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Bob Douglas Director, Water Policy Coordination Murray-Darling Basin Commission La Trobe University 29 June 2006 Reaching interstate consensus - Recent challenges and lessons from the MDBC

Bob Douglas Director, Water Policy Coordination Murray-Darling Basin Commission

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La Trobe University 29 June 2006. Reaching interstate consensus - Recent challenges and lessons from the MDBC. Bob Douglas Director, Water Policy Coordination Murray-Darling Basin Commission. Australia’s Murray-Darling Basin. 1.06 million sq. km 15% land mass - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Text of Bob Douglas Director, Water Policy Coordination Murray-Darling Basin Commission

  • Bob DouglasDirector, Water Policy CoordinationMurray-Darling Basin CommissionLa Trobe University29 June 2006Reaching interstate consensus- Recent challenges and lessons from the MDBC

  • Australias Murray-Darling Basin1.06 million sq. km15% land mass6.1% of Australias total run offmajor river system2 million people2 capital cities

  • Australias Murray-Darling Basin highly modified environmentextremes in climatic variabilityenvironmentally significanteconomically and socially important

  • Flows are small

  • Ratio of maximum annual flow to minimum annual flow for selected rivers

  • MDB rainfall variability (480mm annual average)River Murray system showing extended drought periods

    Chart1

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    Rainfall

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    Rainfall (mm)

    latest

    YearRainfall

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    1903524.88

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    1906610.43

    1907436.35

    1908434.47

    1909481.9

    1910519.26

    1911521.31

    1912399.06

    1913444.35

    1914375.26

    1915331.85

    1916608.93

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    1918377.17

    1919307.11

    1920560.85

    1921616.49

    1922331.79

    1923391.33

    1924556.3

    1925436.73

    1926452.48

    1927357.75

    1928450.78

    1929344.06

    1930473.43

    1931569.25

    1932410.23

    1933501.98

    1934510.65

    1935349.73

    1936505.15

    1937378.71

    1938344.42

    1939545.92

    1940293.86

    1941452.91

    1942515.03

    1943383.8

    1944273.61

    1945399.84

    1946387.15

    1947590.25

    1948426.94

    1949540.08

    1950803.14

    1951395.77

    1952553.77

    1953430.99

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    1955654.77

    1956821.01

    1957312.98

    1958504.47

    1959506.19

    1960487.57

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    1963570.28

    1964487.48

    1965319.9

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    1967300.32

    1968508.57

    1969531.09

    1970520.85

    1971543.98

    1972371.81

    1973724.09

    1974700.11

    1975551.72

    1976566.24

    1977420.39

    1978638.54

    1979396.98

    1980377.66

    1981514.71

    1982285.07

    1983663.78

    1984581.23

    1985465.65

    1986426.43

    1987481.58

    1988589.65

    1989553.15

    1990547.24

    1991438.58

    1992570.96

    1993521.13

    1994332.75

    1995547.21

    1996557.54

    1997455.06

    1998586.4

    1999591.78

    2000582.02

    2001415.43

    2002289.09

    2003450.74

    2004478.53

    latest

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    Rainfall

    Calendar Year

    Rainfall (mm)

    systinf

    System Inflows (excluding Darling)MedianAv

    18921023281629180

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    systinf plot

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    Long-term Median Inflow (8 200 GL/yr)

    Annual Inflow (GL)

    Total River Murray System Inflows (excluding Darling River)Extended Droughts shown in Red

    Euston

    EustonMedianAv

    18921226266648645

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    6664

    Euston Plot

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    Long-term Median (6 700 GL/yr)

    Annual Flow (GL)

    Actual Flows in the River Murray at EustonExtended Droughts shown in Red

    Allinfs

    All inflows (including DarlingMedianAv

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    9038

    Allinfs plot

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    Long-term Median Inflow (9 000 GL/yr)

    Annual Inflow (GL)

    Total River Murray System Inflows (including Darling River)extended droughts shown in red

  • Environmentally significantlarge ecological range alpine to rainforest to aridnumerous reserves, national parks16 RAMSAR sites world heritage convention listingsinternationally important biosphere reservesbreeding grounds for migratory birdsat least 35 endangered birdsat least 16 endangered mammals

  • Economic importance40% of Australian agriculture approx $14 billion70% of irrigated agriculture approx $7 billion TourismManufacturing (food processing)MiningRural Communities

  • Highly regulated river system$2 billion infrastructureresource sharing/ allocationshigh levels of climatic variabilitywater flowsimpacts of river regulation

  • Murray-Darling Basin CommissionMurray-Darling Basin Agreement6 governments working togetherCharter "to promote and co-ordinate effective planning and management for the equitable efficient and sustainable use of the water, land and other environmental resources of the Murray-Darling Basin."

