Bob DouglasDirector, Water Policy CoordinationMurray-Darling Basin Commission

La Trobe University29 June 2006

Reaching interstate consensus

- Recent challenges and lessons from the MDBC

Australia’s Murray-Darling Basin

• 1.06 million sq. km

• 15% land mass

• 6.1% of Australia’s total run off

• major river system

• 2 million people

• 2 capital citiesCanberra

Sydney

Brisbane

NEW SOUTH WALES

QUEENSLAND

VICTORIA

SOUTHAUSTRALIA

Melbourne

Swan Hill

MilduraMorgan

Menindee

MenindeLakes

LakeVi ctoria

Albury

Forbes

Dubbo

Moree

Charleville

Bourke

MurrayMurrumbidgie

Lachlan

Darling Macquarie

Border

Balonne

Barwon

Warrego

Adelaide

200 km

Murray Bridge

Australia’s Murray-Darling Basin

•highly modified environment

•extremes in climatic variability

•environmentally significant

•economically and socially important

Flows are small

River Average Annual Flow

(GL)

(approx)

Amazon (Sth America) 5,518,800

Yangtze (China) 1,014,700

Yenisey/ Selenga (Russia) 567,700

Ganga (India) 525,000

Mississippi/Missouri (USA) 405,100

Nile (Africa) 88,500

Hwang Ho (China) 51,100

Murray 14,700

Ratio of maximum annual flow to minimum annual flow for selected rivers

COUNTRY RIVER RATIO BETWEEN THE MAXIMUM and the MINIMUM ANNUAL

FLOWS

BRAZIL AMAZON 1.3

SWITZERLAND RHINE 1.9

CHINA YANGTZE 2.0

SUDAN WHITE NILE 2.4

USA POTOMAC 3.9

SOUTH AFRICA ORANGE 16.9

AUSTRALIA MURRAY 15.5

AUSTRALIA HUNTER 54.3

AUSTRALIA DARLING 4705.2

MDB rainfall variability

(480mm annual

average)

Total River Murray System Inflows (including Darling River)extended droughts shown in red

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

1892 1902 1912 1922 1932 1942 1952 1962 1972 1982 1992 2002

Ann

ual I

nflo

w (

GL)

Long-term Median Inflow (9 000 GL/yr)

River Murray system showing extended drought periods

Environmentally significant

• large ecological range – alpine to rainforest to arid

• numerous reserves, national parks• 16 RAMSAR sites • world heritage convention listings• internationally important biosphere

reserves• breeding grounds for migratory birds• at least 35 endangered birds• at least 16 endangered mammals

Economic importance

• 40% of Australian agriculture – approx $14 billion

• 70% of irrigated agriculture – approx $7 billion

• Tourism• Manufacturing (food processing)• Mining• Rural Communities

Highly regulated river system•$2 billion infrastructure•resource sharing/ allocations•high levels of climatic variability•water flows•impacts of river regulation

Murray-Darling Basin Commission

• Murray-Darling Basin Agreement• 6 governments working together• Charter

"to promote and co-ordinate effective planning and management for the equitable efficient and sustainable use of the water, land and other environmental resources of the Murray-Darling Basin."

SIX GOVERNMENTSAust Gov. NSW Vic SA Qld ACT

MURRAY-DARLING BASINMINISTERIAL COUNCIL

CommunityAdvisory

Committee

MDBC Office

MURRAY-DARLING BASINCOMMISSION

River Murray Water Committee

Living Murray Committee

Natural Resources Management

Committee

Commission Strategy

Committee

Major Challenges for the MDBC

• coordination between 6 govts• sharing the water

– highly regulated system

– 5 jurisdictions

– industries, environment, communities

• managing as one catchment– synergies between strategies

– implementing The Living Murray

• major risks to shared water resources

Growth of surface water use inMurray-Darling Basin

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Year

An

nu

al D

iver

sio

n (G

L/Y

ear)

Total

Average Natural Flow toSea

Full development of existing entitlements

'88'94

Average Natural Flow to Sea

The Cap

River Murray Environmental Flows

Risks to shared water resources

• number of risk factors may reduce annual surface flows in the MDB by about 20% over the next 20 years.

• also impact on – flow regime– water quality and– water security

• impact is uncertain

• estimated reduction in water volume between 2,500GL and 5,500 GL in 20 years

• (average annual flow ~ 14,700 GL)

Risks to shared water resources

• climate change• growth in dams• increased groundwater use• reduction in return flows from

irrigation • reforestation/ land use change• bushfires

Climate change• estimated largest and most likely reduction

in flow

• increase the other risks

• potentially reduce stream flow by – 1,100 GL in 10 years (5% of annual flow)

– 3,300 GL in 50 years (15% of annual flow)

Predicted regional differences in percentage reductions in annual stream flow. Dark red indicates greatest reductions.

(Source: Jones and Brooke).

