Bioenergy in BrazilBioenergy in BrazilJacob PalisPresident Brazilian Academy of SciencesBrazilian Academy of Sciences

[Presentation prepared by Carlos H Brito Cruz (Scientific[Presentation prepared by Carlos H Brito Cruz (Scientific Director, FAPESP), with inputs from João Jornada (President, Inmetro) and the Study Group for Biofuels at the Brazilian Academy of Sciences] the Brazilian Academy of Sciences]

102042009

B il 180 illi l 9th GNPBrazil: 180 million people, 9th GNP

B ilBrazil

202042009

E i B ilEnergy sources in Brazil50%

il 20

06

OtherCane60%

30%

40%

ourc

es, B

raz Cane

WoodHydro

40%

50%

60%

Bra

zil,

2006

cane15%

20%

30%

enew

able

so

20%

30%

sour

ces

in B 15%

10%

ergy

from

Re

0%

10%

Non Renewable Renewable

Ener

gy s

0%Renewable

EneNon-Renewable Renewable

Renewables in Brazil: 46%; World: 13%; OECD: 6%

302042009

Energy from renewable sourcese gy o e e ab e sou cesSome industrialized countries

S IEA R bl F h 2007

4

Source: IEA, Renewables Factsheet, 2007

02042009

Eth l i B ilEthanol in BrazilSugarcane in Brazil: 1532Mandated addition of Ethanol to fuel: 1929

50%

60%

r Otto

on

(%)

30%

40%

50%

Etha

nol fo

rra

nspo

rtatio

10%

20%

30%ne

rgy f

rom

Ecle

base

d tr

0%

10%

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

En cyc

5502042009

Brazil: Ethanol productionBrazil: Ethanol production1948-2007

1975: Proalcool Program2003: Flex-fuel vehicles

25

30

ers)

– 90% of new vehicle sold are Flex

Gasoline has 25% 20

25

(Bill

ion

lite

Ethanol added– No pure gasoline in

Brazil10

15

oduc

tion

(

33,000 gas+ethanol stations (out of 36,000)5

10

Etha

nol p

ro

01940 1960 1980 2000 2020

E

Gasoline is the ALTERNATIVE fuel

6

ALTERNATIVE fuel in Brazil02042009

Eth l W ld P d tiEthanol: World Production

Brazil is 2nd largest producer

Rússia

producerIn 2005:

Índia

França

– Brazil 35% (cane)– USA 35% (corn)

China

Brazilian production– Sucrose: 1/3 of cane EUA

Brasil

– Cellulose used for energy

0 4 8 12 16 20

Ethanol production, 2005 (Billion liters)gy702042009

205 GL of Ethanol will substitute 05 G o t a o subst tutefor 10% of the world’s gasoline

2004 20252004 2025World gasoline consumption 1,200 GL 1,700 GLEthanol consumption 30 GLEthanol substituting 10% gasoline 205 GL

802042009

Brazil: Gasoline and Ethanol a Gaso e a d t a oconsumption

Source: UNICA9

Source: UNICA02042009

90% f ld Fl F l90% of cars sold are Flex-Fuel

Gasoline only cars

Flex-fuel carsEthanol only cars

So rce ANFAVEA e UNICA 200810

Source: ANFAVEA e UNICA, 200802042009

Bi f l i ld h tBiofuel yield per hectare

World Watch 2006 http://www worldwatch org/system/files/EBF008 1 pdf

11

World Watch 2006, http://www.worldwatch.org/system/files/EBF008_1.pdf

02042009

E b lEnergy balance

12gy

Inpu

t

8

10

ssil

Ener

g

4

6

ut p

er F

os

0

2

ergy

Out

pu

0Sugarcane

SugarBeet

WheatStraw

Corn WoodEne

1202042009

GHG d tiGHG reduction

Doornbosch and Steenblik, OECD 2007

13

Doornbosch and Steenblik, OECD 2007

02042009

Eth l t G liEthanol costs x Gasoline

30

35Ethanol price paid to producers (2004 US$/GJ )

25

30

ine

cost

r

GJ)

p p p ( )

Rotterdam regular gasoline price (2004 US$/GJ)

15

20

nd G

asol

4 U

S$ p

er

5

10

Eth

anol

an

(in 2

004

01980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

E

14Source: Goldemberg, 200502042009

Increase in productivity c ease p oduct tythrough R&D

908.000

Agricultural and Industrial product. Total productivity

80

or lt

s/tc)

6.000

ecta

re)

+ 4% per year

60

70

tivity

(tc/

ha o

4.000

ivity

(lite

rs/h

e

50

60

Prod

uct

lt d ál l/t

2.000Prod

ucti

401975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

lts de álcool/tc

tc/hectare

01975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

1502042009

R&D: Increasing number ofR&D: Increasing number of Sugarcane varieties used in Brazil

Developed by 3 researchresearch organizations– CTC– Ridesa– IAC

Plus private companies

1984 1994 2003

– Alellyx– Canaviallis

Now Monsanto16

1984 1994 2003 Now Monsanto02042009

Bi f l tBiofuels costs

World Watch 2006 http://www worldwatch org/system/files/EBF008 1 pdf

17

World Watch 2006, http://www.worldwatch.org/system/files/EBF008_1.pdf

02042009

S t tSugarcane energy content

1 Ton of Cane = 1,2 Barrels of OilTodayToday– Sucrose → Ethanol

Sucrose

– Bagasse → burnt for heat for the mill and electricity

BagasseCellulose y

– Leaves and Stalks → burnt on the field (legislation for phasing

Leavesand Stalks the field (legislation for phasing

out)and StalksCellulose

1802042009

Sugarcane: Ethanol AND Suga ca e t a oElectricity

(Source: UNICA)19

(Source: UNICA)02042009

Brazil: 1% of arable land displacesBrazil: 1% of arable land displaces 30%+ of the gasoline