  • SIX GOVERNMENTSAust Gov. NSW Vic SA Qld ACTMURRAY-DARLING BASINMINISTERIAL COUNCILCommunityAdvisoryCommitteeMDBC OfficeMURRAY-DARLING BASINCOMMISSION River Murray Water CommitteeLiving Murray Committee Natural Resources Management CommitteeCommission Strategy Committee

  • Major Challenges for the MDBCcoordination between 6 govtssharing the water highly regulated system5 jurisdictionsindustries, environment, communitiesmanaging as one catchmentsynergies between strategiesimplementing The Living Murraymajor risks to shared water resources

  • Growth of surface water use inMurray-Darling Basin

    Chart1

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    8083.934523809513809

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    9213.392857142913809

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    9630.08095238113809

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    10079.61904761913809

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    10381.833333333313809

    10513.666666666713809

    10645.513809

    10777.333333333313809

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    1104113809

    11175.313846153813809

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    11443.961404461513809

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    11675.135894075813809

    11741.983406862713809

    11803.171189649313809

    11864.365978468913809

    11925.567843381813809

    11986.776855148913809

    12047.993085238913809

    12109.216605834913809

    12170.447489841913809

    12231.685810894213809

    12292.931643362113809

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    12415.446143752713809

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    12579.068637293713809

    12588.535862128213809

    12598.011220749513809

    12607.494794495413809

    12616.986665517313809

    12626.486916787813809

    Full development of existing entitlements

    '88

    '94

    Average Natural Flow to Sea

    Total

    Average Natural Flow to Sea

    Year

    Annual Diversion (GL/Year)

    Figure 1

    - Water diversions between 1988 and 1994 grew by 7.9%.

    - Under the Limited Intervention scenario there would be an 7.3% increase on 1994 levels.

    - Under the Full Development scenario the addition to 1994 levels would be 14.5%.

    &Rg:\afc\xl\watuse\&F

    Figure 1

    206379412006801192013809

    213080612487402192113809

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    4620.7083333333161827502260.708333333326195613809

    4866.4166666667176928392301.416666666727195713809

    5163.125194929302542.12528195813809

    5448.8333333333212930102782.833333333329195913809

    5724.5416666667230930803023.541666666730196013809

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    6251.9583333333266931943504.958333333334196213809

    6496.6666666667284932303765.666666666736196313809

    6739.375303032634026.37538196413809

    6970.0833333333321032854287.083333333340196513809

    7202.6253390330645410.62542196613809

    7436.16666666673570332848014.166666666744196713809

    7652.089285714337503352.38095238148617.708333333346196813809

    7868.011904761939303376.761904761949221.2548196913809

    8083.934523809541103401.142857142949824.791666666750197013809

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    8973.547619047648283523.047619047652542.555197513809

    9105.470238095249263547.428571428653046.041666666756197613809

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    9985.438095238154503791.2380952381564.8117.462198613809

    10079.61904761955003815.619047619567.9133.662.5198713809

    102505550384057222563198813809

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    12292.93164336216638.54282739.807692307755676.623951054411798.431643362113809

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    12476.714964164567944282765.769230769255678.945733395311826.714964164613809

    12537.99160098576845.83333333334282774.423076923155679.735190729311836.158267652413809

    12569.609465713568684282783.076923076955680.532542636611839.532542636613809

    12579.068637293768684282791.730769230855681.337868062911840.337868062913809

    12588.535862128268684282800.384615384655682.151246743611841.151246743613809

    12598.011220749568684282809.038461538555682.97275921111841.97275921113809

    12607.494794495468684282817.692307692355683.802486803111842.802486803113809

    12616.986665517368684282826.346153846255684.640511671111843.640511671113809

    12626.48691678786868428283555685.486916787811844.486916787813809

    Limited Intervention

    Full development of existing entitlements

    '88

    '94

    Average Natural Flow to Sea

    Total

    NSW

    Victoria

    S.A.

    Queensland

    ACT

    Limited Intervention

    Average Natural Flow to Sea

    Year

    Annual Diversion (GL/Year)

    ohead

    &Rg:\afc\xl\watuse\&F

    ohead

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    10250555038405722256313809

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    10645.55705.53959591325.564.513809

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    11041586140786104266613809

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    12170.44748984196534.83333333334282722.555675.114156508613809

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    12537.99160098576845.83333333334282774.423076923155679.735190729313809

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    12598.011220749568684282809.038461538555682.97275921113809

    12607.494794495468684282817.692307692355683.802486803113809

    12616.986665517368684282826.346153846255684.640511671113809

    12626.48691678786868428283555685.486916787813809

    Full development of existing entitlements

    '88

    '94

    Average Natural Flow to Sea

    Total

    NSW

    Victoria

    S.A.

