data and methodological choices.

• Collaborate with regional experts in agronomy, animal sciences, economics, and climate to build a strong basis for model applications, addressing key climate-related questions, adaptation priorities, and sustainable intensification.

• Improve scientific and adaptive capacity in modeling for major agricultural regions in the developing and developed world, with a focus on vulnerable regions.

• Improve agricultural data and enhance data-sharing based on their intercomparison and l ti i b t i tifi tievaluation using best scientific practices

• Develop modeling frameworks to identify and evaluate promising adaptation technologies and policies and to prioritize strategies.

AgMIP’s Activities and initiatives

AgMIP is an international community of 650+ climate scientists,agronomists,economists, and IT experts working to improve assessments of future food security

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Visit www.agmip.orgfor more information

Links to CCAFS, Global Yield Gap Atlas, ISI-MIP, Global Futures, MACSUR, et al.

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Two-Track Science Approach

Track 1: Model Improvement and IntercomparisonTrack 2: Climate Change Multi-Model Assessment

Enables testing of adaptation strategies

AgMIP’s RIA approach: user-driven and forward looking

• Key questions: • How can we do meaningful analysis of CC impact, adaptation

and mitigation?

• How can we communicate to decision makers?

• What is meaningful?

Stakeholders want to know impacts they care about

=> poverty, food security, health…

its not just about yield or aggregate production)its not just about yield or aggregate production)

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AgMIP’s RIA approach: Key features

• A protocol-based approach: rigorously documented so results can be li d d i d d h d i dreplicated and inter-compared, and methods improved

• Participatory: identification of impact indicators, choice of key systems, adaptations, design of future pathways and scenarios used

• A trans-disciplinary, systems-based approach: must include key features of current and possible future systems, including multiple crops, inter-crops, livestock and non agricultural sources of incomelivestock, and non-agricultural sources of income.

• Heterogeneity: must account for the diversity of systems, and the widely varying bio-physical and socio-economic conditions

• Vulnerability: must be possible to characterize the impacts on those farm households that are adversely impacted by climate change, as well as those that benefit from climate change.that benefit from climate change.

• Key uncertainties in climate, production system and economic dimensions of the analysis must be assessed and reported so that decision makers can understand them and use them to interpret the results of the analysis.

Coordinated Global and Regional Multi-Model Assessments –RCPs, SSPs, RAPs

GGCMI -- High-resolutionRRTs – Farming systems

biophysical and socioeconomic models

GGCMI High resolution gridded crop modeling for gap-filling and aggregation in each

region

Production systems and regional economics

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Global Economics –Model analysis of world and regional

prices

regional economics respond to price changes

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AgMIP’s Trans-disciplinary IA Approach

Parallel development of system design, data and modeling to couple ( )crop & livestock models with economic impact models (TOA-MD)

Climate data RCPs SSPs

Crop, Livestock Models

Relative yield distributions

E i I t M d l

Regional RAPs

Global & Regional Econ Models

Experiments, Surveys& Expert data

Global RAPs

Economic Impact Model(TOA-MD)

Economic, Environmental, Social

Impacts

Prices and Costs

Pathway linkages across scales

Note: solid boxes indicate variables determined by global socio-economic pathways and RAPs, dashed boxes indicate model outputs

Pathways & ScenariosModelsInput and output data

Antle et. al, 2014

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Linking Crop, Livestock and Economic Models: Importance of Heterogeneity: RIA

• Hypothesis: High degree of bio-physical & socio-economic h i l k l i i CC iheterogeneity plays a key role in assessing CC impact, vulnerability & adaptation in ag systems

• Most analysis averages data at level of political units such as counties, districts etc or larger

• E.g., in US & Kenya crop-based (ω)

systems: > 80% of variance in net

returns/ha in farm hh populations

is WITHIN such units

Can have small average gain or loss but substantial vulnerability!

(losses) 0

Effect of adaptation on reduced vulnerability to loss

Modeling Heterogeneous Impacts: the TOA-MD Model (tradeoffs.oregonstate.edu)

• A “parsimonious” model designed for ex ante impact assessment via i l i i i b i l i l dsimulation experiments using observational, experimental and

scenario data • simulates heterogeneous ag systems using the “Roy model” logic of the

micro-econometrics literature

• Can address the “three AgMIP core questions” of CCIA:g q

• Q1: what is climate sensitivity of current systems?

• Q2: what are future climate impacts w/o adaptation?

• Q3: how useful are prospective adaptations in the future? • what is the economic potential for adoption of alternative systems, what

are their economic, environmental and social impacts?

Antle, J.M., J.J. Stoorvogel and R. Valdivia. 2014. New Parsimonious Simulation Methods and Tools to Assess Future Food and Environmental Security of Farm Populations. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 369:20120280.

