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Chart Discussion: Fri-15-April 2016 (Harvey Stern)

Chart Discussion: Fri 15-Apr-2016

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Chart Discussion: Fri-15-April 2016 (Harvey Stern)

Firstly - A Diversion:1912 Article on Climate Change

Rob Vertessy (Director of Meteorology, Australia), yesterday tweeted a link to this 1912 article on the greenhouse effect:

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Chart Discussion: Fri-15-April 2016 (Harvey Stern)

Some Consequences:A Century Later

Impact of climate change on Indigenous communities By Catherine Marciniak, Thursday April 14, 2016 - 16:42 EST

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/

impact-of-climate-change-on-indigenous-communities/488986

The communities of the Torres Strait Islands are among the most vulnerable to

the impacts climate change according to the United Nations. –ABC

Getano Bann, Torres Strait Islander:

“ … Your whole sense of spirituality, your whole sense of who you are is

connected there. Now imagine that island is sinking under the water and there is

nothing you can do about it. Where is your sense of identity? Where is your

connect to country? What have you become now?”

Source:

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MSL Analysis/Sat Image: Thu-14-Apr-2016

http://www.bom.gov.au

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/gsstanim.gif

Chart Discussion: Fri-15-April 2016 (Harvey Stern)

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MSL Analysis/Sat Image: Fri-15-Apr-2016

Chart Discussion: Fri-15-April 2016 (Harvey Stern)

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ECMWFUS GFS

ACCESS

Review of Model ForecastsMSL Pressure: Fri 15-Apr-2016 (+192 HR)

Chart Discussion: Fri-15-April 2016 (Harvey Stern)

Trend in Accuracy of Melbourne Forecasts12-Month ‘Running’ Accumulated % Variance Explained

To Apr-2016

Refer also to: QJRMS Stern & Davidson (2015)

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2559/abstract

Based upon a presentation to the 2016 AMOS National Conference

Maximum Temperature: A steady increase in accuracy

over the past 50+ years (at Day 1 from 50% to 90%; for

Days 2-4 from 35% to 75%; and, for Days 5-7 from 20% to

50%).

Day1-7: Based on BoM predictions.

Beyond Day-7: Based on GFS Model predictions.

Rainfall Amount: Accuracy peaked during the very wet

summer of 2010-2011 when some extreme events were

very well predicted.

Day1-7: Based on BoM predictions.

Beyond Day-7: Based on GFS Model predictions.

BoM predictions of ‘0 mm’, when made with a PoP of at

least 50%, result from ‘rounding off’ and are accordingly

‘adjusted’ : to 0.2 mm, when with a PoP of 50%, to 0.4mm,

when with a PoP of greater than 50%.

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Seasonal Outlook

Part One

Chart Discussion: Fri 15-Apr-2016

Chart Discussion: Fri-15-April 2016 (Harvey Stern)

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Sea Surface Temperature AnomaliesEl Niño declining; 50 per cent likelihood of La Niña for later in 2016

Chart Discussion: Fri-15-April 2016 (Harvey Stern)

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Verification (1989 to 2015) of the accuracy of the BoM’s

Seasonal Climate Outlooks [Rainfall]

QLD

NSW

VIC

NT

SA

WA

TAS

ALL STATES

Chart Discussion: Fri-15-April 2016 (Harvey Stern)

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Seasonal Outlook Apr ‘16 - Jun ‘16

Chart Discussion: Fri-15-April 2016 (Harvey Stern)

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Melbourne Monthly Outlook - Next 30 Days

Chart Discussion: Fri-15-April 2016 (Harvey Stern)

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Last Week

Part Two

Chart Discussion: Fri-15-April 2016 (Harvey Stern)

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MSL Analyses : Sat-09-Apr to Thu-14-Apr

Chart Discussion: Fri-15-April 2016 (Harvey Stern)

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Southern Hemisphere: Thu-14-Apr-2016

Chart Discussion: Fri-15-April 2016 (Harvey Stern)

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Next Week

Part Three

Chart Discussion: Fri-15-April 2016 (Harvey Stern)

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Jet Streams: Fri 15-Apr-2016

Chart Discussion: Fri-15-April 2016 (Harvey Stern)

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MSL Pressure: Fri 15-Apr-2016

Chart Discussion: Fri-15-April 2016 (Harvey Stern)

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Jet Streams: Sat 16-Apr-2016

Chart Discussion: Fri-15-April 2016 (Harvey Stern)

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MSL Pressure: Sat 16-Apr-2016

Chart Discussion: Fri-15-April 2016 (Harvey Stern)

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Jet Streams: Sun 17-Apr-2016

Chart Discussion: Fri-15-April 2016 (Harvey Stern)

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MSL Pressure: Sun 17-Apr-2016

Chart Discussion: Fri-15-April 2016 (Harvey Stern)

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Jet Streams: Mon 18-Apr-2016

Chart Discussion: Fri-15-April 2016 (Harvey Stern)

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MSL Pressure: Mon 18-Apr-2016

Chart Discussion: Fri-15-April 2016 (Harvey Stern)

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Jet Streams: Tue 19-Apr-2016

Chart Discussion: Fri-15-April 2016 (Harvey Stern)

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MSL Pressure: Tue 19-Apr-2016

Chart Discussion: Fri-15-April 2016 (Harvey Stern)

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Jet Streams: Wed 20-Apr-2016

Chart Discussion: Fri-15-April 2016 (Harvey Stern)

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MSL Pressure: Wed 20-Apr-2016

Chart Discussion: Fri-15-April 2016 (Harvey Stern)

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MSL Pressure: Thu 21-Apr-2016

Chart Discussion: Fri-15-April 2016 (Harvey Stern)

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MSL Pressure: Fri 22-Apr-2016

Chart Discussion: Fri-15-April 2016 (Harvey Stern)

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ECMWF

+180HR

US GFS

+180HR

ACCESS

+192 HR

Model ForecastsMSL Pressure: Fri 22-Apr-2016

Chart Discussion: Fri-15-April 2016 (Harvey Stern)

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MSL Pressure: Sat 23-Apr-2016

Chart Discussion: Fri-15-April 2016 (Harvey Stern)

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MSL Pressure: Sun 24-Apr-2016

Chart Discussion: Fri-15-April 2016 (Harvey Stern)

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Chart Discussion: Fri 15-Apr-2016

Thank You

http://www.weather-climate.com/ChartDiscussion15Apr2016.pdf

Chart Discussion: Fri-15-April 2016 (Harvey Stern)