Growth in Dams

• impact on water volume second to climate change

• evidence suggesting number and size of farm dams increased significantly in last 10 years

• estimated total streamflow reduction by – 250 to 3,000 GL / year in 20 years

– 400 to 4,000 GL/ year in 50 years

• future impact depends on effectiveness of legislation or policies

Groundwater systems

• constitutes 10-15% of water used

• significant growth in groundwater use

• connectivity

• may threaten surface water availability

• consistency in defining sustainable yield#

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#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

# # #

#

#

#

Darling

Rive

r

Murrumbidgee River

Macquarie

River

Lachlan

Rive

r

Murray River

Namoi River

Culgoa

Rive

r

Lod

don

Riv

er

Yanco Creek

Ovens River

Boomi

River Dumaresq River

Turon River

Goulburn River

Peel

Riv er

Mitchell Hwy

Barrier Hwy

Hume Hwy

Cobb Hwy

Warrego Hwy

Calder Hwy

Oxley Hwy

Mid Western Hwy

Gwydir Hwy

Ouyen Hwy

New

ell

Hw

y

Moonie HwyBalonne Hwy

Castlereagh H

wy

Silv

er

City

H

wy

Dukes Hwy

Western Hwy

Carn

arvo

n H

wy

Princes Hw

y

Sunraysia Hw

y

Monaro

Hw

yOm

eo Hw

y

Landsborough Hwy

Borung Hwy

Federal Hwy

Buny

a Hw

y

Barrier Hwy

Dubbo

CowraMorgan

Forbes

Echuca

Bourke

Renmark

Mildura

Bendigo

Pinnaroo

Narrabri

Waikerie

Menindee

CANBERRA

Toowoomba

Swan Hill

St. George

Naracoorte

Cunnamulla

Bordertown

Charleville

Murray Bridge

0 100 200 300 400 50050KilometersLegend

Quaternary

QLD Basalt

Narrabri

Murray Trench

Shepparton

Cowra

Parilla

Murray Grp

Highlands/GAB

¹

Source: Groundwater Status Report 1990-2000

Reduction in return flows in irrigation

• water diverted for irrigation losses through leakage and evaporation

• flows back to river and groundwater systems if not used

• more efficient water use – reduced flows back to stream– could increase salinity

Source: BRS

Reforestation/ land use change• plantations potentially reduce water yield in a

catchment

• productive forestry areas tend to have water yield impacts

• reduction in water flow depends on plantations location and size

Increase of plantation forestry in Australia (current and trajectory) towards the 2020 Vision.

Bushfires• bushfires in 2003 affected high rainfall

areas in MDB catchment

• severe fires have long term effects

• affect water quality and reduce surface and groundwater levels

• climate change ↑ frequency and intensity of dry periods = ↑ bushfires

Variation in run-off from Mountain Ash forests. (source: Kuczera)

Estimated impact

Estimated impact of the six risks on Murray-Darling Basin surface water by 2020. Darkest colours show most likely impact (Source: MDBC)

Shared water resources

Water shared between jurisdictions (includes both groundwater and surface water)

Framework• need to consider the risks together in an

integrated and adaptive way • understand the interrelationships of the

various activities and processes and effect on water quantity and quality in the Basin

• working with the jurisdictions to address the risks requires– collaboration– building on and enhancing the actions already

being taken by individual jurisdictions– identifying where value can be added by a

more integrated and collaborative approach– ensuring there is adequate commitment and

resources within the jurisdictions

Mic

hael

Bel

l

www.mdbc.gov.au

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2 Qld

1 Independent President +

2 NSW

2 Federal

2 Vic

2 SA

1 ACT

MDBC Relationships

MDBMC Community Advisory Committee

MDB Ministerial Council

National Water Commission

MDBC partner

programs (eg.

MDFRC, CRCs)

Research bodies

LocalGovernments

Environ-mentalGroups

Industry Groups (eg, irrigation and

water businesses,

tourism)

Basin Communities

MDB Commission

Commission Boards,

Committees and working

groupsCommission Office

Other water bodies

(‘Water for Rivers’ (JGE) and Snowy

Hydro)

Indigenous groups

Partner Government Agencies for land, water &

environment

Regional catchment management organisations

Partner Governments

MDBCommission

Constructing Authorities

MDBMC Community Advisory Committee

MDB Ministerial Council

National Water Commission

MDBC partner

programs (eg.

MDFRC, CRCs)

Research bodies

LocalGovernments

Environ-mentalGroups

Industry Groups (eg, irrigation and

water businesses,

tourism)

LocalGovernments

Environ-mentalGroups

Industry Groups (eg, irrigation and

water businesses,

tourism)

Basin Communities

MDB Commission

Commission Boards,

Committees and working

groupsCommission Office

MDB Commission

Commission Boards,

Committees and working

groupsCommission Office

Other water bodies

(‘Water for Rivers’ (JGE) and Snowy

Hydro)

Indigenous groups

Partner Government Agencies for land, water &

environment

Regional catchment management organisations

Partner Governments

MDBCommission

Constructing Authorities