    Queensland

    ACT

    Average Natural Flow to Sea

    Year

    Annual Diversion (GL/Year)

    Growth in Water Use in Murray-Darling Basin

    revdata

    YearBasin DiversionForecast Diversion Without Cap

    19202063

    19212130

    19222196

    19232263

    19242329

    19252396

    19262463

    19272529

    19282596

    19292662

    19302728

    19312794

    19322859

    19332923

    19342986

    19353050

    19363108

    19373156

    19383199

    19393247

    19403301

    19413350

    19423389

    19433437

    19443469

    19453517

    19463566

    19473619

    19483667

    19493736

    19503799

    19513873

    19523963

    19534096

    19544227

    19554403

    19564621

    19574866

    19585163

    19595449

    19605725

    19615991

    19626252

    19636497

    19646739

    19656970

    19667203

    19677436

    19687652

    19697868

    19708084

    19718299

    19728485

    19738664

    19748816

    19758974

    19769105

    19779213

    19789297

    19799379

    19809463

    19819547

    19829630

    19839714

    19849797

    19859891

    19869985

    198710080

    198810250

    198910382

    199010514

    199110646

    199210777

    199310909

    19941104111041

    199511175

    199611310

    199711444

    199811574

    199911675

    200011742

    200111803

    200211864

    200311926

    200411987

    200512048

    200612109

    200712170

    200812232

    200912293

    201012354

    201112415

    201212477

    201312538

    201412570

    201512579

    201612589

    201712598

    201812607

    201912617

    202012626

    Sheet1

    YearTotalNSWVictoriaS.A.QueenslandACTLimited InterventionAverage Natural Flow to Sea

    1920206379412006801206313809

    1921213080612487402213013809

    1922219681812958003219613809

    1923226383013438604226313809

    1924232984213909205232913809

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    19272529878153311008252913809

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    192926629021628122010266213809

    193027289141676128010272813809

    193127949261724134010279413809

    193228599381771140010285913809

    193329239501819144010292313809

    193429869621866148010298613809

    193530509741914152010305013809

    193631089851957156010310813809

    193731569971989160010315613809

    1938319910092016164010319913809

    1939324710212048168010324713809

    1940330110332086172010330113809

    1941335010452118176011335013809

    1942338910572140180012338913809

    1943343710692172183013343713809

    1944346910812188186014346913809

    1945351710932220189015351713809

    1946356611052253192016356613809

    1947361911172290195017361913809

    1948366711292322198018366713809

    1949373611452371201019373613809

    1950379911672408204020379913809

    1951387312042441207021387313809

    1952396312422489210022396313809

    1953409613222537214023409613809

    1954422713982587218024422713809

    1955440314952661222025440313809

    1956462116182750226126462113809

    1957486617692839230127486613809

    1958516319492930254228516313809

    1959544921293010278329544913809

    1960572523093080302430572513809

    1961599124893140326432599113809

    1962625226693194350534625213809

    1963649728493230376636649713809

    1964673930303263402638673913809

    1965697032103285428740697013809

    19667203339033064541142720313809

    19677436357033284801444743613809

    19687652375033524861846765213809

    19697868393033774922148786813809

    19708084411034014982550808413809

    19718299429034265042851829913809

    19728485444134505103252848513809

    19738664458634745153553866413809

    19748816470434995203954881613809

    19758974482835235254355897413809

    19769105492635475304656910513809

    19779213500035725355057921313809

    19789297505035965405358929713809

    19799379510036215435759937913809

    19809463515036455466260946313809

    19819547520036695496860954713809

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    19839714530037185567961971413809

