India USA Kenya Sri Lanka

Cynthia Rosenzweig John Antle

NASA GISS Oregon State University

Climate Impact on Food and Nutrition Systems: Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments

IFPRI | Washington, DC | April 11, 2016

The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments of

Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

Paris Agreement COP21

“Recognizing the

fundamental priority

of safeguarding food

security and ending

hunger, and the

particular

vulnerabilities of food

production systems

to the adverse impacts

of climate change”

AgMIP Mission

3

Near Arusha, Tanzania

Provide effective science-based agricultural

decision-making models and assessments of climate

variability and change and sustainable farming systems to

achieve local-to-global food security

4

Worldwide Science Community

2nd Global Oct 20111st Global Oct 2010

Sub-Saharan Africa #3 South Asia #3

3rd Global Oct 2012

4th Global Oct 2013 5th Global Feb 2015

Partnerships

5Some of the many partners and donor institutions involved in AgMIP

Phase 2 (2015-2020) Science Approach

6

Rosenzweig et al., 2013 AgForMet

Multi-model assessments

Track 1: Develop/Test NextGen Agricultural Systems Models

Track 2: Conduct Multi-Model Assessments for Sustainable

Farming Systems and Climate-Responsive Agriculture

AgMIP Sentinel Sites

Platinum

Gold

Silver

Climate Responsive

3 Focus Areas

7

3 Focus Areas

8

Coordinated Global and

Regional Assessments

9

and livestock

Ensemble of

models predicted

yields accurately

True under poorly

and well calibrated

conditions

Most individual

models did not

predict all sites

well across varying

environments

1

0

Asseng et al. 2013

Nature Climate Change

Ensembles better than individual models

27 wheat models

11

• Farming systems

• Transdisciplinary:

climate/biophysical/

socio-economic

• Multi-scale: field, farm,

region, global data and

models

• Multiple climate and

crop models

• Distributional results:

impacts on poverty

AgMIP Regional Integrated

Assessment – 5 Attributes

Antle et al., 2015

─ Lower latitudes are more vulnerable to climate change

─ [CO2] effects key to understanding future impacts and uncertainty

─ Models that incorporate realistic nitrogen see significantly less

gains from [CO2] effects at present-day fertilizer levels 1

2

Global Agricultural Productivity

End-of-century (2070-

2099) climate impact.

Median of 7 GGCMs

and 5 GCMs. Hatched

areas indicate model

agreement in sign

Rosenzweig et al., 2014 PNAS 111(9): 3268-3273

Uncertainty Cascade

13

Effects of climate change on agricultural prices

(S3-S6 results in 2050 relative to results without climate change in 2050)

AgMIP Global

Economic s Model

Intercomparison

10 Global Economics

Models, 2 GCMs,

2 crop models

Von Lampe et al.,

Agricultural

Economics,

2013

Climate change is projected to exert upward pressure on agricultural

prices, but with large uncertainty that is being connected to model

approaches

S3 S4 S5 S6

GCMs

GGCMs

Model uncertainty

GEM > GGCM > GCM

CGRA Core Risk and

Resilience Framing

14

• Stakeholders: yes the climate is changing, yes

there will be impacts – what should we do?

– Must evaluate mitigation and adaptation options for

current or likely future systems

• Mitigation: climate justice and impacts on the

most vulnerable

• Resilient, Sustainable Adaptation

– Reduce vulnerability to long-term change and short-

term weather variability & extremes

– Economically, environmentally & socially sustainable

Regional Assessment:

Stakeholder Perspective

15

AgMIP Regional Assessments

16

Tranformative solutions: Nkayi, Zimbabwe

17

AgMIP phase 1: Incremental change

insufficient to lift people out of povertyAgMIP phase 2: Transformative change

more drastic solutions for improving farming systems

Vulnerability, global-regional

linkages, and uncertainty

18

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30

Vu

lne

rab

ilit

y (

% h

ou

se

ho

lds

vu

lne

rab

le t

o l

os

s)

Average Economic Impact (% of farm income)

Q1- Zimbabwe Q2- Zimbabwe Q1-Senegal Q2 -Senegal

Zimbabwe:

productivity &

prices from

stakeholders &

local research

team

Senegal:

productivity &

prices from global

model and

scenario

Communication

19

• Coordinated global and regional assessments with

consistent protocols and scenarios

• Mitigation and resilient adaptation of major agricultural

systems

– extreme weather events and related economic shocks (food

prices) as well as long-term changes

• Improved food security and nutrition indicators

– beyond aggregate calorie availability

– access, utilization and stability of key nutrients at regional and

household levels

CGRA Outcomes

20

21

For protocols, up-to-date events and news,

and to join AgMIP listserve – www.agmip.org