Coastal Cities at Risk (CCaR): Building Adaptive Capacity for Managing

Climate Change in Coastal Megacities

Professor Anond Snidvongs, Chulalongkorn University and Southeast Asia START Regional

Research Center (SEA-START), Bangkok, Thailand

Professor Gordon McBean, CM, OOnt, FRSC, The University of Western Ontario, London, Canada

President- START International

CCaR Objectives

• To develop the knowledge base and enhance the capacity of mega-cities to successfully adapt to and when necessary cope with risks posed by the effects of climate change, including sea level rise, in the context of urban growth and development.

• Research Sub-ObjectivesA. Advance knowledge of climate change adaptation and disaster risk

reduction:• A1. Characterize climate-related hazards, vulnerability and risk;• A2. Understand decision making processes in governance and society; and• A3. Define, qualify and quantify the relationships between climate impacts, adaptation strategies and socio-

economic implications.

B. Develop strategies and methodologies for climate change adaptation:• B1. Integrate adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies and knowledge-based actions; and• B2. Construct interdisciplinary simulation models to develop, test and validate these knowledge-based

actions.

C. Enhance practitioner and academic capacity and transfer knowledge:• C1. Increase the numbers of highly-qualified people in Canada and abroad by mobilizing,• exchanging, and translating knowledge; and• C2. Transfer knowledge and capacity to a broad selection of communities and situations through

workshops, effective communications, and parallel and follow-on projects with partners.

Linking Vulnerability-Adaptation-Risk Management with knowledge generation and sharing based on

capacities, leading to Actions based on deliberation and analysis – knowledge-based actions.

CCaR Strategy• Interdisciplinary - natural, engineering, socio-political-economic

and health scientists• Snidvongs - Director, Southeast Asia START Regional Center, Director, Climate Change

Knowledge Management Center, National Science and Technology Development Agency; Technical Subcommittee of the National Committee on Climate Change Policy, Office of the Prime Minister, Assistant Professor, Department of Marine Science, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand

• McBean - Professor, Geography and Political Science, and Director of Policy Studies at the Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction, The University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada

• Adelekan - Senior Lecturer, University of Ibadan, Department of Geography

• Burton - Scientist Emeritus EC, Professor Emeritus, UToronto

• Davies - Professor , Economics and Institute Director, Economic Policy Research Institute (EPRI).

• Harford - Executive Director, ACT (Adaptation to Climate Change), SFU

• Hutanuwatr - Lecturer, Faculty of Architecture King Mongkut Institute of Technology Ladkrabang.

• Lannigan - Professor, Department of Pathology, Medical Leader, London Health Sciences Centre,

• Yulo Loyzaga - Executive Director, Manila Observatory, Quezon City,Philippines

• Marome - Faculty of Architecture and Planning, Thammasat University

• Mortsch - Senior Researcher, Impacts and Adaptation; Assistant Adjunct Professor, University of Waterloo Faculty of Environment

• Perez - Climate Change Expert, Manila Observatory

• Porio - Professor, Department of Sociology-Anthropology, Ateneo de Manila University

• Simonovic - Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Director of Engineering Studies, Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction

• Salamanca - Agriculture, Resources and Environment Unit, AIT Extension, Asian Institute of Technology

• Stewart - Head, Department of Environment and Geography, University of Manitoba

• Trisirisatayawong - Chair of PhD Program, Dept. of Survey Engineering, Chulalongkorn University

• Vicente - Program Manager, Geomatics for Environment and Development, Manila Observatory, Ateneo de Manila University,

• Wahab - Senior Lecturer/Acting Head of Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Faculty of The Social Sciences, University of Ibadan

• Whitfield - Adjunct Professor of Earth Science, SFU; Scientist Emeritus EC Canada]

CCaR Strategy• Cities - Bangkok, Lagos, Manila, Vancouver

• Range of climate-weather, socio-cultural-economic characteristics; representative of other cities; and provide enhanced research opportunities through ongoing efforts.

• Strategic Partnerships with: START Integrated Research on Disaster Risk Program others

Vancouver

LagosBangkok

Manila

UWO, UW, UT

SFU UM

Working with START and IRDR

IRDRIPO

IRDRICoE

The Canadian Team

Cities and International Team

Theme 1 - Characterization of vulnerability and risk

• Theme leaders: Adelekan and Davies with Lannigan, Loyzaga, Mortsch, Porio, Mills, Kovacs, Hutanuwatr, Wahab and Salamanca

• Personal, health, economic; and response strategies: climate change adaptation, resilience, insurance –

• How can vulnerabilities (e.g. population, infrastructure, economic activity and livelihood, health, etc.) best be determined and portrayed in a way that provides the critical information required by urban planners and policy-makers?

• How will climate change and extreme events challenge the health of the urban population, including through impacts on water and sanitation systems?

• How can appropriate adaptation measures best be identified, evaluated, and prioritized?

• A key element of this research will be the development of economic analysis to feed into theme 4 (see below).