    19849797535037425598561979713809

    198598915400376756210162989113809

    198699855450379156511762998513809

    19871008055003816568134631008013809

    19881025055503840572225631025013809

    19891038256023880578259641038213809

    19901051456543919585292641051413809

    19911064657063959591326651064613809

    19921077757573999597359651077713809

    19931090958094038604393661090913809

    19941104158614078610426661104113809

    19951117559134118619460671117513809

    19961131059654157627493671131013809

    19971144460174197636527681142313809

    19981157460684237645556691149113809

    19991167561204276653556691155213809

    20001174261724282662556701161313809

    20011180362244282671556711167413809

    20021186462764282679556711173313809

    20031192663284282688556721174213809

    20041198763794282697556731175113809

    20051204864314282705556741176113809

    20061210964834282714556741177013809

    20071217065354282723556751178013809

    20081223265874282731556761178913809

    20091229366394282740556771179813809

    20101235466904282748556771180813809

    20111241567424282757556781181713809

    20121247767944282766556791182713809

    20131253868464282774556801183613809

    20141257068684282783556811184013809

    20151257968684282792556811184013809

    20161258968684282800556821184113809

    20171259868684282809556831184213809

    20181260768684282818556841184313809

    20191261768684282826556851184413809

    20201262668684282835556851184413809

    &CFigure 1. Growth in Water Use in Murray-Darling Basin

    Page &P

    plot

    plot

    2063138091920

    2130138091921

    2196138091922

    2263138091923

    2329138091924

    2396138091925

    2463138091926

    2529138091927

    2596138091928

    2662138091929

    2728138091930

    2794138091931

    2859138091932

    2923138091933

    2986138091934

    3050138091935

    3108138091936

    3156138091937

    3199138091938

    3247138091939

    3301138091940

    3350138091941

    3389138091942

    3437138091943

    3469138091944

    3517138091945

    3566138091946

    3619138091947

    3667138091948

    3736138091949

    3799138091950

    3873138091951

    3963138091952

    4096138091953

    4227138091954

    4403138091955

    4620.7083333333138091956

    4866.4166666667138091957

    5163.125138091958

    5448.8333333333138091959

    5724.5416666667138091960

    5991.25138091961

    6251.9583333333138091962

    6496.6666666667138091963

    6739.375138091964

    6970.0833333333138091965

    7202.625138091966

    7436.1666666667138091967

    7652.0892857143138091968

    7868.0119047619138091969

    8083.9345238095138091970

    8298.8571428571138091971

    8484.7797619048138091972

    8663.7023809524138091973

    8815.625138091974

    8973.5476190476138091975

    9105.4702380952138091976

    9213.3928571429138091977

    9297.3154761905138091978

    9379.3380952381138091979

    9463.4857142857138091980

    9546.6333333333138091981

    9630.080952381138091982

    9713.6285714286138091983

    9797.0761904762138091984

    9891.2571428571138091985

    9985.4380952381138091986

    10079.619047619138091987

    10250138091988

    10381.8333333333138091989

    10513.6666666667138091990

    10645.5138091991

    10777.3333333333138091992

    10909.1666666667138091993

    110411380911041

    19951380911175.3138461538

    19961380911309.6342923077

    19971380911443.9614044615

    19981380911574.2952492754

    19991380911675.1358940758

    20001380911741.9834068627

    20011380911803.1711896493

    20021380911864.3659784689

    20031380911925.5678433818

    20041380911986.7768551489

    20051380912047.9930852389

    20061380912109.2166058349

    20071380912170.4474898419

    20081380912231.6858108942

    20091380912292.9316433621

    20101380912354.1850623598

    20111380912415.4461437527

    20121380912476.7149641645

    20131380912537.9916009857

    20141380912569.6094657135

    20151380912579.0686372937

    20161380912588.5358621282

    20171380912598.0112207495

    20181380912607.4947944954

    20191380912616.9866655173

    20201380912626.4869167878

    88

    94

    Average Natural Flow to Sea

    Basin Diversion

    Average Natural Flow to Sea

    Forecast Diversion Without Cap

    Year

    Annual Diversion (GL/Year)

    Growth in Water Use in Murray-Darling Basin

    BASINTRN

    ddd

    START DATE= 1920.0100 END DATE= 1994.1200

    DIVERSION DATA READ IN FOR CALIBRATION?=N

    totdivs TOTAL ANNUAL DIVERSION FROM BASIN (GL) SMOOTHED CURVES

    nswdivs NSW GROWTH IN ANNUAL DIVERSIONS - SMOOTHED CURVES(GL)

    vicdivs VICTORIA GROWTH IN ANNUAL DIVERSIONS - SMOOTHED CURVES(GL)

    sadivs STH AUST GROWTH IN ANNUAL DIVERSIONS - SMOOTHED CURVES(GL)

    qlddivs QUEENSLAND GROWTH IN ANNUAL DIVERSIONS - SMOOTHED CURVES(GL)

    actdivs A.C.T. GROWTH IN ANNUAL DIVERSIONS - SMOOTHED CURVES(GL)

    YearTotalNSWVictoriaS.A.QueenslandACTLimited InterventionNSW (Full)Vic (Full)S.A. (Full)Qld (Full)Median Natural Flow to SeaAverage Natural Flow to Sea

