Aviation Weather Hazards Nowcasting Based on Remote ... · 2(30) In 2017 has been started the new project in Pulkovo (ULLI) for investigation of the Aviation Weather Hazards Nowcasting

Aviation Weather Hazards Nowcasting Based on Remote Temperature Sensing

Data

Mikhail Kanevsky*, Evgeny Miller**, Nikolay Baranov*** *International Aeronavigation Systems, [email protected],

**RPO ATTEX, [email protected],

***Dorodnicyn Computing Centre, FRC CSC RAS

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In 2017 has been started the new project

in Pulkovo (ULLI) for investigation of the

Aviation Weather Hazards Nowcasting

Based on Remote Temperature Sensing

Data

Aviation Weather Hazards Nowcasting Based on Remote Temperature Sensing Data .

San Francisco, USA, 2014

Enhancing the short-term forecasting system for the weather phenomena and conditions with the greatest impact

on aviation operations represents an important endeavor for improvement of the air navigation meteorological

support which contributes to the safe, efficient and regular aircraft flights.

One way of developing nowcasting systems is to integrate the existing observation data and mesoscale high-

resolution models for the tasks of airport forecasting to support air traffic control during take-off/approach and

airport service operations. This report describes a nowcasting subsystem based on an automated remote

temperature sensing and nowcasting complex using the microwave profiler (MTP-5).

Aviation Weather Hazards Nowcasting Based on Remote Temperature Sensing Data ensures automated temperature observations in the boundary layer of the atmosphere, as well as provision and visualization of observation data up to 10 km and automatic calculations for forecasts of the current weather phenomena and conditions at the airport, such as:

1) Fog probability, 2) Low altitude wind shear and wake vortex flight safety, 3) Probability of freezing precipitation, 4) Icing.

3

1. Introduction

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5) MultiChannel padiometer

No profile without

radiosondes (pos.1)

MWRnet - An International Network of Ground-based Microwave Radiometers

https://www.vaisala.com/sites/default/files/documents/Accuracy-Matters-in-

Radiosonde-Measurements-White-Paper-B211548EN.pdf

Comparison of radiosonde sounding (black) and

NWP model (red) profiles of temperature (solid lines)

1) Radiosonde Is limited for using in airport

(not continuous)

2) MetroTower

Is impossible in airport

3) Tethered Balloons

Unavailable at

airports

4) RASS is depend on weather

condition and there are no data on

the first 100m

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24/7

Boulder 1996-7 300м Obninsk 1999 300м

Tsukuba 1994-5 и 2005 213м

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25 years experience

Parma Italy 1995,1997 Zurich Swiss 2004 Pert Australia 2009 Rome Italy 2009 Begishevo Russia 2008 Bolzano Italy 2011

JFK USA 2012 Tomsk Russia 2012 Sochi Russia 2014 Tolmachevo 2014

SFO USA 2015 LAX USA 2015 IANS 2015

NASA Memphis IA 2013

Pulkovo (ULLI) 2017

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The blending technology has been developed and

implemented for aviation application through utilizing

high-resolution weather forecast models and direct

measurements in PBL by using MTP-5 data each 5

minutes.

This technology ensures on-line temperature

profiling with the data measurement height of up to

10 km and complete monitoring of the temperature

dynamics in the troposphere. Moreover, the users

have an opportunity to reliably assess the altitudes of

typical isotherms that can be effectively used to

identify meteorological phenomena in radar

observations.

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St-Petersburg Airport «Pulkovo» (ULLI) 2017

Example of the temperature field up to 10 km (with a part up to 1 km) resulting from blending MTP-5 data and

GFS data measured on April 29-30, 2017, when advection was present, and, as a result, fog has been observed.

1) Fog probability,

2) Low altitude wind shear and wake vortex flight safety,

3) Probability of freezing precipitation,

4) Icing.

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The temperature profile determines the vertical transport of air masses, as well as the condensation of atmospheric water vapor.

Knowledge of the temperature profile dynamics can provides early warning of developing and disappearance of fogs.

The method based on MTP-5 technology is the only remote method that works reliably in conditions of fog.

Parma Italy 1995,1997 Rome Italy 2009 Bolzano Italy 2011

SFO USA 2015 LAX USA 2015

Diagram and photo of the MTP-5 installation in Pulkovo (ULLI) airport in March 17, 2017.

To solve task of nowcasting, numerical models data (GFS) and meteorological data from Pulkovo

meteorological station (METAR) have been applied. Data from the standard set of sensors (air

temperature, humidity, wind, and etc.) provided by НМР155D (as a part of «KRAMS-4») have been

used for calculations.

