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1 Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 (Harvey Stern)

Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 - Climate · 2016-10-27 · 2 Melbourne Forecast Rainfall Amount Verification (% Variance Explained over Preceding 12 Months) Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016

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Page 1: Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 - Climate · 2016-10-27 · 2 Melbourne Forecast Rainfall Amount Verification (% Variance Explained over Preceding 12 Months) Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016

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Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016

Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 (Harvey Stern)

Page 2: Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 - Climate · 2016-10-27 · 2 Melbourne Forecast Rainfall Amount Verification (% Variance Explained over Preceding 12 Months) Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016

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Melbourne Forecast Rainfall Amount Verification (% Variance Explained over Preceding 12 Months)

Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 (Harvey Stern)

Page 3: Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 - Climate · 2016-10-27 · 2 Melbourne Forecast Rainfall Amount Verification (% Variance Explained over Preceding 12 Months) Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016

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NCEP Sea Surface Temperatures Last Week

Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 (Harvey Stern)

Page 4: Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 - Climate · 2016-10-27 · 2 Melbourne Forecast Rainfall Amount Verification (% Variance Explained over Preceding 12 Months) Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016

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MSL Analysis/Sat Image: Thu-27-Oct-2016

Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 (Harvey Stern)

Page 5: Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 - Climate · 2016-10-27 · 2 Melbourne Forecast Rainfall Amount Verification (% Variance Explained over Preceding 12 Months) Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016

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MSL Analysis/Sat Image: Fri-28-Oct-2016

http://www.bom.gov.au

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/gsstanim.gif

Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 (Harvey Stern)

Page 6: Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 - Climate · 2016-10-27 · 2 Melbourne Forecast Rainfall Amount Verification (% Variance Explained over Preceding 12 Months) Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016

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Southern Hemisphere: Thu-27-Oct-2016

Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 (Harvey Stern)

Page 7: Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 - Climate · 2016-10-27 · 2 Melbourne Forecast Rainfall Amount Verification (% Variance Explained over Preceding 12 Months) Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016

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Rainfall Past WeekChart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 (Harvey Stern)

Page 8: Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 - Climate · 2016-10-27 · 2 Melbourne Forecast Rainfall Amount Verification (% Variance Explained over Preceding 12 Months) Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016

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Rainfall Month Thus FarChart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 (Harvey Stern)

Page 9: Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 - Climate · 2016-10-27 · 2 Melbourne Forecast Rainfall Amount Verification (% Variance Explained over Preceding 12 Months) Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016

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Rainfall Year Thus FarChart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 (Harvey Stern)

Page 10: Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 - Climate · 2016-10-27 · 2 Melbourne Forecast Rainfall Amount Verification (% Variance Explained over Preceding 12 Months) Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016

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Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 (Harvey Stern)

Page 11: Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 - Climate · 2016-10-27 · 2 Melbourne Forecast Rainfall Amount Verification (% Variance Explained over Preceding 12 Months) Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016

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Reviewing Model ForecastsMSL Pressure: Thu-27-Oct-2016

168H ACCESS

168H ECMWF168H US GFS

OBSERVED …

Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 (Harvey Stern)

Page 12: Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 - Climate · 2016-10-27 · 2 Melbourne Forecast Rainfall Amount Verification (% Variance Explained over Preceding 12 Months) Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016

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MSL Analyses : Sat-22-Oct to Thu-27-Oct

Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 (Harvey Stern)

Page 13: Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 - Climate · 2016-10-27 · 2 Melbourne Forecast Rainfall Amount Verification (% Variance Explained over Preceding 12 Months) Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016

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Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Negative IOD continues as tropical Pacific remains ENSO neutral

Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 (Harvey Stern)

Page 14: Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 - Climate · 2016-10-27 · 2 Melbourne Forecast Rainfall Amount Verification (% Variance Explained over Preceding 12 Months) Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016

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Seasonal Outlook (Numerical Model) Nov-Jan

Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 (Harvey Stern)

Page 15: Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 - Climate · 2016-10-27 · 2 Melbourne Forecast Rainfall Amount Verification (% Variance Explained over Preceding 12 Months) Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016

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Seasonal Outlook (Statistical Model)Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 (Harvey Stern)

Page 16: Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 - Climate · 2016-10-27 · 2 Melbourne Forecast Rainfall Amount Verification (% Variance Explained over Preceding 12 Months) Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016

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Jet Streams: Fri-28-Oct-2016Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 (Harvey Stern)

Page 17: Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 - Climate · 2016-10-27 · 2 Melbourne Forecast Rainfall Amount Verification (% Variance Explained over Preceding 12 Months) Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016