    19202063794120068011188313809

    19212130806124874021188313809

    19222196818129580031188313809

    19232263830134386041188313809

    19242329842139092051188313809

    19252396854143898061188313809

    192624638661486104071188313809

    192725298781533110081188313809

    192825968901581116091188313809

    1929266290216281220101188313809

    1930272891416761280101188313809

    1931279492617241340101188313809

    1932285993817711400101188313809

    1933292395018191440101188313809

    1934298696218661480101188313809

    1935305097419141520101188313809

    1936310898519571560101188313809

    1937315699719891600101188313809

    19383199100920161640101188313809

    19393247102120481680101188313809

    19403301103320861720101188313809

    19413350104521181760111188313809

    19423389105721401800121188313809

    19433437106921721830131188313809

    19443469108121881860141188313809

    19453517109322201890151188313809

    19463566110522531920161188313809

    19473619111722901950171188313809

    19483667112923221980181188313809

    19493736114523712010191188313809

    19503799116724082040201188313809

    19513873120424412070211188313809

    19523963124224892100221188313809

    19534096132225372140231188313809

    19544227139825872180241188313809

    19554403149526612220251188313809

    19564621161827502261261188313809

    19574866176928392301271188313809

    19585163194929302542281188313809

    19595449212930102783291188313809

    19605725230930803024301188313809

    19615991248931403264321188313809

    19626252266931943505341188313809

    19636497284932303766361188313809

    19646739303032634026381188313809

    19656970321032854287401188313809

    196672033390330645411421188313809

    196774363570332848014441188313809

    216196876523750335248618461188313809

    216196978683930337749221481188313809

    216197080844110340149825501188313809

    215197182994290342650428511188313809

    186197284854441345051032521188313809

    179197386644586347451535531188313809

    152197488164704349952039541188313809

    158197589744828352352543551188313809

    132197691054926354753046561188313809

    108197792135000357253550571188313809

    84197892975050359654053581188313809

    82197993795100362154357591188313809

    84198094635150364554662601188313809

    83198195475200366954968601188313809

    83198296305250369455274601188313809

    84198397145300371855679611188313809

    83198497975350374255985611188313809

    941985989154003767562101621188313809

    941986998554503791565117621188313809

    9419871008055003816568134631188313809

    17019881025055503840572225631188313809

    13219891038256023880578259641188313809

    13219901051456543919585292641188313809

    13219911064657063959591326651188313809

    13219921077757573999597359651188313809

    199310909580940386043936610909580940386043931188313809

    199411041586140786104266611041586140786104261188313809

    199511175591341186194606711175591341186194601188313809

    199611310596541576274936711310596541576274931188313809

    199711444601741976365276811423601741766365271188313809

    199811574606842376455566911491606841766455331188313809

    199911675612042766535566911552612041766535331188313809

    200011742617242826625567011613617241766625331188313809

    200111803622442826715567111674622441766715331188313809

    200211864627642826795567111733627341766795331188313809

    200311926632842826885567211742627341766885331188313809

    200411987637942826975567311751627341766975331188313809

    200512048643142827055567411761627341767055331188313809

    200612109648342827145567411770627341767145331188313809

    200712170653542827235567511780627341767235331188313809

    200812232658742827315567611789627341767315331188313809

    200912293663942827405567711798627341767405331188313809

    201012354669042827485567711808627341767485331188313809

    201112415674242827575567811817627341767575331188313809

    201212477679442827665567911827627341767665331188313809

    201312538684642827745568011836627341767745331188313809

    201412570686842827835568111840627341767775331188313809

    201512579686842827925568111840627341767775331188313809

    201612589686842828005568211841627341767775331188313809

    201712598686842828095568311842627341767775331188313809

    201812607686842828185568411843627341767775331188313809

    201912617686842828265568511844627341767775331188313809

    202012626686842828355568511844627341767775331188313809

    Best2000118456273417677753386

    Full2010126276868428283555686

    1988102505550384057222563

    1994110405861407861042665

    BASINTRN

    562.254930.264

    562.254930.264

    562.254930.264

    562.254930.264

    1300.27054930.2102

    1352.27054930.2154

    1384.27054930.2186

    1837.27058700.2262

    2560.27058700.2985

    2638.27058700.21063

    2673.27058700.21098

    2678.27108700.21098

    2678.27108700.21098

    2678.27108700.21098

    4211.27108700.22631

    4244.27108700.22664

    4246.27128700.22664

    4284.27128700.22702

    4284.27128700.22702

    4404.27128700.22822

    4421.27298700.22822

    4441.27298900.22822

    444372989022822

    444572989222822

    444572989222822

    4445.17298922.12822

    4445.17298922.12822

    4445.87298922.82822

    4445.87298922.82822

    4770.87748922.83102

    4770.87748922.83102

    4771.37748923.33102

    4771.37748923.33102

    4771.37748923.33102

    4772.67748924.63102

    7784.677439044.63102

    8250.678043644.63102

    8592.6112243644.63102

    13446.6357543645.65502

    13559.13575446616.15502

    14538.44127446616.45929

    15355.44166446616.46707

    16075.44186446616.47407

    16108.44219446616.47407

    16108.44219446616.47407

    16184.24221449064.27409

    16226.24221449064.27451

    18605.26254449064.27797

    20962.680054531144.68282

    21013.580524531148.58282

    21013.580524531148.58282

    22322.589834909148.58282

    22423.589834909249.58282

    22423.589834909249.58282

    22433.389834909259.38282

    22567.389994909259.38400

    24185.3103634909513.38400

    24403.3104924909513.38489

    24403.3104924909513.38489

    28611.6105544909513.612635

    28655.6105544909513.612679

    28701.2105544909514.212724

    28745.2105544909514.212768

    28790.2105544909514.212813

    29212.2109304909516.212857

    29212.2109304909516.212857

    29273.1109304909577.112857

    29273.1109304909577.112857

    29791.1113634909577.112942

    29791.5113634909577.512942

    29791.5113634909577.512942

    29800.9113634909586.912942

    29800.9113634909586.912942

    29800.9113634909586.912942

    30075.9116384909586.912942

    &F

    Page &P

    Total

    NSW

    Victoria

    Queensland

    MDBC

    Storage Capacity (GL)

    Figure 1. Storage Capacity in Major Dams

    paper

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

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    000000

    000000

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    000000

    000000

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    000000

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    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    000000

    &F

    Page &P

    Total

    NSW

    Victoria

    SA

    Queensland

    ACT

    Annual Diversion (GL/year)

    Figure 2. Growth in Diversions

    156.630.6

    97.435.6

    50.726.1

    49.930.2

    535.6

    584.6

    96.86.6

    188.831.6

    273.273.5

    355.6113.3

    36729.6

    28332.6

    &F

    Page &P

    Natural

    Current

    Median Monthly Flow (GL/month)

    Figure 3. Changed Flow Regime in Murrumbidgee River

    7319

    4415

    40.516.5

    49.517

    8319

    19527

    473.575.5

    622.5149.5

    604.5138.5

    380.559

    225.526.5

    126.524

    &F

    Page &P

    Natural

    Current

    Median Monthly Flow (GL/month)

    Figure 4. Changed Flow Regime in Goulburn-Broken-Campaspe Rivers

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

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    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    Best estimate

    Growth expected under either scenario

    Full development of existing entitlements

    '88

    '94

    Total

    NSW

    Victoria

    S.A.