Theme 2 - Characterization of hazards• Theme leaders: Stewart and Perez with Simonovic, Whitfield,

Snidvongs, Mortsch, Trisirisatayawong and Vicente

• Cyclones-typhoons – wind and precipitation; flooding – riverine and coastal; sea level rise

• How can risks arising from the combined effects of sea level rise, climate change, and coastal settlement be best defined and characterized at the urban level in terms useful to planners and officials?

• Extreme events must be modelled from downscaled information of climate models in a way that is site-specific and linked with the riverine, local topographic and oceanic conditions.

• What are the people and places at most risk and why; and how may the risks change with time? 

• Critical threshold approaches to understanding climate change risks and impacts (or similar) will be used, as well as the traditional use of downscaled GCM information.

Theme 3 - Understanding decision making in governance and society

• Theme leaders: Burton and Loyzaga with McBean, Snidvongs, Adelekan, Mills and Marome

• political, economic, social factors -

• The research under this Theme will be conducted in close cooperation with government institutions and civil society.

• Information developed under Themes 1, 2, and 4 will be used in an interactive and iterative manner so that Themes 1, 2, and 4 will benefits from government and civil society understandings and constraints.

• This activity will be organized as part of workshops and meetings

Physical impacts-flooding

-see level rise-Hurricanes, ……

climate scenarios

Socio-economic impacts

Health impacts

CITY

system dynamicsrisk simulator

RESILIENCY

policy

communication

ADAPTATION

Theme 4 - City System Dynamics Risk Simulator

• Theme leaders: Simonovic, Davies, Lannigan, Snidvongs, Wahab, Marome, and Vicente

• Risk assessment and modelling and provision of evidence-based scientific advice require natural and social scientists to collaborate. Modelling of risk concerns the development of holistic models incorporating natural processes, infrastructure, societal factors and behaviour. These are not separate but interacting risk factors that need to be monitored and modelled together.

Political, social and economic factors can lead to populations being in harm’s way or can limit communities’ capacities for protecting themselves.

Theme 5 - Response strategies leading to Knowledge-based Actions

• Theme leaders: Snidvongs, McBean and all the team.

• Through the research results in Themes 1-2-3, tested in Theme 4, response strategies can be developed and tested.

• Decision makers will be involved to evolve these strategies into knowledge-based action.

• Review will be made of lessons learned from major urban studies and projects in the region, and elsewhere, concerned with urban adaptation. The response strategies will focus on disaster prevention through risk reduction, although not fully omitting response and recovery strategies.– people-centred integrated early warning systems with appropriate response

strategies

– adaptation of infrastructure, planning, building codes and standards and zoning bylaws for development

Theme 6 - Knowledge Transfer and Capacity Building–

• Theme leaders: McBean, Snidvongs, Harford, and all the team.

• Knowledge transfer and capacity building will be activities from the beginning. Stakeholders will be involved and the transfer of knowledge, in both ways – from stakeholders to research team and vice-versa – will begin.

• Analysis will be carried out to identify decision-making mechanisms such as policy, regulations, practices and standards that can help to drive disaster preparation and build adaptive capacity, and recommendations made to significant decision-making and research bodies as appropriate.

• The connections - raise awareness of conditions and expert knowledge in other countries, offering unique insights into risk management mechanisms.

• Role of industry in enhancing adaptive capacity, including insurers, developers, utilities, etc.

Training opportunities

Masters 3 Department of Geography, University of Ibadan Nigeria SS&H

1 Asian Institute of Technology Thailand NS&E

1 Chulalongkorn University Thailand SS&H

PhD 2 Geography/Social Science-UWO Canada SS&H

1 Economics/Social Science-UWO Canada SS&H

1 Medicine - UWO Canada Health

2 Civil Engineering - UWO Canada NS&E

1 Environment - Waterloo Canada SS&H

1 Earth Sciences - SFU Canada NS&E

1 Geography - Environment-Manitoba Canada NS&E

1 Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Ibadan

Nigeria

2 Department of Geography, University of Ibadan Nigeria SS&H

3 Asian Institute of Technology Thailand NS&E

2 Department of Sociology-Anthropology, Ateneo de Manila University

Philippines SS&H

2 Chulalongkorn University Thailand NS&E

1 Faculty of Architecture and Planning, Thammasat University

Thailand SS&H

Ethical research issues

• Sensitivity of governments – at all levels

• Rights of individuals, state, private sector

CCaR Program outcomes

• CCaR will be a direct contribution of Canada towards the commitments of the Copenhagen Accord and the Bali Action Plan in that it will develop capacity, transfer knowledge and provide the basis for improved adaptation action plans and the assessment of financial needs.

• Enhanced adaptation and risk reduction capacity, better planned safer cities and reduced socio-economic impacts as the climate changes.

• Methods of hazard and vulnerability assessment, adaptation identification, planning and implementation - transferable techniques and strategies to many coastal cities

• Partners – and follow-on activities SFU ACT, ICLR and the provinces, START, IRDR, …

• A lasting legacy - Highly Qualified Personnel in Canada and in our country partners