Chapter 2 Key Issue 4

Chapter 2Key Issue 4Why might the world face an overpopulation problem?Key Issue 4Malthus on overpopulationDeclining birth ratesWorld health threatsWhy does global population growth matter?Will there soon be too many of us?Will continued population lead to:Global starvation?War?Lower quality of life?Video

VideoMalthus on OverpopulationThomas Malthus (1766-1834)English economist1st to argue worlds population increase is growing faster than development of food supplies

Malthus on OverpopulationAn Essay on the Principle of Population, 1798Population growing faster than food supplyPopulation grows geometricallyFood supply grows arithmeticallyChart created after Industrial RevolutionMoral restraint is solution to reduce NIR

Today: 1 person, 1 unit of food25 years from now: 2 persons, 2 units of food50 years from now: 4 persons, 3 units of food75 years from now: 8 persons, 4 units of food100 years from now: 16 persons, 5 units of foodNeo-MalthusiansContemporary geographers & analystsExamine Malthus theory from 1798Malthus did not predict the rapid population growth in LDCs (medical technology)World population is depleting Earths resources (food & energy)War & civil violence will increase due to limitations of food, clean air, suitable farmland and fuelMalthus's CriticsCritics analyze theory of population growth & resource depletionCritics argue that supply of resources is NOT fixed, its expandingNew technology:Humans can expand supply of food & resources: use resources more efficiently & finding new ones

Malthuss CriticsPopulation growth can stimulate economyMore people to produce more foodMore brains for new technologyImprove lifeArgue no cause & effect relationship with population growth & economic developmentPoverty, hunger & welfare are caused by unjust social & economic institutions, not population sizeMalthuss CriticsAfrican leadersArgue high population is good for countryGreater powerMore young men = larger militaryWith A PartnerOne of you will need to AGREE with MalthusOne of you will need to DISAGREE with Malthus

Write an 8-10 sentence dialogue about Malthuss theory on overpopulation

Use your Cornell Notes,Newspaper Articles & Pg.68-69 in Textbook

Declining Birth RatesGeographers agree that parts of world may run out of food resourcesDeclining Birth RatesMalthus theory not supported on evidence of past 500yrsFood production has grown faster than predictedBetter growing techniques, cultivation of more land, etcFood IS there, just not distributed evenly

Malthus over predicted population growth

Reasons for Declining Birth RatesOnly declines for 2 reasonsLower birth ratesHigher death ratesNo one wants more deathsCBR is declining on global scale, 27 to 21MDCs 15 to 10LDCs 31 to 24

Economic DevelopmentWealthier Communities More money for educationHealth care programsLowers birth ratesEconomic DevelopmentMore education = less childrenEmployment skillsEconomic controlReproductive rightsInformed choicesPrenatal careCounseling about STDsChild immunizationFamily Planning

Distribution of ContraceptivesModern contraceptives lower birth ratesLDCs have greater demand of contraceptives than its supplyNeed to be distributed more, cheaper and fasterLDCs have increase use of contraceptives (up +50%)African use of contraceptives still low (1/4 of women)Latin America: 3/4 of womenAsia 2/3 of womenCause: economics, religion, and education

Observations?

Distribution of ContraceptivesWomen not viewed as highly in AfricaLow status: less education, less rightsWomen feel more children = higher statusDistribution of ContraceptivesObjections to birth controlPolitical ReasonsAbortions against the law in some countriesReligious ReasonsCatholics, Protestants, Muslims, Hindus: prohibit BC

World Health ThreatsSub-Saharan AfricaLower NIR due to higher CDRs: AIDS

Epidemiologic TransitionCauses of death in each stage of Dem. Trans.Incidence, distribution & control of diseaseFocus on scale & connection to prevent epidemicsEpidemiologic TransitionStages 1 and 2Stage 1Main cause of death: infectious and parasitic diseasesAccidents & attacks by animals & humansMalthus natural checks on human population growthsBlack Plague 1340-1380Stage 1Probably transmitted by fleas from ratsSpread by traders/merchantsMoved from coast to inland towns & rural areas25 million Europeans died (1347-1350)Half of continents populationWiped out entire towns/villages

CholeraStage 2Pandemic: disease that occurs over wide geographic area & large populationPoor popele crowded in cities during Indus. Rev million died in New York City, 1832Caused by contaminated sewage getting into water supplyOccurred in countries reaching Stage 2 because of overcrowdingEpidemiologic TransitionStages 3 and 4Degenerative & human-created diseasesCardiovascular diseases (heart attacks)CancerVaccines Decline in infectious diseases (polio, measles) Medical advancements (cancer treatments), better diet, exercise, behavior al changesLife expectancy lengthenedEpidemiologic TransitionPossible Stage 5Reemergence of infections & parasitic diseasesCould cause higher CDRs

Reason for Stage 5Three Reasons1) evolutionPeoples resistance to drugs & insecticidesAntibiotics = new strains of viruses and bacteria

Malaria-nearly eradicated 1950s with DDT Evolution of DDT resistant mosquitos

Reason for Stage 52) povertyTuberculosis TBNearly eradicated in MDCsStill prevalent in LDCs because treatmentLong, expensive treatmentReason for Stage 53) improved travelMotor vehiclesPlanesDiseases carried world wide, exposing othersAvian Flu, pandemic: spread world wide at same timeAIDSCurrently most lethal epidemic99% of recent cases are in LDCsSub-saharan AfricaHeavily impacted2/3 of worlds HIV positive population9/10 of worlds infected childrenTop Countries: South Africa, India, Caribbean Chapter 2, Key Issue 4SummaryThe rate at which global population grew during the second half of the twentieth century was unprecedented in history. A dramatic decline in the death rate produced the increase. With death rates controlled, for the first time in history the most critical factors determining the size of the worlds population is the birth rate. Birth rates began to decline sharply during the 1990s, slowing world population growth and reducing fear of overpopulation in most regions. Scientists agree that the current rate of natural increase must be further reduced, but they disagree on the appropriate methods for achieving this goal.