    Queensland

    ACT

    Limited Intervention

    Year

    Annual Diversion (GL/year)

    Figure 1. Growth in Water Use in Murray-Darling Basin

    206379412006801192013809

    213080612487402192113809

    219681812958003192213809

    226383013438604192313809

    232984213909205192413809

    239685414389806192513809

    2463866148610407192613809

    2529878153311008192713809

    2596890158111609192813809

    26629021628122010192913809

    27289141676128010193013809

    27949261724134010193113809

    28599381771140010193213809

    29239501819144010193313809

    29869621866148010193413809

    30509741914152010193513809

    31089851957156010193613809

    31569971989160010193713809

    319910092016164010193813809

    324710212048168010193913809

    330110332086172010194013809

    335010452118176011194113809

    338910572140180012194213809

    343710692172183013194313809

    346910812188186014194413809

    351710932220189015194513809

    356611052253192016194613809

    361911172290195017194713809

    366711292322198018194813809

    373611452371201019194913809

    379911672408204020195013809

    387312042441207021195113809

    396312422489210022195213809

    409613222537214023195313809

    422713982587218024195413809

    440314952661222025195513809

    4620.7083333333161827502260.708333333326195613809

    4866.4166666667176928392301.416666666727195713809

    5163.125194929302542.12528195813809

    5448.8333333333212930102782.833333333329195913809

    5724.5416666667230930803023.541666666730196013809

    5991.25248931403264.2532196113809

    6251.9583333333266931943504.958333333334196213809

    6496.6666666667284932303765.666666666736196313809

    6739.375303032634026.37538196413809

    6970.0833333333321032854287.083333333340196513809

    7202.6253390330645410.62542196613809

    7436.16666666673570332848014.166666666744196713809

    7652.089285714337503352.38095238148617.708333333346196813809

    7868.011904761939303376.761904761949221.2548196913809

    8083.934523809541103401.142857142949824.791666666750197013809

    8298.857142857142903425.523809523850428.333333333351197113809

    8484.779761904844413449.904761904851031.87552197213809

    8663.702380952445863474.285714285751535.416666666753197313809

    8815.62547043498.666666666752038.958333333354197413809

    8973.547619047648283523.047619047652542.555197513809

    9105.470238095249263547.428571428653046.041666666756197613809

    9213.392857142950003571.809523809553549.583333333357197713809

    9297.315476190550503596.190476190554053.12558197813809

    9379.338095238151003620.5714285714543.156.666666666759197913809

    9463.485714285751503644.9523809524546.262.333333333360198013809

    9546.633333333352003669.3333333333549.36860198113809

    9630.08095238152503693.7142857143552.473.666666666760.3198213809

    9713.628571428653003718.0952380952555.579.333333333360.7198313809

    9797.076190476253503742.4761904762558.68561198413809

    9891.257142857154003766.8571428571561.7101.261.5198513809

    9985.438095238154503791.2380952381564.8117.462198613809

    10079.61904761955003815.619047619567.9133.662.5198713809

    102505550384057222563198813809

    10381.83333333335601.83333333333879.6666666667578.3333333333258.563.5198913809

    10513.66666666675653.66666666673919.3333333333584.666666666729264199013809

    10645.55705.53959591325.564.5199113809

    10777.33333333335757.33333333333998.6666666667597.333333333335965199213809

    10909.16666666675809.16666666674038.3333333333603.6666666667392.565.510909.166666666713809

    1104158614078610426661104113809

    11175.31384615385912.83333333334117.6666666667618.6538461538459.566.6611175.313846153813809

    11309.63429230775964.66666666674157.3333333333627.307692307749367.326611309.634292307713809

    11443.96140446156016.54197635.9615384615526.567.99986611422.961404461513809

    11574.29524927546068.33333333334236.6666666667644.615384615455668.6798646611490.628582608713809

    11675.13589407586120.16666666674276.3333333333653.269230769255669.366663306611551.802560742513809

    11741.983406862761724282661.923076923155670.060329939711612.983406862713809

    11803.17118964936223.83333333334282670.576923076955670.760933239111674.171189649313809

    11864.36597846896275.66666666674282679.230769230855671.468542571511732.699311802213809

    11925.56784338186327.54282687.884615384655672.183227997211742.067843381813809

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    Limited Intervention

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    Figure 1. Growth in Water Use in Murray-Darling Basin

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  • River Murray Environmental Flows

  • Risks to shared water resourcesnumber of risk factors may reduce annual surface flows in the MDB by about 20% over the next 20 years.also impact on flow regimewater quality andwater securityimpact is uncertainestimated reduction in water volume between 2,500GL and 5,500 GL in 20 years(average annual flow ~ 14,700 GL)

  • Risks to shared water resourcesclimate changegrowth in damsincreased groundwater usereduction in return flows from irrigation reforestation/ land use changebushfires

  • Climate changeestimated largest and most likely reduction in flowincrease the other riskspotentially reduce stream flow by 1,100 GL in 10 years (5% of annual flow)3,300 GL in 50 years (15% of annual flow)Predicted regional differences in percentage reductions in annual stream flow. Dark red indicates greatest reductions. (Source: Jones and Brooke).

