ISI-MIP CGE workshop

Potsdam, 19 Sep 2013

Experience from AgMIP and next steps

Dr. Hermann Lotze-Campen

Hermann Lotze-Campen Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

19 Sep 2013

2

Climate impacts on maize yields in 2045(without CO2 effekc)

Müller et al., Ag.Econ. 2013, in press

Hermann Lotze-Campen Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

19 Sep 2013

3

Climate induced changes in agricultural prices by 2045

Von Lampe et al., Ag.Econ. 2013, in press

Hermann Lotze-Campen Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

19 Sep 2013

4

Issues to be clarified (or harmonized?)

Hermann Lotze-Campen Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

19 Sep 2013

5

Next steps

• Harmonized CGE comparison?

• Minimum setting for a multi-sector economic impact comparison?

• Start: Integrate 2-3 sectors (agriculture, water, (SLR))?

• No adaptation, present conditions, only initial market adjustment/crop switching?

• Regional and sectoral aggregation?

• Pre-select from impact models vs. Sampling from all model outputs?

• "Average" damage functions vs. Specific function per impact model?

• ENVISAGE: Second generation of damage functions, based on ISI-MIP data

• Reconcile with ICIS, GEM-E3?

• Timeline, next steps:

• Define regions/sectors; create baseline SSP2 (cf. AgMIP); translate impacts

• Telecon/Skype: second half of November

• Resources?