20

Source: UNICA

02042009

Sugarcane for ethanol uses 0,5% Suga ca e o et a o uses 0,5%of total area

Total country area (851 Mha 100%)

Small bioenergy footprint

Total country area (851 Mha, 100%)

Rural properties area (355 Mha, 42%)

A d f f th l (3 6

Area used for agriculture (76,7 Mha, 9%)

Area used for sugarcane for ethanol (3,6Mha, 0,5%)

Source: Horta Nogueira e Seabra (2008)21

Source: Horta Nogueira e Seabra (2008)02042009

2050: Available land for biofuels2050: Available land for biofuels(Doornbosch and Steenblik, 2007)

Land (in Gha) North Am.South & 

Centr. Am.Europe & Russia Africa Asia Oceania World

Total land surface 2,1 2,0 2,3 3,0 3,1 0,9 13,401 Apt for Rainfed cultivation 0,4 0,9 0,5 0,9 0,5 0,1 3,302 Apt and Under forest 0,1 0,3 0,1 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,803 Apt, already in use 0,2 0,1 0,2 0,2 0,6 0,1 1,504 Necessary for food, housing and infrastructure until 2030/50

0,0 0,1 0,0 0,1 0,1 0,0 0,30

( )5 Available (Gross) [5=1‐2‐3‐4] 0,00 0,25 0,08 0,44 ‐0,07 0,04 0,746 % for grassland 0% 0% 50% 60% n/a 0%7 Additional land potentially available (7)=(5)x(1‐% for grassland)

0,00 0,25 0,04 0,18 ‐0,07 0,04 0,44

a Most studies assume that only a small fraction of additional land is needed to feed the world’s growing population— from 6 5 billion people ata. Most studies assume that only a small fraction of additional land is needed to feed the world s growing population   from 6.5 billion people at present to 9 billion people in 2050 — and that most of the increase in food requirements will be met by an increase in agricultural productivity.6 Here it is assumed that 0.2 Gha is needed for additional food production (based on Fisher and Schrattenholzer, 2001 where a yearly increase in agricultural productivity of 1.1% is assumed); the remainder (roughly 0.1 Gha) is needed for additional housing and infrastructure.b. A negative number is shown here as more land is cultivated than potentially available for rain‐fed cultivation because of irrigation. The negative land available has not been rounded to zero because food imports are likely to be needed from other region with implications on their land useavailable has not been rounded to zero because food imports are likely to be needed from other region with implications on their land use.c. Numbers in this column don’t add up because of rounding.

0.25GHa @ 10kL/Ha.yr → 2,500GL /yr (in 2005: 40 GL)22

0.25GHa @ 10kL/Ha.yr → 2,500GL /yr (in 2005: 40 GL)02042009

R f titiReference quantitiesArea available in South & Central America by 2050: 0,25 GhaArea available in Africa by 2050: 0,18 Gha(both according to Doornbosch & Steenblik OECD 2007)(both according to Doornbosch & Steenblik, OECD, 2007)

0.25GHa @ 10kL/Ha.yr → 2,500 GL /yr (in 2005: 40 GL)2004 2050

World gasoline consumption (1) 1,200 GL 2,200 GL

@ y y ( )

Ethanol consumption 30 GLEthanol substituting 10% gasoline 265 GLEthanol substituting 100% gasoline 2 650 GLEthanol substituting 100% gasoline 2,650 GL(1) Source: National Energy Information Center (NEIC)

Potential for substituting for 100% of the world gasoline demand considering only the available area in South and Central America (Africa has another 0,18 Gha)

2302042009

( , )

Wh d B il l t S ?Where does Brazil plant Sugarcane?

Not in the AmazonB t l d fBest land for cane:– Northeast coast

• Oldest (XVI century)

– Southeast 55 ton/ha • highest productivity

– Centralwest

55 ton/ha

• main expansion area82 ton/ha

2402042009

St d dStandards

2502042009

High quality measurement g qua ty easu e e tstandards

Inmetro (Brazil) and NIST (EUA) exchange CRMs – Ethanol (Inmetro); Soy Biodiesel (NIST) for validation(Inmetro); Soy Biodiesel (NIST) for validationProject BIOREMA – CRMs with UE

2602042009

C l iConclusion

Brazil created a large and successful experiment on planting fuel since 1975Sugarcane has special characteristics– Productivity – GHG reductionGHG reduction– Favorable energy balance

Brazilian strategy counts on many other countries producing Ethanol from ivarious sources

– Technology transfer– Cooperative R&Dp

Most probable producers: Latin America and Africa– Access to energy for developing countries

2702042009

I tit ti l ddInstitutional addresses

The Brazilian Academy of Sciences: http://www.abc.org.brThe São Paulo State Research Foundation, FAPESP: http://www.fapesp.br/english/FAPESP’s Bioenergy Research Program (BIOEN): http://bioenfapesp org/FAPESP s Bioenergy Research Program (BIOEN): http://bioenfapesp.org/Brazilian Institute for Metrology: http://www.inmetro.gov.br/english/

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3002042009