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MSL Pressure: Fri-28-Oct-2016Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 (Harvey Stern)

Page 18: Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 - Climate · 2016-10-27 · 2 Melbourne Forecast Rainfall Amount Verification (% Variance Explained over Preceding 12 Months) Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016

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Jet Streams: Sat-29-Oct-2016Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 (Harvey Stern)

Page 19: Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 - Climate · 2016-10-27 · 2 Melbourne Forecast Rainfall Amount Verification (% Variance Explained over Preceding 12 Months) Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016

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MSL Pressure: Sat-29-Oct-2016Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 (Harvey Stern)

Page 20: Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 - Climate · 2016-10-27 · 2 Melbourne Forecast Rainfall Amount Verification (% Variance Explained over Preceding 12 Months) Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016

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Jet Streams: Sun-30-Oct-2016Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 (Harvey Stern)

Page 21: Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 - Climate · 2016-10-27 · 2 Melbourne Forecast Rainfall Amount Verification (% Variance Explained over Preceding 12 Months) Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016

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MSL Pressure: Sun-30-Oct-2016Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 (Harvey Stern)

Page 22: Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 - Climate · 2016-10-27 · 2 Melbourne Forecast Rainfall Amount Verification (% Variance Explained over Preceding 12 Months) Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016

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Jet Streams: Mon-31-Oct-2016Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 (Harvey Stern)

Page 23: Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 - Climate · 2016-10-27 · 2 Melbourne Forecast Rainfall Amount Verification (% Variance Explained over Preceding 12 Months) Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016

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MSL Pressure: Mon-31-Oct-2016

Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 (Harvey Stern)

Page 24: Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 - Climate · 2016-10-27 · 2 Melbourne Forecast Rainfall Amount Verification (% Variance Explained over Preceding 12 Months) Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016

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Jet Streams: Tue-01-Nov-2016Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 (Harvey Stern)

Page 25: Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 - Climate · 2016-10-27 · 2 Melbourne Forecast Rainfall Amount Verification (% Variance Explained over Preceding 12 Months) Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016

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MSL Pressure: Tue-01-Nov-2016Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 (Harvey Stern)

Page 26: Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 - Climate · 2016-10-27 · 2 Melbourne Forecast Rainfall Amount Verification (% Variance Explained over Preceding 12 Months) Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016

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Jet Streams: Wed-02-Nov-2016Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 (Harvey Stern)

Page 27: Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 - Climate · 2016-10-27 · 2 Melbourne Forecast Rainfall Amount Verification (% Variance Explained over Preceding 12 Months) Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016

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MSL Pressure: Wed-02-Nov-2016Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 (Harvey Stern)

Page 28: Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 - Climate · 2016-10-27 · 2 Melbourne Forecast Rainfall Amount Verification (% Variance Explained over Preceding 12 Months) Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016

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Jet Streams: Thu-03-Nov-2016Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 (Harvey Stern)

Page 29: Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 - Climate · 2016-10-27 · 2 Melbourne Forecast Rainfall Amount Verification (% Variance Explained over Preceding 12 Months) Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016

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MSL Pressure: Thu-03-Nov-2016Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 (Harvey Stern)

Page 30: Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 - Climate · 2016-10-27 · 2 Melbourne Forecast Rainfall Amount Verification (% Variance Explained over Preceding 12 Months) Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016

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Next Week’s Model ForecastsMSL Pressure: Thu-03-Nov-2016

168H ACCESS

168H ECMWF168H US GFS

Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 (Harvey Stern)

Page 31: Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 - Climate · 2016-10-27 · 2 Melbourne Forecast Rainfall Amount Verification (% Variance Explained over Preceding 12 Months) Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016

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ECMWF MSL Pressure: Fri-04-Nov-2016Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 (Harvey Stern)

Page 32: Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 - Climate · 2016-10-27 · 2 Melbourne Forecast Rainfall Amount Verification (% Variance Explained over Preceding 12 Months) Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016

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ECMWF MSL Pressure: Sat-05-Nov-2016Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 (Harvey Stern)

Page 33: Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 - Climate · 2016-10-27 · 2 Melbourne Forecast Rainfall Amount Verification (% Variance Explained over Preceding 12 Months) Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016

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ECMWF MSL Pressure: Sun-06-Nov-2016Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 (Harvey Stern)

Page 34: Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 - Climate · 2016-10-27 · 2 Melbourne Forecast Rainfall Amount Verification (% Variance Explained over Preceding 12 Months) Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016

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Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016

Thank You

http://www.weather-climate.com/ChartDiscussion28Oct2016.pdf

Chart Discussion: Fri-28-Oct-2016 (Harvey Stern)