  • Growth in Damsimpact on water volume second to climate changeevidence suggesting number and size of farm dams increased significantly in last 10 yearsestimated total streamflow reduction by 250 to 3,000 GL / year in 20 years 400 to 4,000 GL/ year in 50 yearsfuture impact depends on effectiveness of legislation or policies

  • Groundwater systemsconstitutes 10-15% of water usedsignificant growth in groundwater useconnectivitymay threaten surface water availabilityconsistency in defining sustainable yield

  • Reduction in return flows in irrigationwater diverted for irrigation losses through leakage and evaporationflows back to river and groundwater systems if not usedmore efficient water use reduced flows back to streamcould increase salinity

  • Reforestation/ land use changeplantations potentially reduce water yield in a catchmentproductive forestry areas tend to have water yield impacts reduction in water flow depends on plantations location and sizeIncrease of plantation forestry in Australia (current and trajectory) towards the 2020 Vision.

  • Bushfiresbushfires in 2003 affected high rainfall areas in MDB catchmentsevere fires have long term effectsaffect water quality and reduce surface and groundwater levelsclimate change frequency and intensity of dry periods = bushfiresVariation in run-off from Mountain Ash forests. (source: Kuczera)

  • Estimated impactEstimated impact of the six risks on Murray-Darling Basin surface water by 2020. Darkest colours show most likely impact (Source: MDBC)

  • Shared water resourcesWater shared between jurisdictions (includes both groundwater and surface water)

  • Frameworkneed to consider the risks together in an integrated and adaptive way understand the interrelationships of the various activities and processes and effect on water quantity and quality in the Basinworking with the jurisdictions to address the risks requirescollaborationbuilding on and enhancing the actions already being taken by individual jurisdictionsidentifying where value can be added by a more integrated and collaborative approachensuring there is adequate commitment and resources within the jurisdictions

  • www.mdbc.gov.au

  • 2 Qld1 Independent President+2 NSW2 Federal2 Vic2 SA1 ACT

  • MDBC Relationships

    Photo: Coorong/ Murray Mouth

    Welcome

    Reaching interstate consensus- recent challenges and lessons from the MDBBob DouglasDirector, Water Policy CoordinationMurray-Darling Basin Commission

    La Trobe University29 July 2006

    366V8672_RT8.jpg1.06 million sq. km15% land mass6.1 % of Australias total run off2 million peoplemajor river system24 major riversDarling 2,740 km (if include to Adelaide and tributaries, otherwise 1,390 km)Murray 2,530 km

    Mitta Mitta River (366V8579_RT8.jpg)

    Few pictures showing the varce Basin landscape mountains,

    Area somewhere around Renmark and Berri

    The Mouth of the mighty Murray..

    Australias Murray-Darling Basinhighly modified environmentextremes in climatic variabilityenvironmentally significanteconomically important

    Photo: Renmark, (366V8583_RT8 - Renmark.JPG) Credit: Arthur Mostead

    Comparing the average annual flows of Australias major river system with some major river systems on other continents (Murray is quite low)

    Source: ???? Unsure at this stage, though look about right (Tony McLeod)

    (1,000 ML = 1,000 Olympic Pools = 1 GL)

    Ganga source Ministry of Water Resources, Government of India

    Other Country Drainage areasAmazon is 6.1 million sq kilometres

    (MDB area is 1.06 million sq kilometres)Ganges is just over 1 million sq kilometreslongest continuous river system Murray and Darling combined to over 33,70 kms (Geoscience Australia)large ecological range alpine (Snowy Mtns) to rainforest (QLD) to arid (far west)numerous reserves, national parks - the national parks and other reserves cover some 7 million hectares, close to 7% of the Basin's total area. contains 16 RAMSAR sites - wetland of international importance under the Ramsar Convention eg, Coorong etcworld heritage convention listings - Willandra Lakes National Park in western New South Walesinternationally important biosphere reserves - Kosciuszko and Hattah-Kulkyne national parks (as well as the large Dangalli Conservation Reserve) breeding grounds for migratory birds at least 35 endangered birdsat least 16 endangered mammals

    Economically important40% of Australian agriculture approx $14 billion70% of irrigated agriculture Approx $7 billion TourismManufacturing (food processing)MiningRural CommunitiesHighly regulated river systemresource sharing/ allocationshigh levels of climatic variabilitywater flows impacts of river regulationEnvironmental issuesClimate change impact on the river regulation amount of water etc

    Highly regulated system, do we need to adjust its management?

