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Rotterdam Climate Initiative
BIOENERGY IN BRAZILCONSUMPTION AND TRADE
Jose Roberto MoreiraBrazilian Reference Center in
Biomass/IEE/Univ. of Sao PauloHotel Renaissance
São Paulo, May 8, 2012
Ethanol production for different scenarios – 2008-2017
* Agricultural prices expressed in terms of the energy value of liquid fuels – ethanol or biodiesel – produced. Values are indicative and do not reflect local price or operating cost differentials nor revenues from co-generation or by-products such as dried distillers grains. Source: IEA, November 2011
Sugar cane mills geographycal profile in Brazil
Potential bioelectricity from sugar cane – Brazil 2008-2020
Law 11.097/2005: Determine minimum percent blend of biodiesel in diesel and monitors the introduction of the new fuel in the market
Allowed Compulsory CompulsoryReality Allowed 2008 = 3% 2009=4% 2010=5%
Figure 16 - Biodiesel Legislation and Reality
Biodiesel Production in Brazil (Billions of litres per year
•Preliminary data ** Projection•Source: ANP and UBRABIO
Forecasted biodiesel consumption – Brazil 2008-2017
Source: EPE, 2008
Source: Who is winning the clean energy race, 2011. The Clean Energy Foundation and the Pew Center
Source: Who is winning the clean energy race, 2011. The Clean Energy Foundation and the Pew Center
•Surprising enough is the volume of investments in the oil sector•Such investments surpass electricity investments; very unusual at globe level
1955
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1987
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1995
1999
2003
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2011
2015
2019
2023
2027
2031
2035
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2043
2047
2051
2055
2059
2063
2067
0
500
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2000
2500
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
Present oil reserves without pre-salt, Expected oil reserves with pre-salt, Oil consumption, and Ethanol oil displacement in High and Low Scenarios
Producing Fields (Million bbl) Peak= 768 Mbbl/Br Reserve=25 billion Oil Consumption BP+trend 1970/2009
Total EOR Pre-salt+Producing Fields Total OilProduction Mbbl
Ethanol Production 5 yrs avg. BEN (Million bbl/y) Low scenario Liquid Fuel+ Electricity Low Scenario
Ethanol Production BEN/Trend 2003/10 High Scenario Liquid Fuel+ Electricity High scenarioYear
Eth
ano
l E
lect
. O
il P
rod
uct
ion
an
d C
on
sum
pti
on
(m
illi
on
bb
l)
Dai
ly L
iqu
id F
uel
Pro
du
ctio
n a
nd
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n (
mil
lio
n b
bl)
Consumption
EUR=25 Billion
REAL DATA
TOTAL 65 Bil-lion
Ethanol+Elect.High Sce-nario
TOTAL 71 Bil-lion
ImportationProduction
Consumption
FORECAST
Total=25 Billion
REAL DATA
Ethanol Elect.. Low Scenario
Source: Datagro 2011, No 11P
EVOLUTION OF AUTO AND LIGHT COMMERCIAL FLEETS IN BRAZIL (OTTO CYCLE)
Mill
ion
of u
nits
BEST(BioEthanol for Sustainable Transport)
Venues: Rio de Janeiro, RJ; and São Paulo, SP
The City of Sao Paulo Receives the First Bus Fleet of Diesel Engine Busses Running on Ethanol May
25th, 2011
60 busses already sold10 busses in operation by May 27, 201150 busses in operation by June 30, 2011
Source: CENBIO 2011
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
2,0 3,5 5,0 7,0 8,0
Euro I
Euro II
Euro III
Emission Limits for diesel enginesN
Ox
(g/k
Wh)
MP (g/kWh)
Euro V Euro IV
Third engine generationSecond engine
generationSource:SEKAB
Source: EPA, 2010
Sugar Cane Bagasse
Wood Wastes from Pulp & Paper Industry