The final solution for nowcasting taking account all sets of data has been implemented through using

specialized software developed together with IANS Concern (http://www.ians.aero/)

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Temperature profiles for minimum visibility in fog 06.04-07.04 Vis<0.3km|25.05 2:00 Vis<0.1km|11.06 1:30 Vis<0.8km

The analysis carried out on the available data series (16 days with events) showed that the short-term fog

forecasting problem can be successfully solved through the complex using set of observation data:

- the dynamics of the dewpoint depression (trend to and/or stand at a level close to 0),

- data on temperature profiles sounding of PBL (dT[0-200m], dTinversion and height of the inversion base),

- wind speed on 2m.

By using these data set we have:

- justifiability of up to 98%,

- forecasting on a short term period of up to 5-9 hours for fog formation,

- for dissipations the forecasting period was up to 2 hours.

To ensure high justifiability of algorithms for the short-term fog forecasting, it is necessary to adapt the

criterion parameters on the all-season data set.

To applying FSI with continues data (T-T850) has been changed to (T-T200) and W850 to Ft (2m).

200m

50m

1) Fog probability,



4) Icing.

WHY WE NEED TEMPERATURE PROFILE for Wind shear?

Christian Pagé D. Cimini et al. (eds.), Integrated Ground-Based Observing Systems

MTP-5 has been developed for temperature inversion measurements!

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Sochi. RU. 2014

0 30 60 90 z0

25

50

75

100

125 y

Profile 1

Profile 2

Profile 3

Profile 4

Adiabatic

Wake turbulence is turbulence that forms behind an aircraft as it passes through the air.

В747-800, 100sec, Profile 1 next is B737-300 (wings 28.88m, speed 77m/sec). Wind 0m/s http://ians.aero/en/

Wake vortex safety system and Wind shear

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8 10 12 14 16 T0

200

400

600

800

1000 h

Profile 1

Profile 2

Profile 3

Profile 4

Fast-time wake vortex models typically require inputs of an estimate of the vertical profiles of the wind, potential temperature, and ambient turbulence (Greene, 1986; Robins and Delisi, 2002; Proctor, 2009; Ahmad et al., 2014).

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San Francisco - Airport (SFO)‎. USA. 2015

1) Fog probability,



4) Icing.

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11.11.2016 16:35 Moscow

10.11.2016 16:20 GMT

By using radars data we can the expected rainfall amount and intensity. Moreover, we can see how fast is coming to us these precipitation.

dTo=To_isot-Tinv

1) Fog probability,



4) Icing.

Icing (heights hazardous for icing )

…While the icing can occur over a wide

range of negative temperatures, the

probability is maximum in a relatively

narrow range of temperatures and

relative humidity (-5 ... -10°C and>

85% respectively). Outside these

intervals icing probability decreases

rapidly.

(http://method.hydromet.ru/publ/sb/sb3

7/sh_ice.pdf)

http://method.hydromet.ru/publ/sb/sb37/sh_ice.pdf


• Icing (+ weather forecast + meteorological data)

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INVISIBLE WATER «Orlovka» 2015/01/22 09:43

Icing (heights hazardous for icing )

…While the icing can occur over a wide range of

negative temperatures, the probability is maximum in a

relatively narrow range of temperatures and relative

humidity (-5 ... -10°C and> 85% respectively). Outside

these intervals icing probability decreases rapidly.

(http://method.hydromet.ru/publ/sb/sb37/sh_ice.pdf)


Complex is based on 3 microwave

radiometric receivers with

operating frequencies:

20.7, 31.4 and 56,7 GHz.

The complex has following

features:

1 - Temperature profile 1-10 km,

2 - Water vapor content,

3 - Liquid water content,

4 - Humidity profile.

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Conclusions.

• The first step shown the good potential of the blending data NWP, in-situ data and state-of-

the-art remote sensing of the temperature stratification in solving task of the Aviation

Weather Hazards Nowcasting;

• By using the tested algorithms have been solved problem with limitation NWP in accuracy

in PBL and with height for temperature profiling at 56.6GHz (1 km usually),

• On the base of such implementation the NEW algorithms have been tested for Nowcasting:

1) Fog probability,



4) In-flight Icing

• To confirm and develop these results the work will be continue with development of user-

friendly software, hardware and testing in local airports.

to‎be‎continue…

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Thank you

I wanted to thank everybody who is involved in this project. Merci beaucoup!

Evgeny Miller, Mikhail Kanevsky, Nikolay Baranov

Documents

Aviation Weather Hazards Nowcasting Based on Remote ... · 2(30) In 2017 has been started the new project in Pulkovo (ULLI) for investigation of the Aviation Weather Hazards Nowcasting