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Representative Representative Agricultural Pathways and Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios (RAPS): Scenarios (RAPS): A A TransTrans--Disciplinary Approach to Agricultural Model InterDisciplinary Approach to Agricultural Model Inter--comparison, Improvement and Climate Impact Assessmentcomparison, Improvement and Climate Impact Assessment

The global change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment◦ Earlier version: “Special Report on Emissions Scenarios” (SRES) linked

emissions to socio-economic development narratives and assumptionsemissions to socio economic development narratives and assumptions

IPCC process for new “pathway” concepts◦ RCPs: Representative Concentration Pathways -> Global climate models◦ SSPs: Shared Socio-Economic Pathways -> impact and vulnerability

assessmentassessment

RCPs, SSPs and RAPs

Representative Ag Pathways• economic & social development

narrativesnarratives• soil & water resource trends• agricultural technology trends• prices and costs of production• ag, mitigation & other policy

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Linking Linking AAgriculturegriculture--Specific Specific PPathways to SSPs:athways to SSPs:Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs)Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs)

-> Hierarchical structure (nested approach)

Global RAPs: Global Economic Models and other non-modeled global socio-economic conditions:◦ GDP, population & policy and trade, etc

-> Hierarchical structure (nested approach)

. SSPs: Framework for development of sectoral (e.g. agricultural) global and regional scenarios.

Regional RAPs: Allow us to include key drivers are likely to affect future bio-physical and socio-economic conditions: ◦ ag productivity trends, land use, policy,

regional development◦ farm size, system-specific productivity &

management, infrastructure, etc

AgMIP:Developing and implementing Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios (RAPS)

Yield or value

Yield orvalue

RAPS

Why do we need RAPs? : The AgMIP RIA Core Research Questions:

Q3Q2 Q1

Q3

Q2

RAPS

Price trends,Technology trends, etc

timecurrent future

Q1

Q3

timecurrent future

Q1: What is the sensitivity of current agricultural production systems to climate change? This q estion addresses the isolated impacts of climate changes ass ming that the prod ction s stem doesquestion addresses the isolated impacts of climate changes assuming that the production system does not change from its current state. Q2: What is the impact of climate change on future agricultural production systems? Assessment of climate impacts on the future production system, which will differ from the current production system due to development in the agricultural sectorQ3: What are the benefits of climate change adaptations? Assessment of the benefits of potential adaptation options in the future production system

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AgMIP Regional Teams – RAPS development

Sub-Saharan Africa South Asia

AgMIP Regional Teams – RAPS development

P i d f l i Mid t• Period of analysis: Mid-century

• Higher level Pathways: SSP2 No Global RAPs. Data from IMPACT model

(productivity and price trends)(p y p ) Some teams have used information from CCAFS

multi-country scenarios• Types of RAPs : Business as Usual (BAU)

Pessimistic Optimistic

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Indicators Pessimistic RAP1.1 If there is no change of mindset and way of doing business, food security situation will continue to worsen

Optimistic RAP 1.2 Favorable conditions for private and public investments in the agricultural sector will be created

Degradation +++ Extractive land use - - Investments in NRM, secure ownership

Size of cultivated Lack of labor limited investment Intensified production on less landSize of cultivated land

- - Lack of labor, limited investment options

- - Intensified production on less land

Herd size - - Shift towards goats + + Improved feed and management

Input prices + + + Lack of local manufacturing and raw material

+ + More players in processing industry against higher demand for inputs

I t L k f ff d bilit d t M k t i ti i t tInput use - - - Lack of affordability and returns + + Market incentives, investment security, appropriate support

Crop income - - - Low local production and competition with cheap imports

++ Increased income from higher production

Livestock income - - - Competition with cheap imports ++ High and unmet demand for livestock productsImproved quality productionImproved quality production

Crop – livestock product imports

+ + + While national production is declining, the demand actually increases

+/- Large potential to produce vs climatic risks (droughts, no national reserves)

Off-farm income - - - Alternative income options are also limited

- - High farm productivity will keep more people in agriculture

AgMIP Regional Research Teams RAPs Trends Table: SSA

BAU Pessimistic

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AgMIP Regional Research Teams RAPs Trends Table: SA Some Key Challenges

L l i l l b l li k i t l t d• Local-regional-global linkages across inter-related processes (disaggregation, counterfactuals, adaptation)

• Climate (or weather?) variability and extremes (we can model impacts, but are climate data good enough?)

• Weeds pests and diseases (new AgMIP activity )Weeds, pests and diseases (new AgMIP activity…)• Future socio-economic pathways: technology,

demographics, institutions, policy … (we need serious investment in this)

• Uncertainty & dimensionality: climate x bio-physical x economic

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Thank You!

www.agmip.org