    Likewise we need a whole of system approach in environmental water.

    In which we improve not just how we get water in and out of individual places but how we move water through our entire river system with a view of maximising the environmental benefit of that water.

    This will involve environmental watering plans that cover whole of system and adaptive learning this is something we will only learn from doing.

    Murray-Darling Basin CommissionCommission is enabled through the Murray-Darling Basin Agreement Follows on from the River Murray Agreement.Designed to transcend political boundaries between jurisdictions to manage the far-reaching MD river catchments as effectively as possible.6 governments working together unique organisation unincorporated joint ventureCharter "to promote and co-ordinate effective planning and management for the equitable efficient and sustainable use of the water, land and other environmental resources of the Murray-Darling Basin."

    The structure Council, Community Advisory Committee, Commission

    MDBC 100+ staff$100+ million budgetCap ex $35 mOp ex $65 m

    Not corporateNot Statutory AuthorityNot a government department

    Major ChallengesSharing the water between 5 statesAnd between industries and the environmentManaging the Basin as 1 catchmentAnd coordinating the approach of 6 governmentsAddressing major threats to the shared resources of the Basin

    Surface water use from 1920Source: Review of the Operation of the Cap: Overview Report of the Murray-Darling Basin Commission, August 2000

    established June 1995limits extractive use to water that would have been diverted under 1993/94 levels of developmentdual outcomeprotects reliability of existing water entitlementsprotects river systems from further reduction in flowQld, ACT to implementannual independent auditRiver conditions changed:Algal bloomsMurray Mouth blockedDrowned trees

    The Living Murray Initiative was a response to substantial evidence that the health of the River Murray system is in decline The decline would threaten industriescommunitiesnatural and cultural values

    Ecological objectives for six significant ecological assets of:Barmah- Millewa ForestGunbower, Koondrook-Perricoota ForestsHattah LakesChowilla Floodplain (including Lindsay-Wallpolla)Murray Mouth and Coorong and Lower LakesRiver Murray Channel

    500 GL over 5 years$500 m to address over allocation of water$150 m for Environmental Works and MeasuresRisks to shared water resourcesNumber of risk factor may reduce annual surface flows in the MDB by about 20% over the next 20 years.Also impact on flow regimewater quality andwater securityImpact is uncertainReduction in water volume between 2,500GL and 5,500 GL

    6 risks identified:Increased Groundwater useClimate changeGrowth in damsReforestation/ land use changeReduction in return flows from irrigationBushfires

    Climate changeEstimated largest and most likely reduction in flowIncreases the effect of the other risksPotentially reduce stream flow by 1,100 GL in 10 years (5% of annual flow)3,300 GL in 50 years (15% of annual flow)Growth in damsimpact on water volume second to climate changeevidence suggesting number and size of farm dams increased significantly in last 10 yearsestimated total streamflow reduction by 250 to 3,000 GL / year in 20 years 400 to 4,000 GL/ year in 50 yearsfuture impact depends on effectiveness of legislation or policies

    Groundwater systemsconstitutes 10-15% of water usedsignificant growth in groundwater useUnderstanding connectivitymay threaten surface water availabilityConsistency in defining sustainable yieldReduction in return flows in irrigationWater diverted for irrigation losses through leakage and evaporationFlows back to river and groundwater systems if not usedMore efficient water use reduced flows back to streamcould increase salinityReforestation/ land use changePlantations have social, economic and environmental benefitsPlantations potentially reduce water yield in a catchment

    The historic increase of plantation forestry in Australia (dark green) and the trajectory towards the 2020 Vision (light green). (Source: BRS).BushfiresBushfires in 2003 affected high rainfall areas in MDB catchmentSevere fires have long term effectsAffect water quality and reduce surface and groundwater levelsclimate change frequency and intensity of dry periods = bushfires

    Variation in run off from mountain ash forests in Victoria according to forest age. (after Kuczera). Estimated impactEstimated impact of the six risks on Murray-Darling Basin surface water by 2020. Darkest colours show most likely impact (Source: MDBC)

    Total reduction in streamflow 20 years = 2500 GL to 5500 GL reduction between 10-23% of average annual flow50 years = 4,500 GL to 9,000 GL represents a reduction of between 19 38 % of average annual flow

    Shared Water resourcesWater shared between jurisdictions (includes both groundwater and surface water)

    Hume dam Oct 2004.jpgC_C 0069.jpg Arthur MosteadNeed to consider the risks together in an integrated and adaptive way and understand the interrelationships of the various activities and processes and their effect on water quantity and quality in the Basin.

    Working with the jurisdictions to address the risks requiresCollaborationBuilding on and enhancing the actions already being taken by individual jurisdictions, Identifying where value can be added by a more integrated and collaborative approach, andEnsuring there is adequate commitment and resources within the jurisdictions.

    Murrumbidgee RiverCredit: Michael BellPhoto: Mildura.bmp

    http://www.mdbc.gov.au/nrm/risks_to_shared_water_resourcesFrom MDBC Strategic Plan